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Strategic Vision vol. 12, no. 55 (April, 2023)
The Flames of War Taiwan Strait risks conflagration following pattern set by Russia in Ukraine Dmytro Burtsev
T
aiwan has been a silent hotspot in relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for several decades. At times, tensions flare up, and the fire burns very brightly; at others, only light smoke remains. As long as the embers continue to glow, however, the potential for an inferno is kept alive and smoldering, just under the surface, threatening to engulf the region and the world in the flames of war. This is the lesson of Ukraine. In Ukraine—one of the less predictable conflictgenerating countries in the heart of Europe—a sudden conflagration erupted in 2014, beginning with an uprising that consumed almost the entire nation,
directed against the regime’s efforts to halt the country’s trajectory towards European integration. It flared into a revolution that spurred the Russian invasion of Crimea, Russian support of separatist movements in the Donbas region, and eight years of sustained conflict—sometimes engulfing; sometimes simmering—in the East of Ukraine, sullying this once pastoral farmland with the unpleasant smell of smoke and Russian national propaganda. Taiwan has its own story and history, and while it is one of the regions with the most significant potential for catalyzing another scorching war, peace—albeit a tenuous peace—yet remains. However, the crucial question is: for how long?
photo: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine The Ukraine war has been burning for over a year, prompting people in Taiwan to wonder whether they will share the fate of their Ukrainian counterparts.
Dr. Dmytro Burtsev is a junior fellow in the Institute of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Science of Ukraine. He can be reached for comment at: dmytro_burtsev@yahoo.com