Editor's Desk
"China resolutely opposes the wrong practices and provocative activities of the US side regarding arms sales to Taiwan, sanctions on the CMC (Central Military Commission) Equipment Development Department and its leadership, illegal entry into China’s territorial waters and maritime and air spaces near relevant islands and reefs, and wide-range and frequent close-in reconnaissance” - China’s National Defense in the New Era, The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, July 2019
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n a highly publicised opinion piece in early August, Andrew Hastie, Federal Liberal MP and chair of the parliamentary joint committee for intelligence and security referred to a distinct moment in modern history, which had largely been forgotten. The moment is April 1, 2001 when a J-8 fighter jet from the People’s Liberation Army Navy collided with a US Navy EP-3 signals intelligence aircraft, off the coast of Hainan Island. The 24 crew of the US EP-3 were held for 11 days by the Chinese government and the aircraft returned much later, in pieces, via a Russian Antonov cargo plane. Hastie wrote, “This was an early test for the Bush administration, only 10 weeks old. It was faced with brinkmanship, intelligence plundering and technology transfer.” Just what China learned and took out of this incident may well have changed the course of this century. Fast forward nearly two decades. A number of national security observers now hold the perception that we are in a pre-war phase between the USA and China. The risk of major military action is expected to rise steadily over the next decade as China progresses to “complete the modernisation of national defense and the military by 2035.” In this context, Hastie observed, “The next decade will test our democratic values, our economy, our alliances and our security like no other time in Australian history.” As we move into the 2020s, be it the ‘New
Era’ as declared by China, or a ‘pivot to the IndoPacific’ as described by the US, this decade will be significantly complex but not without some predictability. The distinct difference in ideology has a long history of leading to war in an attempt to stop the advance of Communism. Political, economic and social tensions will continue to rise. The continuation of protests in Hong Kong, along with the risk of para-military action from the Mainland is one of the latest symptoms of this resistance. Inevitably, we are approaching a point where China’s rise will be blocked with force. Socially, the frontline is currently Hong Kong. Yet the outcome in Hong Kong will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the future of Taiwan. China’s National Defence Whitepaper states, “The ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and their actions remain the gravest immediate threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the biggest barrier hindering the peaceful reunification of the country…China must be and will be reunited...We make no promise to renounce the use of force, and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures...The PLA will resolutely defeat anyone attempting to separate Taiwan from China and safeguard national unity at all costs. Watch closely also Chinese political and military influence in Cambodia, Vietnam, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. As well as, US military manoeuvring and trade outcomes. Alongside this threat of major conflict in the region, is a growing threat landscape
to governments and a challenging business environment. As major powers manoeuvre militarily, so do intelligence and diplomatic services. An Australian Strategic Policy Institute Strategic Insights paper, From board room to situation room, Why corporate security is national security, July 2019, highlighted, “There exists a void between business and national security agencies when it comes to understanding each other’s capabilities and limitations. Our approach to national security planning should now include key companies and their supply chains: it’s time to rethink our national security approach in a more complex, dynamic and interconnected world…. That’s because in non-traditional warfare, or what the Australian Chief of the Defence Force General Angus Campbell calls ‘political warfare’ (which is below the threshold of direct military aggression), our corporate sector is now as much a target as our military forces.” In this context, all security professionals, be they physical or cyber orientated must up-skill and work hard to protect their respective domains. Government and corporate espionage, sabotage, corruption and trade secret theft will remain at a heightened and sustained risk. Support from corporate boards and company executives is required. Well done to ASPI and ASIAL for working to raise the profile of the industry. To highlight the trend further, in February 2019 the Australian Parliament systems were >> compromised and affected personal data of
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