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THE EDITOR SAYS
SITTING PRETTY The governing political side can rejoice and rightfully so: even as the means to the end were widely questioned, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has squeezed the economy until, after nearly a decade, Hungary has exited the Euro− pean Union’s excessive deficit procedure. Although the European Commission’s proposal still has to be approved by the next assembly of EU finance minis− ters, the biggest question now is what Orbán will do with the economic leeway that becomes available less than a year before the next general elections in 2014. The prime worry among politicians, as well as investors, was whether the government would look to open the money taps to improve public sentiment with the aim of boosting votes. While Economy Minister Mihály Varga repeatedly stated that no such plans are on the agenda, a look at the situation shows that there is also no need. It is becoming very clear that the next elections are Orbán’s to lose and there isn’t any need for budget hand− outs. Perhaps the memory of the 2002 elections is still vivid in Orbán’s mind, when despite all the odds and all the polls, the first Fidesz government was ousted from gov− ernment and was kept in opposition for the ensuing eight years. This time, he went for sure. High on the agenda was restructuring electoral districts in several locations that now clearly favor
the conservative side. Voting rights were extended to ethnic and expat Hungarians, still relying on the assumption that the Hungarian minority in neighbor− ing countries will vote for the right, especially since the left wing campaigned against a similar measure a few years ago. The governing Fidesz party is campaigning on a virtually daily basis to point out the harmful policies enacted by former Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai in the past, who has reemerged as a challenger for 2014. (The rhetoric came fast on the heels of communication from Fidesz that it doesn’t consider Bajnai a viable threat.) The government has likely already enacted the brunt of its pre−election package by forcing the utilities to shoulder a mandatory price reduction, which may altogether reach 30% by the end of the year. This has boosted approval rat− ings without affecting the central budget. Its persistent lead in the polls is also supported by last− ing fragmentation among the political opposition, which is no closer to crystallizing the terms of any cooperation that could result in victory at the next elections. There is still time and game changing events have been known to happen, but right now, betting on another four years of Fidesz governance doesn’t seem a particularly risky bet.
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Viktor Orbán’s second government celebrated its third year in office on May 29 and marked the occasion by reliving the achievements of the tumultuous period between 2010 and the spring of 2013. According to a sur− vey published by the Századvég politi− cal think−tank, the majority of Hungari− ans think that Orbán’s government is per− forming way better than its left−liberal predecessors. A sep− arate survey by the Századvég institute found that the two− thirds government majority has already realized 75% of the things it promised before its 2010 elec− tion victory. While other anal− yses from sources that are less... sup− portive in their cover− age of Fidesz say the ratio could actually be reversed, it should also be noted that the Orbán’s success had many casualties and still carries the pros− pect of dire conse− quences in the future. The government was always more than ready to use its super majority to make in−depth changes to the fabric of society as well as the economy – often over− night, leading to all sorts of commotion – but it was also very focused regarding which layers of society are worth
putting at a disadvantage and which are sacrosanct. Accordingly, it spared no expense to keep pensions above inflation and also maintained benefits for the elderly, while revamping the education system that led to the exclusion of thousands of young people from ter− tiary education and com− pelled them to seek better opportunities abroad. It introduced a flat rate taxation system that favored the middle class and the wealthy while it limited welfare for the impoverished. It introduced crip− pling taxes on foreign− owned companies on the grounds that they should pitch in more to support a troubled economy, which only led to prices increas− ing and lending coming to a standstill. It played what could well be an election−win− ning card and reduced household utility costs at the expense of the providers, guaranteeing that necessary develop− ments to the infrastruc− ture are now off the agenda with the looming prospect of outages. It has completely reshaped the demo− cratic institutional sys− tem to its own taste and solidified it for years to come on a constitutional basis. When all is put on the scale a few years from now, let’s just hope we won’t be wishing it had done much, much less.
ORBÁN’S SUCCESS HAD MANY CASUALTIES AND STILL CARRIES THE PROSPECT OF DIRE CONSEQUENCES IN THE FUTURE