TAO of business

Chapter 2 It’s the same old story Scenarios At times, the world can look so complex and unpredictable that it becomes hard to make decisions. Scenario building is a discipline for breaking through this barrier.

-Ged Davis This chapter explores the break through technique of building scenarios, developed by Peter Schwartz back in late 1970s or what I like to call storytelling, to help you make better decisions across a multitude of possible futures. As you probably can fig ure out I am a big fan of analogies. So what I would like to do is paint a picture in simple terms of what building scenarios is truly all about. Building scenarios is similar to that of driving a car.

For those of you that have driven a car (I am presuming that the vast majority of you own and/or have driven in a car) you are probably all too familiar with the unplanned and unforeseen circumstances that we have grown accustomed to. For example, if you live in a major metropolitan city you’ve probably experienced a traffic jam or two thus far in your driving career. (For those of you unfamiliar with the very notion of traffic consider yourself one of the truly blessed.) When you begin your journey and set out for your destination a number of possibilities can occur. You may encounter unfortunate climatic road conditions, a flat tire, a minor accident, or even a gas tank that is low on fuel. You could even experience something as minor as mis placing your car keys which can impede and even delay your road trip. These types of scenarios can often33