Circana Insight

Grow with the flow

Melissa has some encouraging data to share this month, as she looks at the trends and themes that are boosting sales across the toy market.

For the last four years, licensed toys have been out-performing non-licensed toys in the UK and across Europe, currently up +1% in value this year while non-licensed toys have declined -5%. YTD August 2024, licensed toys account for 33% of all toys sold, up from 27% in the same period in 2021. While historically many licences in toys come from key theatrical releases and streaming or TV shows, there has been a blurring of the lines between these sources over the last few years as many character driven properties are chasing a “360-always on” presence in consumers’ lives, with video games, shows, online shorts and other media all expanding character awareness.

While licensed product continues to be a key metric for the toy market, there are different ways of splitting the data which can provide new insights into what types of items or themes consumers are attracted to and purchasing within the market. The biggest theme is Transportation, with 11.6% of all toy sales going to a transport item; the strongest products within this category are Hot Wheels, Lego Technic, Monster Jam and Lego Speed Champions. This is a classic theme which has had a steady 11-12% share of the market over the last five years.

Demonstrating the UK consumer fondness for their pets and animals generally, the second largest theme in the market is Other Animals, which is also the fastest growing theme so far this year, adding over £16m in sales up to August. While generic animal products account for 30% of Other Animals, there has been growth with animal items within VTech Baby and Fisher-Price as well as with plush, where lines such as Snackles and Adopt Me! have shown growth this year. Interactive pets have also helped this theme with the original Bitzee and some Robo Alive lines adding to sales in the first eight months. Other Animal Characters has also grown over £4m this year with Lilo & Stitch performing particularly strongly, as well as Sonic the Hedgehog showing growth over 71% YTD. Both licences have films coming out that should continue to drive performance for the remainder of the year and into 2025. Elsewhere, other strong performing Animal Characters include Paddington Bear and Beatrix Potter/Peter Rabbit, as well as Lion King.

After Other Animals, the third fastest growing theme is Pro Sports Leagues where the Euro Champions Football Tournament over the summer has helped increase sales, especially through collectible cards and stickers. National Football League has also performed well this year, in addition to motor sports with growth from Formula 1 and NASCAR. Another of the fastest growing themes in the UK is Fantasy Creatures & Characters, which  has a wide range of items and properties and added £5m additional sales this year. The top properties are Magic Mixies, Monster High and Furby, which are all in growth this year. This theme also includes the Trolls, Ghostbusters and Stranger Things licences, as these content-driven properties expand toy offerings. In particular, the Monster High Wednesday Doll and Nightmare Before Xmas ranges have been picking up sales in the last couple of months as we head towards Halloween – potentially a growing occasion opportunity for the UK toy market.

Manga/Anime has overtaken both Space and Superheroes themes in size and now accounts for 4.8% of all UK toy sales. Manga has seen strong performance this year from One Piece, Dragon Ball Z, Dragon Slayer and Jujutsu Kaisen. The relaunch of Beyblades is also starting to add sales to the theme. The Space theme tends to be dominated by Star Wars, which has grown this year, but it has also seen growth from Lego City with its space theme for 2024, as well as Dune following the movie release at the end of 2023. Superhero themed toys have declined this year with a significant reduction in film releases, but Deadpool related items started picking up in August with the release of the Deadpool & Wolverine movie.

By looking at themes within the toy market rather than just individual licences or categories, it’s interesting to see which areas are gaining in popularity, whether through content or new product. This year animal nurturing, sports and fantasy creatures are appealing to consumers of all ages. What impact these themes will make over the important Q4 period remains to be seen, but new launches within these themes makes it extremely likely their popularity will continue to the end of the year.

Item Progression:

Following the release of the live action How To Train Your Dragon movie early in June, the property has jumped up the rankings. HTTYD Viking and Dragon Figure Assortment is the No. 1 item in Action Figures and accessories for the month while, overall, Action Figures accounts for two thirds of the property’s sales. Plush is the second largest category, accounting for 30% of HTTYD sales.

Price points across total toys

The Average Selling Price (ASP) for Toys in the first half of 2025 was £11.14, up +7% versus 2024. This ASP varies by supercategory with Building Sets currently having the highest ASP at £22.30 and Explorative & Other Toys at £5.47. All price points are currently in growth in 2025. The largest price point is £10-£19.99 which accounts for 30% of all sales and growing +7%. The largest supercategories for this price point are Infant/Toddler & Preschool Toys and Building Sets. However, the largest properties at this price point are Pokémon, Funko Pop and Minecraft, all showing strong growth. In addition, there is also growth coming from Lego Botanicals, Sonic the Hedgehog and Lilo & Stitch.

The fastest growing price point is £50-£99, which accounts for 9% of sales and is up an impressive 22%. This price point has seen strong growth in Building Sets, which accounts for 37% of this price point. Lego Fortnite, Lego Star Wars and Lego Icons are strong growth properties, as well as Pokémon and TonieBox. £20-£49.99 price point accounts for just over a quarter of all sales and is growing +13% with Pokémon demonstrating its growth across all price point and growing again. However, Lego Botanicals and Lego Speed Champions are also showing double-digit growth here, as is Harry Potter.

The sub-£5 price point also accounts for 9% of value sales but represents a massive 37% of volume sales. The largest supercategories are Explorative & Other Toys and Outdoor and Sports Toys. However, the largest properties are driven by collectibles with Pokémon, Hot Wheels and Lego Minifgures all top properties and growing. The £5-£9.99 price point is the slowest growing, up just +1%. However, Action Figures & Accessories has grown +41% at this price point and Youth Electronics +44%, with property growth from Ty and Play Doh.