Annex: The association between migrants and native employment by 12 months. This suggests that our results may not be robust to endogeneity bias, or alternatively that migrant inflows in a given year are not associated with changes in native employment in the following year.
initial reduction in native employment. The spatial correlation approach may underestimate this dynamic impact, since it requires the assumption that migrants only influence native employment rates in the same region. By contrast, the consumption of goods and services by a migrant may contribute to job creation for natives living in regions other than the migrantâ€&#x;s home region. As a consequence, there is scope for further work to estimate the dynamic association between migrants and native employment rates.
Further analysis A.68
A.69
A.70
In addition to the results presented above, we have also estimated the association between changes to the migrant stocks in past years and changes to current native employment rates over the period 1975 to 2010. The purpose of this is to estimate whether the estimated negative association between migrants and natives persists over time. We have re-estimated the model 4 regression from Table A.1 replacing the current migrant/native ratio with lags of the migrant/native ratio. We estimate that the coefficient on lag 4 is -0.087, which is statistically significant at the 1 per cent level, and that the coefficient on lag 5 is 0.131 and statistically significant at the 5 per cent level. Lags 1, 2 and 3 are found to be statistically insignificant. Given that the estimated coefficients on lags 4 and 5 roughly cancel out, we believe it is reasonable to infer that inflows of migrants in a given year are associated with a reduction in native employment in the same year, but not associated with changes in native employment in the subsequent five years. In the long term, we expect migrantsâ€&#x; contribution to the demand for labour to increase native employment, offsetting the
A.71
We have also estimated the association between migrants and native employment rates by qualification level, running separate regressions for individuals with low qualifications, intermediate qualifications and graduates (defined in section A.4). The rationale for this is to determine whether the association between migrants and native employment rates differs for different qualification groups. For each of these groups we find that migrants had a statistically insignificant association with native employment rates. There is scope to investigate this further in future work, for example: grouping individuals into two rather than three qualification groups or grouping individuals by occupation.
A.72
Further, we have estimated the association between migrants and native employment rates for the period 1975 to 2010, separating the data into regions and years in which the stock of migrants increased and when the stock
117