On a net supply basis, (including existing supply curtailments) the cobalt market is forecast to grow (2015-2018F) by only 2.4% CAGR and (2015–2020F) 3.5% CAGR, a more modest supply picture. In 2016, the main projects are Etoile Leach SX–EW plant in Congo (DRC), Nova Nickel in Australia, and Idaho Cobalt (now called e-cobalt) in the US, with a combined capacity of 6,875t. Table 10 on the previous page shows potential cobalt projects (2016F–2018F).
5.16 Cathode Market Forecast Improvement in EV driving range and ownership economics, with subsequent consumer take up, increased penetration of fixed storage devices (both household and utility scale), combined with increases in stability and safety performance of lithium ion batteries, will become key drivers to battery demand. EV batteries will dominate the 2020F battery market (aggregate 54.7% of all battery materials) and growth (2015–2020F 23.7% CAGR), with Fixed Energy Storage (aggregate 24.4% of all battery materials) and even more impressive growth (2015-2020F 36.7% CAGR). The net effect of this demand will drive strong battery materials demand of (2015–2020F) 30.3% CAGR hitting 320,000t in 2020F. Figure 28 below shows Global Shipments of Battery (Cathode) Material (t).
Global Shipments – Cathode (t)
350,000 300,000
15A–20F 30.3%
250,000 200,000
09A–15A 30.0% CAGR
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020F Cathode Shipments (t)
50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Growth (%yoy)
Figure 28 – Global Shipments of Battery (Cathode) Material (t)
Growth (%yoy) (RHS)
Source: ResearchInChina
5.17 Price Forecast and Conclusion Despite global cobalt demand reaching 89,000t (+9.9% yoy) in 2015, the industry was still in oversupply. In 2016 the market is finally in balance, and will swing to increasing multiyear deficits as factors determining cobalt demand (articulated in this research as battery materials, superalloys, magnetic alloys and hard alloys) drive a net demand growth of 2015–2020F 8% CAGR against modest net supply growth of 3.5% CAGR. Figure 29 below shows Global Cobalt Demand Forecast by Application (t).
Global Cobalt Demand Forecast (t)
Figure 29 – Global Cobalt Demand Forecast by Application (t) 140,000 120,000
8.0% AGR C F 0 2 15A–
100,000
Others Glass & Ceramics Adhesives Catalysts
80,000
Magnetic Materials
60,000
Hard Alloys
40,000
Super Alloys
20,000
Battery Materials
-
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: ResearchInChina
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