Exhibit II Scenario II is calibrated to Scenario I, but assumes that premiums will increase at 7.5 percent per year instead of 6 percent. Scenario II: 7.5% Premium Increase, No Behavioral Response Cumulative 2013-2019 Total Projected Premiums (billions)
Premiums Subject to Tax (billions)
Excise Tax (billions)
Enrollees Affected by Tax in 2019 (millions) a
$2,481.4
$182.2
$72.9
13.5
High-risk professions
854.3
70.5
28.2
4.1
Retirees 55+
608.8
174.9
70.0
3.2
4,070.2
137.9
55.2
19.4
Category
17 High-cost states
All others Total
$8,014.7 $565.5 $226.2 40.1 Those affected by the tax include those reducing benefits, opting into a less-costly plan, higher premium contributions or dropping coverage altogether. There are approximately two individuals per “enrollee.�
a
Scenario II: Tax Revenue by Year (billions) Category
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Cumulative 2010-2019
17 High-cost states
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.4
$1.9
$4.5
$9.8
$13.7
$18.5
$24.2
$72.9
High-risk professions
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.6
2.4
3.5
4.8
6.5
8.4
28.2
Retirees 55+
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.3
6.6
8.0
9.6
11.4
13.4
15.6
70.0
All others
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
2.1
3.6
5.7
9.0
13.7
19.9
55.2
Total
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$7.9
$12.2
$18.6
$28.6
$38.9
$52.0
$68.1
$226.2
Scenario II: Enrollees Subject to Tax (millions) Category 17 High-cost states High-risk professions
2010 0.0 0.0
2011 0.0 0.0
2012 0.0 0.0
2013 0.6 1.2
2014 2.2 1.4
2015 4.5 1.6
2016 8.4 2.6
2017 12.4 2.7
2018 12.9 3.9
2019 13.5 4.1
Retirees 55+ All others
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
2.6 2.1
2.8 3.5
2.9 5.2
3.0 7.6
3.1 11.3
3.2 14.9
3.2 19.4
Total
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.5
9.8
14.2
21.5
29.5
35.0
40.1
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