AgCountry Farm Credit Services / PLANT / March 2022
Spring Weather Outlook AND BEYOND
Written by: Eric Snodgrass, Principal Atmospheric Scientist Nutrien Ag Solutions
The 2021 growing season was dry across much of Minnesota and North Dakota while the state of Wisconsin largely saw adequate moisture. Given the drought conditions witnessed last year, many farmers and ranchers are wondering what will be in store for 2022. Let’s take a look at recent weather modeling to help piece together what may be coming our way.
There is concern, given the La Niña and the behavior of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), that the South American monsoon may slow down earlier than normal putting some of the safrinha crop at risk of finishing in drier than normal conditions. Figure 1 shows the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast for rainfall anomalies March – May 2022.
South America Our 2022 late-winter weather outlook starts in South America where despite the rapid planting of the first crop of soybeans in October and November, extensive drought developed across Southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina. Temperatures hit triple digits several days in a row in Argentina with very little rain in December and early January, while Southern Brazil received less than half of its normal mid-season rain. Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest ag state (30% of total production), had nearly ideal weather but could not make up for the yield loss in Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, and Rio Grande Do Sul. The result has been a roughly 20 MMT reduction in total soybean production for the 2021-22 growing season. Safrinha corn planting (about 75% of Brazil’s total corn production) is ahead of the five-year average planting pace, but mid- to late-February has been very dry in Southern Brazil, while heavy rains have slowed the planting pace in northeastern Brazil (20% of the growing area). The result is that total ag productivity across South America moving through March and April is neutral to lower.
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Figure 1 Precipitation Anomalies forecast for March – May 2022 by the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Model. Source: ECMWF and https://www.weatherbell.com
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