Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 Summary Consumer confidence is a unique gauge of economic activity. It is the measurement of what individuals and households think is going to happen in the future. Therefore, consumer confidence reports are one of the few forward looking data sets available to members of the public which are also of importance to business owners and executives within the wider business community. Consumer confidence reports therefore represent an important source of information for businesses, consumer advocates, researchers and policy makers. Because of the uncertainty involved it is strongly recommended that a variety of information sources be utilized by both the business community and policy makers for more effective decision-making. ABELIAN Consulting Services, in collaboration with the Barbados Today has set about trying to understand consumer confidence levels over time and have developed this series of surveys. The objective is to assess what households are experiencing and to communicate these in a manner that lead to better policy making. There reports will also assist the local business community in their forward planning and decision-making by having greater access to timely LOCAL data and information. Businesses therefore do not have to rely exclusively on the release of national data for information of this nature. This is the first instalment of the Consumer Sentiment for Barbados and we wish to sincerely thank the team at Barbados Today for facilitating the survey. We wish to especially thank the many individuals that took the time out of their busy schedules to participate in the survey and answering the questions.
Conducted by ABELIAN Consulting Services in collaboration with Barbados Today Barbados June 01, 2015
Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
SURVEY METHODOLOGY The
Consumer
designed
questions in the surveys whilst also taking into
Sentiment
survey
executed
to
and
was
capture
consumer responses in Barbados.
consideration any relevant issues currently affecting their industry and/or sector.
responses are then converted into a net balance statistic via the calculation:
The survey questions were designed by the team at ABELIAN and have taken feedback from other source including participants. The survey
would
allow
for
The
benchmarking
confidence levels among consumers in Barbados against other countries over a period of time. Opening on March 05, 2015 and closing on
đ?‘›đ?‘›đ?‘›đ?‘›đ?‘›đ?‘› đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘?đ?‘? (%) = ďż˝ Where đ?‘–đ?‘– is
the
social media by ABELIAN and the website of Barbados Today to a wider cross section of
number
of
“improved�
responses; đ?‘‘đ?‘‘ is the number of “deterioratedâ€?
responses; and đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x; is the number of “remain the sameâ€? responses;
F IGURE 1: C ONFIDENCE R ANGE
Monday April 20, 2015, the survey was distributed exclusively online via email and
(đ?‘–đ?‘– − đ?‘‘đ?‘‘) ďż˝ ∗ 100 (đ?‘–đ?‘– + đ?‘‘đ?‘‘ + đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;đ?‘&#x;)
Very low -100 -60
Low
Balanced -20
Moderate +20 +60
High +100
the consumers in Barbados.
Figure 1 shows the range of the net balance
The questions were short and simple and took
improved
on average approximately 7 minutes to complete for most respondents.
statistic which has a minimum of -100 (0 and
remained
the
same
responses) and a maximum of +100 (0 deteriorated
and
remained
the
same
The privacy of all respondents are fully
responses).
maintained as responses are anonymous
Research shows a strong positive correlation
and this shall be maintained at all times.
between
Although the survey is qualitative in nature, the reported statistic for each question is a single
net
balance
number
where
applicable. That is, for each question the respondent is asked to indicate “improved� or
“increased�,
“deteriorated�
or
metrics
confidence
and
on
the
greener
end
of
the
confidence spectrum tend to have stronger economic
performance
which
is
underpinned by the robust consumer and business activity.
“decreased�, or “remained the same�. Respondents are expected to extrapolate from their own experience driven by internal performance data when answering the
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consumer
economic growth. Countries with consistent
Page 2 of 13
Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Consumer Analytics
Nearly 2 out of every 3 respondents (62%)
The majority of respondents to this survey
were employed for wages of which 20.6%
were urban Barbados which is consistent with
earned $25,000-$49,000 and 17.9% earned
population patterns. However, nearly 30%
$50,000-$74,999.
were from Christ Church and just over 20%
24. Please indicate your current employment status.
from St. Michael with St. James following closely with 15%. Responses
Percent
Christ Church
88
29%
St. Andrew
2
1%
St. George
21
7%
St. James
44
15%
St. John
3
1%
St. Joseph
4
1%
St. Lucy
10
3%
St. Michael
62
21%
St. Peter
10
3%
St. Philip
42
14%
St. Thomas
15
5%
TOTAL
301
100%
Skipped
31
1%
Out of work but not currently looking for work
5%
Retired
1%
Security forces (Military, Police, etc.)
16%
Self-employed 1%
Unable to work 0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Majority of respondent (62%) were employed for wages, followed by those self-employed at 16%. 22. What is your age group? 16%
55 or older
24%
45 - 54
30%
35 - 44 25%
25 - 34 4% 2%
17 or younger 0%
household annual income of less than
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS
26. Please indicate your total household annual income.
There were 332 responses to the Consumer Sentiment survey for 2015 Q1.
15% 25%
$25,000 - $49,999
28%
$50,000 - $74,999
$100,000 or more
8%
Out of work and looking for work
40% of respondents indicated having total $50,000.
62%
Employed for wages
18 - 24
$75,000 - $99,999
6%
A student
Parish
Less than $25,000
1%
A homemaker
12% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
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Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Household Financial Situation 2. How has the financial situation of your household changed in the current quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier?
1. How has the financial situation of your household changed in the current quarter compared to a quarter earlier?
18%
Deteriorated a lot 11%
Deteriorated a lot
47%
Deteriorated somewhat 38%
Deteriorated somewhat
11%
Improved somewhat
43%
Unchanged
23%
Unchanged
2%
Improved a lot 8%
Improved somewhat
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
0%
Improved a lot 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Net balance (%):
100%
-52%
Confidence: LOW
Net balance (%):
-40%
When asked to compare the same quarter
Confidence: LOW
49%
of
financial
respondents situation
generally
of
their
felt
the
household
deteriorated in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the last quarter of 2014.
13%
earned
$25,000-$49,999
annually and 10% earned $50,000-$74,999 annually. 43% indicated an unchanged financial position for their households.
This
generated a LOW net balance statistic of 40%
which
indicate
low
consumer
confidence.
households
had
deteriorated.
Approximately 36% of these persons earn less 25% of these
household had 1 or 2 children under 17 residing therein. Almost one quarter of these persons also indicated
an
expectation
that
their
household financial situation will deteriorate over the next 12 months, slightly higher than those
that
expected
their
situation
indicated their household financial situation has either remained unchanged or had in fact improved. The distribution of incomes
The net balance was estimated as being LOW at -52%, showing lower confidence for this metric. Overall, the financial situation of household appear delicately poised as demonstrated by the two confidence measures above.
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to
improve over the same period.
On the brighter side, 51% of respondents
within this cohort was much more even.
indicated the financial situation of their
than $50,000 annually.
Of these 15% earned less than $25,000 annually,
one year earlier, nearly two-thirds (64%)
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Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Looking
3. How do you expect your household’s financial situation to change in the next 3 months?
greater
their
financial
position to change in the next 3 months, this
1% 0%
for
Whilst 55% don’t expect their financial
20%
Will improve a lot
expectations
shorter term.
55%
Will not change Will improve somewhat
sentiment
positions in 12 months’ time than in the
20%
Will deteriorate somewhat
consumer
appears more positive. More persons have
4%
Will deteriorate a lot
forward
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Net balance (%):
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
percentage declines to 42% when asked about the next 6 months. If further declines
-3%
Confidence: NEGATIVELY BALANCED 4. How do you expect your household’s financial situation to change in the next 6 months?
to 29% when asked about their household financial situation in 12 months’ time. This results in the net balance metrics for these 3 time period moving from negatively
4%
Will deteriorate a lot
balanced for the next 3 months to positively 24%
Will deteriorate
balanced for both the 6 months and 12 42%
Will not change
months ahead time periods. More of the
26%
Will improve
respondents that indicated an unchanged
5%
Will improve a lot 0%
10%
expectation to their financial situation for the 20%
30%
40%
50%
Net balance (%):
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
about
+3%
Confidence: POSITIVELY BALANCED
those
more
pessimistic.
expected financial position. This in itself is an
23%
indication of the weakness in consumer 29%
Will not change
confidence among households in Barbados.
34%
Will improve 7% 10%
than
improvements and deteriorations in their
Will deteriorate
0%
fortunes
increases in respondents indicating both
7%
Will improve a lot
their
As can be seen in the charts, there were
5. How do you expect your household’s financial situation to change in the next 12 months? Will deteriorate a lot
next 3 months, appear to be more optimistic
20%
30%
40%
Net balance (%):
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
+11%
Confidence: POSITIVELY BALANCED
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Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Overall Economic Situation
With respect to performance in the second
Respondents were not particularly optimistic
quarter of 2015 consumer confidence was
about short term economic prospects in
also measured as being LOW on the scale
Barbados.
but more positive when compared to 2015 Q1.
6. How do you think the overall economic situation in Barbados performed in the current quarter compared to a quarter earlier?
economic situation in the second quarter will deteriorate, and the same percentage also perceived economic activity in 2015 Q2 will
12%
Will deteriorate a lot
44% of respondents thought the
remain the same when compared to 2015
41%
Will deteriorate somewhat
Q1.
34%
Will not change 12%
Will improve somewhat
13. How, do you think, unemployment will change in the next six months?
1%
Will improve a lot 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100% 14%
Will increase a lot
Net balance (%):
-41%
Confidence: LOW
24%
Will not change
Expectations on economic performance in 2015 Q1 were LOW.
37%
Will increase somewhat
Notwithstanding the
18%
Will decrease somewhat 6%
Will decrease a lot 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
seasonal element, 53% of consumers thought
Net balance (%):
the economy deteriorated in the first quarter of 2015 when compared to the last quarter of 2014. Only 13% thought it would improve which points to a perception of a lack of momentum in current economic activity. 7. How do you expect the economic situation in Barbados to change in the next 3 months?
10%
in the economy as more than 50% expect the unemployment to increase over the next 6 months. Overall confidence for this indicator
term. 20%
labour
market
results
appear
on the overall economic situation in the short
12% 0% 0%
their expectations for employment prospects
consistent with the forward looking sentiment
44%
Will not change
Will improve a lot
Respondents were also not very positive with
These
35%
Will deteriorate somewhat
Will improve somewhat
Confidence: LOW
is LOW.
9%
Will deteriorate a lot
-27%
30%
40%
Net balance (%):
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
-33%
Confidence: LOW
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Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Prices Expectations An overwhelming majority of respondents
8. How has your average living cost changed in the current quarter compared to a quarter earlier?
(70%) indicated that on average, their cost of living increased when compared to a
5%
Increased extremely
quarter earlier. The net balance statistic for
24%
Increased significantly
this indicator is LOW on the confidence range
40%
Increased somewhat
at -58%.
19%
Unchanged 12%
Decreased 0%
10%
20%
40%
30%
50%
60%
Net balance (%):
70%
80%
90%
100%
When asked to compare with the same quarter one year earlier (2014 Q1), 76% reported an increase in their average cost of
-58%
living. As a result, the estimated confidence
Confidence: LOW
level for this indicator is VERY LOW at -62%.
9. How has your average living cost changed in the current quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier?
The overall price pressure on individuals and household appear quite evident from these
11%
Increased extremely
results. 30%
Increased significantly
Of those that indicated that their average
35%
Increased somewhat
cost of living increased significantly or
10%
Unchanged
extremely, 81% earn annual incomes of less
14%
Decreased 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Net balance (%):
70%
80%
90%
100%
reportedly experienced the greatest impact
-62%
of price increase over the past year.
Confidence: VERY LOW
Looking ahead consumer price expectations
10. How do you think prices will change in the next quarter?
are not much brighter as some 82% expect prices to increase in the next quarter. A ray
17%
Will increase at faster rates
of sunshine is that more persons (22%) expect
43%
Will increase at the same rates
prices to increase at a lower rate than at a
22%
Will increase at lower rates
faster
15%
Will not change
0%
10%
rate
(17%) in
the
next
quarter.
Therefore the confidence metric for this
3%
Will decrease somewhat
than $75,000. Those earning $25,000-$49,000
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Net balance (%):
80%
90%
-80%
100%
indicator is rated VERY LOW at -80% as only 3% of respondents expect prices to decrease.
Confidence: VERY LOW
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Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Looking
11. How do you think prices will change in the next year?
However, more persons (28%) expect prices
5%
to increases at a faster rate than at a lower
4%
Will decrease somewhat 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Net balance (%):
90%
100%
-88%
Confidence: VERY LOW
by more than 4% in the next year.
50% 20%
Of the 51% of consumers who expect
1%
unemployment to increase over the next 6
4%
will fall 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Net balance (%):
90%
100%
financial situation to worsen over the next 6 months. The conclusion is that consumers by a margin
14%
of 2:1 expect inflation to be at least the same
37%
Will increase somewhat 24%
Will not change
level over the next 12 months which if
18%
Will decrease somewhat
realized and with no significant changes in
6% 0%
10%
20%
In addition, though employment prospects these respondents expect their household
13. How, do you think, unemployment will change in the next six months? Will increase a lot
months, 30% earn less than $50,000 annually. do not appear especially bright, only 16% of
-72%
Confidence: VERY LOW
Will decrease a lot
When asked to quantify prices changes, half
quarter of respondents expect prices to rise
will rise 2 - 4% will rise 0 - 2%
increase at the same rates.
between 2-4% over the next year. One
25%
will rise more than 4%
rate (25%) whilst 39% expect prices to
of respondents expect inflation to rise by
12. How much, do you think, prices will change in the next year?
will not change
prices
prices to increase over the coming year.
25%
Will not change
year,
months ahead. 92% of respondent expect
39%
Will increase at the same rates Will increase at lower rates
one
expectations are also very similar to the 3
28%
Will increase at faster rates
ahead
30%
40%
50%
60%
Net balance (%):
70%
80%
-27%
90%
100%
incomes or employment prospects could likely result in financial distress on more individuals and households.
Confidence: LOW
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Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
There were 307 responses to these questions
Expenditure and Savings 14. Do you think now is the best time to make large purchases (such as furniture items, household appliances)?
related to expenditure and savings with consumer attitudes appearing to be mixed this quarter.
No, it is not a good time. Such purchases should be left for later
63%
Nearly two-thirds of respondents thought that now was not a good time to make large
34%
Time does not matter for making such purchases
purchases. As to be expected of this 63%,
4%
Yes, now is the best time to make such purchases
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Net balance (%):
48% earning less than $75,000 annually. These sentiments generally reflect the price expectations
-59%
as
well
as
employment
prospects in the economy at the moment.
Confidence: LOW
As a result, the level of confidence for this 15. Compared to the past quarter, for large purchases (such as furniture items, household appliances), in the current quarter you have spent:
indicator was quite LOW at 59%. With regard to actual expenditure it appears
33%
A lot less
purchases of consumer durables and the like
21%
Less
have been a lot less at both time period
28%
More or less the same
examined. Compared to the 2014 Q4, 54%
13%
Somewhat more
bought less of these items which is almost
5%
A lot more 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Net balance (%):
80%
90%
100%
which was 53%. This is an indication of the
-36%
softness in economic activity and consistent
Confidence: LOW
with the prices expectations and other economic indicators. Both of these metrics
16. Compared to the same quarter last year, for large purchases (such as furniture items, household appliances), in the current quarter you have spent:
also
23%
Less
0%
10%
LOW
on
the
not taken root as these are key indicators of
6%
A lot more
being
particular shows that economic recovery has
12%
Somewhat more
as
The relative closeness of these two metrics in
29%
More or less the same
measure
confidence range.
30%
A lot less
identical to the level bought in 2014 Q1
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Net balance (%):
70%
80%
90%
-34%
100%
consumer confidence which are precursors for economic growth.
Confidence: LOW
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Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Expenditure and Savings
Despite the circumstances surrounding the financial
17. Taking into account the overall economic situation, do you think now is:
households situation,
14%
A very unfavourable time to save
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Net balance (%):
70%
80%
90% 100%
surprising
given
the
second quarter of 2015. This announcement made in early April did not appear to significantly influence the perception for
35%
Not sure
savings.
26%
On saving in the next quarter, consumer
3% 0%
somewhat
savings would be liberalized during the
25%
Highly possible
is
Barbados that the minimum deposit rate on
12%
Possible
of
announcement of the Central Bank of
18. Do you think that, in the next quarter, saving would be:
Impossible
(63%)
MODERATE and the highest for this survey. This
+33%
Confidence: MODERATE
Totally impossible
two-thirds
economic
The confidence rating on this metric was
32%
A very good time to save 10%
overall
and
sentiments regarding saving.
31%
A good time to save
0%
nearly
the
individuals
to save. 30% didn’t share such positive
7%
Not sure
and
of
respondents thought NOW was a good time
16%
An unfavourable time to save
situation
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Net balance (%):
80%
90%
100%
-8%
Confidence: NEGATIVELY BALANCED 19. Which of the following sentences describes most accurately the actual financial situation of your household?
To cope with expenditures, we are also using our savings
We are saving a lot
rating
was
NEGATIVELY
BALANCED for this indicator. When asked to describe their current actual
quite good given their low perception of
16%
economic activity. Not surprisingly, of the 43%
2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Net balance (%):
-25%
either borrowing or using savings to cover expenses 25% earn less than $50,000 annually.
Confidence: LOW
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overall
without utilizing savings or borrowings. This is
39%
We are saving a little
the
(57%) are able to cover their expenses
31%
We cover expenses only through our income
current financial situation of households as
financial situation, a majority of households
12%
We are borrowing to cover recurring living expenses
sentiment in this regard more reflected
Page 10 of 13
Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Feedback The following is a selection of comments provided by respondents on general issues affecting households in Barbados.
A lack of knowledge on how to better manage their finances and not be duped by predators in society who use psychology techniques and marketing strategies to take advantage.
It is impossible to eat a balanced and healthy diet not only because of the cost but the availability
and
supermarkets.
quality
of
food
in
the
Utility costs in respect of BWA
have increased 300%+ since introduction of the digital meters. Taxes have been increased with
Increased taxation on consumers and increased duties and taxes on goods, while disposable
the Solid Waste tax. Insurance costs for property are prohibitively high.
income either has plateaued or declined. The economic situation is too uncertain in many cases for any real growth or development in households. The cost of food continues to rise.
Job losses. High food, gas prices. Lack of money
Saving and investment has become increasingly
that is needed, to pay for the supply of vital items
difficult.
needed for medical services at the Hospital. Increased & added taxes.
The high cost of goods and services. I cannot
The BWA rates are hurting households plus some
see a sliver of an opportunity to save. Even fresh
households only have one working person cost
fruits and vegetables are expensive!
of food keeps rising although the price of fuel has gone down the only ease we as consumers got is from light and power but no one is saying
The increasing NCD's impact on the health care/medication and its cost on tax payers. There need to be more alternatives available in the food/manufacturing sector. The level of taxation is having a significant impact on households. What is ironic is the decrease in fuel prices but not in consumer goods, in most cases there have been increases.
thanks to them and because things are bad a lot of inferior things are being sold in supermarket and people are buying because there can do no better they have to feed they family
The drive for growth in business is fueled by achieving more profit at the expense of value. People are influenced to buy new products and discard old ones with faults that could be fixed or with no faults at all. We are also influenced to live beyond our means.
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Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
Economic Analysis In this section, we offer some limited economic insights from the survey responses to put the results in context. Recall from the methodology section that robust economic growth is usually accompanied by confidence level ranging from moderate to high as shown below. F IGURE 2: CONSUMER C ONFIDENCE R ANGE Very low -100 -60
Low
Balanced -20
Moderate +20 +60
High +100
Our preliminary analysis of the 2015 Q1 results shows that overall consumer sentiment in Barbados is LOW having been estimated at -35% on the confidence range. The financial situation of households is negatively balanced at -16% with forward looking expectations (+4% on average) significantly brighter than the current expectations (-46% on average). The overall economic situation as perceived by respondents is LOW with -37% as the confidence rating. The cost of living metrics were collectively the lowest in the survey with 4 out of 6 indicators ranking as VERY LOW, thereby resulting in an overall confidence ranking of -65%. Pricing pressures are a significant driver of consumer confidence and with very low sentiment prevailing in the market consumption is likely to be dampened further in the near term. This is backed up by the sentiment regarding large purchases as consumers have indicated LOW confidence in expenditures on large purchases over the last year and further 63% didn’t think now was the best time for these purchases. The outlook for savings is mixed as 63% thought now was a good time to save but only 29% thought it was actually possible to save in the next quarter. Conversely, 37% didn’t think it was at all possible to save in the next quarter. The overall sentiment for expenditure and savings was therefore estimated at -22% (LOW) during the first quarter of 2015. Though these are the first results of the survey, they point to households and consumer confidence that don’t appear to have the capacity to support robust economic activity at this time. We are cautious about their overall interpretation since this is just a snapshot and we will need more data with which to form a more in depth view on consumer sentiment. International research has consistent shown a direct link between consumer sentiment and economic growth. On that basis and putting these results in context, something will have to drastically change in a positive way in both the perception and reality of households that will help create and support the conditions for economic growth. If these results hold for the
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Page 12 of 13
Consumer Sentiment 2015 Q1 - Barbados
foreseeable future with respect to the sentiment of consumers then the Barbados economy will not likely experience significant growth unless externally driven by foreign direct investment. Based on these results, local businesses that rely on the domestic market for most of their activity will also likely experience low confidence due to the prevailing low consumer confidence. Savings represent future consumption and though this sentiment appears brighter than spending, the mechanics and motivation to save may be compromised due to the liberalization of interest rates of deposits in addition to low expectations regarding cost of living of households.
Acknowledgements We would like to thank the management and staff of Barbados Today for providing support in executing the survey. Special thanks to Editor in Chief, Ms. Kaymar Jordan for spearheading efforts to raise awareness and advocacy on behalf of consumers in Barbados by leading this initiative. We would also like to thank Mr. Ian Walcott, Partner Consultant at Global Expert Systems for his invaluable feedback and technical assistance in the design and deployment design of the survey. A very special thank you to all those that participated in completing the survey. We look forward to your continued support.
Legal Disclaimer This report provides information designed to help users cope with their own business, financial, legal and other needs. This information is not the same as retaining experts in those fields for advice. Although we go to great lengths to ensure the information is accurate, we strongly recommend you consult an expert, including but not limited to an economist, accountant, financial services consultant, lawyer or other professional as appropriate. Nothing contained in this report is to be considered as the rendering of financial, professional, legal or other advice for specific cases, and users are responsible for obtaining such advice from their own financial, legal or other counsel.
The information contained in this report is intended for educational, background and
informational purposes only.
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