By Cheryl Russell
Sizing the Population Up (and Down) Who’s growing and who’s slowing? As Americans, we tend to embrace growth as a sign of health, even when it’s not. Think suburban sprawl and McMansions; all-you-can-eat and “supersize me.” A belief in “bigger is better” makes it hard to adjust when growth slows or even stops. Slowing growth requires businesses to pay more attention to the demographics. No longer able to ride the coattails of universally expanding markets, businesses must become more strategic at targeting pockets of growth. Here is a check-up on demographic growth and decline based on the Census Bureau’s 2019 population estimates. Growing: 65-plus If you’re looking for growth, this is where to find it. No segment of the population is growing faster than 65-plus. The number of people aged 65 or older expanded by 34 percent between 2010 and 2019 as baby-boomers filled the age group. The 65-plus population is growing like gangbusters even among non-Hispanic whites. Percent change in population aged 65-plus by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-19 Asian 77% TOTAL Black 48% 34% Hispanic 65% Non-Hispanic white 27%
Percent change in population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010–19 TOTAL
6%
Growing: Diversity The minority share of the American population climbed to 40 percent in 2019. It is projected to top 50 percent in 2045. Minorities are a growing share of the population in all 50 states (but not in the District of Columbia), in 358 of 364 metropolitan areas, and in 3,012 of the nation’s 3,141 counties, according to Brookings demographer William H. Frey. Minority share of the US population, 2010, 2019 and 2045 projection 2010 36% 2019 40% 2045 50%
Net international migration, 2015 to 2019 2015 1,042,000 2018 702,000 2016 1,047,000 2017 930,000
2019 595,000
Slowing: Natural increase Another reason for the nation’s slowing growth is the ongoing baby bust. With fewer babies being born, deaths outnumbered births last year in 1,430 counties (46 percent of the total), according to demographer Kenneth Johnson of the University of New Hampshire. Nationally, natural increase (births minus deaths) added only 957,000 people to the U.S. population in 2019, the smallest number in more than 50 years and 38 percent less than in 2010. Natural increase in 2010 and 2019 2019 957,000 2010 1,531,000
Growing: Asians, Blacks and Hispanics The Asian, Black, and Hispanic populations all grew by double-digits between 2010 and 2019. There was zero growth in the number of non-Hispanic whites. Asian 28% Black 11% Hispanic 19% Non-Hispanic white 0%
Slowing: Immigration US population growth is slowing to a crawl, with the 2010s likely to be the decade with the slowest population growth in US history. One reason for the slow growth is a precipitous decline in international immigration. A net of only 595,000 immigrants were added to the US population in 2019, the lowest level of the decade and well below the more than 1 million immigrants added to the population in 2015 and 2016.
Screeching Halt: Children One million fewer children: This may be the most dramatic headline of the Census Bureau’s 2019 population estimates. Because of the baby bust, the number of children in the United States fell by 1 million between 2010 and 2019. The decline occurred only among non-Hispanic whites, however. Percent change in population under age 18 by race and Hispanic origin, 2010–19 Asian 16% Black 1% TOTAL Hispanic 9% -1% Non-Hispanic white -8%
Screeching Halt: Non-Hispanic whites There were 536,000 fewer non-Hispanic whites in the US in 2019 than in 2016. The population is shrinking because deaths now outnumber births among non-Hispanic whites. Percent change in non-Hispanic white population by age, 2010–19 Under age 18 8% TOTAL Aged 18 to 64 5% 0% Aged 65-plus ``` 27%
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020
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