The War In Ukraine: Effects And Possible Outcomes

THE WAR IN UKRAINE:

Effects and Possible Outcomes

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the earth-shattering development of 2022. Still struggling with a global pandemic, humanity plunged into a dramatically heightened state of anxiety and fear as it watched a large and defiant Eastern European nation defend itself against a monstrous and unethical military onslaught from the Russian military. Russian president Vladimir Putin became an international villain, while Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy became a symbol of stubborn resistance against some of the most brutal forms of military aggression. The idea of nuclear conflict and obliteration has even been tossed around more so than at any other time since the Cuban Missile Crisis sixty years ago. What’s transpired in Ukraine over the past couple of months has been a crisis of epic proportions, and on so many levels as well. The war has created a humanitarian nightmare in Europe. The images of fleeing Ukrainian refugees and their collective suffering before an international audience has been unprecedented. The role of social media in this development cannot be overstated. The global economy has had to adjust. Stalled financial growth and rapid inflation has wreaked havoc across the planet. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the European Union have been historically severe, leading to the suspension of trade with Russia by over 1,000 international companies. McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Starbucks are among those companies who have withdrawn from Russia altogether. Throughout this war, Ukraine has demanded more support from the international community in its resistance against the unmerciful Russian onslaught. Other nations, including the United States, have been reluctant to make any military commitment in Ukraine. The Biden Administration has feared an escalation of hostilities with Putin’s Russia, which it believes may very well have the potential of becoming nuclear, a type of deadly game that Joe Biden and other Western leaders want no part of. However, the United States and other European nations have gotten into the business of shipping Western weaponry to the Ukrainians. This tactic has proved effective throughout the war so far, and has prevented the Ukrainians from being overrun and occupied by a largely ineffective and uncoordinated Russian military. Nevertheless, a retired American major general believes that the West will have to make a stronger commitment in support of the Ukrainian resistance if it wants to see Putin swallow the bitter pill of defeat in Eastern Europe. After advising the Ukrainian military for six years on a US government contract, retired US Army Major General Mike Repass has said publicly that the Ukrainian supply chain for military commitment is inefficient. He has also explained that additional military forces will be needed to drive the Russians out of the country. Repass believes that the United States and its allies should build up a Ukrainian strategic force of five brigades, around 40,000 troops, that are capable of mounting offensive operations. In defending his proposal, the retired major general looks towards history. Throughout the Cold War, which lasted from 1945 to 1991, countries supplied with Soviet weaponry consistently found themselves outgunned by superior western armaments. The Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991 is a fitting example. In that conflict, the Russian-armed Iraqi Army, then touted as the fourth largest army on the planet with its frequently glorified Republican Guard units, was historically obliterated by a more technologically advanced Western military in the deserts of Kuwait and Southern Iraq. Iraqi morale quickly melted in the face of not only the latest Western military technology of that time, but also before an allied force built for maneuver. Eastern militaries generally are not indoctrinated into the ways of maneuver warfare, and are committed to a military model of attritional warfare, which has proven to be severely outdated on the modern battlefield. Despite these pleasant realities, the Russian Army is massive, and has the numbers to replace its losses. So Repass believes that, without the introduction of a highly-maneuvered Ukrainian force to the fight against the Russians, this war could drag on for years. Such a development would likely not land in the favor of the Ukrainians, who need an all out ejection of Russians out of its country in order to claim victory. He points out that even a stalemate would be a victory for Putin. Ultimately, the world continues to monitor this war within a state of terror. Everyday, we witness the death and tragedy that accompanies human war culture. We see a nation battling tirelessly for its survival during an armed assault that inspires us to make nostalgic connections to wars of the past century. Regardless of the outcome of this war, and our past illusions of a post-Cold War era, the three decade hope of a New World Order has been shattered.

- Written by Max Jefferson