Monthly Economic Brief August 2013 issue
Executive summary Growth Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year. On the expenditure side, the growth was driven by Export. On the production side, the growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing. In June, both Manufacturing and Agriculture production recovered from last month. Manufacturing production, however, is still lower than the level a year ago. Private consumption and investment continued to cool down, although the yearͲtoͲdate cumulative level are still higher than last year’s. Export tumbled and registered Ͳ3.7% growth in the first 6 months of 2013. The problem occurred in every main export markets, especially Japan. On the other hand, Import also registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals grew at an impressive 20% in the period. Looking forward, Monetary policies are proͲ growth, with policy rate remains low. Government spending so far this year has been tightening compared with the same period last year.
Confidence in private s Businesses turned pes were more pessimistic more pessimistic.
BOT cut its growth pro drastically from 5.1% t Consensus projection i 5.3% for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ
Employment and wea Unemployment rate d May, the lowest unem major and emerging ec
Thailand’s per capita in 4,420 in 2011, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector is worsened. simistic while Industries c. Consumer were also
ojection for 2013 to 4.2% in July. is now between 4.4Ͳ Ͳ5.0% for 2014.
alth distribution ecreased to 0.77% in mployment level among conomies.
ncome was at USD 83rd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Stability Both Head line and Core inflation decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85%, a rather low level by historical and international standards. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio is at 15.9%, a rather healthy level. Total system’s NPL decreased as percent to total loan in 1Q13. Fiscal balance is improving. Budget balance for the first 6 months of 2013 turned positive. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 44% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment in the first 6 months of 2013 is positive thanks to capital inflow. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. THB depreciated 0.1% against a basket of key currencies in July.
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
Page 4
7 13 21 27 30 33
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
36
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
39
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total system’s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
49 53
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
66
43
59
3
GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from a ye projections for the year Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%
CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3% 2.2%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ear ago, in line with consensus
7.8% 6.5% 5.3%
5%
0.1%
-2.3%
08 2009 2010 2011 2012
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Manufacturing is still the main fo
Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 1Q13 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 5.3
GDP
14.8
Hotel&Res Construction
10.5
Mining
10.5
Financial
10.1 9.5
Other social
8.7
Transport Trading
5.0
Manufacture
4.8 4.4
RealEstate
3.0
Utilities
2.0
Agriculture -0.1
Health&Social
-0.6
PublicAdmin -3.4
Education Private HH
-4.9
Fishing -6.7 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
orce behind 1Q13 GDP growth
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 1Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 5.3
GDP 1.9
Manufacture 0.8
Transport Trading
0.7
Hotel&Res
0.6 0.4
Financial Mining
0.2
Other social
0.2
Construction
0.2
RealEstate
0.2
Agriculture
0.2
Utilities
0.1
Health&Social
0.0
Private HH
0.0
PublicAdmin
0.0
Education
-0.1
Fishing
-0.1
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Export contributed the most to to
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 1Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
5.3
X
8.4
ͲM
8.2
I
7.0
I (capital)
6.0
C G
4.2
2.2
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
otal real GDP growth in 1Q13
Q13 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 1Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
5.3
X
6.0
C
2.1
I (capital)
1.3
I (Inventory)
0.4
G
0.2
Discrpncy ͲM
-0.1
-4.6
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total system’s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
7
Manufacturing production rose fr year ago
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
4.1% 172.4 159.5
190.2
179.1 166.3
149.9 137.6 123.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
rom May but is still lower than a
Monthly Average 250.0
173.6
177.9
200.0
2012
2013
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM +0.9% YͲoͲY Ͳ3.5%
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
In June, most sectors had lower p
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector June 2013, percent 13.8
Electrical
11.2
Metal products Tobacco
7.8
Apparel
7.3
Mineral
6.7
Vehicles
5.8
Chemical
5.8 2.7
Textiles Rubber&Plastic
1.3
Wood products
0.9
Basic Mat
0.5 -1.4
Electronic
-2.8
Paper
-4.9
Food & Bev Machineries
-5.7
Transport Equip
-6.1
Leather
-6.3 -7.6
Furniture Petroleum
-12.1
Office automate
-12.2
Precision instru-16.8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
production from last month
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector June 2013, percent -3.7 -5.9 -0.7 22.1 -1.0 -6.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 -10.0 1.3 4.4 -6.9 -9.1 -4.0 2.9 3.6 -6.3 -2.5 13.4 4.3
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Capacity utilization rate decrease
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70%
64.1%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
ed slightly in June
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector June 2013, percent Precision instru Vehicles Chemical Machineries Electrical Transport Equip Mineral Paper Petroleum Rubber&Plastic Office automate Metal products Electronic Apparel Food & Bev Basic Mat Tobacco Textiles Leather Furniture Wood products
117% 104% 90% 85% 83% 78% 75% 68% 64% 64% 62% 62% 53% 53% 49% 49% 47% 43% 31% 29% 20%
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Thailand has the lowest growth in a year ago
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago China Ͳ Jun Indonesia Ͳ May Pakistan Ͳ Apr Australia Ͳ Q1 Malaysia Ͳ May Singapore Ͳ May US Ͳ Jun Brazil Ͳ May Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 -0.2
Russia Ͳ Jun
-0.4
Taiwan Ͳ Jun
-1.1
Japan Ͳ May Euro Area Ͳ May
-1.3
South Korea Ͳ May
-1.4 -1.6
India Ͳ May Thailand Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist
-3.5
n manufacturing production from
x 8.9 5.1 4.8 3.6 3.4 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.5
11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Improvement in Agriculture prod
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100) CAGR
3.3%
106.1
113.0 112.5 109.3 110.9
100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
uction in June
Monthly Average 250.0
128.6
122.4
200.0
YͲoͲY +8.5% MͲoͲM +3.0%
150.0
100.0
2013
2012
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total system’s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
13
Private consumption picked up sl
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
3.2%
111.2
117.8
126.2 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2 127.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
ightly from last month
Index* Monthly Average 160.0
147.0
155.0
139.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
2013
2012 145.0
140.0
MͲoͲM +0.2%
135.0
YͲoͲY +0.7%
130.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Most consumption expenditures year Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 6 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent 38
Passenger Car (Unit) 12.1
Commercial Car (Unit) NGV (kg.)*
11.0
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
10.3
Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
7.9
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
5.1
Diesel (litre)
4.6
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
4.0
LPG (litre)*
4.0
Motocycle (Unit)
0.2
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
grew impressively so far this
.3
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change June vs May 2013, percent -8.7 -3.5 3.5 2.0 0.4 -2.5 0.2 0.9 0.0 -3.1
15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment continued to d
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
6.9%
172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8
193.0
183.4 160.8
133.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
drop in June
Monthly Average 300.0
2013 250.0
2012 242.1 200.0
210.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.3%
YͲoͲY Ͳ4.1%
50.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
All key private investment expend far this year despite set back in M Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 6 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
29.1
13.8
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
Import of Capital Goods -1.1 (2000 prices, Baht)
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
10.8
4.8
ditures had impressive growth so May Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change June vs May 2013, percent
-4.8
0.3
-1.6
0.5
0.2
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Cumulative FDI in the first 5 mont from the same period last year Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD 11,331
9,460
9,112 8,547 7,778
4,853
06FY
07FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
ths of 2013 matches the value
Monthly cumulative FDI* 8,000 7,000
2012
6,000
7,235
12FY
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
2013 0
J
F M A M J
J
A
S O N D
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BOI’s net application for the first level from the same period last ye
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht
CAGR
21.5%
396 351 297 236
08FY
09FY
10FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
11FY
6 months of 2013 matches the ear
irect investment*
648
12FY
278
279
2012/6M
2013/6M
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most property indicators increase
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 5 months of 2013 vs those of 2012, percent
27
Value of land transaction
21.0
New housing unit
9.8
Condo unit registered
Constr. Area in municipal
4.7
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ed in May
7.0
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change May vs April 2013, percent
-1.0
64.5
53.9
42.7
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total system’s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
21
Export has decreased in the first 5 decrease in “Other export”
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 6 months of 2013 vs that of 2012, percent Total export Metal Automotive Chemicals Optical instru Forestry PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Furniture Electrical Toiletries Apparels Jewellery Machinery Footware Agro products Agriculture Electronics Aircrafts Photo instru Petroleum Mining Fishery Other export ReͲexports
-3.7
24.4 9.1 7.6 6.8 5.0 2.9 2.5 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -1.4 -3.5 -6.0 -7.0 -7.4 -7.4 -8.8 -15.4 -16.9 -26.3 -28.0 -59.8 -94.4
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
5 months due mainly in the Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions
4
Contributions to total export growth Total export-3.7 Automotive Metal Chemicals PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Optical instru Forestry Electrical Furniture ReͲexports Toiletries Footware Apparels Jewellery Aircrafts Photo instru Mining Machinery Fishery Agriculture Agro products Petroleum Electronics Other export
1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6
22 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Export decreased in every regions the worst performing market Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term 100% = Middle East EU Japan NAFTA Rest of the world
7.1 (Trilli
5.9
5.2
6.1
6.7
5.4
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
13.2
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
11.3
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
12.2
11.7
11.1
11.3
18.4
18.1
17.4
18.1
21.0
21.0
12.7 16.6
East Asia exͲJapan
18.3
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
22.5
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.7
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
s so far this year, with Japan as
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 6 months of 2013 vs 2012
ion) -0.7%
-3.7%
EU
-4.3%
East Asia ex Japan
-4.4%
Rest of the world
-4.6%
-5.4%
-7.0%
ASEAN
NAFTA
Middle East
Japan 23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Import has decreased in the first decrease in intermediate goods
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 6 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
-0.3
Total import
17
Others
3.1
Consumer goods
-1.1
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
Capital goods
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-2.7
-4.7
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
6 months of 2013, driven by the
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions
7.7
Contributions to total import growth
-0.3
Total import
2.1
Others
0.2
Consumer goods
-0.2
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
Capital goods
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-0.6
-1.8
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals increased 20% in t
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
8.4%
15.9 13.8 10.8
11.7
14.5
14.1
11.5
10.0
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism
the first 6 months of 2013
Monthly cumulative 25.0
22.3 19.2
Y 11FY 12FY
20.0
2012
15.0
10.0
5.0
2013 0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
China accounted for more than ha arrivals so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world
14.3
15.3
15.6
14.7
13.9
Americas
6.2
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.2
Europe
27.3
East Asia
28.7
27.9
52.1
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.1
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
alf of the total increase in tourist
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 6 months of 2013 vs 2012, Thousands 1,110.4
China 239.5
Russia Malaysia Japan
163.8 108.1
% of total change 52% 11% 8% 5%
Indonesia
79.1
4%
Korea
73.8
3%
Hong Kong
70.2
3%
Taiwan
66.0
3%
Singapore
59.6
3%
Germany
42.0
2%
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total system’s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
27
No change in policy rate as well a market in July Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Aug-12
3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Jul-13
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Aug-12
0.00% Jul-13
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
s other interest rates in the
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Jul-13
Aug-12
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Aug-12
anches
0.00% Jul-13
28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
9% decrease in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2013 0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in the first 6 months of 2013
2012
J
A
S
O
N
D
29
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total system’s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
30
Businesses turned pessimistic wh pessimistic in June Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
51.1 50
51.2
54.4
53.9 48.8
49.9
Worse
0 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
hile Industries were more
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
97.3
95.5
93.5
92.9
94.3
93.1
Worse
0 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumers in overall were more
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index Overall
150
O
150
Better
Better
100
100 Worse
Worse
50
50 Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Feb-1
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 200 100 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior m Over 100 means consumer confidence is better than those of th Under 100 means consumer confidence is worse than those of t
Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTC
pessimistic in June
On job
On future income
150
Better 100 Worse
50 3
Apr-13
month he prior month the prior month
CC
Jun-13
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
32 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
33
BOT cut its growth projection for
Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 6.00
5.50
FPO BOT
5.00
NESDB 4.50 The Economist poll
4.00
3.50
3.00 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
2013 drastically in July
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00
5.50
BOT
5.00
4.50
The Economist poll
4.00
3.50
3.00 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Forecast as of, month ending 34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth projections are other economies
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of Jul 27th 2013 7.5
China Philippines India Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia Thailand Pakistan South Korea Russia
5.9 5.8 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5
Hong Kong Australia Taiwan Singapore Brazil US Japan Euro Area -0.6
Source: The Economist
2.3 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8
e in the middle compared to
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of Jul 27th 2013 7.4 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.7 2.8 3.0 3.7 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.8 35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
36
Unemployment rate decreased sl
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.16
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
ightly to 0.77% in May
Monthly Average 1.20
1.00
0.80
2012 0.60
2013
0.40
0.68
0.66
11-Avg 12-Avg
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ May Singapore Ͳ Q1 South Korea Ͳ Jun
0.8 1.9 3.1
Malaysia Ͳ May
3.3
Hong Kong Ͳ Jun
3.3
Vietnam Ͳ 2011
3.6
China Ͳ Q2
4.1
Japan Ͳ May
4.1
Taiwan Ͳ Jun
4.2
Russia Ͳ Jun Australia Ͳ Jun Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Brazil Ͳ Jun Pakistan Ͳ 2011 Philippines Ͳ Q2 US Ͳ Jun India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ May Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
5.4 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.6 9.9 12.2
38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
39
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
40
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 41
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
42
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
43
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
45
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, Atlas method (current US$) Norway (1) Qatar (2) Luxembourg (3) Switzerland (4) Denmark (5) Sweden (6) Netherlands (7) US (8) Finland (9) Austria (10) Belgium (11) Canada (12) Japan (13) Germany (14) Singapore (15) France (16) UAE (17) Ireland (18) UK (19) Italy (20) Hong Kong (21) Iceland (22) Spain (23) Israel (24) Greece (25)
Source: The World Bank
60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 88,890 80,440 78,130
76,380
Czech Republic (29) Hungary (36) Brazil (46) Turkey (47) Argentina (49) Mexico (51) Malaysia (53) South Africa (65) Colombia (69) China (78) Thailand (83) Ecuador (85) Ukraine (100) Indonesia (103) Iraq (108) Egypt (109) Sri Lanka (110) Philippines (113) Bhutan (115) India (122) Vietnam (124) Nigeria (127) Lao PDR (130) Cambodia (139) Bangladesh (142)
18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770 46
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th to 81st, with GNI per capita almos
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Luxembourg (2) Norway (3) Singapore (4) Switzerland (5) Hong Kong (6) US (7) UAE (8) Netherlands (9) Sweden (10) Austria (11) Denmark (12) Germany (13) Canada (14) Belgium (15) Australia (16) Finland (17) UK (18) France (19) Japan (20) Ireland (21) Italy (22) Spain (23) Iceland (24) Korea, Rep. (25)
Source: The World Bank
64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370
hailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rank improved slightly st the same as China
es
( ) = World rank 86,440
Israel (26) Greece (30) Saudi Arabia (31) Czech Republic (33) Russia (36) Croatia (40) Turkey (44) Malaysia (47) Mexico (48) Mauritius (55) Brazil (63) South Africa (68) China (80) Thailand (81) Bhutan (92) Sri Lanka (93) Indonesia (102) Philippines (106) India (112) Vietnam (116) Lao PDR (119) Cambodia (126) Bangladesh (132) Nepal (145) Ethiopia (150)
27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110 47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
49
Both Head line and Core inflation
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
Head line
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
Core*
0.50%
0.00% Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
n continued to decrease in July
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product July 2013, percent Tobacco & alcohol
7.3
Meat
6.8
Energy
5.5
Veg & fruit
4.4
Eggs & milk
4.4
Transport & Commu
2.0
Housing & furnishing
1.3
Food away from home
1.3
Rice
1.2
Prepared food at home
1.1
Apparel and footware
0.9
Non alcoholic beverage
0.8
Medical care
0.8
Seasoning
0.7
Recreation & Education
0.4
50 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
India Ͳ Jun Vietnam Ͳ Jul Russia Ͳ Jun
6
Brazil Ͳ Jun
6.7
Indonesia Ͳ Jun
5.9
Pakistan Ͳ Jun
5.9 4.2
Hong Kong Ͳ Jun Philippines Ͳ Jun
2.8
China Ͳ Jun
2.7 2.4
Australia Ͳ Q2
2.0
Thailand Ͳ Jul Malaysia Ͳ Jun
1.8
Singapore Ͳ Jun
1.8
US Ͳ Jun
1.8 1.6
Euro Area Ͳ Jun
1.0
South Korea Ͳ Jun
0.6
Taiwan Ͳ Jun Japan Ͳ May
-0.3
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
he low side compared to other
2013* 9.9
9.6
7.3
6.9
.9
6.2 6.5
7
6.9 6.3 4.1 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 1.9 3.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.1
51 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Mild inflation at the Producer lev
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
vel
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product July 2013, percent Fishing Livestocks Metal Petroluem products Leather & footware Food NonͲmetallic mineral Transport equip Wood Chemical Energy Forestry Forestry Forestry Mechinery Electrical equip Crop Basic metals Rubber & plastic Other manu goods
30.8 20.4 3.8 3.0 2.9 2.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -2.5 -3.8 -7.2 -8.6
52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
53
Bank’s loan continued to increase decreased slightly in May Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 8,800 8,600 8,400 Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
No
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95%
92.4%
91.9%
Jun-12
Jul-12
90.8%
91.4%
91.1%
9
90% 85%
Source: Bank of Thailand
Aug-12 Sep-12
Oct-12 N
e while liquidity in the system
M-o-M +1.1% Y-o-Y +12.2%
ov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
93.9%
93.4%
93.5%
93.3%
it* ratio
92.2%
93.1%
93.1%
Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13
Apr-13 May-13
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL increased in amount bu total loan in the first quarter this
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
477
05YE
445
06YE
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
10Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans 8.16%
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85%
3.60
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
07YE
08YE
09YE
10Y
ut decreased as percentage of year
ss NPLs Outstanding
7
YE
270
256
11YE
12YE
257
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
0%
YE
2.75%
11YE
2.26%
12YE
2.18%
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio decreased to
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
16.1%
14.9% 13.4%
13.3%
1 14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
15.9% in May, still a healthy level
nks* Month End 16.5%
16.2%
14.8%
16.0%
2013
15.5%
2012
15.0%
14.5%
2011
anches
2012
14.0%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the many coun rates Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of July 27th 2013
൞
3M riskͲfree interest rates 11.1
India 9.0
Pakistan
8.5
Brazil
7.4
Russia
7.0
Vietnam
6.1
Indonesia 4.7
China 3.1
Malaysia Australia
2.7
South Korea
2.7 2.3
Thailand Philippines
1.1
Taiwan
0.9
Singapore
0.5
Hong Kong
0.4
US
0.3
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
tries with negative real interest
=
Expected 2013 inflation*
Real interest rates
9.6
1.5
6.3
2.7
6.5
2.0
6.2
1.2
6.9
0.1
6.9
-0.8
2.7
2.0
1.9
1.2
2.4
0.3
2.0
0.7
2.5
-0.2
3.3
-2.2
1.3
-0.4 3.8 4.1
0.1
-3.3 -3.7
1.5
-1.2
1.5
-1.3 0.1
57
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SET decreased another 2% in July seemed to stop Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end
4.6% 1.3%
2.4%
-2.0%
-2.2% -7.1%
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0
D-12 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
E
y but the foreign big sell out Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2012 Percent, as of July 24th 2013 Japan (Nikkei 225)
41.7%
Pakistan (KSE)
40.6%
US (DJIA)
18.6%
US (NAScomp)
18.5%
US (S&P 500)
18.2% 12.3%
UK (FTSE 100) Germany (DAX)
10.1%
Indonesia (JSX)
9.3%
France (CAC 40)
8.8%
Thailand (SET)
7.9%
Australia (All Ord.)
7.7%
Malaysia (KLSE)
7.2%
Taiwan (TWI)
6.5%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
5.4%
Singapore (STI)
3.4%
India (BSE)
3.4%
HK (Hang Seng)
-3.0%
S Korea (KOSPI)
-4.3%
China (SSEB, $ terms)
-4.4%
China (SSEA)-10.4%
58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
59
Huge government budget deficit r slightly better than in 2009
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4% 0.3% 0.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6%
-1.7 -2.0%
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
relative to GDP in 2012, only
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
-1.1%-1.1%
-1.3%
% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
08FY
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY 60
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The government managed to ach first 6 months of 2013, big improv Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1
Revenue 1,013
1,109
16
0
Budget balance -996
-1,109
1,241
-36
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1,484
110 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ieve budget surplus during the vement from last year
Monthly cumulative Budget balance 100.0 ,751
1,902
2,079 0.0
2013
-100.0
-75
-28 -410 -200.0
2012
-300.0
1,825
-1,930 -400.0 -2,489
-500.0
0FY 11FY 12FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
61 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Budget balance for the first 6 mon while Cash balance is +51 Billion B Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110
16
24
0
88
8
-36 -45
-1 -144 -174
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
nths of 2013 is +35 Billion Baht Baht
plus)
35
51
-28 -75
00 -96
-137
-266
-364 -401
-410 -466
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
'13/6mo
62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit in 2013 is GDP
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2013*, percent Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan China Indonesia Brazil Thailand Euro Area Malaysia
-
US
-4. -5.0
Vietnam
-5.1
India Japan Pakistan Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-8.4 -8.8
expected to be around 3% of
ercentage of GDP 2.0 0.7 0.4 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.2
-4.2
5
63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt so
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%
2010
2011
2012
8%
8%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
May-13 6%
Ext as
o far in 2013
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2009
ternal debt percent of total
2010
2011
2012
May-13
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2012 or latest 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan
219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
9
ta
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 74 Denmark 76 Thailand 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia
56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11
65
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 1Q13 grew 5.3% from Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production recover • Private consumption and investme • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses turned pessimistic; Con • BOT cut its growth projection for 2 projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased slig countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL decreased as percent to total l • Budget balance for the first 6 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB depreciate 0.1% in
a year ago, in line with consensus projections for the year he growth was driven mainly by Export anufacturing is still the main force behind the growth ed from last month but still lower than a year ago nt started to show signs of slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened sumer more pessimistic 013 drastically from 5.1% to 4.2% in July; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
ghtly to 0.77% in May, still a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in July to 2% and 0.85% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.9% in May. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oan in 1Q13. ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not n July.
66
Positive Balance of Payments in t largely to capital inflow
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.7
24.1
5.3 1.2 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
0.2 12FY
13/6mo
he first 6 months of 2013 due Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
on
29.8
17.3
17.0 8.3 -0.8
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/6mo
Net service income & transfer -5.6
+
-15.2
08FY
-10.7
-3.0
-11.1 -19.7
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/6mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 22.5
21.3 2.2
2.5
4.0
12FY
13/6mo
-4.7 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
67
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Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q1
1
Taiwan Ͳ Q1 6.5%
Vietnam Ͳ 2011
5.7%
Malaysia Ͳ Q1 South Korea Ͳ May
3.1%
Philippines Ͳ Mar
3.1%
Russia Ͳ Q2
2.3%
China Ͳ Q1
1.9%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q1
1.8%
Euro Area Ͳ May
1.6%
Japan Ͳ May
0.9%
Thailand Ͳ Q1
0.8%
Pakistan Ͳ Q2
-1.2%
Indonesia Ͳ Q1
-2.6%
US Ͳ Q1
-2.8%
Brazil Ͳ Jun
-3.2%
Australia Ͳ Q1
-3.3%
India Ͳ Q1 Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-4.5%
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.0%
48.2
11.3%
49.9 0.2 15.9 57.8 10.2 47.9 217.2 2.2 235.8 55.9 2.6 -2.3 -26.2 -425.7 -72.5 -51.1 -87.8
68 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Worsened trade balance so far in than import Chart 5.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* decomposition Billion Baht
ŕľ&#x17E;
Cumulative Export 8,000 7,000
2012
Cumulative 8,000 7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
2013
Y-o-Y -3.7%
0
1,000
201
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
J F M A
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
2013 as export dropped more
=
Import
3
Cumulative Trade balance 0
-100
2012
2012
-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600
Y-o-Y -0.3%
M J J A S O N D
stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion
-700 -800
J F M A M J J A S O N D
69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in b terms Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
04YE
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.9%
04YE
37.0%
38.5%
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
08YE
both absolute and relative to GDP
E
09YE
%
28.8%
E
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.8%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/1Q
38.8%
40.0%
12YE
13/1Q
70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
More public debt and more longͲ composition in 2013 Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
8%
92%
09YE
13%
87%
10YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
15%
20%
23%
85%
80%
77%
11YE
12YE
13/1Q
term debt in external debt
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
56%
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
45%
46%
44%
55%
54%
56%
11YE
12YE
13/1Q
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt
418% 370% 340%
330%
299%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
286%
13/1Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
8.2% 7.6%
4.8%
4.7%
4.2% 3.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/1Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves decrea still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
54.4
55.9
2004
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
9.1 6.9
2004
5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased slightly so far this year but
191.7
206.4
205.8
194.5
2011
2012
Jun-13
154.1
0
8
2009
2010
er of months of import** 13.8
12.6 10.8
8
2009
the last 12 months
2010
2011
10.0
2012
9.1
Jun-13
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB depreciated slightly in July
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
114.0
Baht appreciates
112.0
110.0
108.0
106.0
MͲoͲM
Ͳ0.1%
Baht depreciates Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
104.0
102.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
98.0
5.5%
96.0 94.0 Jul-13
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
e
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of July 31st 2013 EUR Ͳ 41.8699
7.2
MXN Ͳ 2.4671
3.2
0
CNY Ͳ 5.1854
2.9
0
KRW Ͳ 0.0282
0
VND Ͳ 0.0015
0
0
0
0
1.1 0.0
TWD Ͳ 1.051
-0.5
USD Ͳ 31.4894
-0.7
SGD Ͳ 24.883
-2.8
GBP Ͳ 48.0764
-3.8
MYR Ͳ 9.8022
-3.9
PHP Ͳ 0.7307
-4.6
INR Ͳ 0.5538
-8.2
IDR Ͳ 3.2298
-11.8
AUD Ͳ 28.5825 JPY Ͳ 32.2952
-14.7 -20.8
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates 74
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