ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX (PHI) - 2013 Q2
TABLE OF CONTENTS Quarterly Index ...................................... 1 Sales by Price per Square Foot ............. 2 Sales Volume by Price Range ............... 3 Statistics by District.................................. 4 Quarterly Index by Subregion ............... 5 Major Markets Comparison ................ 6-7 Background and Notes.......................... 8 Price per Square Foot Low
High
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ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q2 QUARTERLY INDEX
Index Number of Sales Median Sale Price Quarterly Change
160.6 3,736 $125,000 +5.3%
Philadelphia and Comparative House Price Indices 2003 – 2013 Q2 (2003 = 100) 210
190
170
150
130
110
90
2003
2004
2005
Philadelphia
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Philadelphia Metro Area
2012
2013
National Average
Index Percent Change, 2008 -2013 Q2 10%
Once again, Philadelphia is showing a strong spring housing market. Quality-adjusted prices of singlefamily houses in Philadelphia increased by an average of 5.3 percent this quarter and are up 1.8 percent from a year ago. On average, the past four years have shown strong second quarter growth, and this year is no exception. Overall, there were 3,736 arms-length sales of single family homes this quarter, which is up 28 percent from the previous quarter, and 25 percent from the same quarter a year ago.
2011
5% 0% -5% -10%
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q2 SALES BY PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
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Each dot on the map represents one sale. The color indicates the price per square foot, following the classification shown on the chart below.
Count of Sales by Price per Square Foot $25 or Less
514
$26 to $50
438 1029
$51 to $100
830
$101 to $150
Median price per square foot was $95. There were 477 sales in the most expensive category with prices over $200 per square foot, and 514 in the least expensive category of $25 per square foot or less.
$150 to $200 More than $200
426 477
Median Price Per Square Foot Number of Sales
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
$95 3,736
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q2 SALES VOLUME BY PRICE RANGE Volume of Sales by Price Range Price Range
2013 Q2
$25,000 or less
391
$25,001 - $50,000
422
$50,001 - $100,000
719
$100,001 - $150,000
697
$150,001 - $200,000
529
$200,001 - $300,000
498
$300,001 - $500,000
327
$500,001 - $750,000
103
$750,001 - $999,999
26
$1,000,000 or More
24
Total
3,736
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Volume of home sales was up significantly this quarter (to 3,736 from 2,928 last quarter), and is at the fastest pace in three years. The number of home sales with values of more than $1 million was also higher this quarter than the last quarter (24 compared to 20). The median sale price of $125,000 represents a 11.1 percent increase over the previous quarter, and is up 4.2 percent over the same quarter one year ago. Unlike the index value, the median price is not quality or seasonally adjusted. Median Sales Price (thousands) $150 $125 $100 $75 $50
$125 2003
2006
2009
2012
9,000
40
8,000
35
7,000
30
6,000
25
5,000
20
4,000
15
3,000 2,000
10
1,000
5
0
2003
2006
Total Sales
2009
2012
Total Sales $1 Million or More
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
0
Sales $1 Million or More
Total Sales
Total Sales Volume and Volume of Sales Greater than $1 Million
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q2 STATISTICS BY DISTRICT
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Index
Sales
Median Sale Price
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
1 Upper Far Northeast
127.6
126
$221,500
0.5%
-0.9%
2 Lower Far Northeast
147.2
157
$175,000
1.0%
-2.6%
3 Central Northeast
133.9
175
$149,000
-0.5%
-1.1%
4 North Delaware
114.0
356
$108,550
-0.1%
-7.0%
5 Upper Northwest
156.2
209
$160,000
3.6%
3.0%
6 Upper North
162.2
247
$77,500
1.6%
-7.7%
7 Lower Northeast
126.7
223
$70,000
-0.3%
-4.0%
8 Lower Northwest
150.3
194
$213,550
0.6%
3.0%
9 North
127.5
207
$27,000
-0.2%
-6.5%
10 River Wards
208.3
287
$99,900
0.1%
6.5%
11 West Park
180.5
67
$100,000
-2.6%
5.0%
12 Lower North
205.9
167
$68,000
3.6%
25.2%
93.2
225
$35,000
-1.8%
0.0%
14 University*
222.6
56
$248,000
0.7%
3.8%
15 Central
152.6
337
$409,900
3.1%
6.0%
16 Lower Southwest
157.7
70
$35,750
-4.2%
-2.7%
17 Combined South*
250.1
633
$142,000
3.7%
13.0%
X Citywide
160.6
3,736
$125,000
5.3%
1.8%
District
13 West/Southwest*
*Districts are identical to Philadelphia City Planning Districts except where noted with an asterisk. See Definitions and Notes on page 8 for details.
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q2 QUARTERLY INDEX BY SUBREGION
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Subregion House Price Indices 2000 – 2013 Q2 (2003 = 100) 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Far Northeast
Northeast
North
Northwest
Lower North/River
Central/University
West/Southwest
South
2013
Analysis at the District level provides a refined view of housing market trends. Here, these trends are aggregated into Subregions to summarize broader market trends. House prices in the South Subregion continued their positive trend, growing 3.7 percent this quarter and 13.0 percent for the year. The Central/University Subregion also grew quickly, up 3.2 percent this quarter. Overall, all Subregions experienced positive quarterly growth except the Northeast and West/South.
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
Color of Subregion on chart corresponds to color of Subregions on map.
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q2 PHILADELPHIA VS. CASE-SHILLER INDEX
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PHI v Case-Shiller 10 City Indices: 2003 - 2013 2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Boston
Chicago
Denver
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Miami
New York
San Diego
San Francisco
Washington, DC
Philadelphia
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Mar-11
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-10
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-09
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-08
Nov-07
Jul-07
Mar-07
Nov-06
Jul-06
Mar-06
Nov-05
Jul-05
Mar-05
Nov-04
Jul-04
Mar-04
Nov-03
Jul-03
Mar-03
0.0
To put the Philadelphia housing market in a wider context, we can compare it to the 10 cities in the Case-Shiller 10-city house price index. These comparison cities are Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, LA, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington. We compare using 2003 as the base year, and, separately, using 2009 (see following page). The graph from 2003 to today shows that Philadelphia weathered the housing bubble better than all of the other cities. This outcome in part likely reflects the Philadelphia index applying only to the city, whereas the Case-Shiller indexes apply to wider metro areas. This pattern reflects the relatively better performance of urban areas relative to outer suburban rings of cities.
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q2 PHILADELPHIA VS. CASE-SHILLER INDEX
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PHI v Case-Shiller 10 City Indices: 2009 - 2013 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
Boston
Chicago
Denver
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Miami
New York
San Diego
San Francisco
Washington, DC
Philadelphia
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
0.6
However, when looking at the recovery period Philadelphia's performance doesn’t appear as strong. Overall, from March 2009 to March 2013, the ten Case-Shiller cities are up 7.8 percent, while Philadelphia is down 6.2%. San Francisco had the strongest performance, increasing 30 percent, and Chicago had the worst in decreasing 9 percent. This pattern reflects how strongly Philadelphia performed relative to the other cities from 2003 to 2009. Other cities had fallen farther, and had a deeper hole to climb from.
Sources: Case-Shiller (2013), Econsult Solutions (2013) Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q2 BACKGROUND AND NOTES
Background and Contact Econsult Solutions, Inc. (ESI) provides the Philadelphia Housing Index (PHI) free of charge to the public. Thanks to Azavea and the Office of Property Assessment for providing some of the data used in our analysis. Sales are arms-length transactions of single-family homes only. The price indexes are estimated by Econsult Solutions, Inc. using a quality controlled measure of average sale appreciation using hedonic regression analysis. Questions and press inquiries should be directed to Econsult Solutions, Inc. President Richard P. Voith at Voith@EconsultSolutions.com
Notes Cover: Map displays interpolated (inverse-distance weighted) cost surface based on price per square foot of sales. Lower values of price per square foot are deep blue; higher values are red; yellow and green shades are in the middle. The image is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not represent predictions of home values. Page 1: National and Philadelphia Metro Indexes are from the Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Only Series from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Philadelphia Metro refers to the Pennsylvania Division of the Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes the Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties. Page 4: Econsult Solutions, Inc. Districts are identical to those used by the Philadelphia City Planning Commission (PCPC) except: PCPC’s “Lower South” is included in “South”; University City is carved out from PCPC’s “University/SouthWest”, and the remaining Southwest is combined with West to form “West/Southwest”. Pages 4 and 5: District and Subregion indexes are smoothed to reduce volatility and capture underlying market trends. The smoothing means that overall district and subregion prices tend to reflect overall citywide price changes with a slight lag. Page 5: For ease of presentation, Districts are further aggregated into “Subregions,” as shown on the map. Page 6 & 7: 10 City Indices courtesy of Case-Shiller
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
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