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10 Comment Dedicated to the legacy of the late Hameed Nizami
Arif Nizami Editor
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Blood in the streets Anarchy is not far behind
M
edia, they say, is a mirror for the society. Every time one flicks between TV channels or flips through newspaper pages, stories of violence, murder, kidnappings and killings stare right back at the viewers, or readers, as the case may be. This much lawlessness, in every society, is an indication of a system-wide breakdown in law and order, responsible for which are mainly the government itself, law enforcement agencies, security and intelligence regimen. By the looks of it, the miscreants and terrorists seem to have given a drubbing to the government on the security front. Every major city in the country has seen terrorism in one way or another. Only the other day, Karachi saw a bomb blast in a bus, killing six and injuring 50; Quetta saw four policemen killed; Peshawar received 21 dead bodies of Levies personnel; and yesterday it was Mastung where 19 Shia pilgrims were killed. And the list does not include target killings in Karachi and other cities. The terrorists are in no mood to slow down, contrary to whatever the TTP chief says. Karachi, admittedly, has problems of its own but what’s happening in other parts of the country, the interior minister, responsible for internal security, cannot justify it, specifically when he seems to be so focused on whether or not allowing the YouTube to operate in the country. A united stand against terrorism is what’s lacking among the major political and security stakeholders, making the public more vulnerable to the tactics of militants who are using terrorism as a tool to achieve their agenda. Agreed that our security and intelligence setup lacks resources and technology to track down every terrorist, but it still does not absolve them from their duty to protect the life and property of citizens. It is not rocket science to understand what and where our weak spots are, from the security point of view. One wonders, then, why our pristine intelligence agencies and LEAs can’t pinpoint the same factors and try to cover them as much as possible. The lack of political will to challenge the terrorists and skewed policy of our security establishment in choosing which terrorists to go after and which to let loose, are the main reasons why this menace still afflicts us. But that’s not the whole story, there is more. What would be the status of a society that stands divided along a number of lines, from ethnic to sectarian; the society that allows divisive and hatred spewing speeches from none other than its leading religious scholars; the society that tolerates violence and militancy; the society that has been unable to take a firm stand against terrorism for the past 11 years? Unless we ask ourselves these hard questions, and figure out the solutions to the same, a bus or two would be attacked in one city or another; a mosque or a church would be blown up around the corner of our streets; minorities would be targeted and so would be our security personnel. It’s time we delivered a heavy dosage to the infection we have allowed so long to fester, lest it takes a hold on the entire system.
Nazuk daur, again …but whiff of edge-of-the-seat fare couldn’t have been thicker
T
his year appears to give the impression of being a particularly turbulent one but skim recent history and the conclusion that, in fact, it is quite the standard fare is inevitable. One of the almost de rigueur descriptions bandied about is how the country is passing through a critical juncture. This reminds one of the hit 2009 single by pop star Shehzad Roy known for his chutzpah. Entitled Laga Reh (Keep at it), it is a pithy take on the lackadaisical mien pervading the republic. A couple of lines for inference: I’m not worried about how the country will go on/ I’m worried that it will keep going the way it is now On a serious note, Pakistan at the yearend is poised to enter, in By Kamran Rehmat many ways, a defining period in 2013. Crystal ball gazing won’t be easy by any stretch of imagination. For argument’s sake, even if the intentions are good and all the key stakeholders stay strictly within the ambit of law, in the land of Shahid Afridi, the unpredictable can happen anytime and completely change the equation. A very pertinent example would be that of Imran Khan, who, at this time of the year — last year — looked like he was on the threshold of ‘tsunamising’ a revolution. Today, he’s struggling to hold fort. There are plenty of reasons to ascribe this to but space constraints would
Monday Musings
not permit to go into greater details. Suffice it to say, while some of it were Khan’s own making, others not so as the ground beneath his feet shifted. The ground realities are rooted in whether the country is politically stable or not, whether the economy is doing well or not, whether there is law and order or not. On all three accounts, Pakistan is delicately poised. Paradoxically, the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party government is nearing a milestone that every democraticallyinclined Pakistani would be happy to see: the completion of a full term, and on course for a democratic transition. However, the fact that this would be a first in Pakistan’s 65-year-history betrays how fragile the order has been. But the singular achievement does not necessarily lie at the government’s door. The stoic role played by Nawaz Sharif as well as the supporting cast of an assertive judiciary and a vibrant media in guarding against any adventure has apparently helped achieve the goal. However, this is as far as it goes. The incumbent government has presided over the kind of bad governance never seen before. The dwindling foreign reserves, deepening energy crisis, inflation and unemployment appear to reinforce that view. The unflattering view holds despite an understanding and allowance for the security challenges faced by the government. Militancy and extremism took new forms this year with the shooting of Malala Yousafzai; the killing of Shias in Hazara; desecration of a minority graveyard; and last but not least the shocking killing of antipolio vaccinators — some as young as a 14-year-old girl volunteer! It is hard to conceive the barbarity that Malala faced last October could be transcended but the heart-rending images of teenage girl volunteers risking their lives to provide polio drops drenched in blood shocked the nation — an occurrence so dire the UN agencies pulled out its staff. But even before the country could recover from the bestial action of the obscurantist elements, Bashir Bilour, a much admired political leader of the secular Awami National Party, was
killed in a suicide blast along with his fellow party aides, and just before the year is out 21 Levies personnel were also executed by Taliban. These deaths bring into sharp focus the one overriding factor that will determine what happens in 2013: the will and ability to cope with what are ominous existential threats. The banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has already warned of hunting key figures to further their relentless war on the state. Bilour appears to have been the first. Even though the PPP government has struck a defiant note in fighting terror and extremism, doubts have surfaced about the holding of polls, President Zardari’s assurances notwithstanding. The sudden but intriguing second coming of Tahir-ul-Qadri has stirred, if not shaken, the scene. His spectacular — and surprisingly safe — show of strength last Sunday in Lahore touted “to save the state, not politics” has set the tongues wagging about the “ulterior motives” of unleashing a million-man march on Islamabad “if the government does not introduce election reforms by January 14, 2013”. The general suspicion is that both the TTP’s target-shooting and generally chaotic atmosphere arising out of stakeholders working at cross purposes may be used as a pretext to postpone the elections and a national government of technocrats formed for a substantial period to clean the house as it were before polls are conducted. The aforesaid is often dismissed as a popular conspiracy theory, but it is not entirely outside the realm of what’s possible in Pakistan. Such an idea, however, is fraught with dangerous repercussions because the situation can easily spiral out of control. In the Pakistan of old, such fare may not even have been a last resort action, but the country now has powerful competing forces that bring the equilibrium into play. As always, the whiff of edge-of-theseat fare could not have been thicker. Watch this space! The writer is Editor, Pique Magazine. He may be reached at kaamyabi@gmail.com
Why elections will happen (on time) And with that Pakistan could finally set in motion a tradition of smooth democratic transition
By Aima Khosa
I
t isn’t as if this is a big secret. Everyone has been talking about the next big challenge facing our country: the election. In normal democratic nations, there are no ‘ifs’ hanging over the idea of a government stepping down to allow another to take charge. In Pakistan, though, this is an anomaly, something unique. The intricacies and the patterns behind this fascinating game of politics are extremely wonderful to watch. Sure there is a daunting task lying ahead of us. Sure there is a big question if Pakistan as a whole will be able to manage such a task. But let us understand the beauty of it: here is a nation about to take a plunge in democracy. The weak democratic state of Pakistan is about to allow itself to heal a little. One has to appreciate the significance of it in the history of the country, if nothing else.
monday, 31 December, 2012
But there is a general (and persistent) rumour going around that Pakistan may face a delayed election at best, and no election at worst. The rumour is not baseless. The law and order situation in the country has deteriorated over the past few months. TTP launched a brazen attack in Peshawar and demonic tattoos were revealed. The anti-polio drive was suspended because volunteers came under attack, and around ten people lost their lives. The Supreme Court issued a contempt notice to MQM’s Altaf Hussain, who refused to appear before the court. ANP leader Bashir Bilour was killed in a targeted attack. Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri made an untimely return and made impractical demands to implement the constitution, or face a long march. PML-N has been shouting itself hoarse that it will not stand for delayed elections, PTI is barely holding its party together, PPP is making changes within its party to reign in more members and to secure a solid pro-PPP interim setup. So, one understands the ruckus. But one must also understand that the one thing the election has going for it is the fact that the Pakistan has a constitution. In chapter two of the constitution, article 52 (Duration of the National Assembly) clearly states that “the National Assembly shall, unless sooner dissolved, continue for a term of five years from the day of its first meeting and shall stand dissolved at the expiration of its term.” With this as a basis, what political party in Pakistan is going to go against the consti-
tution and postpone the elections without setting in motion a series of events the likes of which the country has never seen before? If the election is delayed, and the country descends into chaos, what will happen? The logical answer is calling in the military. It is doubtful that the country’s leadership would want to go down that road (again). And who is going to demand the return of the army? The PML-N, a party that already has had strained relations with the armed forces? The controversial MQM? The weakened PTI, that has had a history of supporting Musharraf and has since then called for a democratic Pakistan? PPP, the party that may cause the disruption in the first place? Or would it be Tahir-ul-Qadri, a man who has already faced so much backlash and ridicule for his long march threat? What is Qadri going to do at the end of his long march? Orchestrate a deal with the establishment? How would that, still, postpone the elections? A military takeover today will not be tolerated. The media is freer than ever before, the judiciary is stronger than ever before and the political consciousness among the masses is better than ever before. Pakistan as a whole has been picking up pieces from what was left of it after several generals ruled the country. No one wants the military called in. Even under such questionable circumstances, no one has said that they’d prefer the generals watching over the elections – because they all know that if that came to be, the elec-
tions may not happen again. Moreover, it is doubtful that Pakistan’s armed forces would risk wasting the five years they have spent trying to build a better military-civilian relationship. One can only hope that the military has matured beyond that. The armed forces, over the last five years, have tried very hard to distance themselves from Pakistan’s democratic process. Yes, the military has flexed its muscle a couple of times over the last few years – old habits do die hard. But for the most part, the civilian government has been allowed to function with all of its eccentricities. One must also remember that dictatorial regimes world over are meeting their logical end and Pakistan’s generals are aware of it too. There is also a strong belief that it may not be a question of the military taking over. It may more be a question of whether a civilian-technocrat setup, backed by the establishment, is in store for us. This, too, could be achieved by delaying the elections and setting up regime which has the approval and/or the backing of the establishment without the generals having to step in directly. That may be more likely than a direct military takeover. However, that too has the same argument. How does one achieve a delay in the elections without going against the constitution? By ensuring that the situation gets worse than before? That, again, is very likely. But at the risk of sounding repetitive, how does one justify a move against the constitution
they are so eager to uphold? Elections are a natural part of ensuring a nation’s transition to a stronger future. India’s Indira Gandhi was assassinated and one of the country’s biggest, bloodiest massacres ensued as a result. Despite such chaos, the election was held as demanded by their constitution. Despite various separatist movements in the country (three main secessionist movements of Khalistan, Assam and Kashmir and small movements in Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur and, Nagaland), the country continues to uphold a strong tradition of holding its elections on time. One could say that because the democratic process in India was facilitated because of its elections, the country has managed to build stronger institutions and keep itself together. With this lesson in mind, it is imperative to understand that the elections must be held on time, and so far, despite what all rumours suggest, there is no reason why anyone would challenge the constitution so blatantly and postpone the country’s electoral process. So let the rumour mills run. Let the politicians sweat a little over the fear that elections may get delayed. If the general elections are allowed to happen as scheduled, Pakistan would finally set in motion a tradition of smooth democratic transition. The writer is a staff member at Pakistan Today