BASF FACING AGRI-FOOD AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES
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The Future of the Agricultural Channel by BASF and Its Clients: the Three Stages of Futures-Thinking Phase 1 (*) : BASF and Its Distributors: A Shared Future (1995-1996) - Identify ongoing changes and the stakes implied for agricultural distribution, e.g., technical factors, economics, and training. Clientele - 3 working groups made up of distribution managers; 4 one-day meetings over six months. Tools - Understand the current demands of farmers and anticipate their future needs: morphological analysis. - Analyse the distributor's profession, strengths and weaknesses: construct competence trees (both future and present) of the distributors' offering. - Detail the main battlefields of the future, inventory the goals of the actors involved, and understand alliances and opposing interests: analysis of the actors'game inside and outside the agricultural channel. Phase 2: Agriculture and environment with the horizon line 2010, "futures consultation" (1997) - Understand the interfaces between agriculture and the environment now and in the past. - Anticipate changes to the horizon 2010, reflect on measures that distribution can take. Clientele - A panel of a hundred-odd distribution managers (response rate 48 to 58%). - A n internal panel of40technical-sales representatives at BASF. - A steering committee that unites distributors and farmers and experts at the wrap-up seminar. Tools - Delphi-RegnierAbacus:a Delphi questionnaire overthree rounds (past, present, future) staggered over 5 months (votes and explanations), plus and efficient voting mechanism: the RÊgnier Abacus. - A morphological analysis to construct contrasted scenarios of the relationship between agriculture and the environment, horizon line 2010. Phase 3: Food Security and Environment, Analysis of the Actors (1998) - Identify the battlefields related to food safety and the environment. - Understand the manoeuvres of all the actors involved, analyse the forces active in the situation, pick out major conflicts, and identify necessary or possible alliances. Clientele • A Futures-Thinking Group including industrial suppliers, distributors and farmers that expanded to include downstream players, e.g. independent farmers. • The other actors: mass distributors, public authorities and consumer associations brought together by: -agreements as to fostering thought; - t h e wrap-up seminar to comment, criticise, complete the data. Tools Actor analysis (stakes, battlefields, actors present, goals pursued) using the Mactor method. (*) Proceeded by a seminar that brought together some 40 managers.