OPINION MARCH 2019
The future of travel and tourism by David Edwards,
head of research and insights, VisitJersey
WHEN a little baby boy was born in Glasgow in the spring of 1987 even his nearest and dearest would probably have dismissed suggestions that before he turned 30, he’d be a two-times Wimbledon Champion and have an Olympic Gold medal to his name for good measure. But you don’t have to search far to find someone willing to predict how the future will pan out, though even if the soothsayer gets it right, this will doubtless be more down to a lucky punt than some remarkable power of prophecy. Tourism is in many ways very different now to how it was back in the 1980s, for example who would have predicted residents of mainland China would, in aggregate terms, be the world’s primary source of international tourism expenditure by a factor of two? Did most people wrongly believe that Concorde heralded a future in which all long-haul travel would be supersonic? Had anyone boldly proclaimed that one of the first things a guest arriving at a hotel reception desk would utter was set to be ‘What’s the Wi-Fi password?’
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This inability to foretell what is to come does not mean we should neglect to think about travel and tourism in the future. It is a vital part of the global economy, with the World Travel and Tourism Council estimating that it accounts for around a tenth of global GDP and a similar share of jobs, so its evolution deserves our attention. There are different ways to approach this, we could try to play the numbers game of predicting market size each year for the next couple of decades, or we could develop various scenarios that describe how people will book and consume their holidays in a world in which artificial intelligence touches every aspect of our lives. Both approaches have their merits of course but will they help us plan? Maybe. Another alternative is to try and surface the varied influences on tourism behaviour today, recognise that we can learn from history and devote some quality thinking time to how the stuff that shapes our holiday choices is changing. The big question then is what shapes the future of tourism? Well, lots. However, we can identify distinct categories of influence, all of which are inter-connected.
There is economics, for most a subject rather drier than the sands of Arizona but critically important. Politics, in the form of politicians and the policies they conjure up. Sociodemographics, changing the size, structure and attitudes of society. Travel and transportation, shaping how easily and affordably we get from A to B. Environmental matters, be that a single-use plastic bandwagon or visitors’ appetite to breathe in unpolluted air while fishing in a crystalclear river. Finally, there is technology, with the many opportunities and conundrums it presents. Each of these warrant a dedicated blog of their own but that’s for another time. Meanwhile, who wants to predict who the next Wimbledon champion from these shores will be? David will be among the speakers at the VisitAberdeenshire Tourism Conference which takes place at the Music Hall, Aberdeen, on March 20. For more information or to book your place, visit the Chamber website.