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Strategic Vision vol. 12, no. 55 (April, 2023)
A Two-Front Risk Potential for conflict in Taiwan Strait causing increased concern in Seoul Ashton Cho
W
ar breaking out in the Taiwan Strait would not pose a direct national security threat to South Korea. The secondorder consequences, however, would be significant. From the perspective of the Republic of Korea (ROK), a potential Taiwan conflict demands two levels of national security assessments, leading to the conclusion that, as a treaty ally of the United States, it would be incumbent upon the government in Seoul, as well as the ROK Armed Forces, to proactively define a Taiwan strategy. While South Korea would not be in the line of fire should Beijing order the People’s Liberation Army
(PLA) to march on Taiwan, and hence would not be mobilizing its defenses to exchange direct fire with Chinese troops, leaders in Beijing must surely be apprehensive about such a move provoking more states than is absolutely necessary. Beijing is doubtless waiting for the opportune moment when conditions are right—such conditions being when the PLA reaches sufficient war fighting capabilities; when domestic political conditions align; and when the resolve of the United States and its allies is at an ebb, even if only momentarily. At that point, a PLA blockade, assault, or full-scale invasion of Taiwan will most likely be executed in a manner designed to avoid provoking
photo: Korea.net, Jeon Han A light dusting of snow covers the Gyeongbok-gung Palace is Seoul, South Korea on January 26, 2023.
Dr. Ashton Cho is the director of international security cooperation at the Korea Association of Military Studies and is currently a Taiwan Fellow at the ROC National Defense University. He can be reached for comment at ashtonscho@gmail.com