PREDICTING SA’S STATE ELECTION

Words by Sebastian Andrew

Labor is going to win the upcoming South Australian state election.

Perhaps, two months out from the election, when anything can change so drastically at a moment’s notice (just think of how quickly COVID sprang up and devoured all public and policymaking attention) it is unwise to make an election prediction. Let alone suggest that an incumbent premier will be ousted.

However, given things have taken a horrible turn for the Marshall government in these last few months, with little indication that the situation will turn in the government’s favour, I have been emboldened to make this prediction, and stand by it. I’ll be happy (well, not entirely, given how spectacularly the Liberal Party has mismanaged this current crisis) to be proven wrong, but so far, nothing’s really screaming ‘Steven Marshall’s going to win this’.

The November 23rd border reopening sank Marshall’s electoral promises. Marshall hoped to capitalise on families reuniting for Christmas, and a sense of him having shepherded the state successfully through the pandemic. But since the reopening, going about daily life has become a game of Russian Roulette. You go out for lunch, to the gym, even to the shops, and you risk getting COVID or being implicated as a close contact, because the virus isn’t just limited to a few sites, that can be traced and quickly quarantined, it’s everywhere! Further, the commencement of in-person schooling is likely to only increase anxiety and anger amongst a potentially crucial voting

bloc – parents – who may traditionally vote Liberal but could easily switch if they perceive their child’s safety at risk.

For all the talk of what reopening would do for the economy, businesses are worse off than before, struggling due to closures, staff shortages, and customers voluntarily limiting their movements due to fears of contracting covid or a close contact status. All of which is almost guaranteed to limit the government’s support amongst typically Liberal-inclined small business owners, as well as consumers who are frustrated that their favourite cafés are closed. I see this as playing a large role in the seat of Adelaide (CBD and adjacent northern suburbs) flipping to Labor and putting seats reliant on tourism/visitors at risk.

On the preventative side of COVID, there is little that Marshall can hold up proudly, in the months leading up to the state election. He dropped the ball on exposure sites, with SA health no longer listing them publicly, due to the sheer amount. This is of course a tragedy, given the state’s contact tracing regime was once the gold standard in Australia. Now it’s in a pitiful state. He dropped the ball on testing, forcing people to wait up to ten hours in long cues to obtain a PCR test. His rollout of RAT tests was initially messy, plagued with supply shortages, leading to steep prices within the private sector. While some of these are only relevant to people who have COVID or had to test (which is still a lot of people!) they highlight the incompetence and unpreparedness of this government. Again, not exactly a great look if you’re trying to convince people to stick with you – especially if all your opponent has to do is say how they’ll do it better.

Reopening the borders will be seen by the electorate as a purely political decision. If it weren’t, then Marshall would have slammed them shut the moment the Omicron variant was a threat and re-evaluated the risk. Instead he went full-steam-ahead and, as the expression goes, ‘let it rip’ just because he needed rosy media coverage of family reunions to boost his re-election.

Besides COVID, things look otherwise bleak for the government. While hospitals struggle for funding and instances of ambulance ramping dominate the health debate, the government insists on focussing on building another stadium, giving Labor an easy attack line in the midst of a deadly pandemic. And Marshall’s woes aren’t limited to external issues.

Australian voters in various state and territory elections have shown a strong preference towards incumbent governments during the pandemic. If a government’s done a satisfactory, even okay job, then they stay, why risk bringing in a new leader? The problem for Marshall is that over these last few months, even years, his premiership hasn’t exactly oozed stability. Since the last election he’s lost three of his

MPs to the crossbench due to controversies or disagreements, forcing him to govern in the minority. But what killed any hope of him making a ‘stability’ pitch was the seizure of the speakership by former Liberal MP Dan Cregan. This, more than anything, highlighted just how little control Marshall holds over the House and for lack of a better word, left him looking like a fool. This may be a ‘nicher’ issue, nowhere near as forward in the minds in the electorate as COVID concerns, but it nonetheless takes away any legitimacy of Marshall arguing that an incumbent government is a consistent government. Further, it makes Labor, who’s remained disciplined and united under Malinauskas, a more promising option in dealing with COVID, given they won’t be distracted by internal party conflict.

So there is my reasoning as to why I see Marshall’s re-election chances being bleak, and thus expect a Labor victory. Out of 47 seats, I expect the House to be 24 Labor, 20 Liberal, and 3 Independent. Labor will gain the seats of King, Adelaide, Elder, Colton, and Florey, while retaining all their seats. The Liberals will gain the seats of Waite, Narungga, and Frome from the independents. Independent Frances Bedford will gain Newland while independents Troy Bell and Dan Cregan will retain their seats.