Holding Somalia together

THE unsuccessful attempt to establish a unitary national government in Somalia, coupled with the citizens' aversion to a strong central government based in Mogadishu, has revived the idea of federalism in the country. Following the ousting of Siyad Barre in 1991, Somalia became fragmented with rebel groups controlling different zones based on clan affiliations.

The Somalia National Movement (SNM) from Hargeisa advocated for the secession of Somaliland, claiming historical and colonial disparities between British Somaliland and Italian Somalia. This led to the self-declared Republic of Somaliland in 1991, which, although unrecognised, has its own currency and relatively stable governance structure.

In the north eastern part of the country, the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF) rebel group has governed the region. Amidst chaos and lawlessness, community leaders, armed factions, and former technocrats from the Barre regime formulated a political ideology to establish a federal member state known as Puntland in 1998. Puntland has contributed to relative stability, attracting skilled individuals from the strife-torn southcentral region and promoting economic and infrastructural development.

Despite numerous attempts by Somali elites and international support, building a functioning state in Somalia has remained challenging. The establishment of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia in 2004 aimed to pave the way for a permanent federal state through a constitutional referendum and multi-party elections.

Federalisation was expected to empower federal member states to handle state-level administration, revenue management, tax collection and elections. However, apart from Puntland, which predates the Federal Government of Somalia, the establishment of four federal member states in the south-central region has encountered various challenges of control over their areas of jurisdiction.

The Federal Government of Somalia, primarily based in Mogadishu, has faced significant challenges in extending its authority beyond the capital. The absence of cooperation and ties with Puntland and the self-declared state of Somaliland has further complicated the situation. The current administration is also grappling with conflicts involving Puntland, Somaliland, and South West State, which hold considerable territory from the north to the south west of the country.

These complexities have made it difficult to reach compromises, particularly due to the secession of Somaliland, the semi-autonomous nature of Puntland, and the federal government's struggle to move beyond zones under the protection of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Moreover, all the south-central based Federal Member States have experienced issues related to stagnant administration in specific towns, leading to challenges in delivering effective services and causing discontent.

The lack of political unity, fragmentation along clan lines, and absence of a single currency, unified national defence force, and coherent foreign and defence policies pose significant challenges. Despite being recognised as one nation by the international community, Somalia remains politically divided, with a risk of further fragmentation and potential redrawing of the map of the Horn of Africa.

The road to a stable and functional state in Somalia requires addressing constitutional crises, ensuring the inclusion of all states, including Somaliland, enhancing cooperation between the Federal Government of Somali and Federal Member States, and compromise among political elites.

The African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), which was initiated in 2007, has undergone a transition and became ATMIS in April 2022. The mission has begun the process of withdrawing its 22,000-strong forces, with the first 2,000 soldiers scheduled for drawing down at the end of June of this year.

This withdrawal raises concerns about the potential worsening of the situation in Somalia, surpassing even the challenges faced in Afghanistan. While the Taliban's objectives were primarily focused on gaining territorial control within Afghanistan, Al-Shabaab, with its absence of territorial boundaries, poses a greater risk by potentially declaring war against neighbouring countries.

Compounding the situation is the absence of robust national security institutions capable of assuming security responsibilities from the ATMIS forces. Despite significant international funding towards the establishment of a functional Somali National Army, political disagreements among Somali clans have hindered progress. Consequently, government forces remain loyal to their respective clans and warlords, lacking cooperation among themselves.

Additionally, the Ethiopian People's Defence Forces (EPDF) have been a close security partner to Somalia since its establishment in exile. They have played a crucial role in combating Islamists and other anti-government elements since 2007, contributing to the reestablishment of the Somali government in Mogadishu.

The EPDF has also provided security support to the relatively stable northern regions, namely Puntland and Somaliland. However, the ongoing political instability and ethnic-based tensions between the Ethiopian government and the ethnic-based states may eventually impact the existence of the Federal Government of Somalia, as well as the stability of regions such as Puntland and Somaliland.

In light of these developments, it is crucial for stakeholders to address the security vacuum that will be left by the withdrawal of ATMIS forces and work towards establishing inclusive and effective national security institutions. Regional cooperation and diplomatic efforts will be essential to navigate the complex dynamics and prevent further destabilisation in Somalia and the wider region.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the task of establishing a cohesive and functional nation in Somalia poses significant challenges. The international community, including the African Union, has followed a conventional and restrained approach in its interventions, limited by the principles of respecting state sovereignty.

This approach made no impact and, consequently, it has become imperative to prioritise regional security rather than single state sovereignty and it is time to exert pressure on Somali politicians to make a definitive choice between embracing nationhood or seeking alternative compromises aligned with the desires of the Federal Member States. This may involve recognising entities such as Somaliland or Puntland as independent states.

Alternatively, it is worth contemplating the possibility of pursuing an alternative path, such as aligning Somalia with regional blocs like the East African Community (EAC). This approach could entail the permanent deployment of East African forces in Mogadishu until Somalia is capable of establishing its own stability and self-sufficiency. The objective would be to mitigate the potential risks that Somalia poses to itself, its neighbouring region and the global community.