Tan•gazine May-June 2013 Vol 3 Issue 03

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May-June 2013 Volume 03 Issue 03

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CONTENTS May-June 2013 Volume 03 Issue 03 FEATURED CONTENT pg 4-7

Real Estate Vs. The Stock Market

pg 8

Flashback to 1969...Is Housing Really More Unaffordable Today?

pg 10

Signs of Spring and a Soft Landing in Canadian Real Estate

FEATURED PROPERTY LISTINGS pg 12 Indulge On Space! - $ IDQWDVWLF SUHVWLJLRXV &UHGLW 5LGJH SURSHUW\ LQ FUW DUHD EDFNLQJ RQWR RSHQ VSDFH 8SJUG VXFK DV ZLGH SODQN KUGZG WKURXJKRXW PDLQ IORRU RDN VWDLUV Z LURQ EDOXVWHUV IXOO\ ͤQLVKHG EDVHPHQW ODQGLQJV

pg 12 Gorgeous and New! - Open concept Credit Valley home. Approx. 3yrs old! 9ft ceilings, upgrd kit & breakfast area w/WO to IHQFHG \DUG EGUP EXLOGHU ͤQ 5HF 5P 'HQ )XOO %DWK LQ EVPW

pg 12 Castlemore Area! - Well maintained home located in Castlemore Area feat: hdwd flrs throughout, 8ft patio door W.O to EDFN\DUG IURP EUHDNIDVW DUHD )XQF OD\RXW EGUP HDFK Z GLUHFW DFFHVV WR ZDVKURRP

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pg 16-19

Market Watch Back To Back

pg 20

Let’s Put Real Estate Overvaluation In Perspective

pg 22

There’s Not Going To Be A Housing Crash

pg 23

Real Estate Meltdown Protection Plan

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Tan.gazine NEWS

Real Estate vs. the Stock Market 5RPDQD .LQJ 0RQH\6HQVH March 28, 2013

Despite continuing predictions of a real estate crash in Canada, I still maintain that real estate is a good investment. One of the greatest benefits to real estate investing is that it’s probably one of the more accessible ways to invest using borrowed money. Now, before you launch into the dangers of debt I want to point out that debt, in itself, is not inherently bad. While consumer debt—loans to pay for a car, a vacation, most home renovations, or other consumables—is a blight on a person’s potential net worth, it’s not in the same category as asset-backed debt. Asset-backed debt—loans secured by a potentially appreciating asset, such as real property, an RRSP, or a stock portfolio—can be a great way to use leverage to increase a person’s net worth. The caveats for leveraged investing include: <RX PXVW HDUQ PRUH WKDQ \RX·UH FKDUJHG IRU borrowing to make the investment; The decision to use leverage to invest must be part of an overall investment strategy (and not an ad hoc decision based on “a good tip”); Any interest rate increase on the borrowed money cannot significantly impact a person’s ability to pay off the debt, or they may be forced to liquidate the asset at unfavourable rate/prices. I’m not the only one who believes this to be the case. Financial educator, author and industry consultant, Talbot Stevens, believes real estate can be a wise investment under the right circumstances. In an interview with Stevens in late 2011, he stated: “Real estate investing is like a mini-business that doesn’t have a lot of complexity to it. For the average person, real estate can be a good strategy.” His comments were in relation to the smart use of leveraged investing to increase your overall net worth. By

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strategically using leverage to invest in appreciating assets a person could essentially buy more net worth. At this point, however, it’s worth mentioning that while borrowing to buy an asset can magnify your gains, it can also dramatically accentuate your losses. To understand how this works consider what happens if you put 10% down on a property worth $300,000. Your original investment is $30,000. If the house goes up in value by $60,000 and you sell, you’ll make a $30,000 profit (before interest, taxes and expenses). Even though the house went up in value by only 20%, your return on investment is 100%—that’s how leveraging works. But what if the same $300,000 house drops in value by $60,000, and you sell. You won’t get any of your initial $30,000 deposit back and, worse, you’ll now owe $30,000 to the bank to pay off what you’re short on in the mortgage. While the investment only declined by 20%, you ended up in the red by 100%. Because of leverage you lost more than you initially invested. All this is great to know, but the real question is what should a homebuyer or real estate investor do now, when there are predictions of a housing crash, at worst, or stagnant appreciation, at best. One way investors can avoid these problems is to focus on cash-flow positive properties. That means the income you get from renting out the property covers all your expenses, including the mortgage, taxes, insurance, maintenance, repairs and a contingency fund. That way your property will be making money for you whether house prices go up or down—so hopefully, you’ll never be forced to sell in a down market. The homebuyer, on the other hand, is in a different position. Rather than buy based on metrics, homebuyers—people who a house solely as a place to

Tan.gazine NEWS There’s been a lot of debate as to whether I should recommend real estate as an investment, given predictions of a 20% drop in housing prices. To prove that real estate can still be a smart investment decision I’ve examined potential returns of both…and the results may surprise you.

live and not as an investment—buy based on emotions. These buyers ignore an up-and-coming neighbourhood to get into an established (and expensive) area; these buyers want the stainless steel kitchen appliances and granite counter-top and, often, pay little attention to the age of the furnace and whether you can undercut the asking price because of all the work that needs to be done to the property. In my opinion these buyers need to wait it out. To get a better idea of how the market impacts home prices and your net worth, I’ve put together a few simple scenarios.

1) Buy now and there is no drop in housing prices You buy a home at $350,000 with a 10% down payment. That means your initial investment is $35,000 to own an asset currently valued at $350,000. If prices were to remain stable and housing appreciation returns to historic levels—2% per year—then your net equity after 10 years would be as follows (not including maintenance and utility costs):

1) Buy now and there is no drop in housing prices; 2) Buy now and face a 20% drop in housing prices; 3) Buy now and face a 10% drop in housing prices 4) Rent and invest the down payment in a balanced portfolio. To clarify the assumptions made are as follows: Housing price is $350,000–the approximate national average home price; With 10% down ($35,000) the mortgage is $321,300 and the monthly payments are $1,637 based on a 10-year fixed at 3.69%; Annualized appreciation of 2% for the next decade (after inflation, or 3.5% before inflation, as predicted by TD Report); The time-value of money is not factored in. That’s because regardless of whether you hold real estate or a stock portfolio, your equity will be impacted equally by rising inflation. Now on to the scenarios:

The equity in your home would amount to just over $200,000 after 10 years (assuming no pre-payments and not accounting for maintenance and utility costs). 2) Buy now and face a 20% drop in housing prices But what if you were to buy the same $350,000 home, with 10% down and prices dropped 20%? Your initial investment would be $35,000 and the value of the asset at time of purchase would be $350,000. After the price drop your home would only be worth $280,000. If you were to sell within that first year, you would lose your initial investment

penghocktan.com | 5

Tan.gazine NEWS of $35,000 and would owe an additional $35,000. Keep in mind, however, that you only realize a loss if you sell. If, however, you kept the property for 10 years you would end up with the following (not including maintenance and utility costs):

At the end of 10 years your asset would be worth just under $376,455 and the equity in the home would be just over $150,050. No question: the price drop significantly impacted the appreciation of the asset, but after 10 years of forced savings (i.e.: paying off a mortgage) you would just over $150,000 in equity in the home. 4): Rent and invest the down payment in a balanced portfolio

The balance on the mortgage would remain the same, assuming no prepayments, with a balance of $226,398 owing at the end of year 10. However, the initial drop in the value of the house would significantly impede the asset’s appreciation over the 10 years, leaving you in a $9,000 deficit from when you first bought your home. (After 10 years, and 2% appreciation each year after the initial 20% loss in value, the home would be worth just over $341,000, or $9,000 less than when you first bought the home.) Over the 10 years, however, you would have built up about $115,000 in equity (the reduced home value after 10 years minus the outstanding mortgage balance). 3) Buy now and face a 10% drop in housing prices Same scenario as above, however, the price drop is only 10%.

A few commentators on prior blog posts suggested that a better investment strategy would be to take the down payment a person may use to purchase a home and invest it in the markets. The problem is that past performance is never indicative of future performance, still, I needed to use a benchmark and, due to several economists and analysts predicting soft returns in the stock market over the next decade, I opted to use the 10-year annualized returns from 2001 to 2011. (For more information on these returns please read The Canadian Couch Potato’s 10-Year Report Card) Based on the 10-year annualized returns of the following balanced portfolios, this is what your $35,000 investment would look like in 10 years (not including taxes, dividend disbursements, additional contributions, or trading costs): Based on these returns, the maximum appreciation your portfolio could manage is just over $62,000 (not including taxes, dividend disbursements, additional contributions, or trading costs). But the ability to invest this money assumes that the $1,637 mortgage payment you would’ve been making had you purchased a home is a sufficient enough sum to rent an apartment. For those living in Toronto or Vancouver—or in Regina, Thunder Bay and Calgary, where vacancy rates are an astonishingly low 1% to 1.3%—the possibility of finding a two-bedroom apartment for $1,600 in the downtown core may seem ridiculous. Also, the above calculations, and the rent you start paying the year you make your investments, do not take into consideration the impact of rental increases. Still, in many Canadian cities you can find a two-bedroom rental closer to the national rental average of $954. If, then, you used the extra $683 per month to

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Tan.gazine NEWS increase your initial portfolio investment of $35,000 you would see much higher portfolio appreciation. To get a better idea of how renting and investing compares with the appreciation from a real estate purchase I’ve calculated the 10-year value of your portfolio, including the additional monthly contributions minus rental increases. I’ve only used the two Global Couch Potato returns, as they were closer to the median between the lowest and highest annualized rate of returns for balanced equity portfolios over the last 10 years:

While, we can’t actually predict how the housing market or stock markets will perform over the next 10 years, we can make educated guesses. I simply wanted to show that despite loud headlines of potential bubbles bursting in the real estate market, housing is a good investment. I am not advocating that you should put all your eggs in one basket. If you own rental properties you should also diversify and invest in stocks and bonds (as well a REITs, mortgage investment products, as well as other investment products). I also believe that too many homebuyers read these reports and assume that any investment in a house is a good investment. That’s not always the case. In the end, a decision to invest in any product, whether real estate or in the markets, needs to be an educated decision based on a long-term financial strategy. It cannot be an emotional decision based on fear and speculation.

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The long and short of it is this: real estate, as an investment, really only makes sense when the market is appreciating. Any loss in home value can really put a dent in your overall equity. If, then, you believe that the housing market will drop 20% in value, it would probably be best for you to continue renting and to invest your money in the markets. Of course, to maximize your savings you would need to find a rental that is less than what you would’ve paid in mortgage payments, and then invest the savings into your portfolio. Do this and you could see a potential nest egg between $124,000 and $132,000 at the end of 10 years. If, however, you don’t believe the housing market will take a 20% dive and like me, you believe there will only be a 10% correction in housing prices, if that, then investing in real estate isn’t such a crazy idea. Even if the real estate market did drop by 10%, you would have approximately $150,000 in equity in your home—about $20,000 more than if you had invested in the markets. If the housing market doesn’t correct, you would have almost $70,000 more than if you’d invested in a balanced portfolio for the same time period.

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(NOTE: The above calculations are based on 2.7% national average rental rate increase)

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Tan.gazine NEWS

Flashback to 1969...

Is housing really more unaffordable today? Centum Canada

April 25, 2013

In 1969 the average household income was hovering at around $8000.00 per year. Most were single income and if you made $10,000.00 a year, you were considered to be well paid. A new car would cost you anywhere from $600.00 to as much as $25,000.00 depending on the make and model. A quart of milk was about 10 cents, a loaf of bread the same. If you wanted to buy a single family home in Toronto, you would be paying anywhere from $25,000.00 to as much as $100,000.00 (if you wanted a mansion). Today that seems like a steal of a deal, but let's take a look at some of the differences between then and now... In 2001 the average size of a home was about 1700 square feet, 58% had 3 or more bedrooms, 57% have one and a half or more bathrooms. In 2001, 76 percent of homes had a washing machine, 73 percent had a dryer, 56 percent had a dishwasher, and 44 percent had a kitchen sink garbage disposal; 58 percent of homes had a garage, and 80 percent had an outdoor deck or patio. In 2001, 82 percent of homes had some form of air-conditioning and 55 percent had central air Compare that to 1969... the average size of the home was LESS than 1200 square feet. Fewer than half of homes had three or more bedrooms and only 30 percent had 1.5 or more bathrooms, in fact not even all homes built in 1969 had central heat (only 38%) or air conditioning (11%). Can you imagine not having plumbing? Only 93% of new homes came complete with Sinks, toilets and bathtubs!

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In 1969 a starter home was just that, a starter home there were very few of the amenities that we enjoy today. Granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, etc. were not even options that were available. The cost to build a home... around $21.00 per square foot compared to over $150.00 today. We also need to take a look at what it took to qualify for a mortgage. In 1969 you need a minimum of 25% down payment, and you could not have a GDS higher than 30% and TDS of 40%. That meant that to buy a basic small starter home you needed to come up with $6250.00 - on an income of only $8000.00 before tax, it took families years to save to buy the home. With interest rates at 12.5% and the need to save $6250.00 it would appear that homeownership was unattainable, however rates of homeownership in Canada have remained fairly steady since 1969, and in fact have been increasing for the younger generations. Home ownership is expensive, and as the cost of housing has gone up it has been more challenging. No longer is it easy for a single income family to buy a home, but it can still be done. There are options for mortgage financing that can assist you in achieving your dream, the best person for you to speak to is a licensed mortgage professional.

Tan.gazine NEWS

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Tan.gazine NEWS

Signs of Spring and a Soft Landing In Canadian Real Estate 7DUD 3HUNLQV 7KH *OREH DQG 0DLO May 15, 2013

The housing market is doing precisely what policy makers in Ottawa set out to achieve, cooling down without flaming out. The number of homes that changed hands over the Multiple Listing Service in April was just 3 per cent lower than a year ago on an annual basis, compared with a 15-per-cent drop in March. April’s relatively small decline comes on the heels of average declines that topped 13 per cent during the previous five months, noted Royal Bank of Canada economist Robert Hogue. Economists say the latest data imply that the market is coasting toward the soft landing that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have been seeking. They expect sales this spring to edge upward, but not to return to the blistering pace of early last year. The signs of a thaw in the Canadian housing market are especially encouraging heading into the all-important spring home-buying season, said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Sonya Gulati. But she added that she does not expect sales to rebound significantly in coming months. “There simply is no economic impetus for a full-fledged comeback in the cards,” she wrote in a research note. “In turn, the 2013 spring home-buying season should be mediocre at best.” That will be welcome news to policy makers, because a revival of the housing market at this stage could once again raise fears of a bubble, something that Mr. Flaherty has suggested has not occurred so far. In a bid to keep it that way, he coaxed banks into backing off from some ultralow posted five-year mortgage rates in March. “Generationally low borrowing costs will continue to provide underlying support to domestic housing activity,” Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren wrote in a research note. “At the 10 | penghocktan.com

same time, however, high home prices and tighter mortgage rules are squeezing affordability, especially for first-time homebuyers.” Over all, Ms. Warren expects Canadians to remain more cautious about borrowing and spending. Thirty-year-old Daniel Collins-Forrester had been looking at homes for the past year and bought his first house, a bungalow in Oshawa, Ont., last month. Over the course of the time he was looking, he noticed more buyers actively on the hunt for homes. “There was more competition than I’d thought,” he said. Sales fell in April on a year-over-year basis in about 60 per cent of the local markets that the Canadian Real Estate Association tracks; that was still an improvement from March, when sales declined in more than 90 per cent of local markets. Home prices as measured by the MLS Home Price Index were up 2.2 per cent from a year earlier, the smallest gain in more than two years. But they are still rising faster than inflation, and prices are at all-time highs, pointed out Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter. “Despite the very loud gnashing of teeth and excessive wringing of hands for well over a year on the topic, Canadian home prices remain incredibly calm, cool, and collected,” he said. There are regional variations. Calgary saw sales rise 10.4 per cent and its average selling price rise 3.6 per cent from a year ago, to $429,717 from $414,932. In Toronto, where sales fell 5.2 per cent, the average selling price rose 1.7 per cent to $526,335 from $517,556. Vancouver, which led sales declines last year, saw sales fall 6 per cent, while the average selling price rose by 0.6 per cent from a year ago to $739,587. The number of newly listed homes in April came in 0.9-per-cent below March, and the decline in

Tan.gazine NEWS

new listings has been a key factor that’s kept home prices from full-scale retreat despite the double-digit correction in sales, said Mr. Hogue, the RBC economist. “The interesting – and often overlooked – development in the past year or so has been the restraint on the supply side of the market,â€? he wrote in a note. “The cooling of the market, in fact, took place on both sides of the equation – buyers and sellers.â€? And the wider economic situation is unlikely to upset that balance, Bank of Montreal economist Sal *XDWLHUL VDLG ´8QOLNH WKH HDUO\ V H[SHULHQFH ZLWK GRXEOH GLJLW XQHPSOR\PHQW DQG PRUWJDJH UDWHV RU WKH PRUH UHFHQW 8 6 VXESULPH FUHGLW GHEDFOH &DQDGLDQ KRPH RZQHUV DUH XQGHU QR SUHVVXUH WR VHOO DPLG UHFRUG ORZ interest rates and relatively low joblessness.â€?

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Tan.gazine NEWS

Soft Landing

Still Likely, Conference Told Recently Genworth Canada hosted a half-day seminar for Realtors and mortgage industry professionals. The seminar was held in Mississauga and broadcast live across Canada via webcast. Craig Alexander, chief economist at TD Group, delivered the keynote speech about the current state of Canada’s economy and real estate market. His presentation was followed by a review of Genworth Canada’s annual Homeownership Study – a survey that looks at homebuyer trends and behaviour and financial fitness levels of Canadians. The results of the survey were discussed in a panel discussion featuring Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, Stuart Levings, COO of Genworth Canada, Henrietta Ross, CEO of Canadian Association of Credit Couselling Services and David McDonald of Environics Research Group. Following this discussion, Paul Belanger, co-chair of the Financial Services Regulatory Group at Blakes LLP and Mark Tamburro of Get A Better Mortgage Inc., deliberated over a number of probing regulatory issues. The following provides a summary of key take-aways from the presentations and panel discussions: &DQDGD KDV RXW SHUIRUPHG WKH 8 6 GXULQJ WKH economic recovery. The Canadian economy is expected to deliver moderate economic growth in 2013 and 2014. A soft landing is expected in Canadian real estate. Home sales have fallen in response to the tightening of mortgage insurance rules and slower economic growth, but there has not been a price correction (outside of Vancouver). This reflects the fact that listings have declined in tandem with sales. The result

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REM Online

May 15, 2013

is balanced market conditions in most Canadian cities. The effects of the recent tightening of mortgage insurance rules will abate with time. There is no catalyst for a major correction in real estate, as Canada’s labour market will remain healthy and interest rates will remain low. Consumers have reduced their willingness to take on additional debt. This will constrain household spending, but it is a healthy outcome and spending will likely continue to advance at roughly the pace of income growth. TD Bank does not expect interest rates to rise until late 2014 to early 2015. The exception would be if the housing market rebounds and it leads to acceleration in debt growth, in which case the Bank of Canada could be forced to raise interest rates sooner or the government could tighten mortgage lending rules further. An option that does not get attention, but could be prudent, is a change in the qualifying interest rate. People are putting more money down, but people are also buying smaller homes. Both are indications that people are opting for more affordable mortgages. There is still a need for increased financial literacy among Canadians (27 per cent do not even know what their credit rating is). The Canadian government was concerned with a rising debt-to-income ratio and changes to mortgage regulations in the past few years were a quick way to address the issue. This is likely not the end of changes in the mortgage industry; much depends on how changes made to date continue to affect the industry.

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Tan.gazine NEWS Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report May 2013 Mid-Month Resale Market Figures May 16, 2013 -- Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,476 transactions through the TorontoMLS system during the first 14 days of May. This result represented a decline of 9.7 per cent compared to the same period in 2012. Sales declines were larger for the City of Toronto, at 11.4 per cent, versus the surrounding regions where sales were down by 8.6 per cent year-over-year. “Despite fewer sales this year compared to last, competition between buyers in most segments of the market remained strong enough to promote annual rates of price growth above the rate of inflation. A household earning the average income in the GTA can comfortably afford the mortgage payments associated with the purchase of an average priced home,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Ann Hannah. The average selling price during the first two weeks of May was $543,838 – up by 5.4 per cent in comparison to the same time frame last year. Price growth was strongest for low-rise home types, but positive price growth for condo apartments in the City of Toronto was also reported. “Continuing the prevailing trend over the last year, the low-rise segment of the market drove overall price growth during the first half of May, as months of inventory remained below historic norms for key home types,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

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Tan.gazine NEWS Market Conditions Promote Price Growth in April In April, the median price was $526,335 from the $515,888 recorded during April of 2012 Toronto, May 03, 2013

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 9,811 sales through the TorontoMLS system in April 2013, representing a dip of two per cent in comparison to 10,021 transactions in April 2012. Both new listings during the month and active listings at the end of April were up on a year-over-year basis. “Despite the headwinds we have experienced in the housing market this year, April sales came in quite strong in comparison to last year. As we move through the spring and into the second half of 2013, the demand for home ownership should continue to firm-up relative to last year,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Ann Hannah. “It has been almost a year since the federal government enacted stricter mortgage lending guidelines. It is realistic to surmise that some households, who originally put their decision to

purchase on hold, are once again looking to buy,” continued Ms. Hannah. The average selling price for April 2013 transactions was $526,335 – up by two per cent in comparison to April 2012. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark Price was up by 2.9 per cent. “The condominium apartment segment in the City of Toronto was a key driver of price growth in April, with both the average selling price and the MLS HPI apartment index up on a year-over-year basis. The improved condo sales picture, with Toronto sales down by only one per cent compared to last year, suggests that interest in condo ownership may be improving," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

penghocktan.com | 17

Tan.gazine NEWS Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report April 2013 Mid-Month Resale Market Figures May 16, 2013 -- Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,476 transactions through the TorontoMLS system during the first 14 days of May. This result represented a decline of 9.7 per cent compared to the same period in 2012. Sales declines were larger for the City of Toronto, at 11.4 per cent, versus the surrounding regions where sales were down by 8.6 per cent year-over-year. “Despite fewer sales this year compared to last, competition between buyers in most segments of the market remained strong enough to promote annual rates of price growth above the rate of inflation. A household earning the average income in the GTA can comfortably afford the mortgage payments associated with the purchase of an average priced home,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Ann Hannah. The average selling price during the first two weeks of May was $543,838 – up by 5.4 per cent in comparison to the same time frame last year. Price growth was strongest for low-rise home types, but positive price growth for condo apartments in the City of Toronto was also reported. “Continuing the prevailing trend over the last year, the low-rise segment of the market drove overall price growth during the first half of May, as months of inventory remained Resale Market Figures belowMay historic 2013 norms forMonthly key home types,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report

TBA SHORTLY! Kindly Check Back On June 08, 2013

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Tan.gazine NEWS Price Growth Continues in February In February, the median price was $510,580 from the $500,249 recorded during February of 2012 Toronto, March 05, 2012

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® Toronto’s additional upfront land transfer tax reported 5,759 sales through the TorontoMLS arguably played a role in the slower pace of luxury system in February 2013 – a decline of 15 per cent detached home sales,” added Ms. Hannah. in comparison to February 2012. It should be noted The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark that 2012 was a leap year with one extra day in price covering all major home types eliminates February. A 28 day year-over-year sales comparison fluctuations in price growth due to changes in sales resulted in a lesser decline of 10.5 per cent. mix. The Composite Benchmark price was up by The average selling price for February 2013 more than three per cent on a year-over-year basis in was $510,580 – up two per cent in comparison February. to February 2012. “We will undoubtedly experience some “The share of sales and dollar volume volatility in price growth for some market segments accounted for by luxury detached homes in the City in 2013. However, months of inventory in the of Toronto was lower this February compared to low-rise market segment will remain low, resulting in last. This contributed to a more modest pace of average price growth above three per cent for the overall average price growth for the GTA as a TREB market area this year. whole,” said Toronto RealJune Estate Board (TREB) current average price forecast is 2013 Mid-MonthOur Resale Market Figures President Ann Hannah. $515,000 for all home types combined in 2013,” said “Stricter mortgage lending guidelines that Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market precluded government backed mortgages on homes Analysis. sold for over one million dollars and the City of

Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report

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Tan.gazine NEWS

Let’s Put Real Estate

Overvaluation In Perspective More than a few media headlines are focusing on Canada’s overvalued real estate. According to Fitch, an American-based ratings agency, housing prices in Canada are 20% overvalued in real terms. The fine print, however, is that this overvaluation only applies to a couple of major urban centres, such as Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. In their new financial model report, Fitch analysts noted that housing prices in Canada have continued to climb since 1996 and, while small corrections have occurred, these prices have risen without the support of underlying financial fundamentals. For that reason, the ratings agency suggests that the overvaluation of real estate in certain provinces is in the double digits. For instance: ‡ 2QWDULR LV RYHUYDOXHG E\ ‡ $OEHUWD E\ ‡ %ULWLVK &ROXPELD E\ DQG ‡ 4XHEHF E\ Still, Fitch analysts don’t believe the overpriced real estate markets will result in price declines that equal or exceed the overvaluation rates. “Actual nominal [price] declines could range from the low single digits for Alberta, up to more than

5RPDQD .LQJ 0RQH\6HQVH May 03, 2013

IRU % & DQG 4XHEHF ¾ The key: these declines will occur over the next several years. More importantly, the price decrease will be closer to 10% of home prices not 20%, explain Fitch analysts. Of course, certain markets have already felt the pinch. In Alberta, low crude oil prices in 2008 forced a price correction. In B.C., there was a 29% drop in year-overyear sales in February—signalling a cooling in what is considered Canada’s most overvalued market. For buyers willing to sit out another five or so years this could mean a drop in home prices. For example, a home listed for $450,000, today, could drop in cost to $405,000 within the next five years. Good news for the patient homebuyer, but the decision to wait and buy should also factor in potential rising interest rates as well as job security and economic growth. If discounted five-year posted interest rates go up to 5% in the next five years—an increase that’s not out of the realm of possibility—then you would pay $2,249 per month (based on a 5% five-year fixed rate for a 25 year amortization on a $405,000 home, with 5% down). If you bought now, you’d be paying $2,025 per month (based on a 3% five-year fixed rate mortgage for a 25 year amortization on a $450,000 home, with 5% down).

Do You Fit Into One Of The Following Categories? ‡ 7KLQNLQJ RI UHWLUHPHQW" ‡ /HDYLQJ VRPHWKLQJ EHKLQG IRU \RXU ORYHG RQHV" ‡ 8SVL]LQJ \RXU KRPH" ‡ 5HORFDWLQJ" ‡ 'RZQVL]LQJ \RXU KRPH" ‡ &KDQJH RI OLIHVW\OH" ‡ 7KLQNLQJ RI LQYHVWPHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV" ‡ 2XW RI &XULRVLW\" ‡ 8QFHUWDLQW\ RU MXVW IHHOLQJ ORVW"

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Tan.gazine NEWS

There’s Not Going To Be A Housing Crash The latest phrase in use to predict the future of Canada’s over-inflated housing market is: “A gradual, modest downward adjustment.â€? That’s a far cry from the headlines that promised nothing short of a drastic housing price drop: ‡ %H 9HU\ $IUDLG RI WKH &DQDGLDQ +RXVLQJ %XEEOH (CBC.ca, April 16, 2012) ‡ 0HUULOO /\QFK :DUQV RI &DQDGD +RXVLQJ %XEEOH (Macleans.ca, Dec. 20, 2011) ‡ ,V &DQDGD¡V +RXVLQJ 5HERXQG )RUPLQJ D %XEEOH (realtytimes.com, Nov. 24, 2009) ‡ +RPH 3ULFHV &RXOG 'LYH ,I 5DWHV 5LVH *OREH DQG Mail, Feb. 2, 2011) ‡ 2XU 8QVWRSSDEOH +RXVLQJ 0DUNHW 0D\ +DYH 0HW ,W¡V Match (National Post, March 28, 2010) ‡ +RXVLQJ 3ULFHV 'XH WR )DOO VD\V WKLQN WDQN 7KH 6WDU Aug. 31, 2010) ‡ &DQDGD %DQN &(2V :DUQ 2Q +RXVLQJ 1RW (XURSH (Reuters Canada, Jan. 10, 2012) ‌and the list goes on. The more sober call for a “gradual adjustmentâ€? comes from a recent TD Bank report. The report, released this week, suggests that the real rate of return for housing prices, post 2015, will be about 3.5%. This shift from the average 5.4% return we’ve seen year after year for the last decade is due, in part, to a number of macro-

22 | penghocktan.com

5RPDQD .LQJ 0RQH\6HQVH April 13, 2013

economic fundamentals, such as a slow rise in average incomes, a close to stagnant national economic growth rate, Canada’s aging population and immigration figures. In short: we are returning to pre-1998 housing valuations, when nominal rates of return on real estate matched inflation at around 2%. (For those that keep track, there was a surge in home prices between 1982 and 1989, and again between 1972 and 1977).

The silver lining? For the last few years economists, financial analysts, and bloggers have warned us about the forthcoming housing crash. Don’t get me wrong, there’s still a potential fall out when this nation of debtors finally comes face to face with the impact of rising rates, but the silver lining really is that housing prices in Canada are flattening out, and returning to stable levels. While sellers may be disappointed, buyers won’t be (nor should sellers, since most of us have to buy when we sell). This is particularly true for the next couple of years, as housing prices start to gradually drop in value. As Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for 5HDO (VWDWH DQG 8UEDQ (FRQRPLFV DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI California-Berkeley, points out: “Prices are back to [increasing] 1% to 2% more than inflation over the next 10 years,� right in line with long-term appreciation DYHUDJHV $FFRUGLQJ WR GDWD FRPSLOHG E\ <DOH 8QLYHUVLW\ SURIHVVRU 5REHUW 6KLOOHU 8 6 KRPH SULFHV LQFUHDVHG RQ average, by 0.5% per year from 1890 to 2008. A 3.5% real rate of return over the next 10 years doesn’t look so bad.

Tan.gazine NEWS

Real Estate Meltdown Protection Plan

The Twitterverse is full of snippet-warnings on the impending real estate correction that’s just around the corner. This correction has been anticipated for some time but has yet to make an appearance. Some experts believe it’s just a matter of time. So what’s a real estate investor to do when things appear set to change? If you’re planning to buy, you don’t have to worry about buying high if you stay well within what you can afford and don’t plan on moving anytime soon. Buying a home you’ll stay in for the very long term doesn’t require market timing. Over the long term–think 15 years or more–your home will be one of your best investments. Of course, you have to be able to hang on to it that long, which is why over-extending yourself makes no sense. You want something that’s comfortable to manage now, and when interest rise, as they most certainly will. If you’re planning on selling within the next five years, then sooner may be better than later. Did you plan to downsize when you retired? With five or less years to go, capturing your equity now while markets are still flush makes good sense. Looking to upgrade to your forever home? You might want to wait. Lower

*DLO 9D] 2[ODGH 0RQH\6HQVH April 27, 2013

priced homes tend not to lose as much value while more expensive homes tend to feel the drop most. After a correction you may get almost as much for your existing smaller home, while you save substantially on the upgrade home you buy. If you’re staying put, stop spending your equity. Negative equity–owing more than your home is worthsucks, and if you keep tapping that equity through lines of credit or by consolidating debt to your mortgage, you’re putting your home’s value into the grey area should a correction come. Yes, it may be very tempting to pull on all that equity you built to have a fabulous family vacation or to finance the start of a new business. But if that equity disappears in a market downturn you’ll feel the gut-wrenching horror of having to write a cheque to the bank to cover the shortfall should you have to sell your home. Real estate, like every other investment, runs in cycles–sometimes up, sometimes down–and every homeowner should be prepared for both sides of the cycle. Knowing what you’re going to do next will help you make the right decision about what to do with your home and your investment.

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Tan.gazine NEWS

Check out food.chatelaine.com for more cool recipes

May 17, 2013

Super shrimp -crunch

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Tan.gazine NEWS

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