changed. And so the oil bonanza fueled one of the biggest
ica Center and its Strategic Foresight Initiative and the
expansions of social programs in living memory.
Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
All that time, the “fracking” revolution that turned the United States into the world’s leading oil producer was
I trust the insights contained in these pages – to my
already underway. The global energy market was trans-
knowledge the first region-wide prospective study of its
formed, as previously inaccessible oil and natural gas
kind – will provoke fresh thinking among those working
reserves became commercially viable.
on development issues, and that it they will also inspire those responsible for guiding our countries to the future.
Not surprisingly, when crude prices crashed below $50 a
By looking further ahead, understanding the risks and
barrel in 2016, many oil exporting countries were caught
uncertainties, and spotting potential problems and op-
unprepared. Instability ensued as governments were
portunities, we may yet make smarter decisions that will
forced to wrestle with the realities of dwindling revenues.
help us become a more prosperous and happier region.
And today we’re once again in the familiar position of having to tighten our fiscal belt during a sharp slowdown. I am convinced that we can do a better job of anticipating and preparing for such disruptions. And over the past few years, as president of the Inter-American Development Bank, I have sought to introduce prospective thinking into our work with the region’s governments. We started on a modest scale, holding in-house events where we encouraged our staff to think out loud about the prospects for our borrowing member countries in their respective fields of expertise, looking at both opportunities and risks. We quickly concluded that change was accelerating in almost every one of the areas where we work, in ways that could have dramatic consequences in less than a decade. Next, we started to reach out to our clients, inviting them to take part in simulation exercises where we would jointly assess possible future scenarios, taking into account political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and even security aspects. Our goal in these exercises was not necessarily to come up with actionable plans, but rather to start a sustained conversation about the big trends, disruptions and opportunities that will shape our region for decades to come. Recognizing that there was a strong demand for such prospective analysis, the IDB decided to partner with other organizations specialized in that discipline. This report is the result of such collaboration, in this case with the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin Amer-