The Demographics of Drinkers

By Jeff Siegel

Is the glass half empty or half full?

The Year of Coronavirus has led to some strange new phenomena when it comes to alcohol consumption in the US, whether it’s the long-distance Zoom cocktail hour or the curbside pickup of cocktails, wine, beer, and spirits from local restaurants.

It’s hard to say whether any of these changes are likely to endure past the pandemic. But even at this turn of the seasons— associated in any normal year with glasses topped up with holiday cheer, followed by the inevitable sober reflection and resolutions come January—there’s one prediction that seems nearly certain to prove accurate: The total amount of alcohol consumption in this country won’t change much, if at all.

US alcohol consumption peaked just before World War I at twoand-a-half gallons per person per year, the equivalent of about a case of wine, or a bit more than a case of beer. Guess what, the US per capita alcohol consumption at the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century is pretty much the same as it was a century ago.

1960s: Spirits reign supreme. Tom Collins, Rob Roy, Sidecars, Pink Ladies and the ubiquitous dry Martini—whether shaken or stirred—are typical libations at many a “Mad Men” era metropolitan cocktail bar.

US alcohol consumption stands in stark contrast to other affluent countries. “Over there,” people drink more alcoholic beverages than Americans do on average, and the amounts they drink have increased over time as they have become more affluent.

But the unchanging consumption level in the US doesn’t mean the demographics and behaviors of drinkers aren’t constantly shifting. Each generation, whether it’s baby boomers, millennials, Gen Xers, or Gen Zs are creating their own distinctive drinking preferences.

“The one consistent thing about these trends,” says analyst Christian Miller of Full Glass Research in the San Francisco Bay Area, “is that different generations approach alcohol differently, and that’s tied into different cultures among the different generations.”

So who drinks what?

The connections that do exist point to a complex interplay between traditional demographics like age, sex, income, ethnic background, and city vs. rural, but also take in changes elsewhere in the culture, and include generational shift. For example, wine became more popular in the early 1960s as overall consumption increased, and that may well be because the first baby boomers who reached drinking age rejected the alcohol choices of their parents in the same way they were beginning to reject their parents’ socio-economic values, says George Koob, PhD., the director of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

“You can see some of the same things now with the perception of marijuana,” says Koob. “The culture became less strict about alcohol, just like it has become less strict about marijuana. The perception of marijuana today is that it is safe and it’s OK to use, and that became the perception of alcohol, that it wasn’t as immoral to drink as it had been.”

It’s also possible to see this sort of complex interplay in the 1980s at the beginning of the wine boom, says Dale Stratton, president of the Wine Market Council. The introduction of light beers made American beers taste blander at the same time California producers were making better quality wines, as well as wines that were fruitier or sweeter or both, like white zinfandel. This coincided with a significant cultural shift about attitudes toward food: We wanted more variety, more flavor, and higher quality. Most beer, regardless of brand, tasted the same, but wine drinkers could choose between different varietals, different styles, and different countries. Which, Stratton adds, would eventually lead to the emergence of craft beers, offering a similar kind of variety for a younger generation.

In this, many stereotypes about alcohol consumption turn out to be true. Gallup has surveyed Americans in regard to their drinking habits every year since the end of World War II; its 2019 results found men twice as likely to drink beer as women, who prefer wine; and that college graduates drink more wine than anyone else, while those with a high school degree or less drink more beer. Millennials, meanwhile, drink less than Gen Xers, who in turn drink less than boomers do; and non-white Americans drink less wine, while consuming more beer and spirits than white Americans do.

It’s also worth noting that religion still matters, even in the second decade of the twenty-first century and a hundred years removed from Prohibition and its religious and moral imperatives. A study compiled by the Pew Research Center, looking at drinking among Christian faiths, found Catholics drink more frequently than Protestants do by about a six to five margin. Evangelical Protestants drink less frequently than mainline Protestants by about three to two, and are much more likely to view drinking as immoral than anyone else—about one in four, compared to one in 13 among mainline Protestants and one in six among Catholics.

Poring over details

Jarret Hart, PhD., a post-doctoral scholar at the University of California-Davis, who has published several studies about US alcohol consumption patterns and demographics, in conjunction with several colleagues, has dug even deeper. In a 2019 study, he and Julian Alston, the director of the Robert Mondavi Institute Center for Wine Economics at California-Davis, found a relationship between political affiliation, ethnic origin, population density, age, and price in beer and wine preferences. The results, says Hart, could have been affected by the fact that data were limited to sales in states that sell beer and wine in supermarkets (most don’t sell spirits). Still, he says that findings based on data from 20062016, seem consistent with past studies that and point to several larger trends. For example, market shares of higher-priced craft beers are growing, while shares of lower-priced beer from the biggest producers, are slowing. There also seems to be growth in pricier wine labels at the expense of cheaper wines.

Evolution of social drinkers (pre-COVID). Millennials were more likely than older counterparts to opt for drinking in moderation at an upscale wine bar.

2019 found men twice as likely to drink beer as women, who prefer wine; and that college graduates drink more wine than anyone else, while those with a high school degree or less drink more beer.

Interestingly, people who prefer craft beer are more likely to have voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, live in a rural area, drink less expensive or sweet wine if they drink wine, and spend more money on alcohol than anyone else.

Conversely, those who buy higher-priced wine are more likely to drink imported beer, live in cities, spend less overall on alcohol than anyone else, but they also tend to prefer Trump more than those who drink cheap wine.

This study looked as well at Hispanic ancestry and whether the consumer came from a beer or wine culture—and again, the results were not always typical. Hispanics tended to prefer craft beer and high-priced wine. Those from a beer culture still preferred beer, either craft or Big Beer. Those from a wine culture drank more cheap wine and preferred craft and imported beers.

“One of the things that we wanted to look at was whether regional differences still existed in the US for alcohol preference,” says Hart, “given that these differences are disappearing in the rest of the world. And they still do exist. Part of it is religion, but that doesn’t explain all of it. And neither does income, since it’s not necessarily true that wealthier people switch to wine. And why should ancestral background still matter?”

With all these factors in play, “it’s amazing that overall consumption has remained so stable for so long,” says Hart. “The broader trend is that countries are becoming more alike in their drinking thanks to globalization. But in the US, that theory breaks down, and we’re still different from everyone else.”

A History of Drinking

It wasn’t difficult to decipher US drinking habits in the 175 years before World War II. There was little wine made in the US, so there was little wine consumption. Spirits, and most noticeably whiskey, were more common than beer until industrialization in the late nineteenth century, since whiskey was easier to make. In 1860, Americans drank 2.5 gallons of alcohol a year, and spirits accounted for 90 percent of that. By the beginning of World War I, beer made up about 58 percent of alcohol consumption, even though we drank that same 2.5 gallons a year.

Our overall consumption pales in comparison to most of the affluent world. Russians drink some 3.1 gallons per person— the equivalent of about four cases of wine per person a year. That’s about one-third of what it was in 1980, at the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Germans drink even more, 3.8 gallons, or about 1 2/3 cases of beer. The French, who still drink more than Russians do, have seen alcohol consumption fall by more than one-half since 1920.

Which brings us to Prohibition. Americans didn’t drink alcohol (legally, anyway) between 1920 and 1933. In this, the US is the only industrialized country in world history to ban drinking, though temperance movements have been common throughout British history, which includes pub closing laws and the formation in 1865 of the Salvation Army. The irony about Prohibition, say some scholars, is that even though overall consumption probably decreased, the country’s alcoholism rate probably didn’t, and may even have increased. That’s because, given fewer opportunities to drink, those who did crammed more drinking into fewer opportunities.

Drinking through the Decades

US alcohol consumption can be divided into seven periods since the end of World War II, when production and demand returned to levels that were more-or-less normal following Prohibition, the Great Depression, and the war:

Late 1940s to early 1960s

Overall consumption declines to less than two gallons per person, among the lowest in US history. This happens despite a booming economy and the Korean War. Spirits—think the “Mad Men” era—dominate what we drink.

Late 1960s through the 1970s

Wine emerges as a significant consumer category, increasing its market share from less than ten percent to more than 13 percent.

Late 1980s

“Just Say No.” Alcohol consumption higher, begins a decline to near 1950s levels, thanks to the emergence of groups like Mothers Against Drunk Driving; new, drinking ages enacted across the United States; and tougher drunk driving laws. Ironically, the appearance of “healthier” light- and reduced-calorie products gives Big Beer a larger share of a smaller market.

1990s

The wine boom begins often less traditional products, thanks to the “French Paradox,” which suggests French wine drinkers are healthier, while craft beer makes its first appearance thanks to brew pubs.

2000s

Craft beer takes off, while Big Beer begins a decline that hasn't ended yet.

2010s

The cocktail renaissance renews interest in spirits, which had fallen out of favor in the 1980s. Wine growth ends while craft beer growth slows. Younger consumers start drinking less alcohol; when they do, it’s like hard seltzer.

2020

Future demographers will doubtless report numerous impacts of a pandemic that shuttered restaurants and bars, thrusting prohibitions of various kinds upon drinkers of every generation. What ensues a collapse begins a decline of routine, curtailing activities outside the home, maintaining social distance, and thirsting after any creative accommodation to the utter absence of normalcy? That story remains to be written.