Back-to-School 2009 Reflects Economic Uncertainty BY
CHRIS ADAMS
ven though the economy is showing signs of promise and the stock market is rising after a long slumber, the 2009 back-to-school season reflected a shaky, uncertain economy. While economic indicators are looking up and Wall Street is showing some life, the “Main Street” end of the economy has yet to reflect these realities. With unemployment up and consumer credit markets tight, parents were strict and strategic with the money they spent preparing their children for another year of school. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2009 “Back to School Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey,” conducted by BIGresearch, the average family with students in grades kindergarten through 12 is expected to have spent $548.72 on school merchandise, a decline of 7.7 percent from 2008. (Keep in mind that the 2008 season wasn’t a strong one either.) According to this survey, the economy had a profound impact on back-to-school spending as four out of five American consumers made adjustments to back-to-school plans this year as a consequence of economic uncertainty. “Consumers in this economy are the most aggressive in regard to getting the best deals than we have seen in quite some time,” says Dr. Scott Testa, professor of business administration at Cabrini College. “When you have slow economic times, people hold off purchases as late as possible because their mindset says if they hold out there will be a better chance of finding a better deal.” The lateness of back-to-school purchases was apparent during this year’s season. Reports showed that many consumers didn’t finish up their shopping until after the school year was underway. Parents were especially keen on holding off on buying supplies that could be included on teachers’ back-to-school supply lists. Crayola, a mainstay of these lists, did see sales skew later than usual. “When faced with an uncertain economy, consumers tend to hold on to their money longer and put off making purchases until they actually need it,” says Craig Skinner, platform leader for Crayola’s essentials play platform. “In spite of the economy, Crayola had a strong back to school.” While the season did certainly see the effects of the economy, it
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28 TOYS & FAMILY ENTERTAINMENT NOVEMBER 2009
Crayola Dry-Erase Crayons
may have been spared the brunt of things. Even though consumers are making adjustments to their buying strategies, they scrimp less on things for their children than in other areas. “Back to school is a resilient period for retailers because parents will not scrimp on their child’s education and will buy the items on the school list,” says Crayola’s Skinner. “They are willing to shop around for the best price, cut coupons, and pay attention to retailerspecific promotions, but in the end they want their child to have the best possible tools to be successful in school.”
Holiday Barometer?
So what does the feedback about the 2009 back-to-school season tell us about the current state of the economy? Does it give indications of consumer spending patterns moving forward? Well, those are two difficult questions. Over the past couple of years, some analysts have said that the back-to-school window is a useful barometer for the upcoming holiday season. The 2008 back-to-school and holiday seasons certainly reflected this. Sales were late (but not as late