Bruce Lamoureux Senior Chief Executive Providence Health + Services Alaska
Dan Robinson Chief of Research and Analysis Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development
EMPLOYMENT The employment situation is looking better here than in most other places, said Dan Robinson, chief of Research and Analysis for the State’s Department of Labor. “We’re one of a small number of states with a very small job-loss record for last year,” he added. Jobs have been steadily growing by small increments since 2009, Robinson said, “and it looks like 2012 will probably follow the same pattern. Preliminary numbers for 2011, through September, showed a growth of 3,600 jobs, a little less than 1 percent. By industry, health care continues to be a source of growth – it’s roughly up 900 jobs from 2010. Government has been down a little and retail trade hasn’t grown much in the last few years. Oil and gas is up a little, probably closer to flat, and hospitality is up a little.” It’s still early to say much about future trends in the job market, he said. “Things that matter are oil revenue and federal spending. Both are enormously important to Alaska; they’re the two biggest drivers.” November unemployment for Alaska stood at 7.6 percent, at the same time as the national figure stood at 9.1 percent. Washington state’s unemployment was at 9.1 percent; California’s at 12 percent; and Oregon’s at 9.6 percent, Robinson said. “Normally, our figure is 1 or 2 percent above the nation’s, but in 2008, the U.S. rate went higher than Alaska’s and has stayed there,” he added. “Our resource-based economy has made a big difference for us.”•••
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HEALTH CARE Glenn Reed President Pacific Seafood Processors Association
FISHERIES “In Alaska’s fisheries we have the benefit of two certification bodies – State and federal, so the health of the resource is good and well managed,” said Glenn Reed, president of the Pacific Seafood Processors Association. Alaska’s salmon fishery was mixed in 2011, but overall it was a good year, he says. There was a “dramatic reduction” in red crab fisheries in 2011, and 2012 looks uncertain at this point, Reed said. “The red crab fishery may not open in 2012, or there may be a reduction in harvest,” he said. “We won’t know for several months. The opilio crab fishery saw an increase in 2011, but, again, we don’t know next year’s limits. The Bering Sea Pollock fishery will trend down for allowable catch – it looks like a 12 to 14 percent reduction. As for Pollock in the Gulf of Alaska, the trend will be up. The trend for cod will be up in both the Bering Sea and the Gulf. Other groundfish species are generally trending about flat or a little up.” A significant issue facing the fisheries’ industry is the National Ocean Policy initiative coming out of Washington, D.C., Reed noted. It would centralize fisheries’ management in D.C. “We’ve been actively opposing this effort,” he said. We must ensure that we don’t end up with folks in D.C. making decisions on fisheries around the country. The regional folks know their fisheries better.” •••
Predictions for the health care industry in 2012, as Bruce Lamoureux, senior chief executive of Providence Health and Services Alaska saw them, call for more challenges. “The precipitating factors are the economics of health care and the continued escalation of costs,” he said. “Many employers and individual consumers choose to drop coverage because of the expense. That leads to patients delaying care or not seeking it at all until they face an emergency.” “Health care jobs will continue to grow. We know the number of Medicare-aged people in Alaska is expected to triple in the next 20 years. That, alone, means more health care will be needed,” Lamoureux said. Things to watch for in 2012, he added, are what, if anything, materializes from the Affordable Care Act. “A second issue is that each passing day, we have a society approaching a breaking point for lack of affordability.” The third issue Lamoureux says he is watching is incentives and penalties applied to health care deliverance. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid are preparing to launch value-based purchasing, he said, and hospitals that do not perform at a defined threshold are going to see reduction in their Medicare reimbursement. “Overall, I’d say the lack of affordability is unacceptable and outrageous, and if we don’t take care of this ourselves, we’ll suffer the consequence of ignoring the problem. It’s not just physicians who are part of the problem, or hospitals. It’s not just patients, it’s not just employers – we all have a stake in it.” •••
www.akbizmag.com • Alaska Business Monthly • January 2012