Number 20, July 2011 | www.assystcomplexity.eu | www.cssociety.org ! !
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sing tools and concepts of complexity science to address business need is a central theme for the ASSYST co-ordination action, and this month we launch the first Newsletter directed at this important
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Over the past year we have run a number of successful Intelligence in London, a scientific meeting on Cloud
portfolio of events to include Industry Roundtables on topics that have significance for business and industry.
In this issue of the Newsletter Iqbal Adjali, Head of the Mathematics & Informatics Group at Unilever!s Research and Development, outlines their utilisation of complexity science to develop valuable insights for the business. If you would like to participate in our activities or share your organisation!s experience of complex systems with our readers please contact Yasmin Merali at Yasmin.Merali@wbs.ac.uk.
Special number guest editor, Yasmin Merali
Unilever Leads Complex Systems Research in Business by Iqbal Adjali
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he Mathematics & Informatics group in Unilever R&D, based in Colworth UK, applies advances in complex systems research to understand consumer needs and meet them through product and service innovations. The group, which was set up seven years ago, works closely with leading academic and industrial partners to develop new modelling approaches and techniques, requiring the integration of advanced mathematical models and datamining algorithms with key expertise in biology, psychology and economics. The group, led by Dr Iqbal Adjali, is truly inter-disciplinary and consists of 10 scientists trained in mathematics, biology and the social sciences. Their aim is to develop advanced consumer behaviour models and generate new biological insights by making better use of shopping and transaction data and complex biological datasets.
algorithm in live conditions. Use by "LeShop! of the tool (still ongoing) has resulted in a significant increase in average basket spend.
The group is involved in a long-term research programme developing new approaches inspired from complex systems tools and techniques, such as agent based simulations, network modelling and non-linear dynamics, and exploring their applications in close collaboration with other R&D teams and Unilever functions such as sales, marketing and supply chain.
Another example of the group!s work involves the use of agent based simulations that take advantage of individual shopper data to develop more realistic models of consumer behaviour. ABM has many advantages over A key example of the group!s work is the "Unilever traditional approaches as it allows consumer Recommender Algorithm!. This is a proprietary Unilever heterogeneity, social interactions and market tool based on adaptive datamining algorithms specially discontinuities to be taken into account and explicitly developed to work with large sparse data sets in the modelled. The Unilever team has developed an agentgrocery domain. The tool was highlighted in the Grocer based simulation tool to explore key business questions Magazine such as effects of dynamic pricing strategies and impact of (http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/articles.aspx?page=articles&I different marketing strategies, in partnership with the sales D=202004, July 2009 issue) and is used in conjunction and marketing groups. The tool is based on new agentwith on-line grocery shopping sites. Of particular mention based methodologies that include, amongst other things, is the Swiss online grocery retailer "LeShop!, which has the identification of unobserved network effects in been a long-term partner of Unilever in the development, consumer markets that capture phenomena such word-oftrial and validation of the recommender technology. The mouth communications. Other areas where ABM is seeing approach needed for developing the algorithm is more an increase in interest is in social psychology and biology. complex than say, Amazon's and required a lot of testing For example, the Unilever team is collaborating with and empirical validation, because shopper behaviour in leading external partners to develop a psychologicallygrocery is more complex due to the huge variety of product validated model that analyses and predicts the spread of categories on offer, the lack of explicit feedback on behaviours in online and offline consumer networks. preferences and the fact shoppers frequently buy many of Another example is developing an agent-based biological the same items week in, week out. As the shopper adds model of the human cell to model the complex interactions items to their electronic shopping trolley the Recommender between cells and their environment. Some of the team!s Algorithm analyses the products already in the trolley and ABM-driven work has been presented at key international then makes non-obvious but appropriate conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. recommendations to the shopper of other products they Moving forward, the Unilever Mathematics & Informatics might also wish to purchase. For example, the shopper group will continue to work with key academic and may have already placed fish, bread and a breakfast industrial experts as well as business partners for pushing cereal in their trolley and then the Recommender the boundaries in the applications of complex systems Algorithm will then recommend a specific anti-perspirant. research in the real world. These brand-agnostic recommendations are based on huge datasets of information provided by the retailer, as For more information please contact Iqbal Adjali at well as other sources, and produced by the adaptive iqbal.adjali@unilever.com or iqbal.adjali@physics.org
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Sage Handbook of Complexity and Management
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omplexity is one of the fastest growing topics of research in the natural and social sciences. A new, trans-disciplinary and paradigm-shifting science of complexity is emerging linking diverse disciplines and challenging traditional disciplinary assumptions and boundaries. In the field of management and organization studies, the application of complexity science has grown dramatically over the past two decades: numerous scholarly as well as practitioner- targeted books have been written; many special issues of journals have been published; several new specialized journals have been created; and articles applying complexity science to organizational phenomena are now regularly appearing in leading management journals. Additionally, a complexity perspective is increasingly being taken up by practitioners in business, government and non-government organizations.
The Handbook is edited by Emeritus Professor Peter Allen, Professor Steve Maguire, McGill University, Montreal; and Professor Bill McKelvey, UCLA, and is organized in three parts: Part 1 introduces complexity science and its implications for the foundations of scientific knowledge, Part 2 presents the numerous ways in which complexity science models and tools, as well as complexity thinking, are being applied to management and organizational phenomena and the insights gained as a result, and Part 3 highlights how complexity science is transforming various non-management fields and, in so doing, creating exciting interfaces for bridging between management and related disciplines. Complexity science provides firm foundations for organization studies, with robust philosophical underpinnings, concepts and methods; innovative applications which shed light on important organizational phenomena; and promising interfaces for launching fruitful conversations between organizational and other types of scholars.
These exciting developments â&#x20AC;&#x201C; their cumulative effect and the range of management sub-disciplines motivated the SAGE Handbook of Complexity and Management.
3rd Annual Complexity in Business Conference Friday, October 14, 2011 â&#x20AC;˘ Washington, DC
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he 3rd Annual Complexity in Business Conference endeavors to be the premier meeting for the intersection of Complex Systems and Business. The conference will be a one-day event and will include talks by thought leaders and an audience blend of academics and industry practitioners. We are very excited to announce that this year we will be having a concurrent track during the conference and will be accepting abstract submissions from the public. We are looking forward to a lively set of interactions among a very distinguished group of researchers and business leaders. This event is sponsored by the Center for Complexity in Business at the Robert H. Smith School of Business and the University of Maryland. Website: http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/ccb/conference/2011/
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Reading snippets
Understanding opinions. A cognitive and formal account The study of opinions, their formation and change, is one of the defining topics addressed by social psychology, but in recent years other disciplines, as computer science and complexity, have addressed this challenge. Despite the flourishing of different models and theories in both fields, several key questions still remain unanswered. The aim of this paper is to challenge the current theories on opinion by putting forward a cognitively grounded model where opinions are described as specific mental representations whose main properties are put forward. A comparison with reputation will be also presented. In arXiv http://arxiv.org/abs/1106.4221
blockmodel, where the probability of observing a link between two nodes depends on their current membership vectors, while those membership vectors themselves evolve in the presence of a link between the nodes. In arXiv http://arxiv.org/abs/1106.2788
Epidemiology and social networks Possibly we will be able to develop a “social vaccine” that may spread through social networks to prevent and reduce the risk of developing noncommunicable diseases. In Cirugía Y Cirujanos http://www.nietoeditores.com.mx/cirugia-y-cirujanos
Interactive Evolution of Camouflage
This article presents an abstract computation model of the evolution of camouflage in nature. The 2D model uses To flourish in the new data-intensive environment of 21st evolved textures for prey, a background texture century science, we need to evolve new skills. These can representing theenvironment, and a visual predator. A be expressed in terms of the systemized framework that human observer, acting as the predator, is shown formed the basis of mediaeval education - the trivium a cohort of 10 evolved textures overlaid on the background (logic, grammar, and rhetoric) and quadrivium (arithmetic, texture. The observer clicks on the five most conspicuous geometry, music, and astronomy). However, rather than prey to remove (“eat”) them. These lower-fitness textures focusing on number, data is the new keystone. We need to are removed from the population and replaced with newly understand what rules it obeys, how it is symbolized and bred textures. Biological morphogenesis is represented in communicated and what its relationship to physical space this model by procedural texture synthesis. Nested and time is. In this paper, we will review this understanding expressions of generators and operators form a texture in terms of the technologies and processes that it requires. description language. Natural evolution is represented We contend that, at least, an appreciation of all these by genetic programming (GP), a variant of the genetic aspects is crucial to enable us to extract scientific algorithm. GP searches the space of texture description information and knowledge from the data sets which programs for those that appear least conspicuous to the threaten to engulf and overwhelm us. predator.
The Art of Data Science
In arXiv http://arxiv.org/abs/1106.3305
In Artificial Life http://assystcomplexity.eu/short/?id=125
On Democracy in Peer-to-Peer systems
Irreducibility and emergence in complex systems and the quest for alternative insights
We propose to use a gossip-like approach in order to let peers elect and identify leaders of interest communities. Once leaders are elected, their profiles are used as community representatives. Peers decide to adhere to a community or another by choosing the most similar representative they know about. In arXiv http://arxiv.org/abs/1106.3172
Co-evolution of Selection and Influence in Social Networks Many networks are complex dynamical systems, where both attributes of nodes and topology of the network (link structure) can change with time. We propose a model of co-evolving networks where both node at- tributes and network structure evolve under mutual influence. Specifically, we consider a mixed membership stochastic
In this essay, we briefly survey the contemporary scientific and philosophical debates on emergence and conclude that this notion has become a dilemma. We argue that the reason for this dilemma is metaphysical. Subsequently, we investigate some fundamental philosophical methods in science, such as Cartesian reduction and objectivism, as the main sources of scientific drawbacks. Eventually, we suggest some refinements in philosophical methods for improvement of scientific insight and propose the method of transcendentionism as a metaphysical panacea to encounter the dilemma of emergence. In Complexity http://assystcomplexity.eu/short/?id=126
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ECCS2011 Satellite Meetings http://www.eccs2011.eu/satellites/
ECCS'11 Satellite Meetings will take place on September 14 and 15, 2011, and will include the events below. Complex Dynamics of Human Interactions Organizers: E. Moro, K. Kaski XNet - Complexity & Networks Organizers: R. Lambiotte, J.P. Onnela, R. Sinatra, M. Szell Complexity and the Future of Transportation Systems Organizers: M. Zanin, F. Lillo Complexity in Energy Infrastructures: Models, Metrics and Metaphors Organizers: M. Masera, M. Rasetti, M. Weijnen, E. Bompard, M. Rosas-Casals, S. Valverde, P. Hines Complexity-Net Organizers: J. Johnson, L. Zandee Cultural and Opinion Dynamics: Modelling, Experiments and Challenges for the Future Organizers: T. Carletti, G. Deffuant, F. Gargiulo, S. Huet Current Trends in Game Theory Organizers: M. Kirkilionis, V. Kolokoltsov, J. Hofbauer Dynamics on and of Complex Networks â&#x20AC;&#x201C; V Organizers: N. Ganguly, F. Peruani, A. Mukherjee, M. Choudhury, B. Mitra Econophysics Colloquium Organizers: T. Di Matteo, P. Richmond EPNACS 2011 - Emergent Properties in Natural and Artificial Complex Systems Organizers: M.A. Aziz-Alaoui, A. Banos, C. Bertelle Frontiers in the Theory of Evolution Organizers: H. Meyer-Ortmanns Hierarchy: From the Definition to the Characterization of Complex Systems Organizers: B. Corominas-Mutra, C. Rodriguez-Caso, J. Goni NESS - Non-Equilibrium Social Science Organizers: P. Ormerod, M. Gallegati, J. Johnson, A. Nowak, B. Rosewell, Y.C. Zhang PhD 'Research in Progress' Workshop (III): LAB to SOCIETY - Opportunities in Complexity Organizers: D. Rodrigues, L. Mihoreanu, I. Kusel Policy Modelling Organizers: P. Ahrweiler, D. Payne, B. Edmonds, S. Occelli COSI-ICT - Science of Complex Systems for Socially Intelligent ICT Organizers: J. Johnson, ASSYST Social Energy: A Useful Notion for Analysing Complex Socio-ecological Systems? Organizers: S. Wolf, A. Mandel, I. Chabay, C. Jaeger, I. Kondor Unraveling and Controlling Discrete Dynamical Systems Organizers: J.M. Baetens, F. Bagnoli, B. de Baets Urban Social Dynamics: Segregation and Criminality Organizers: M.B. Gordon, J.P. Nadal, A. Tseloni, A. Vignes
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Conferences and workshops http://assystcomplexity.eu/conferences.jsp
6 UK-SNA 2011 7th UK Social Networks Conference University of Greenwich, London 7 Jul 2011 to 9 Jul 2011
Workshop on Robustness and Reliability of Electronic Marketplaces Liverpool, UK 2 Aug 2011 to 2 Aug 2011
ECoMASS-2011 5th Workshop on Evolutionary Computation and MultiAgent Systems and Simulation Workshop (ECoMASS2011) Dublin, Ireland 12 Jul 2011 to 13 Jul 2011
WICSOC 2011 The First International Workshop on Issues and Challenges in Social Computing (WICSOC 2011) Las Vegas USA 2 Aug 2011 to 2 Aug 2011
Computational Social Science: Text and Decisions Computational Social Science: Text and Decisions Catania University, Italy 16 Jul 2011 to 23 Jul 2011
ECAL11 European Conference on Artificial Life - 20th Anniversary Edition - Back to the Origins of Alife Paris, France 8 Aug 2011 to 12 Aug 2011
CLIMA XII 12th International Workshop on Computational Logic in Multi-Agent Systems Barcelona, Spain 17 Jul 2011 to 18 Jul 2011
WIIAT2011 The 2011 IEEE / WIC / ACM International Conferences on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology Campus Scientifique de la Doua, Lyon, France 22 Aug 2011 to 27 Aug 2011
ASONAM2011 The International Conference on Advances in Social Network Analysis and Mining Kaohsiung City, Taiwan 25 Jul 2011 to 27 Jul 2011
IEEE ICDL-EPIROB 2011 IEEE CONFERENCE ON DEVELOPMENT AND LEARNING, AND EPIGENETIC ROBOTICS Frankfurt, Germany 24 Aug 2011 to 27 Aug 2011
WISHWell 2011 3rd International Workshop on Intelligent Environments Supporting Healthcare and Well-being (WISHWell!11) Nottingham, UK 25 Jul 2011 to 26 Jul 2011 Game Theory and Society 2011 Game Theory and Society - Models of Social Interaction in Sociological Research ETH Zurich, Switzerland 27 Jul 2011 to 30 Jul 2011 ATOP2011 Agent Technologies for Business Applications and Enterprise Interoperability Liverpool, UK 2 Aug 2011 to 2 Aug 2011 ICEC 2011
SPSD2011 International Community on Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development Kanazawa, Japan 29 Aug 2011 to 31 Aug 2011 coins11 Collaborative Innovation Networks Conference Basel, Switzerland | HyperWerk Institute for Postindustrial Design 8 Sep 2011 to 10 Sep 2011 ECCS11 European Conference on Complex Systems 2011 Vienna, Austria 12 Sep 2011 to 16 Sep 2011 ICMC2011 2nd International Conference on Morphological Computation ECLT, Venice, Italy
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12 Sep 2011 to 14 Sep 2011 OSINT-WM International Symposium on Open Source Intelligence & Web Mining 2011 Athens, Greece 12 Sep 2011 to 14 Sep 2011 PHDVienna2011 PhD Research in Progress Workshop III Vienna, Austria 14 Sep 2011 to 14 Sep 2011 ANT2011 2nd International Conference on Ambient Systems, Networks and Technologies Ontario, Canada 19 Sep 2011 to 21 Sep 2011 ICORE2011 2nd International Conference on Reputation Montpellier, France 19 Sep 2011 to 19 Sep 2011 MAS&S 2011 5th International Workshop on Multi-Agent Systems and Simulation (MAS&S 2011) Szczecin, Poland 19 Sep 2011 to 21 Sep 2011 EPIA.2011 15th Portuguese Conference on Artificial Intelligence Lisbon, Portugal 10 Oct 2011 to 13 Oct 2011
CASON 2011 Third International Conference on Computational Aspects of Social Networks Salamanca, Spain 19 Oct 2011 to 20 Oct 2011 NICSO 2011 Nature Inspired Cooperative Strategies for Optimization Cluj Napoca, Romania 20 Oct 2011 to 22 Oct 2011 CAS AAAI 2011 AAAI Fall Symposium - Complex Adaptive Systems: Energy Information and Intelligence Arlington, VA, USA 4 Nov 2011 to 6 Nov 2011 EUMAS 2011 European Workshop on Multi-agent Systems Mastricht, Netherlands 14 Nov 2011 to 15 Nov 2011 ICAART 2012 4th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence Vilamoura, Algarve, Portugal 6 Feb 2012 to 8 Feb 2012 CI2012 Collective Intelligence 2012 MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA 18 Apr 2012 to 20 Apr 2012
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Jobs
Contacts
http://jobs.cssociety.org
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PhD PhD studentship in Agent-based modelling Centre for Policy Modelling Manchester, UK http://www.jobs.ac.uk/job/ACR878/phd-studentship/
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Postdoc/Lecturer Postdoctoral position at ENS Lyon, Physics Laboratory: "Dynamics of contact networks" Physics Laboratory, ENS Lyon France – July 1, 2011 Postdoc/Lecturer Postdoc opening in the field of dynamical networks ISI Foundation Italy – July 1, 2011 Postdoc/Lecturer Parallel simulation on the propagation of infectious diseases. Centro de Física da Matéria Condensada Universidade de Lisboa Portugal – July 1, 2011
Web: http://assystcomplexity.eu RSS: http://assystcomplexity.eu/rss.xml Twitter: http://twitter.com/assystcomplex FriendFeed: http://friendfeed.com/assystcomplex Email: newsletter@assystcomplexity.eu Feedback: http://assystcomplexity.ideascale.com/
!88+P+!"#$%&'+8*0)&#0+8":(&)*+ Web: http://cssociety.org RSS: http://cssociety.org/tiki-calendars_rss.php Suggestions: http://cssociety.org/suggestions The ASSYST project acknowledges the financial support of the Future and Emerging Technologies (FET) programme within the ICT theme of the Seventh Framework Programme for Research of the European Commission.
PhD Estimation of information flows in a sensor network : application to biomedical imaging. GIPSA-lab, UMR 5216 CNRS, Grenoble and Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon, Laboratoire de Physique, Equipe "Signaux, Systemes et Physique", CNRS UMR 5672. France – August 31, 2011
!"1)-(?/)"-0+)"+);(0+&7()("1K+ Iqbal Adjali, Jane Bromley, Jeff Johnson, Jorge Louçã, Yasmin Merali, and David MS Rodrigues
8)"-*+0/?#(00("1+=/(7&%(1&0K++ If you are a Complex System researcher/practitioner and want to share a success story about your work / research please submit it to newsletter@assystcomplexity.eu. The story should approximately 500 words (if you want to submit an extended story please contact us) and should be sent in TXT, ODT, RTF or DOC file formats.
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