Mortality Example 2 Setting anticipated experience assumption, Male Preferred and Male Super Preferred Nonsmoker risks
(1) (2)
Years % own exp % industry table Experience Mortality Assumption % 2008 VBT RR80 Assumption as % 08VBT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25+ 100% 100% 100% 92% 83% 75% 67% 58% 50% 42% 33% 25% 17% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 17% 25% 33% 42% 50% 58% 67% 75% 83% 92% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25+ 90% 92% 98% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
(3) (4)
Using Conservation of total deaths Super Preferred NS (35%) % 2008 VBT RR80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25+ % own exp 82% 84% 90% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% % industry table 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
(5) (6)
Preferred NS (65%) % 2008 VBT RR80 % own exp % industry table
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25+ 94% 96% 102% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Anticipated Experience Assumption Male, SPNS = [ (1) * (3) ] + [ (2) * (4) ] Male, PNS = [ (1) * (5) ] + [ (2) * (6) ] Weighted Check > Aggregate
1 82% 94% 90% Pass
2 84% 96% 92% Pass
3 90% 102% 98% Pass
4 87% 98% 95% Pass
5 88% 99% 95% Pass
6 89% 98% 95% Pass
7 91% 99% 96% Pass
8 92% 99% 97% Pass
9 93% 99% 97% Pass
10 94% 99% 98% Pass
11 96% 100% 98% Pass
12 97% 100% 99% Pass
13 98% 100% 99% Pass
14 99% 100% 100% Pass
15 100% 100% 100% Pass
16 100% 100% 100% Pass
17 100% 100% 100% Pass
18 100% 100% 100% Pass
19 100% 100% 100% Pass
20 100% 100% 100% Pass
21 100% 100% 100% Pass
22 100% 100% 100% Pass
23 100% 100% 100% Pass
24 100% 100% 100% Pass
NAIC LATF Conference Call, May 17, 2012 Copyright Š 2012 by the American Academy of Actuaries All Rights Reserved.
25+ 100% 100% 100% Pass
19