Restaurant Nostalgia

By Cheryl Russell

Eating out not what it used to be

On the list of Americans’ favorite activities, going out to eat easily ranks among the top ten. Restaurants play a major role in our daily lives. Or, they played. Now, going out to eat most likely ranks among the top things we miss the most.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of restaurants, pre-COVID. Not only were restaurants a source of sustenance and a convenience, but also a pleasure and a pastime. During an average week, three out of four households in the United States purchased restaurant food, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey. Forty-two percent lined up for fast-food lunches, 34 percent bought fastfood dinners, 28 percent enjoyed dinner at full-service restaurants, 23 percent grabbed fast-food breakfasts, and 20 percent sat down for lunch at full-service restaurants.

Before the coronavirus pandemic, adults aged 18 or older went out to eat (or got takeout) an average of five times a week, according to the USDA’s America’s Eating Habits: Food Away from Home. For those who eat breakfast, that’s nearly one out of every four meals. For those who don’t, it’s more than one in three. It wasn’t always this way, of course. The frequency of going out to eat has been rising for decades, while cooking at home has been on a downward path. Time use data tell the story. Americans aged 18 or older spent 65 minutes a day engaged in meal preparation and cleanup in 1965. In 2019, we devoted only 37 minutes a day to these chores.

All of this changed abruptly in the spring of 2020. In April, food service spending (the money we spend at restaurants and bars) was a stunning 52 percent lower than one year earlier in April 2019. Spending on food service recovered somewhat during the summer, but it remains well below where it was a year ago, according to the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Spending on groceries climbed 29 percent in March 2020 compared to a year earlier and continues to be above normal. Because of these shifts, the food service share of total food spending fell as low as 30 percent in April 2020, down from more than 50 percent in most months of 2018 and 2019.

Food service spending is recovering, but not evenly. Quick-service restaurants (counter service only, no waitstaff) have been able to shift fairly easily to a takeout business model. Full-service restaurants, however, have emptied out due to COVID-19 occupancy limits and the public’s fear of infection, making the pandemic an existential threat to sitdown restaurants. This threat only intensifies as the weather turns colder and diners must decide whether the indoor experience is worth the risk.

The growing dominance of quick-service restaurants in the United States was well underway before coronavirus. The pandemic will hasten the transformation. Between 2000 and 2015, according to the USDA’s study of food away from home trends, the number of quick-service establishments grew 20 percent to become the 54 percent majority of all restaurants. The number of full-service restaurants remained essentially unchanged during those years. In the months ahead, no change is the best that full-service restaurants can hope for.

Divergence in Spending

(percent change in spending at restaurants and bars and at food and beverage stores by month in 2020 versus the same month in 2019)

FEBRUARY

Restaurants & bars +5% Food & beverage stores +3.7%

MARCH

Restaurants & bars -27% Food & beverage stores +29.2%

APRIL

Restaurants & bars -52.4% Food & beverage stores +12.3%

MAY

Restaurants & bars -38.1% Food & beverage stores +14.6%

JUNE

Restaurants & bars -22.9% Food & beverage stores +12%

JULY

Restaurants & bars -19.3% Food & beverage stores +11.1%

AUGUST

Restaurants & bars - -15.7% Food & beverage stores +9.6%

SEPTEMBER

Restaurants & bars -14.4% Food & beverage stores +10.5%

Source: Census Bureau,Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey