EU’s diplomatic presence may also deter repressive actions towards opposition and civil society, as was the case during Armenia’s Velvet Revolution in 2018. While these arguments may be valid in some cases, there can be a number of unintended consequences to cooperation and engagement with authoritarian regimes, which need to be factored into EU external policy. Authoritarian regimes stay in place in part because of their interactions internationally, in particular international financial systems. Similarly, the EU’s pursuit of enhanced cooperation and trade agreements with authoritarian countries like China, Azerbaijan and Cuba reinforces these regimes’ economic and political clout. The unrestricted sale of European surveillance technologies to authoritarian countries such as Syria, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan quite literally supports these regimes’ consolidation of power at the expense of their citizens. 101 Continued acceptance of Saudi Arabia’s flagrant human rights abuses for geopolitical reasons further reinforces this sense of impunity among authoritarian countries. This is counterproductive for the effectiveness of the EU’s democracy support, as well as its long-term global interests. The EU should seriously consider adopting a ‘do no harm’ principle, which should guide all external action, especially in relation to authoritarian regimes.
Geopolitical context of authoritarian competition European foreign policy does not occur in a vacuum, but is influenced by a number of other geopolitical and economic factors. Whereas talk of ‘normative power Europe’ was still backed up by economic leverage a decade ago, Europe does not enjoy the same global standing today. 102 The rise of populist rhetoric, the democratic erosion in some EU states, and the EU’s response to the increase in migration in 2015 have hurt the legitimacy and global standing of the EU as a democracy and values-based global actor. In addition, the EU’s economic weight is slowly decreasing, greatly affecting its economic leverage to push for democratic reforms in trade agreements. Whereas the United States was traditionally a very strong ally of the EU in financial and political support to democracy, the US leadership has become less supportive of democracy support on a rhetorical level. While this does not necessarily dictate decreases in financial support, it nevertheless delegitimises the US’ financial cooperation and weakens political support to democratic reforms. This creates an opening for EU leadership on democracy. However, this would require the EU and EUMS to look past short-term interests of migration and security, towards the long-term sustainability of its partnerships and policy priorities. In the meanwhile, other democratic and authoritarian states are growing in economic and political power. On the one hand, Brazil, India and South Africa are increasingly important economic global
101
See Surveillance Industry Index. Available here.
102
Manners, I., Normative Power Europe: A Contradiction in Terms? (2002).
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