AMERICAN
POWER
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then takes on what it is sure will be another simple battle, this one against Saddam Hussein's isolated regime in Iraq. The result: a quick initial military victory followed by a long, ardu ous struggle, filled with political and military blunders and met with intense international opposition. The analogy is obvious; the United States is Britain, the Iraq War is the Boer War— and, by extension, America's future looks bleak. Whatever the outcome in Iraq, the costs have been massive. The United States has been overextended and distracted,
its army
stressed, its image sullied. Rogue states like Iran
and
Venezuela and great powers like Russia and China are taking advantage of Washington's inattention and bad fortunes. The familiar theme of imperial decline is playing itself out one more time. History is happening again. But whatever the apparent similarities, the circumstances are not really the same. Britain was a strange superpower. His torians have written hundreds of books explaining how London could have adopted certain foreign policies to change its for tunes. If only it had avoided the Boer War, say some. If only it had stayed out of Africa, say others. Niall Ferguson provoca tively suggests that, had Britain stayed out of World War I (and there might not have been a world war without British partici pation), it might have managed to preserve its great-power position. There is some truth to this line of reasoning (World War I did bankrupt Britain), but to put things properly in his torical context, it is worth looking at this history from another angle. Britain's immense empire was the product of unique cir cumstances. The wonder is not that Britain declined, but that 5
its dominance lasted as long as it did. Understanding how Britain played its hand—one that got weaker over time—might help illuminate America's path forward.