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2003 Heat Wave
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Figure!4.7.#Annual#values#of#total#area#burned#(vertical#axis,#in#hectares)#between#1980#and#2004#compiled#by#the# FIGURE 10. Annual values of total burnt area between 1980 and 2004 compiled by the Portuguese#Forest#Institute#(DGRF).#The#wildfire#scars#were#evaluated#based#on#visual#interpretation#and#onJscreen# Portuguese Forest Institute (DGRF). The wildfire scars were evaluated based on visual interdigitizing#of#data#from#the#MODIS#satellite#instrument.#The#minimum#mapping#unit#(i.e.,#the#size#of#the#smallest#fire# pretation and on-screen digitizing of MODIS red-green-blue (RGB) color composites, based on channel 7 (2.105 µm–2.155 µm), channel 2 (0.841 µm–0.876 µm), and channel 1 (0.620 scars#mapped)#is#100#hectares.#Source:#GarcíaJHerrera#et#al.#(2010).#
µm). The spatial resolution of channels 1 and 2 is 250 m, while that of channel 7 is # µm–0.670 500 m. The minimum mapping unit (i.e., the size of the smallest fire scars mapped) is 100 ha. # The#European#heat#wave#of#2010,#which#was#centered#on#western#Russia,#was#in#fact#more# that employed a terrestrial biosphere simulation model, Ciais et al. (2005) intense#and#covered#a#larger#area#than#that#in#2003.#In#Russia#alone,#the#death#toll#was#~55,000,# have estimated a 30% reduction in gross primary productivity over Europe. wildfires#burned#more#than#1#million#hectares,#and#total#economic#losses#were#estimated#at#about# According to these authors, this decrease resulted in a strong anomalous net U.S.#$50#billion#(Barriopedro#et#al.,#2011).#Ongoing#analyses#will#be#able#to#better#place#this#event# source of carbon dioxide (0.5 Pg C/yr) to the atmosphere and reversed the in#perspective#with#the#2003#heat#wave.## effect of four years of net ecosystem carbon sequestration. Moreover, taking # into account historical records of crop yields suggests that such a reduction in Europe’s primary productivity is unprecedented during the last century The#threat#to#agriculture#from#heat#stress#is#clearly#a#serious#one,#given#the#interlinked#nature#of# (Ciais et al., 2005). Jolly et al. (2005) show that this reduction in productivity the#world#food#supply#through#trade.#Lobell#et#al.#(2012)#used#nine#years#of#satellite# should have occurred below 1400m asl, while vegetation above that altitude measurements#of#wheat#growth#in#northern#India,#one#of#the#most#intense#wheat#cultivation# should have experienced an increase in productivity due to extended areas#on#the#planet,#to#measure#the#rate#of#wheat#senescence#(progression#from#plant#maturity#to# growing season and water stress similar to average conditions during 2003. death)#as#a#function#of#temperature.#The#authors#found#that#senescence#accelerates#following# To assess the response of the vegetation, we used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) fields derived from images acquired by the VEGexposure#to#temperatures#greater#than#34°C,#resulting#in#a#significantly#reduced#growing#season# ETATION instrument onboard satellite SPOT. Monthly average values were (by#8J10#days),#and#hence#lower#crop#yields#(by#15J20%).## available between 1999 and 2004, # computed from the original 10-day values for a European window (latitude 35.72◦ N to 58.22◦ N, longitude 11.00◦ W to Livestock#are#also#at#risk.#For#example,#in#the#U.S.#Northeast,#dairy#ranks#as#the#most# 23.20◦ E). Then, we obtained long-term monthly averages of NDVI for the economically#important#contributor#to#the#agricultural#sector,#bringing#in#$3.6#billion#annually.# period 1999–2004 (excluding 2003). Figure 12 shows the anomalies of NDVI The#optimal#temperature#for#milk#production#ranges#from#40°F#to#75°F#(4.4°C#to#24°C),# depending#on#humidity.#Currently,#some#areas#of#New#York#and#Pennsylvania,#where#over#80%#of# production#occurs,#experience#more#than#20#days#a#year#with#daily#maximum#SAT#over#90°F.# Warming#summer#temperatures#are#already#having#negative#effects#on#dairy#operations.# Increasing#intensity#and#frequency#of#heat#stress,#which#depresses#milk#production#and#birthing# rates#in#cows,#is#taking#a#huge#financial#toll#on#dairy#farmers:#around#$2.4#billion#for#U.S.#farmers# overall#and#more#than#$80#million#for#Northeastern#U.S.#farmers#in#2002#(Frumhoff#et#al.,#2007;# St.#Pierreet#al.,#2003).#At#the#same#time,#dairy#operations#should#see#some#benefit#from#decreased# heating#costs#in#winter;#but#this#does#not#appear#to#have#been#documented.# 64" Determining"the"Impact"of"Climate"Change"on"Insurance"Risk"and"the"Global"Community"