aSEAn Focus Jan-Feb 2012 by Moe9005

Jan-Feb 2012

Source: http://www.akp.gov.kh/?p=9242

In this issue: Message from the ASEAN Studies Centre Head

Cambodia as ASEAN Chair for 2012: The Year of Cambodia’s ASEAN Chairmanship Critical Regional Economic Issues in 2012 Political & Security Issues for ASEAN in 2012 Socio-Cultural Issues in 2012 Anticipating Cambodia’s Performance as ASEAN Chair

ASC Updates February in ASEAN ASEAN News in Review—January 2012 ASC Upcoming Events

The first issue of the Centre’s newsletter for 2012 focuses on the prospects and expectations of Cambodia’s Chairmanship of ASEAN in 2012. The logo for Cambodia’s Chairmanship depicted on the cover of this issue, has been designed to represent “ASEAN moving forward through regional integration under the common goal of achieving peace and prosperity,” with each of the ten spokes of the wheel representing the ten member states of ASEAN, and the ASEAN logo in the centre, “which guarantees stability and sustainability”, as published by Agence Kampuchea Presse, 15 August 2011. For 2012, the ASEAN Studies Centre will continue activities that support the efforts for an integrated ASEAN Community in 2015. The assessment of member states’ readiness for the ASEAN Economic Community is ongoing. Myanmar’s chairmanship role in 2014 will be a topic of discussion, as will the use of nuclear energy for power-generation in some Southeast Asian countries, ii) the South China Sea claims, iii) the use of handphones in ASEAN countries, and iv) food, water and energy security and ASEAN cooperation on climate change . The Centre’s Ambassador Lecture Series will also continue with talks given by Ambassadors to ASEAN of Dialogue Partner countries such as India and South Korea.

- Rodolfo C Severino, ASEAN Studies Centre Head

News and Views The Year of Cambodia’s ASEAN Chairmanship Rodolfo C Severino Cambodia has taken over the chairmanship for 2012 of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN. This nation of about 15 million people, held together by the strongman Prime Minister Hun Sen, chaired ASEAN before, in 2002, when it had been in the ten-nation association only three years. However, the world and the region have changed much in those ten years. In the first place, ASEAN and its chair-country are today operating under a Charter, formally adopted in November 2007 and in force since December 2008, whereas, in 2002, an ASEAN Charter was merely a gleam in some academics’ and officials’ eyes.

Source: ASEAN Studies Centre

That Charter provides that the ASEAN chairmanship coincide with the calendar year (before, the turnover took place around mid-year), that ASEAN Summits take place twice a year instead of, in past practice, only once, and that the chairmanships of most ASEAN bodies, to the extent possible (ASEAN is nothing except flexible), be bundled into the same country. The Charter also tweaked some ASEAN institutions and habits. All this means that Cambodia has much on its plate in 2012 by virtue alone of its chairing and hosting ASEAN meetings. However, there are issues that Phnom Penh will have to face both as Cambodia and as ASEAN chair.

“...there are issues that Phnom Penh will have to face both as Cambodia and as ASEAN Chair.”

There is, first of all, the potential for more violent clashes between Cambodian and Thai armed forces on the disputed sliver of land adjacent to the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple on the border of the two countries. The most recent clashes had first erupted in 2008 on the occasion of the listing by UNESCO of Cambodia’s Preah Vihear as a World Heritage site. On 14 February 2011, the UN Security Council called on both sides to establish “a permanent ceasefire”. According to its president, the Council “expressed support for ASEAN’s active efforts in this matter and encouraged the parties to continue to cooperate with the organization in this regard”.

In a subsequent ASEAN foreign ministers meeting that Indonesia chaired in Jakarta, Cambodia and Thailand agreed to allow a team of unarmed Indonesian observers to monitor the ceasefire on the ground. On 18 July 2011, the International Court of Justice in The Hague ordered the two sides to withdraw their forces from a designated demilitarised zone and to continue their cooperation within ASEAN.

“...Cambodia has to navigate during its chairmanship between its status as a protagonist in its dispute with As ASEAN chair, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen is expected to be Thailand and its circuminvited to the next G-20 Summit. He will be called upon to express the stances as the chair of ASEAN viewpoints, whatever they are, with regard to the weighty quesASEAN,...” Regardless of the merits of the respective positions on this issue, Cambodia has to navigate during its chairmanship between its status as a protagonist in its dispute with Thailand and its circumstance as the chair of ASEAN, whose involvement Indonesia was starting to carry out during its chairmanship year.

tions on the global economy, including the re-structuring of that economy and the governance of the international financial institutions.

As a non-claimant in the South China Sea, Cambodia has to articulate forcefully the ASEAN position on the disputes there among four ASEAN members and between them and China/Taiwan, perhaps beyond the association’s interest in regional peace and stability, the peaceful resolution of international disputes, adherence to the rule of law, and freedom of navigation and overflight. At the same time, Cambodia as a state is beholden to Beijing for the latter’s much-valued investments and development aid. In 2012, Cambodia as chair of the ASEAN Economic Ministers as well as of ASEAN itself is expected to lead the association in confronting the problem of carrying out by the self-imposed 2015 deadline, three years from now, the commitments made by the member-states in the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint. There apparently remains a disagreement within ASEAN on Timor-Leste’s application for ASEAN membership. It falls upon Cambodia to lead the efforts in resolving this apparent dispute.

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News and Views The Year of Cambodia’s ASEAN Chairmanship (cont’d)

In terms of ASEAN’s internal affairs, Cambodia may be required to preside over the preparations for a probable review of the ASEAN Charter, which calls for such a review after five years of its entry into force, or at the end of 2013.

Source: http:// www.aseanvision.net/cms/ media/9/upload/thumbnail20091018101339651132.gif

Cambodia’s chairmanship of ASEAN comes at a time of heightened United States efforts to link up more tightly with East Asia, including with and through ASEAN. These efforts raise some vital questions, not least for Cambodia as ASEAN chair.

Some key questions:

· · ·

President Barack Obama poses for a photo with other leaders at the start of the US - ASEAN summit at the Bali Nusa Dua Convention Center in Nusa Dua, Bali, Nov. 18, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza) Source: http://www.whi tehouse.gov/ blog/2011/11/18/president-obama-east-asia-summit

Will Barack Obama, lame duck or re-elected, come to Cambodia in November for the East Asia Summit, in which he is now a participant? Will the U. S. refusal to be a party to the Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia, which is based on the East Asia Summit, not undermine CEPEA or even EAS itself? Will the U. S. interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership prevent a division of the Pacific “down the middle”, as Washington insists, or will China’s exclusion, at the outset at least, not have the opposite effect?

Finally, with Cambodia in its chair, ASEAN has to show that it can lead East Asian regionalism with useful and realistic ideas, as some non-ASEAN East Asian partners challenge ASEAN to do, instead of just managing the process, setting up the administrative arrangements and negotiating the chairman’s statements.

Source: http://www.asean2012.mfa.gov.kh/

Rodolfo C. Severino, a former ASEAN Secretary-General, is the head of the ASEAN Studies Centre at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

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News and Views Critical Regional Economic Issues in 2012 Sanchita Basu Das ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint Scorecard II An AEC Blueprint was set out in 2007 that laid out the action lines to achieve the goals of a single market and production base by 2015. To ensure timely implementation of the AEC Blueprint, an AEC Scorecard mechanism was being developed to monitor commitments/ milestones in the AEC Blueprint. The public version of the first AEC Scorecard has been issued in March 2010. According to the first AEC Scorecard, ASEAN has a 75.5 percent achievement rate for the period 2008 to 2009. http:// asc.iseas.edu.sg/ resources/reportseries

“According to the first AEC Scorecard, ASEAN has a 75.5 percent achievement rate for the period 2008 to 2009.”

The second AEC Scorecard, covering the period 2010-2011, is due in the first quarter of 2012. This will be a very important document for ASEAN stakeholders as the target date of 2015 is just 3 years away. Cambodia’s Chairmanship of ASEAN

As the year 2012 is going to witness uncertainty from the European debt crisis and a sluggish US economy, it will increase volatility in the financial markets. To deal with the adverse effect of international financial shock and increased volatility, ASEAN countries need to opt for policies that will bring long-term structural changes in their economies. To this end, Cambodia should support the current efforts to restructure the global economy and must highlight the need for enhanced policy coordination among the 10-member countries to better deal with external turbulence.

Cambodia must push forward the AEC agenda. It needs to find ways to engage the private sector, which seriously lacks information on AEC measures. The development gap between ASEAN’s most and least developed member states would also likely to be high on Cambodia’s agenda.

Trans-pacific Partnership (TPP) The Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) was an important highlight of the year 2011. The agreement, which initially began with Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore, was signed on 3 June

2005

and

entered

into

force

May

2006.

Currently,

five

additional

countries

–

Australia, Malaysia, Peru, the United States, and Vietnam– are negotiating to join the TPP, potentially taking the membership to 9. Between March 2010 and the last APEC meeting in November 2011, nine rounds of negotiations have already been held. The US hopes to finalize the “broad outlines” of existing agreements by the next APEC meeting in November 2012. The writer is the Lead Researcher Economic Affairs for the ASEAN Studies Centre, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

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News and Views Political and Security Issues for ASEAN in 2012 Pavin Chachavalpongpun 2012 will witness another busy year for ASEAN in the political and security area. There will be a series of ASEAN meetings, mostly in the framework of ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), covering the following issues:

· Non-proliferation and disarmament (March, Australia) · Disaster relief (March, Australia) · Threats on cyberspace (March, Australia) · Counterterrorism and transnational crime (March, Vietnam)

· Electoral capacity-building (March, Timor-Leste) · Confidence building measures and preventative diplomacy (May, New Zealand)

· Defence officials’ dialogue and security policy conference (June, Cambodia)

· Law and regulations of disaster relief (first half of 2012, China)

· Peacekeeping (second quarter of 2012, Mongolia) · Maritime security (second half of 2012, United States)

Foreign ministers and representatives of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) join hands during a photo session at the opening ceremony of the Asean Political Security Community Council meeting in Nusa Dua, on Indonesia's resort island of Bali on Nov. 16, 2011. AFP Source: http://globalnation.inquirer.net/18573/asean-opens -annual-summit-in-bali

A more specific focus will be on monitoring progress towards implementing the political-security pillar of the ASEAN Community by 2015 based on the ASEAN Political and Security Community (APSC) Blueprint, with an aim to enhance coordination and synergy among various sectoral bodies and mechanisms that fall under the responsibility of the APSC Council. ASEAN in 2012 will follow up past years’ achievements in the political and security pillar, including:

the function of the ASEAN Institute for Peace and Reconciliation,

the adoption of the Guidelines for the Implementation of the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties to the South China Sea (DOC),

the entry into force of the ASEAN Convention on Counterterrorism, and

the operationality of the ASEAN Maritime Forum and defence cooperation.

More importantly, ASEAN will need to promote a greater coordination and synergy across different sectoral bodies as well as across different pillars of the ASEAN Community, deemed necessary to ensure the realisation of the APSC by 2015. The writer is Lead Researcher Political Security for the ASEAN Studies Centre, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

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News and Views Socio-Cultural Issues in 2012 Moe Thuzar 2012 brings ASEAN one step closer to the accomplishment of the Association’s goal for an integrated community by 2015. ASEAN’s diversity is nowhere more evident than in the scope of the ASEAN SocioCultural Community (ASCC) Blueprint. It is undeniably large, covering broad priorities to:

· promote human development and security, · narrow the development gap, · ensure environmental sustainability and · build a regional identity.

The issues to be addressed by the ASCC Blueprint’s different sectors are equally wide-ranging:

· poverty, · health, · disaster management and response, · advancing education, · food security, · social impact of regional integration, · environmental sustainability, · migrant labour, · women and children’s rights, and · science and technology. Concern exists – at both policy and grassroots levels – on how ASEAN can achieve its objectives for a “caring and sharing” community.

Some points to ponder as ASEAN progresses work on building a social ASEAN:

Source: http://59.77.27.55/Article/ UploadFiles/200908/2009082517520713.jpg

Cont’d overleaf

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News and Views Socio-Cultural Issues in 2012 (cont’d) ·

60% of ASEAN’s workers are estimated as being in “vulnerable employment”, either as “ownaccount workers” in the informal sector or contributing family workers (and, as such, have little or no social protection). Young people are 3.5 times more likely to be unemployed than adults, and youth unemployment (or underemployment) continues to be a challenge. Women are disproportionately in jobs with low productivity or vulnerable employment. This highlights the continued need to address gender-based inequalities in employment.

Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate change issues, as the region has extensive, heavily populated coastlines, large agricultural sectors and large sections of population living under US$2 or US$1 a day. Many impacts of climate change that are felt in the traditional economic sectors have economic and social consequences, for example, food security, water, and even migration. Trans-boundary haze pollution has poverty and development issues at stake.

By 2020, Brunei Darussalam, Lao PDR, the Philippines and Vietnam will be the more “youthful” countries in ASEAN while the rest will be joining the ageing cycle. This poses implications for social security and social protection in ASEAN countries. Social protection issues will also be important for migrant workers from the ASEAN countries with more youthful populations as they move to find work in the “ageing” ASEAN countries. The ASEAN projects on home-based care for the elderly has gained ground in various member states. Still, there are differing approaches to and policies on active ageing, and different resource situations in each ASEAN country.

The main challenges will continue to be: a)

narrowing the development gap (within and across countries) and b) rallying the people around the priorities for regional community-building. At the same time, ASEAN countries are already looking ahead to a future beyond the stated integration date of 2015, with aspirations to become a region that is fully connected into the global network, with a high quality of life. While political stability and economic growth are seen as essential for this leap ahead, it is the people who are at the core of these processes. Although many of the ASCC priorities are grounded in national commitments and responsibilities, the socio-cultural pillar is most likely what will make or break regional integration.

The writer is Lead Researcher (Socio-Cultural) for the ASEAN Studies Centre, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

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News and Views Anticipating Cambodia’s Performance as ASEAN Chair Sanchita Basu Das

With the end of 2011, ASEAN is just three years away from achieving its goal to form an ASEAN Community. The chairmanship of ASEAN, which is currently with Cambodia, will move to Brunei in 2013, then Myanmar in 2014 and finally to Malaysia in 2015. The chairmanship of small countries from now till 2014 does not imply that they will have less influence over ASEAN matters. It should be noted that the small economies of ASEAN are more dependent on regional integration compared to the larger members. Given their relatively late start in joining the international economic arena, while Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam are strong advocates of globalization, Myanmar is yet to show its credibility to join the international community.

“The chairmanship of small countries from now till 2014 does not imply that they will have less influence over ASEAN matters. It should be noted that the small economies are more dependent on regional integration compared to larger members.”

Thus this period from 2012 to 2015 would be crucial since some of the newer members of ASEAN have to show their authority as ASEAN Chair and encourage all member countries to hasten the process of community building. Given this, as ASEAN Chair, what are some of the important issues that Cambodia has to deal with in 2012? 1.

Cambodia needs to ensure that ASEAN’s centrality is maintained in

the East Asia Summit. In 2011, the ASEAN member states acceded to the Bali Concord III, which is a document to unify the foreign policy positions of the member states in international platforms, like the multilateral forum, Group of 20. This was a good move to engineer ASEAN’s growing importance,

especially in the light of an expanded EAS. 2.

As the year 2012 is going to witness uncertainty from the European debt crisis and a sluggish US economy, it will increase volatility in the financial markets. The domestic interest rate adjustment will help in containing the volatility only in the short-run. To deal with the adverse effect of international financial shock and increased volatility, ASEAN countries need to opt for policies that will bring long-term structural changes in their economies. To this end, Cambodia should support the current efforts to restructure the global economy and must highlight the need for enhanced policy coordination among the 10-member countries to better deal with external turbulence.

Cambodia must push forward the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) agenda. While according to Scorecard I, 73.6 per cent of the AEC Blueprint targets have been met for the period between 2008 and 2009, the 10-member grouping had implemented 64.1 per cent of the measures under phase two of the period between 2010 and 2011. The number suggests that there are several challenges in implementing the AEC Blueprint. At this juncture, the most critical factor is to assess the timeliness of implementing the measures and their impact and effectiveness. This is where Cambodia’s credibility as ASEAN leader assumes importance.

It needs to find ways to engage the private sector, which

seriously lacks information on AEC measures.

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News and Views Anticipating Cambodia’s Performance as ASEAN Chair (Cont’d) As the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity has already been endorsed and there were some significant developments last year on resource mobilization, this year Cambodia needs to intensify collaboration with key stakeholders to enhance capacities in developing bankable proposals for infrastructure projects. The development gap between ASEAN’s most and least developed member states would also likely to be high on Cambodia’s agenda. 4.

Cambodia has to monitor developments in Myanmar. As ASEAN has approved Myanmar to be its Chair in 2014, the international community is going to closely watch the on-going political and economic reforms in Myanmar. Cambodia needs to ensure that Myanmar continues with its domestic reforms to rejuvenate its economy and convince the West that the changes are for real.

As 2011 failed to see Timor Leste as the 11th member of ASEAN, in all likelihood, it will be discussed again in 2012. Indonesia, the biggest economy of ASEAN, is a big supporter of Timor Leste’s membership and by the end of its chairmanship, it convinced ASEAN members to form a working group to review the readiness of the country to join the grouping.

Cambodia needs to work with Vietnam in selecting the next ASEAN Secretary General (SG). The SG of ASEAN was appointed by the ASEAN Summit for a non-renewable term of five years, while being selected from among nationals of the ASEAN member states on alphabetical rotation. The term of current ASEAN SG, Dr Surin Pitsuwan of Thailand, is expiring by the end of 2012.

Despite these critical tasks, there is a good possibility that Cambodia will be distracted by the Preah Vihear dispute. Last year, border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia caused dozens of causalities and displaced many, pushing Indonesia to intervene by invoking the dispute resolution clause of the ASEAN Charter. That helped to calm the situation only temporarily. Most of the time in 2012, Cambodia’s chairmanship is likely to emphasise less on controversial economic matters, which is also relatively easy to achieve consensus within ASEAN. It will be reluctant to push things forward on security issues such as the South China Sea dispute, because of its significant economic links with China. Hence, the year 2012 will present some difficult challenges for Cambodia. The country should shift its focus away from problems like territorial conflict with Thailand, and make headway with ASEAN member states to prepare the region for a relevant and a dynamic economic market. In recent years, the AEC has attracted lot of attention from the major powers of the world. These include the US, the EU, China, Korea, Japan and Russia. What needs to be done is to translate these attentions into real partnership and eventually reap tangible economic gains for ASEAN as a region.

The writer is Lead Researcher for Economic Affairs at the Asean Studies Centre, Institute of South East Asian Studies. These are her personal views.

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ASC Updates This Month in ASEAN 5 February: Prophet Muhammad’s Birthday in Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia Mawlid al-Nabi, Milad un-Nabi, or Maulidur Rasūl is an internationally celebrated Islamic holiday, the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad. This date is officially marked a public holiday in Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Shia Muslims celebrate the Prophet’s birthday 5 days later than other followers of Islam. On this day, the faithful hold gatherings to remember, observe, discuss, and celebrate the life and teachings of Prophet Muhammad. 12 February: Union Day, Myanmar Myanmar celebrates its 64th Union Day. On this day in 1947, representatives from the Shan, Kachin, and Chin states of Myanmar (then known as Burma) together with the head of the interim government Aung San, signed the Panglong Agreement to form the Union of Burma. 18 February: Meaka Bochea/Makha Bucha Day, Cambodia and Thailand Cambodia and Thailand observe the Buddhist holiday of Sangha Day, called Meaka Bochea in Cambodia and Makha Bucha in Thailand. This day falls on the full moon of the third lunar month of the traditional Buddhist calendar. It commemorates the day, about 2,500 years ago, when Lord Buddha’s first 1,250 disciples all arrived simultaneously to pay their respects and listen to his sermon which outlined the principles of Buddhism. It is said that on this day Buddha also announced his passing and enlightenment which came three months later. Devotees gather at temples to honour the Three Jewels of Buddhism- the Buddha, the Dharma, and the Sangha. 23 February: National Day, Brunei On this day, Brunei Darussalam celebrates its 28th National Day. From 1888 to 1 January 1984, Brunei was a protectorate of Britain. National Day celebrations include parades, flag hoisting ceremonies, and prayer gatherings among many other festivities.

ASEAN News in Review—January 2012: Human Rights in ASEAN Will See More Debate As ASEAN’s Human Rights Committee held its 11th meeting in Siem Reap, Cambodia, the draft charter for human rights is expected to be debated soon by both governments and rights groups before finalisation. According to Om Yentieng, head of the Cambodian Human Rights Committee, seven meetings had already taken place for the draft. The Cambodian official added that the consensus approach from all 10 member states has been difficult and that while the ASEAN declaration will be “tailored” to member states, it will also conform to the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights, of which all ASEAN states are members. Source: “ASEAN Rights Declaration Moves Closer to Debate”, Voice of America (Khmer), 10 January 2012. http://www.voanews.com/khmer-english/news/Asean-Rights-Declaration-Moves-Closer-to-Debate-137033678.html

Tourism Potential: ASEAN as a Single Destination Businesses and private sector stakeholders who attended the most recent ASEAN Tourism Forum Travel Exchange (ATF Travex) praised ASEAN’s campaign in promote itself as a single tourism destination. The previous year saw a 7.4% increase in tourists to the region, drawing in a total of more than 79 million visitors. However, intra-ASEAN travel remains the major source of tourists in most member states at about 43% of international arrivals overall. Around 1,600 buyers and sellers in the global tourism industry were present at ATF Travex with trillions of rupiah worth of transactions estimated to be made at the three-day event. Participants expressed increased interest in the region which they believed shows great potential for tourism gains. Source: “Businesses Laud ASEAN’s Single Destination Campaign”, The Jakarta Post, 14 January 2012. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/01/14/businesses-laud-asean-s-single-destination-campaign.html

Indonesian Delegation Shows Southeast Asian Leadership in South China Sea Dispute The Indonesian government received praise for its active role in the South China Sea dispute. At the 4th ASEAN -China Senior Officials Meeting held in Beijing, the Indonesian delegation urged for further cooperation to implement the Declaration of Code of Conduct (DOC) agreed to in 2002 and its guidelines adopted in July 2011. The delegation encouraged the parties involved to push the currently “open momentum” to implement the DOC to lead to close cooperation concerning the freedom of navigation, maritime safety, ecosystem and biodiversity efforts, and in combating piracy and other transnational crimes. Haryadi Wiryawan, an international relations academic from the University of Indonesia, added that there should be a stricter Code of Conduct to enforce rules and deal head-on with territorial claims rather than just a simple declaration. Source: “RI Lauded for S. China Sea Maritime Proposal”, The Jakarta Post, 18 January 2012. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/01/18/ri-lauded-s-china-sea-maritime-proposal.html

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ASC Updates Upcoming ASC Activities: 2 March 2012: ISEAS-ADB Final Workshop on “Assessment of the Impediments and Actions Required for Achieving an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015” ISEAS will host the final workshop on a project by the ASC and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), “Assessment of the Impediments and Actions Required for Achieving an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015”. This two-year project includes experts and analysts from both academia and think-tanks. It is comprised of one business survey for the ASEAN business community and eight background papers on ASEAN’s non-tariff barriers, dispute settlement, trade in services, investment liberalisation, regional guidelines on competition policy and intellectual property rights, sub-regional cooperation and connectivity, free trade agreements, and regional institutional architecture.

Check out our ‘Events Calendar’ on the ASC website as we update it regularly with new activities:

www.aseanstudiescentre.org

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