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Anybody can become angry — that is easy, but to be angry with the right person and to the right degree and at the right time and for the right purpose, and in the right way — that is not within everybody's power and is not easy. –Aristotle
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wednesday, 7 August, 2013
a good omen PML-N in a cooperative mood
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israeli-palestinian negotiations The role of public opinion vital to successful outcome
Washington Watch dR JAmES J ZOGby
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HERE are plenty of reasons to be cynical about the US Secretary of State John Kerry’s relaunch of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. The personalities and the politics involved do not immediately inspire confidence. Nevertheless, I choose not to be negative, partly because it is always easy to sit on the sidelines and take potshots. The more important consideration is, because peace is so essential to the lives and futures of the peoples of the region and to American interests in the Middle East, that any good faith effort deserves support and a chance to succeed. Secretary Kerry has insisted that the talks be held in private with no leaks, hype or “spin”. While it makes sense to protect the negotiations from the relentless pressures of the media and other forms of external interference, a cautionary note is in order. There is an intimate relationship between Israeli and Palestinian public opinion and the successful outcome of any peace negotiations. In the end, no matter how clever or skillfully arranged the formula for compromise, it must pass the test of being accepted by both sides. When we have polled both Israeli and Palestinian publics in order to see where compromise can be found, our efforts come up short. Too often what we find is that the most Israelis indicate a willingness to give in any peace agreement falls far short of the Palestinian minimum requirements for a just settlement. The negotiators, if they are worth their salt, know this. They, therefore, address each issue not merely as an abstract problem to be solved, but as a matter which must, in the end, be accepted by their respective publics. Concretizing this imperative, both Israeli and Palestinian leaderships have pledged to submit the product of the negotiations
to a referendum. This makes it especially clear that both societies must be ready and willing to endorse any compromise arrangement for peace. Ignoring the vital role that will be played by public opinion in this process, therefore, can doom the entire effort from the start. Peace, like any political compromise, must be grounded in the possible. As I have noted, our polling establishes that, at this point, peace does not appear to be possible. Paralleling the negotiations, the real work that must be done is to expand the range of the possible by changing public attitudes on both sides. This imperative becomes all the more urgent when we see how at any sign of progress the opponents of peace immediately step up their efforts to poison the well of public discourse. Just recall how after the Oslo Accords were signed in 1993, even before the ink had dried, the LIKUD activated their networks in the US and pushed Congress to pass legislation to negatively encumber any Palestinian aid program that might have created Palestinian confidence in the process. Or how after the Wye Agreement was signed in Washington, Ariel Sharon, who opposed the agreement, urged his supporters to “take the hilltops” and establish settlement outposts in sensitive areas of the West Bank. Or how Hamas, in response to each step forward in the peace process, stepped up its campaign of violence in an effort to take the process a step backward by embarrassing the Palestinian leadership and creating fear and mistrust among Israelis. We can be sure that the opponents of peace will be active this time, as well. Even a casual reading of the recent press and political commentary on both sides makes this so very clear. Look, for example, at the hysteria being created in Israel over the government’s agreement to free 104 Palestinian long-term prisoners. If left uncontested, the harsh rhetoric created in response to this “confidence building” gesture, may sabotage its implementation or at the very least make it the last such gesture. The question is, will those who support an agreement not only be willing to meet these new challenges, but be able to make up for lost ground due to past failures and decades of hostility and mistrust? So we can agree that the negotiations led by
Secretary Kerry must be private, but alongside this effort the US, Israeli and Palestinian leadership must be bold in changing the public discourse and challenging the opponents of peace. Here is where President Obama can play an especially critical role. His speech in Cairo and his more recent visits and remarks in Jerusalem and Ramallah were important, but these speeches cannot be the end of his involvement. They should be repeated at critical moments during the next few months. The Israelis and Palestinians need to be presented a vision of an alternate future, one that is so attractive and compelling that they will be drawn to it. They need to have this future vision so that they can embrace it with hope and contrast it both with the present unacceptable reality and the future that lies before them if they do not change course. At the same time, the President cannot be the only actor in this effort. Those who embrace a different and better future for Israelis and Palestinians need to come together and be strengthened in their resolve to face down those who oppose peace. An initial step the President can take is to convene Jewish and Arab Americans who support peace urging them to work together in support of a just resolution to the IsraeliPalestinian conflict. If the negotiations are to bear fruit and if the product of these efforts is to have any chance for success, it must have a support-base both in the U.S. and in Israel and Palestine. For peace to succeed, there must be a constituency that works for peace. The relaunched peace effort led by Secretary Kerry may or may not succeed. If it does, it will not be because the negotiators, alone, did their work. It will succeed only if both societies are prepared to accept the results of their efforts. If they fail to reach an agreement, or if they conclude one, but find that the ground under them has been eroded by mistrust and fear, we will not get another chance, for at least a generation, to find the way forward toward peace in the Holy Land. That is why it is so important that both societies, and Americans who support peace, must be engaged now - before the opponents of peace get the upper hand.
The Israelis and Palestinians need to be presented a vision of an alternate future, one that is so attractive and compelling that they will be drawn to it.
The writer is President, Arab American Institute.
CCORDING to media reports, PML-N government and the opposition party PPP have agreed on the name of Justice (retd) Rana Bhagwandas for appointment as NAB Chairman. The name was actually proposed by the PPP and the PML-N opted to withdraw the names presented by it for that coveted post. Not only that, it asked the PPP to prepare draft legislation to remove the legal impediments in the way of his appointment. viewed in the mALIk muhAmmAd AShRAF backdrop of declaring the appointments of two former Chairmen NAB as null and void for the reason that they were made without consultation with the opposition as required under NAB Ordinance, the consensus between the two major political entities on the issue is a marked departure from the past politics centred on narrow political interests. The cooperative spirit shown by both the parties in resolving an issue of national importance is indeed a good omen. Pakistan presently is beset with colossal challenges like removing the existentialist threat posed by terrorism and religious extremism, finding an amicable solution to the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan, tiding over the debilitating energy crisis, revival of an economy that is in a free fall situation and above all consolidating the gains of democracy to ensure that the process continues uninterrupted. All these problems necessitate a meaningful and selfless collaboration between all the political entities, civil society and other stakeholders in the future of Pakistan. It is hoped that all the political forces represented in the parliament would also exhibit the same attitude and commitment. The major onus of building national consensus on the policy initiatives designed to surmount these challenges would, however, depend on how the ruling party approaches to enlist support for the national causes. Going by the record of the PML-N government so far, it can be safely inferred that it seems to have learned from its past mistakes and it really means business this time around. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif seems a politician of an altogether different breed than the Nawaz Sharif of nineties. He has shown tremendous humility in triumph by respecting the mandate of other political parties in other provinces though his party could easily have manoevured the formation of governments in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He refused to be dragged into destabilising the Azad Kashmir government by asking his party not to support the no confidence move against the sitting government. The gesture to delay the announcement of energy policy till it enjoyed the support of all the provinces was yet another positive indication of the spirit of accommodation by the ruling party and its commitment to take along all the political parties in the decision making process on issues of vital national interests. It was perhaps the result of all these conciliatory vibes that we saw Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif flanked by Chief Minister Sindh who belongs to PPP and Governor Ishratul Ibad of MQM during the PM’s recent visit to Karachi. That for a moment looked so unreal compared to crass politics of the past. The political parties are certainly setting new democratic traditions and culture which if continued with a sense of balance would indeed nurture the roots of democracy in this country. The new found bonhomie with the MQM is also a very pragmatic and necessity driven move by the PML-N and no person in his right mind can take an issue with the assertion of Nawaz Sharif that he as prime minister was duty bound to promote national unity and integration. Politics is the art of possible which indeed gives it the flexibility to deal with any eventuality. Restoring peace in Karachi and the revival of the economic activity in this industrial hub of Pakistan is utmost necessary for the revival of the economy and strengthening the process of national integration and unity. MQM and PPP are major political forces in Sindh and combined together also have an effective presence in the National Assembly and the Senate. MQM has the biggest stake in peace in Karachi in the obtaining situation. With PPP on board in regards to finding an amicable solution to the situation in Karachi, along with ANP, it can help in dismantling the militant wings of these parties and the land mafia enjoying their support who have been engaged in a turf war in the cosmopolitan city and target killings for almost over two decades. It is indeed a very convoluted undertaking that will test the political acumen and negotiating skills of the prime minister. Karachi is also being ravaged by the terrorist activities and target killings by the TTP and other sectarian outlawed outfits which perhaps pose even bigger threat to peace and tranquility in Karachi than the militant wings of the political parties. Karachi is sitting on a powder keg and unfortunately besides the terrorists, militant wings of the political parties and some unscrupulous government functionaries are involved in shipment of lethal weapons into Karachi. A former chief of IB in Balochistan once told me that he had sent a report to the government regarding the involvement of DIG Special Branch Quetta and an official of an intelligence agency in smuggling arms to Karachi, allegedly in the official car of the DIG but no action had been taken against them. It is ironic that the same DIG Special Branch was later promoted and appointed IG Sindh. Coming back to dealing with the terrorists in Karachi, it is probably utmost necessary to cleanse the city of the guns and weapons through a house to house search carried out jointly by the Army and Rangers after obtaining consensus of all the political parties. There is also a dire need to keep an eye on the new arrivals in the city. Here the citizens can play a significant role by informing the government of any new person coming to their locality or even reporting about suspicious activities occurring in their areas. Ensuring safety of the source, in addition to strengthening the intelligence network and putting in place an arrangement of sharing intelligence among different agencies and coordination with the law enforcing agencies should be the government’s top priority. Nawaz Sharif has a slew of things on his platter and surely will have to proceed with well calculated initiatives, unflinching determination and political sagacity to change the game. The writer is an academic.