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Monthly  Economic  Brief  August 2013 issue


Executivesummary Growth RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%fromayearago, inlinewithconsensusprojectionsforthe year.Ontheexpenditureside,thegrowth wasdrivenbyExport.Ontheproductionside, thegrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceof Manufacturing. InJune,bothManufacturingandAgriculture productionrecoveredfromlastmonth. Manufacturingproduction,however,isstill lowerthanthelevelayearago.Private consumptionandinvestmentcontinuedto cooldown,althoughtheyearͲtoͲdate cumulativelevelarestillhigherthanlast year’s. ExporttumbledandregisteredͲ3.7%growth inthefirst6 monthsof2013.Theproblem occurredineverymainexportmarkets, especiallyJapan.Ontheotherhand,Import alsoregisteredanegativegrowth,drivenby lowerintermediategoodsimport.Tourist arrivalsgrewatanimpressive20%inthe period. Lookingforward,MonetarypoliciesareproͲ growth,withpolicyrateremainslow. Governmentspendingsofarthisyearhas beentighteningcomparedwiththesame periodlastyear.

Confidenceinprivates Businessesturnedpes weremorepessimistic morepessimistic.

BOTcutitsgrowthpro drasticallyfrom5.1%t Consensusprojectioni 5.3%for2013and4.7Ͳ

Employmentandwea Unemploymentrated May,thelowestunem majorandemergingec

Thailand’spercapitain 4,420in2011,ranked averageThaiisslightly averageChinesebutm richerthananaverage Incomedistributionis buttherehasbeenove thepasttwodecades, Bangkok.Povertyhead havedeclinedoverthe


sectorisworsened. simisticwhileIndustries c.Consumerwerealso

ojectionfor2013 to4.2%inJuly. isnowbetween4.4Ͳ Ͳ5.0%for2014.

althdistribution ecreasedto0.77%in mploymentlevelamong conomies.

ncomewasatUSD 83rd intheworld.An ypoorerthanan morethanthreetimes eIndian.Thailand’s amongtheworstinAsia erallimprovementover exceptforonlyin dcountandpovertyrate elastdecade.

Stability BothHeadlineandCoreinflationdecreased againinJulyto2%and0.85%,aratherlow levelbyhistoricalandinternationalstandards. Bankingsystemisquitestable.Bank’scapital ratioisat15.9%,aratherhealthylevel.Total system’sNPLdecreasedaspercenttototal loanin1Q13. Fiscalbalanceisimproving.Budgetbalance forthefirst6 monthsof2013turnedpositive. PublicdebtaspercentageofGDPincreased slightlysofarthisyearduemainlytodirect governmentdebt,butthecurrentlevelof 44%isnotyetdangerous.Majorityofthe publicdebtisdomesticbased. BalanceofPaymentinthefirst6monthsof 2013ispositivethankstocapitalinflow. Externaldebtincreasedslightlybutcapability torepayisnotaconcernasdebtserviceratio remainedlowandinternationalreservesisat healthylevel.THBdepreciated0.1%againsta basketofkeycurrenciesinJuly.

2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

Page 4

7 13 21 27 30 33

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

36

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

39

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystem’s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

49 53

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

66

43

59

3


GDPin1Q13grew5.3%fromaye projectionsfortheyear Chart1.05– HistoricalRealGDPgrowthrate Annualgrowth,percent 7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%

CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 =4.3% 2.2%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


earago,inlinewithconsensus

7.8% 6.5% 5.3%

5%

0.1%

-2.3%

08 2009 2010 2011 2012

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Manufacturingisstillthemainfo

Chart1.06a– Realgrowthbysector,1Q13 YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange 5.3

GDP

14.8

Hotel&Res Construction

10.5

Mining

10.5

Financial

10.1 9.5

Othersocial

8.7

Transport Trading

5.0

Manufacture

4.8 4.4

RealEstate

3.0

Utilities

2.0

Agriculture -0.1

Health&Social

-0.6

PublicAdmin -3.4

Education PrivateHH

-4.9

Fishing -6.7 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


orcebehind1Q13GDPgrowth

Chart1.06b– Sectoralcontributions,1Q13 ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth 5.3

GDP 1.9

Manufacture 0.8

Transport Trading

0.7

Hotel&Res

0.6 0.4

Financial Mining

0.2

Othersocial

0.2

Construction

0.2

RealEstate

0.2

Agriculture

0.2

Utilities

0.1

Health&Social

0.0

PrivateHH

0.0

PublicAdmin

0.0

Education

-0.1

Fishing

-0.1

5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Exportcontributedthemosttoto

Chart1.08a– Realgrowthbyexpenditure,1Q YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange GDP

5.3

X

8.4

ͲM

8.2

I

7.0

I(capital)

6.0

C G

4.2

2.2

Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


otalrealGDPgrowthin1Q13

Q13 Chart1.08b– ExpenditureContributions,1Q13 ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth GDP

5.3

X

6.0

C

2.1

I(capital)

1.3

I(Inventory)

0.4

G

0.2

Discrpncy ͲM

-0.1

-4.6

ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services

6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystem’s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

7


Manufacturingproductionrosefr yearago

Chart1.11– ManufacturingProductionIndex (2000=100) CAGR

4.1% 172.4 159.5

190.2

179.1 166.3

149.9 137.6 123.9

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics


romMaybutisstilllowerthana

MonthlyAverage 250.0

173.6

177.9

200.0

2012

2013

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM +0.9% YͲoͲY Ͳ3.5%

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


InJune,mostsectorshadlowerp

Chart1.12a– YͲonͲYchangeinMPIbysector June2013,percent 13.8

Electrical

11.2

Metalproducts Tobacco

7.8

Apparel

7.3

Mineral

6.7

Vehicles

5.8

Chemical

5.8 2.7

Textiles Rubber&Plastic

1.3

Woodproducts

0.9

BasicMat

0.5 -1.4

Electronic

-2.8

Paper

-4.9

Food&Bev Machineries

-5.7

TransportEquip

-6.1

Leather

-6.3 -7.6

Furniture Petroleum

-12.1

Officeautomate

-12.2

Precisioninstru-16.8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis


productionfromlastmonth

Chart1.12b– MͲonͲMchangeinMPIbysector June2013,percent -3.7 -5.9 -0.7 22.1 -1.0 -6.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 -10.0 1.3 4.4 -6.9 -9.1 -4.0 2.9 3.6 -6.3 -2.5 13.4 4.3

9

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capacityutilizationratedecrease

Chart1.13a– OverallCapacityUtilizationRate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70%

64.1%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics


edslightlyinJune

Chart1.13b– Capacityutilizationratebysector June2013,percent Precisioninstru Vehicles Chemical Machineries Electrical TransportEquip Mineral Paper Petroleum Rubber&Plastic Officeautomate Metalproducts Electronic Apparel Food&Bev BasicMat Tobacco Textiles Leather Furniture Woodproducts

117% 104% 90% 85% 83% 78% 75% 68% 64% 64% 62% 62% 53% 53% 49% 49% 47% 43% 31% 29% 20%

10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandhasthelowestgrowthin ayearago

Chart1.14– ManufacturingProductionIndex Latest,percentchangeonyearago ChinaͲJun IndonesiaͲMay PakistanͲApr AustraliaͲQ1 MalaysiaͲMay SingaporeͲMay USͲJun BrazilͲMay HongKongͲQ1 -0.2

RussiaͲJun

-0.4

TaiwanͲJun

-1.1

JapanͲMay EuroAreaͲMay

-1.3

SouthKoreaͲMay

-1.4 -1.6

IndiaͲMay ThailandͲJun Source: The Economist

-3.5


nmanufacturingproductionfrom

x 8.9 5.1 4.8 3.6 3.4 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.5

11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ImprovementinAgricultureprod

Chart1.10– Agricultureproductionindex (2005=100) CAGR

3.3%

106.1

113.0 112.5 109.3 110.9

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a


uctioninJune

MonthlyAverage 250.0

128.6

122.4

200.0

YͲoͲY +8.5% MͲoͲM +3.0%

150.0

100.0

2013

2012

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

12 nd Cooperatives

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystem’s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

13


Privateconsumptionpickedupsl

Chart1.15– CompositePrivateConsumptionI (2000=100) CAGR

3.2%

111.2

117.8

126.2 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2 127.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Note:(*)seasonallyadjusted Source: Bank of Thailand


ightlyfromlastmonth

Index* MonthlyAverage 160.0

147.0

155.0

139.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

2013

2012 145.0

140.0

MͲoͲM +0.2%

135.0

YͲoͲY +0.7%

130.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Mostconsumptionexpenditures year Chart1.16a– YͲonͲYchange First6monthsof2013vs 2012,percent 38

PassengerCar(Unit) 12.1

CommercialCar(Unit) NGV(kg.)*

11.0

Benzene&Gasohol(litre)

10.3

Realimportofconsumergoods(2000 prices,US$)

7.9

HHelectricity(kilowatt/hour)

5.1

Diesel(litre)

4.6

RealVAT(2000prices,baht)

4.0

LPG(litre)*

4.0

Motocycle(Unit)

0.2

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


grewimpressivelysofarthis

.3

Chart1.16b– MͲonͲMchange JunevsMay2013,percent -8.7 -3.5 3.5 2.0 0.4 -2.5 0.2 0.9 0.0 -3.1

15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


PrivateInvestmentcontinuedtod

Chart1.17– PrivateInvestmentIndex (2000=100)

CAGR

6.9%

172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8

193.0

183.4 160.8

133.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand


dropinJune

MonthlyAverage 300.0

2013 250.0

2012 242.1 200.0

210.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.3%

YͲoͲY Ͳ4.1%

50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Allkeyprivateinvestmentexpend farthisyeardespitesetbackinM Chart1.18a– YͲonͲYchange First6monthsof2013vs 2012,percent

Domesticcommercialcar sales(unit)

29.1

13.8

DomesticCementsales(ton)

DomesticMachinerysales* (2000prices,Baht)

ConstructionAreapermitted (sqm)

ImportofCapitalGoods -1.1 (2000prices,Baht)

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

10.8

4.8


ditureshadimpressivegrowthso May Chart1.18b– MͲonͲMchange JunevsMay2013,percent

-4.8

0.3

-1.6

0.5

0.2

17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CumulativeFDIinthefirst5mont fromthesameperiodlastyear Chart5.14– ForeignDirectInvestment MillionUSD 11,331

9,460

9,112 8,547 7,778

4,853

06FY

07FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY


thsof2013matchesthevalue

MonthlycumulativeFDI* 8,000 7,000

2012

6,000

7,235

12FY

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

2013 0

J

F M A M J

J

A

S O N D

18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


BOI’snetapplicationforthefirst levelfromthesameperiodlastye

Chart5.15– BOInetapplicationofforeigndi BillionBaht

CAGR

21.5%

396 351 297 236

08FY

09FY

10FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

11FY


6monthsof2013matchesthe ear

irectinvestment*

648

12FY

278

279

2012/6M

2013/6M

19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Mostpropertyindicatorsincrease

Chart1.19a– YͲonͲYchange First5monthsof2013vs thoseof2012,percent

27

Valueoflandtransaction

21.0

Newhousingunit

9.8

Condounitregistered

Constr.Areainmunicipal

4.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


edinMay

7.0

Chart1.19b– MͲonͲMchange MayvsApril2013,percent

-1.0

64.5

53.9

42.7

20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystem’s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

21


Exporthasdecreasedinthefirst5 decreasein“Otherexport”

Chart5.05a– YTDannualchangeinExportin First6monthsof2013vs thatof2012,percent Totalexport Metal Automotive Chemicals Opticalinstru Forestry PetroͲchemical Othermanufacturing Furniture Electrical Toiletries Apparels Jewellery Machinery Footware Agroproducts Agriculture Electronics Aircrafts Photoinstru Petroleum Mining Fishery Otherexport ReͲexports

-3.7

24.4 9.1 7.6 6.8 5.0 2.9 2.5 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -1.4 -3.5 -6.0 -7.0 -7.4 -7.4 -8.8 -15.4 -16.9 -26.3 -28.0 -59.8 -94.4

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


5monthsduemainlyinthe Baht Chart5.05b– Sectoralcontributions

4

Contributionstototalexportgrowth Totalexport-3.7 Automotive Metal Chemicals PetroͲchemical Othermanufacturing Opticalinstru Forestry Electrical Furniture ReͲexports Toiletries Footware Apparels Jewellery Aircrafts Photoinstru Mining Machinery Fishery Agriculture Agroproducts Petroleum Electronics Otherexport

1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6

22 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Exportdecreasedineveryregions theworstperformingmarket Chart5.07a– Exportbycountry PercentoftotalexportinTHBterm 100% = MiddleEast EU Japan NAFTA Restof theworld

᪛ 7.1 (Trilli

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

5.4

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

13.2

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

11.3

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

12.2

11.7

11.1

11.3

18.4

18.1

17.4

18.1

21.0

21.0

12.7 16.6

EastAsia exͲJapan

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

22.5

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


ssofarthisyear,withJapanas

Chart5.07b– ChangeinExport InTHBterm,First6monthsof2013vs 2012

ion) -0.7%

-3.7%

EU

-4.3%

EastAsiaexJapan

-4.4%

Restoftheworld

-4.6%

-5.4%

-7.0%

ASEAN

NAFTA

MiddleEast

Japan 23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Importhasdecreasedinthefirst decreaseinintermediategoods

Chart5.09a– YTDannualchangeinImportin First6monthsof2013vs 2012,percent

-0.3

Totalimport

17

Others

3.1

Consumergoods

-1.1

IntermediateͲFuel

Capitalgoods

IntermediateͲNonfuel

-2.7

-4.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


6monthsof2013,drivenbythe

nBaht Chart5.09b– Sectoralcontributions

7.7

Contributionstototalimportgrowth

-0.3

Totalimport

2.1

Others

0.2

Consumergoods

-0.2

IntermediateͲFuel

Capitalgoods

IntermediateͲNonfuel

-0.6

-1.8

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Touristarrivalsincreased20%int

Chart5.18– InternationalTouristArrivals Millionvisits

CAGR

8.4%

15.9 13.8 10.8

11.7

14.5

14.1

11.5

10.0

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism


thefirst6monthsof2013

Monthlycumulative 25.0

22.3 19.2

Y 11FY 12FY

20.0

2012

15.0

10.0

5.0

2013 0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Chinaaccountedformorethanha arrivalssofarthisyear Chart5.19a InternationalTouristArrivals bycountryofnationality Percentoftotal Restof world

14.3

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.9

Americas

6.2

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.2

Europe

27.3

East Asia

28.7

27.9

52.1

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.1

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis


alfofthetotalincreaseintourist

Chart5.19b 10HighestChangeinInternationalTouristArrivals bycountryofnationality First6monthsof2013vs 2012,Thousands 1,110.4

China 239.5

Russia Malaysia Japan

163.8 108.1

%of totalchange 52% 11% 8% 5%

Indonesia

79.1

4%

Korea

73.8

3%

HongKong

70.2

3%

Taiwan

66.0

3%

Singapore

59.6

3%

Germany

42.0

2%

26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystem’s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

27


Nochangeinpolicyrateaswella marketinJuly Chart3.01a– BOT’spolicyrate

Aug-12

3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Jul-13

Chart3.01c– Savingdepositrate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max

2.50%

Min Aug-12

0.00% Jul-13

Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbra

Source: Bank of Thailand


sotherinterestratesinthe

Chart3.01b– BIBORovernightrate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Jul-13

Aug-12

Chart3.01d– CommercialbankMLR* Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Aug-12

anches

0.00% Jul-13

28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


9%decreaseinfiscalexpenditure

Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

2013 0

J

F

M

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

A

M

J


einthefirst6monthsof2013

2012

J

A

S

O

N

D

29

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystem’s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

30


Businessesturnedpessimisticwh pessimisticinJune Chart1.21a– BusinessSentimentIndex* 100

Better

51.1 50

51.2

54.4

53.9 48.8

49.9

Worse

0 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=50indicatesthatbusinesssentimentremainsstable Index>50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasimproved Index<50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasworsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries


hileIndustriesweremore

Chart1.21bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ThaiIndustriesSentimentIndex** 200

Better

100

97.3

95.5

93.5

92.9

94.3

93.1

Worse

0 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=100indicatesthatindustriessentimentremainsstable Index>100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasimproved Index<100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasworsened

31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Consumersinoverallweremore

Chart1.20aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ConsumerConfidenceIndex Overall

150

O

150

Better

Better

100

100 Worse

Worse

50

50 Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Feb-1

Note:(*)Theindexrangesfrom0to200 100meansconsumerconfidenceisequaltothoseofthepriorm Over100meansconsumerconfidenceisbetterthanthoseofth Under100meansconsumerconfidenceisworsethanthoseoft

Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTC


pessimisticinJune

Onjob

Onfutureincome

150

Better 100 Worse

50 3

Apr-13

month hepriormonth thepriormonth

CC

Jun-13

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

32 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

33


BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor

Chart1.03aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections For2013,Annualpercentagechange 6.00

5.50

FPO BOT

5.00

NESDB 4.50 The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo


2013drasticallyinJuly

omist

Chart1.03bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections For2014,Annualpercentagechange 6.00

5.50

BOT

5.00

4.50

The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Forecast as of, month ending 34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;sgrowthprojectionsare othereconomies

Chart1.04aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections 2013,Annual%change,asofJul27th 2013 7.5

China Philippines India Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia Thailand Pakistan SouthKorea Russia

5.9 5.8 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5

HongKong Australia Taiwan Singapore Brazil US Japan EuroArea -0.6

Source: The Economist

2.3 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8


einthemiddlecomparedto

Chart1.04bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections 2014,Annual%change,asofJul27th 2013 7.4 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.7 2.8 3.0 3.7 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.8 35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

36


Unemploymentratedecreasedsl

Chart2.08â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemploymentrate Percent

2.16

2.07 1.83 1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand


ightlyto0.77%inMay

MonthlyAverage 1.20

1.00

0.80

2012 0.60

2013

0.40

0.68

0.66

11-Avg 12-Avg

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sunemploymentrateis leadingeconomies Chart2.09– Unemploymentrate Latest,percent ThailandͲMay SingaporeͲQ1 SouthKoreaͲJun

0.8 1.9 3.1

MalaysiaͲMay

3.3

HongKongͲJun

3.3

VietnamͲ2011

3.6

ChinaͲQ2

4.1

JapanͲMay

4.1

TaiwanͲJun

4.2

RussiaͲJun AustraliaͲJun IndonesiaͲQ1 BrazilͲJun PakistanͲ2011 PhilippinesͲQ2 USͲJun IndiaͲ2012 EuroAreaͲMay Source: The Economist


lowestcomparingtoother

5.4 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.6 9.9 12.2

38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

39


Overallimprovementinincomed foronlyinBangkok Chart2.01â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;sGINIcoefficient 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB


distributioninThailand,except

NorthEast North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

40

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Slightimprovementofincomedis topandthebottom20% Chart2.02â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintilebyincome Percentoftotalincome

Top20% Bottom20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

5

1


stributionwhencomparedthe

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 41

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


DatafromWorldBanksuggeststh ThailandisnotasbadasinMalay Chart2.03â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Incomeequalityintheworld

Ratiooftheshareofnationalincomegoingtotherichest20% Latest,selectedcountries Honduras Bolivia Comoros SouthAfrica Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles CentralAfricanRepublic Paraguay Panama Zambia CostaRica ElSalvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela,RB Mexico Malaysia DominicanRepublic

2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis


hatincomeequalityproblemin ysiaorChina

%totheshareofthepoorest20%

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey RussianFederation Thailand Iran,IslamicRep. SriLanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia LaoPDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt,ArabRep. Pakistan Afghanistan SlovakRepublic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

42

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

43


ExceptforonlyBangkok,poverty havedeclinedoverthelastdecad Chart2.04a

Chart2.04b

ThailandPovertyLine

Numberofpoorpe

Baht/month/person

Million

3,500

25

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

10

1,000 5 500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legendcolor:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB


headcountandpovertyrate de Chart2.04c

eople

PercentofPoorpeople Percentageoftotalpopulation 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

'03

NorthEast

South

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

44

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ManycountriesinAsiaandespec oftheirpopulationsearninglesst

Chart2.05â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Povertyintheworld,selectedco

Povertyheadcountratioat$2aday(PPP)(%ofpopulation),L Congo,Dem.Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India

6

LaoPDR 60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia 46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

SouthAfrica China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

SriLanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8


ciallyASEAN,stillhavemajority than$2.00aday

ountries

Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

15.4

Egypt,ArabRep. Venezuela,RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil

8.0

Iran,IslamicRep. Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

SlovakRepublic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

RussianFederation

0.1

45

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AnaverageThaiisslightlypoorer morethanthreetimesricherthan

Chart2.06â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNIpercapita,selectedcountrie 2011,Atlasmethod(currentUS$) Norway(1) Qatar(2) Luxembourg(3) Switzerland(4) Denmark(5) Sweden(6) Netherlands(7) US(8) Finland(9) Austria(10) Belgium(11) Canada(12) Japan(13) Germany(14) Singapore(15) France(16) UAE(17) Ireland(18) UK(19) Italy(20) HongKong(21) Iceland(22) Spain(23) Israel(24) Greece(25)

Source: The World Bank

60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030


rthananaverageChinesebut nanaverageIndian

es

()=Worldrank 88,890 80,440 78,130

76,380

CzechRepublic(29) Hungary(36) Brazil(46) Turkey(47) Argentina(49) Mexico(51) Malaysia(53) SouthAfrica(65) Colombia(69) China(78) Thailand(83) Ecuador(85) Ukraine(100) Indonesia(103) Iraq(108) Egypt(109) SriLanka(110) Philippines(113) Bhutan(115) India(122) Vietnam(124) Nigeria(127) LaoPDR(130) Cambodia(139) Bangladesh(142)

18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770 46

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


UsingPurchasingPowerParity,Th to81st,withGNIpercapitaalmos

Chart2.07â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNIpercapita,selectedcountrie 2011,PPP(currentinternational$) Qatar(1) Luxembourg(2) Norway(3) Singapore(4) Switzerland(5) HongKong(6) US(7) UAE(8) Netherlands(9) Sweden(10) Austria(11) Denmark(12) Germany(13) Canada(14) Belgium(15) Australia(16) Finland(17) UK(18) France(19) Japan(20) Ireland(21) Italy(22) Spain(23) Iceland(24) Korea,Rep.(25)

Source: The World Bank

64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370


hailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;srankimprovedslightly stthesameasChina

es

()=Worldrank 86,440

Israel(26) Greece(30) SaudiArabia(31) CzechRepublic(33) Russia(36) Croatia(40) Turkey(44) Malaysia(47) Mexico(48) Mauritius(55) Brazil(63) SouthAfrica(68) China(80) Thailand(81) Bhutan(92) SriLanka(93) Indonesia(102) Philippines(106) India(112) Vietnam(116) LaoPDR(119) Cambodia(126) Bangladesh(132) Nepal(145) Ethiopia(150)

27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110 47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Increasingtrendinhouseholdinc debtserviceyearhasreducedfro Chart2.10aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthlyincomeperhousehold Average,Baht

14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

2009

23,236

2011

Chart2.10bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthlyexpenditureperhouseh Average,Baht

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

17,403

2011


come,expenditureanddebt,but omtherecentpeakin2004

hold

Chart2.10c– Debtperhousehold Average,Baht

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

Chart2.10d– Debtserviceyear* 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

49


BothHeadlineandCoreinflation

Chart3.07a– YͲoͲYchangeinCPI Percent 3.50%

3.00%

2.50%

Headline

2.00%

1.50%

1.00%

Core*

0.50%

0.00% Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis


ncontinuedtodecreaseinJuly

Chart3.07b– YͲoͲYchangeinCPIbyproduct July2013,percent Tobacco&alcohol

7.3

Meat

6.8

Energy

5.5

Veg&fruit

4.4

Eggs&milk

4.4

Transport&Commu

2.0

Housing&furnishing

1.3

Foodawayfromhome

1.3

Rice

1.2

Preparedfoodathome

1.1

Apparelandfootware

0.9

Nonalcoholicbeverage

0.8

Medicalcare

0.8

Seasoning

0.7

Recreation&Education

0.4

50 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sinflationisratheronth economies Chart3.08– ConsumerPriceIndex Annualpercentagechange

Latest

IndiaͲJun VietnamͲJul RussiaͲJun

6

BrazilͲJun

6.7

IndonesiaͲJun

5.9

PakistanͲJun

5.9 4.2

HongKongͲJun PhilippinesͲJun

2.8

ChinaͲJun

2.7 2.4

AustraliaͲQ2

2.0

ThailandͲJul MalaysiaͲJun

1.8

SingaporeͲJun

1.8

USͲJun

1.8 1.6

EuroAreaͲJun

1.0

SouthKoreaͲJun

0.6

TaiwanͲJun JapanͲMay

-0.3

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist


helowsidecomparedtoother

2013* 9.9

9.6

7.3

6.9

.9

6.2 6.5

7

6.9 6.3 4.1 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 1.9 3.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.1

51 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


MildinflationattheProducerlev

Chart3.09a– YͲoͲYchangeinPPI Percent 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis


vel

Chart3.09b– YͲoͲYchangeinPPIbyproduct July2013,percent Fishing Livestocks Metal Petroluemproducts Leather&footware Food NonͲmetallicmineral Transportequip Wood Chemical Energy Forestry Forestry Forestry Mechinery Electricalequip Crop Basicmetals Rubber&plastic Othermanugoods

30.8 20.4 3.8 3.0 2.9 2.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -2.5 -3.8 -7.2 -8.6

52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

53


Bank’sloancontinuedtoincrease decreasedslightlyinMay Chart3.02a– CommercialBanks’Loan THBbillion 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 8,800 8,600 8,400 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

No

Chart3.02b– CommercialBanks’Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95%

92.4%

91.9%

Jun-12

Jul-12

90.8%

91.4%

91.1%

9

90% 85%

Source: Bank of Thailand

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12 N


ewhileliquidityinthesystem

M-o-M +1.1% Y-o-Y +12.2%

ov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

93.9%

93.4%

93.5%

93.3%

it*ratio

92.2%

93.1%

93.1%

Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

Apr-13 May-13

54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


GrossNPLincreasedinamountbu totalloaninthefirstquarterthis

Chart3.03a– TotalFinancialInstitutions’Gros BillionBaht

477

05YE

445

06YE

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

10Y

Chart3.03b– TotalFinancialInstitutions’Gros PercentageofTotalLoans 8.16%

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85%

3.60

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

07YE

08YE

09YE

10Y


utdecreasedaspercentageof year

ssNPLsOutstanding

7

YE

270

256

11YE

12YE

257

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3

ssNPLsOutstanding

0%

YE

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

12YE

2.18%

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;capitalratiodecreasedto

Chart3.04â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capitalratioofallcommercialba %ofriskassets,atyearend

15.8%

16.1%

14.9% 13.4%

13.3%

1 14.0%

13.9%

12.4%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbra

Source: Bank of Thailand


15.9%inMay,stillahealthylevel

nks* MonthEnd 16.5%

16.2%

14.8%

16.0%

2013

15.5%

2012

15.0%

14.5%

2011

anches

2012

14.0%

J F M A M J J A S O N D

56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandisoneofthemanycoun rates Chart3.05– Realinterestrates Percent,asofJuly27th 2013

3MriskͲfreeinterestrates 11.1

India 9.0

Pakistan

8.5

Brazil

7.4

Russia

7.0

Vietnam

6.1

Indonesia 4.7

China 3.1

Malaysia Australia

2.7

SouthKorea

2.7 2.3

Thailand Philippines

1.1

Taiwan

0.9

Singapore

0.5

HongKong

0.4

US

0.3

EuroArea

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist


trieswithnegativerealinterest

=

Expected2013inflation*

Realinterestrates

9.6

1.5

6.3

2.7

6.5

2.0

6.2

1.2

6.9

0.1

6.9

-0.8

2.7

2.0

1.9

1.2

2.4

0.3

2.0

0.7

2.5

-0.2

3.3

-2.2

1.3

-0.4 3.8 4.1

0.1

-3.3 -3.7

1.5

-1.2

1.5

-1.3 0.1

57

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


SETdecreasedanother2%inJuly seemedtostop Chart3.06aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; MonthlyperformanceofSETindex Percentchangefrompriormonth,atmonthend

4.6% 1.3%

2.4%

-2.0%

-2.2% -7.1%

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Chart3.06bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulativenetforeignfundflow SET&MAI,BillionBaht,Monthend 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0

D-12 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13

Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis

E


ybuttheforeignbigsellout Chart3.06câ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ChangesinceDec31st2012 Percent,asofJuly24th 2013 Japan(Nikkei225)

41.7%

Pakistan(KSE)

40.6%

US(DJIA)

18.6%

US(NAScomp)

18.5%

US(S&P500)

18.2% 12.3%

UK(FTSE100) Germany(DAX)

10.1%

Indonesia(JSX)

9.3%

France(CAC40)

8.8%

Thailand(SET)

7.9%

Australia(AllOrd.)

7.7%

Malaysia(KLSE)

7.2%

Taiwan(TWI)

6.5%

EuroArea(FTSEEuro100)

5.4%

Singapore(STI)

3.4%

India(BSE)

3.4%

HK(HangSeng)

-3.0%

SKorea(KOSPI)

-4.3%

China(SSEB,$terms)

-4.4%

China(SSEA)-10.4%

58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

59


Hugegovernmentbudgetdeficitr slightlybetterthanin2009

Chart4.1â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentbudgetandcashbala Percent

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp

1.4% 0.3% 0.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6%

-1.7 -2.0%

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY


relativetoGDPin2012,only

anceaspercentageofnominalGDP

plus)

-0.3% -0.7%

-1.1%-1.1%

-1.3%

% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY 60

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thegovernmentmanagedtoach first6monthsof2013,bigimprov Chart4.2â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentbudgetbalance BillionBaht

1

Revenue 1,013

1,109

16

0

Budget balance -996

-1,109

1,241

-36

-1,277

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

-1,629

-1,598

1,484

110 -364

-1,280

Expenditure

-1,849

-1

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


ievebudgetsurplusduringthe vementfromlastyear

Monthlycumulative Budgetbalance 100.0 ,751

1,902

2,079 0.0

2013

-100.0

-75

-28 -410 -200.0

2012

-300.0

1,825

-1,930 -400.0 -2,489

-500.0

0FY 11FY 12FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

61 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mon whileCashbalanceis+51BillionB Chart4.3â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentcashbalance BillionBaht

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110

16

24

0

88

8

-36 -45

-1 -144 -174

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY


nthsof2013is+35BillionBaht Baht

plus)

35

51

-28 -75

00 -96

-137

-266

-364 -401

-410 -466

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

'13/6mo

62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandbudgetdeficitin2013is GDP

Chart4.4â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GovernmentBudgetbalanceaspe 2013*,percent HongKong Singapore SouthKorea Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan China Indonesia Brazil Thailand EuroArea Malaysia

-

US

-4. -5.0

Vietnam

-5.1

India Japan Pakistan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-8.4 -8.8


expectedtobearound3%of

ercentageofGDP 2.0 0.7 0.4 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.2

-4.2

5

63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AslightincreaseinPublicdebtso

Chart4.5aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; CompositionofPublicdebt THBTrillion 6.0

5.0

4.0

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

3.0 BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt 2.0

1.0 DirectGovernmentdebt 0.0 2009 10%

2010

2011

2012

8%

8%

7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

May-13 6%

Ext as


ofarin2013

Chart4.5bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; CompositionofPublicdebt AspercentageofnominalGDP 50% 45% 40%

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

35% 30% 25%

BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt

20% 15% 10%

DirectGovernmentdebt

5% 0%

2009

ternaldebt percentoftotal

2010

2011

2012

May-13

64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’spublicdebtisnothigh standard Chart4.6– Publicdebtintheworld PercentageofGDP,2012orlatest 1Japan 2Zimbabwe 3Greece 6Lebanon 8Italy 9Portugal 10Iceland 12Ireland 14Singapore 15Belgium 18France 19UnitedKingdom 20Egypt 21Canada 22Spain 25Hungary 27Germany 28SriLanka 31Malta 33Israel 35UnitedStates 37Morocco 39Netherlands 41Croatia 43Bhutan

219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat


comparedtointernational

9

ta

Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule ofthumb <60%of GDP 52Bahrain 53Malaysia 54Brazil 58Switzerland 60India 61Philippines 64Venezuela 66Vietnam 67Laos 74Denmark 76Thailand 79CzechRepublic 81SouthAfrica 84NewZealand 85Argentina 87Turkey 92Taiwan 95China 100Mexico 106Korea,South 109Bangladesh 113HongKong 119Australia 121Indonesia 139Russia

56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11

65

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin1Q13grew5.3%from Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductionrecover • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • Businessesturnedpessimistic;Con • BOTcutitsgrowthprojectionfor2 projectionisnowbetween4.2Ͳ5.3%

• Unemploymentratedecreasedslig countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLdecreasedaspercenttototall • Budgetbalanceforthefirst6mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBdepreciate0.1%in




ayearago,inlinewithconsensusprojectionsfortheyear hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybyExport anufacturingisstillthemainforcebehindthegrowth edfromlastmonthbutstilllowerthanayearago ntstartedtoshowsignsofslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened sumermorepessimistic 013drasticallyfrom5.1%to4.2%inJuly;consensus %for2013and4.7Ͳ5.0%for2014

ghtlyto0.77%inMay,stillaverylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininJulyto2%and0.85%respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.9%inMay.Totalsystemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oanin1Q13. thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot nJuly.

66


PositiveBalanceofPaymentsint largelytocapitalinflow

Chart5.01â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BalanceofPaymentdecompositio BillionUSD

31.3 24.7

24.1

5.3 1.2 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

0.2 12FY

13/6mo


hefirst6monthsof2013due TradeBalance(F.O.B) 32.6

on

29.8

17.3

17.0 8.3 -0.8

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/6mo

Netserviceincome&transfer -5.6

+

-15.2

08FY

-10.7

-3.0

-11.1 -19.7

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/6mo

NetCapitalMovement+errorsandomissions 22.5

21.3 2.2

2.5

4.0

12FY

13/6mo

-4.7 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

67

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


StrongAsianexportenginesrefle surplus Chart5.02– CurrentAccountbalance As%of2013GDP* SingaporeͲQ1

1

TaiwanͲQ1 6.5%

VietnamͲ2011

5.7%

MalaysiaͲQ1 SouthKoreaͲMay

3.1%

PhilippinesͲMar

3.1%

RussiaͲQ2

2.3%

ChinaͲQ1

1.9%

HongKongͲQ1

1.8%

EuroAreaͲMay

1.6%

JapanͲMay

0.9%

ThailandͲQ1

0.8%

PakistanͲQ2

-1.2%

IndonesiaͲQ1

-2.6%

USͲQ1

-2.8%

BrazilͲJun

-3.2%

AustraliaͲQ1

-3.3%

IndiaͲQ1 Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-4.5%


ectinginhugecurrentaccount

Last12months,USDBillion 19.0%

48.2

11.3%

49.9 0.2 15.9 57.8 10.2 47.9 217.2 2.2 235.8 55.9 2.6 -2.3 -26.2 -425.7 -72.5 -51.1 -87.8

68 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Worsenedtradebalancesofarin thanimport Chart5.03â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Tradebalance*decomposition BillionBaht

ŕľ&#x17E;

CumulativeExport 8,000 7,000

2012

Cumulative 8,000 7,000

6,000

6,000

5,000

5,000

4,000

4,000

3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

2013

Y-o-Y -3.7%

0

1,000

201

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

J F M A

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


2013asexportdroppedmore

=

Import

3

CumulativeTradebalance 0

-100

2012

2012

-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600

Y-o-Y -0.3%

M J J A S O N D

stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion

-700 -800

J F M A M J J A S O N D

69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Externaldebtlevelincreasedinb terms Chart5.10a– ExternalDebtLevel BillionUSD 160 120 80 40 0

04YE

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

Chart5.10b– ExternalDebtas%ofGDP

40.9%

04YE

37.0%

38.5%

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

08YE


bothabsoluteandrelativetoGDP

E

09YE

%

28.8%

E

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.8%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/1Q

38.8%

40.0%

12YE

13/1Q

70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


MorepublicdebtandmorelongͲ compositionin2013 Chart5.11a– Externaldebtbreakdown Privatevs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

8%

92%

09YE

13%

87%

10YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

15%

20%

23%

85%

80%

77%

11YE

12YE

13/1Q


termdebtinexternaldebt

Chart5.11b– Externaldebtbreakdown LongͲTermvs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term

44%

56%

09YE

50%

50%

10YE

45%

46%

44%

55%

54%

56%

11YE

12YE

13/1Q

71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capabilitytorepayexternaldebt concernasdebtserviceratioislo Chart5.12aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreserves As%ofSTexternaldebt

418% 370% 340%

330%

299%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

286%

13/1Q

Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


deterioratedbutnotyeta owandreservesathealthylevel Chart5.12bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debtserviceratio* Percent

8.2% 7.6%

4.8%

4.7%

4.2% 3.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/1Q

72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


NetInternationalreservesdecrea stillconsideredexcessive Chart5.13aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreserveslevel* Attheendofperiod,BillionUSD

54.4

55.9

2004

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

Chart5.13bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreservesasnumbe

9.1 6.9

2004

5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


asedslightlysofarthisyearbut

191.7

206.4

205.8

194.5

2011

2012

Jun-13

154.1

0

8

2009

2010

erofmonthsofimport** 13.8

12.6 10.8

8

2009

the last 12 months

2010

2011

10.0

2012

9.1

Jun-13

73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


THBdepreciatedslightlyinJuly

Chart5.17a– NominalEffectiveExchangeRate 2007=100

114.0

Bahtappreciates

112.0

110.0

108.0

106.0

MͲoͲM

Ͳ0.1%

Bahtdepreciates Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

104.0

102.0

100.0

YͲoͲY

98.0

5.5%

96.0 94.0 Jul-13

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


e

0

Chart5.17b– YͲoͲYchangeinFXrate* Percentagechangeinavg.sellingrateasofJuly31st 2013 EURͲ41.8699

7.2

MXNͲ2.4671

3.2

0

CNYͲ5.1854

2.9

0

KRWͲ0.0282

0

VNDͲ0.0015

0

0

0

0

1.1 0.0

TWDͲ1.051

-0.5

USDͲ31.4894

-0.7

SGDͲ24.883

-2.8

GBPͲ48.0764

-3.8

MYRͲ9.8022

-3.9

PHPͲ0.7307

-4.6

INRͲ0.5538

-8.2

IDRͲ3.2298

-11.8

AUDͲ28.5825 JPYͲ32.2952

-14.7 -20.8

Bahtappreciates

Bahtdepreciates 74

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130731 eng emag split