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Strategic Vision vol. 12, no. 55 (April, 2023)
New Power Triangle Old power balance in Middle East giving way to new trends driving change Osama Kubbar
photo: Anderson Savoy
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An Iranian waits to have his passport inspected by an Iranian solider at the north gate of the Muntheria Port of Entry along the Iraq-Iran border.
or the past five decades, since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the Middle East has been going through so much geopolitical transformation, mainly as a result of external influence. However, the events of the last decade have seen changes to the region come increasingly from within. Since 2010, internal elements have been the key forces driving geopolitical change, with a great degree of influence coming not from the elites, but from the citizenry of the region, especially its youth. External forces are still involved, of course, but there is a large and growing internal desire for change across the region; from Morocco in the west up to the Levant, and including the Gulf region, as well as Turkey and Iran, due to their tangled interrelationship and historical ties with the greater region. To get
a sense of what is driving this metamorphosis, and whatever trajectory this is likely to put the region on in the future, it is critical that we examine how the Middle East has evolved up to this point. The region has been under brutal, dictatorial regimes for many decades, marked by severe human rights abuses, assaults on basic human dignity, and serious discrimination. The argument advanced herein is that the rise of a new, fearless generation of activists, coupled with the US retreat from the region, are the key factors triggering a rebalancing of power. Despite claims of regional unity under the umbrella of the Arab League, the reality points to the fact that the region is divided into three main blocs. These three blocs are geographically associated, and they share a lot of common traditions, history, and cul-
Professor Osama Kubbar is a senior policy advisor and analyst at the Strategic Studies Center of the Qatari Armed Forces. He can be reached for comment at okabbar@yahoo.com