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SA Intelligencer Number 73

31 March 2010 Initiator: Johan Mostert Editor: Dalene Duvenage Contributions and enquiries dalene@4knowledge.co.za

Reports from 18-30 March 2010 Africa: 1 SA: New IGI named America 1. CIA’s foreign ,language efforts 2. Rift raises questions on Obama intel czar’s future 3. Senate bill proposes closer links between US spies, private sector 4. US must stop spying on WIkiLeaks 5. US Intelligence planned to destroy Wikileaks 5. Wikileaks: CIA document on mustering support for Afghanistan effort 5. Dismantling of Saudi-CIA Web site illustrates need for clearer cyberwar policies Australia & New Zealand 7. ASIO sinking under asylum-seeker workload 8. ASIO spooks spied on little girls 8. NZ: External spies turn focus on home front Europe 9. Germany: MP’s staffer spied for intelligence agency 10. UK: IT-illiterate MI5 staff face redundancy People 10. US: Obama starting over, again, in search for TSA chief Terrorism 11. How a Yemeni terrorist slipped through the cracks 12. Nuclear terrorism remains intelligence priority ahead of nuclear summit Noteworthy 13. Assessing “Homegrown” extremism in the United States 14. National Drug Threat Assessment 2010 14. The Joint Operating Environment 2010 14. Trends in electoral violence in SubSahara Africa 14. Intelligence community seeks to measure trustworthiness 15. LeT: the fallacy of subservient proxies and the future of Islamist terrorism in India Books Events

Books

Africa SA: New Inspector-General for Intelligence named IOL, 25 March 2010 Acting President Kgalema Motlanthe has appointed advocate Faith Doreen Radebe as the Inspector-General of Intelligence, the presidency announced on Thursday. Her nomination was approved by Parliament on February 17, 2010. Radebe, who is currently South Africa's High Commissioner to all Caribbean community countries, will assume her duties on April 1. Her previous experience includes being special legal advisor on conditions of service for the Intelligence Service Council and a senior manager in the Office of the Coordinator for Intelligence (NICOC) in 2003 and 2000 respectively. She also held positions in the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) between 1998 and 1999. http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=nw201 00325100758666C825469

America CIA’s Foreign Language Efforts March 17, 2010 In a ceremony held last week at CIA Headquarters, Director Leon E. Panetta presented the Foreign Language Excellence Award to an undercover officer whose superior foreign language skills contributed significantly to the Agency’s intelligence mission over the past year. Her proficiency led directly to the recruiting of assets from a country of priority interest to the United States. Ten Agency officers from across the CIA’s four directorates were nominated for the annual award. Seven of the ten joined the Agency between 2003 and 2005. As a group, they speak eight mission-critical languages, such as Arabic, Chinese, Dari, Farsi, Korean, and Pushto. Some are native speakers while others earned their proficiency in college or after joining the CIA.In 2009, Director Panetta launched a five-year initiative to double the number of analysts and collectors with foreign language proficiency and to transform the Agency’s language training. In January, Director Panetta made foreign language aptitude a stricter requirement for promotion to the Senior Intelligence Service.


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Employees who use their language skills in Last year, the number of CIA officers capable in their jobs may qualify for even higher foreign languages rose nine percent. “The key incentives. In addition, those who are able to is to keep that momentum going,” said improve their language test scores may qualify Director Panetta. “The more officers we have for language achievement awards. who can speak the languages of our foreign partners, our agents, and our adversaries, the Mission-Critical Languages more likely we are to acquire the information In May 2009 Director Panetta announced a we need. It’s that simple.” new plan to build the multilingual workforce Language Hiring Bonus Program that the CIA needs. Within five years the Agency aims to double the number of Are you fluent in a foreign language? The CIA employees who are proficient in languages, might have a job for you. The Language Hiring with a special focus on those that are mission Bonus Program rewards new employees with critical. The mission-critical languages include: superior language skills who have been hired into designated occupations. New employees • Arabic can qualify for a hiring bonus in more than one • Dari language, but the maximum amount is $35,000 • Chinese per individual. Bonuses are paid in a one-time, • Indonesian lump sum payment. • Kurdish Language Incentive Payments • Korean CIA values its employees with superior • Pushto (Pashtu) language skills and encourages them to • Persian (Farsi) maintain and use their proficiency in support of • Russian CIA’s mission. The Language Incentive • Turkish Payments reward Agency employees who test • Urdu at the required proficiency in one or more of the almost 100 languages CIA needs. https://www.cia.gov/news-information/press-releases-statements/press-release-2010/directorpanetta-presents-foreign-language-excellence-award.html and https://www.cia.gov/news-information/featured-story-archive/2010-featured-story-archive/ciavalues-language-capabilities.html

Rift raises questions on Obama intel czar's future Reuters, Friday, March 26, 2010 (Excerpts - ed) A senior intelligence official with ties to the DNI said the storm has passed and voiced WASHINGTON - A power struggle within the confidence Blair would remain in the post for U.S. intelligence community has strained the foreseeable future. relations and raised questions about the role and future of Director of National "So much of this has been resolved," Intelligence Dennis Blair, U.S. the intelligence official said. "It's a officials said. working, professional relationship. They talk almost daily. Although Infighting between U.S. intelligence there are some differences of views, agencies is nothing new, but Blair's behind-the-scenes tug-of-war with there is a lot of congeniality and DNI Dennis Blair CIA Director Leon Panetta has fueled common interest." doubts for some within the administration But other officials said problems remain and about the Director of National Intelligence's Blair may leave by year-end or sooner. One (DNI) oversight. "Something has to give," one former White House official close to the source said. discussions said there was "frustration" and "a


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ton of tension" that could lead to Blair's action. The DNI has "policy oversight" but no departure, provided Obama finds a veto power over operations, officials said. replacement. Under the ruling, if a covert operation is Asked if the tensions raised doubts about deemed an emergency, the CIA would work Blair's tenure, White House deputy national directly to the president and notify the DNI security adviser Ben Rhodes said: "The concurrently. president very much appreciates the work of The White House also strengthened the CIA's Admiral Blair and the entire intelligence hand at U.S. missions overseas. community, which he relies on every day." Already empowered to choose the station Arthur House, director of communications with chief, the White House ruled that the CIA's pick the office of the DNI, said: "Director Blair has would concurrently serve as the DNI's every intention of serving for the full four year representative in country, rebuffing attempts term at the will of the president." by other agencies and Blair to open the field Blair's often blunt style is seen as a source of for the slot. candor on Capitol Hill, aides say, but it has Many current and former intelligence officials irked some in a White House that prizes trace tensions back to 2004, when legislation staying on message. overhauling the intelligence system created The DNI serves as the head of the intelligence the DNI without clearly delineating all of the community, but his control of the CIA and its new office's powers. operation is limited. "My guess is that to the extent to which there Within the bureaucracy, Blair faced an uphill are personality issues, it's a consequence of battle from the start. Panetta, an exthe structural issue," he said. "Both Denny Blair congressman, is considered a Democratic and Leon Panetta are first class professionals eminence grise. As a former White House chief who have worked extraordinarily successfully of staff and chairman of key congressional in a whole variety of other challenging committee, he has extensive ties within the bureaucratic settings." administration and Congress. Rothkopf, author of "Running the World," a Blair has operated largely out of the public eye, book on the NSC, said he has the "utmost especially since the failed attempt by an respect" for Blair, but if he were to leave, Islamic militant to blow up a U.S. passenger jet Obama should consider eliminating the DNI as it approached Detroit on December 25, office and empowering the CIA director to observers say. what it was created to do. In a classified order issued in December, the The 1947 law that created the CIA gave its White House National Security Council director broad reach to oversee and reaffirmed the CIA's leadership role in covert coordinate intelligence gathering. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/26/AR2010032603931_pf.html

Senate bill proposes closer links between US spies, private sector March 18, 2010 ¡ intelNews.org A bipartisan bill, unveiled yesterday in the US Senate, proposes closer links between US intelligence agencies and private sector companies active in areas of “critical infrastructureâ€?. Drafted and proposed by Republican senator Olympia Snowe and Democrat Jay Rockefeller, the legislation builds on concerns by government officials that US

Editor: Dalene Duvenage

energy and telecommunications systems may not be able to sustain a concentrated cyberattack by a foreign government agency or organized cybercriminal group. The major practical problem in terms of the government protecting these systems is that most have been deregulated since the Reagan era, and are now almost entirely under the control of

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private corporations. According to the bill, the be expected to continue. There are serious US government would have to define the term issues to be addressed, however, in the latest “critical infrastructure”, and then designate Senate bill, such as the criteria on which the companies in control of such infrastructure security clearances will be awarded to networks as “critical partners” in protecting corporate executives, who often work for strategic national interests. Government spy corporations with multi-national branches; or agencies would then try to prevent potential how much government intelligence would be cyber-attacks by sharing relevant intelligence communicated to them in case of a pending with “top-level private sector official[s] with danger. The bill’s advocates say that the security clearance[s]”. As I noted last month, in company “would be provided with ‘enough’ connection with Google’s unprecedented information to defend or mitigate the attack”, collaboration with the US National Security but what exactly does this mean, and who Agency, closer ties between US spy agencies decides what “enough information” looks like? and the corporate sector is a trend that should http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/03/18/01-413/

U.S. must stop spying on WikiLeaks Fri Mar 26 2010 Over the last few years, WikiLeaks has been the subject of hostile acts by security organizations. In the developing world, these range from the appalling assassination of two related human rights lawyers in Nairobi last March (an armed attack on my compound there in 2007 is still unattributed) to an unsuccessful mass attack by Chinese computers on our servers in Stockholm, after we published photos of murders in Tibet. In the West this has ranged from the overt, the head of Germany's foreign intelligence service, the BND, threatening to prosecute us unless we removed a report on CIA activity in Kosovo, to the covert, to an ambush by a "James Bond" character in a Luxembourg car park, an event that ended with a mere "we think it would be in your interest to...". Developing world violence aside, we've become used to the level of security service interest in us and have established procedures to ignore that interest. But the increase in surveillance activities this last month, in a time when we are barely publishing due to fundraising, are excessive. Some of the new interest is related to a film exposing a U.S. massacre we will release at the U.S. National Press Club on April 5.

The spying includes attempted covert following, photographing, filming and the overt detention & questioning of a WikiLeaks' volunteer in Iceland on Monday night. I, and others were in Iceland to advise Icelandic parliamentarians on the Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, a new package of laws designed to protect investigative journalists and internet services from spying and censorship. As such, the spying has an extra poignancy. The possible triggers: • our ongoing work on a classified film revealing civilian casualties occurring under the command of the U.S, general, David Petraeus. • our release of a classified 32 page US intelligence report on how to fatally marginalize WikiLeaks (expose our sources, destroy our reputation for integrity, hack us). • our release of a classified cable from the U.S. Embassy in Reykjavik reporting on contact between the U.S. and the U.K. over billions of euros in claimed loan guarantees. • pending releases related to the collapse of the Icelandic banks and Icelandic "oligarchs".

More at http://wikileaks.org/

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U.S. Intelligence planned to destroy WikiLeaks 15 March 2010: This document is a classified (SECRET/NOFORN) 32 page U.S. counterintelligence investigation into WikiLeaks. ``The possibility that current employees or moles within DoD or elsewhere in the U.S. government are providing sensitive or classified information to WikiLeaks.org cannot be ruled out''. It concocts a plan to fatally marginalize the organization. Since WikiLeaks uses ``trust as a center of gravity by protecting the anonymity and identity of the insiders, leakers or whistleblowers'', the report recommends ``The identification, exposure, termination of employment, criminal prosecution, legal action against current or former insiders, leakers, or whistleblowers could potentially damage or http://file.wikileaks.org/file/us-intel-wikileaks.pdf

destroy this center of gravity and deter others considering similar actions from using the WikiLeaks.org Web site''. [As two years have passed since the date of the report, with no WikiLeaks' source exposed, it appears that this plan was ineffective]. As an odd justification for the plan, the report claims that ``Several foreign countries including China, Israel, North Korea, Russia, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe have denounced or blocked access to the WikiLeaks.org website''. The report provides further justification by enumerating embarrassing stories broken by WikiLeaks---U.S. equipment expenditure in Iraq, probable U.S. violations of the Chemical Warfare Convention Treaty in Iraq, the battle over the Iraqi town of Fallujah and human rights violations at Guantanamo Bay.

Wikileaks: CIA document on mustering support for Afghanistan effort This classified CIA analysis from March, outlines possible PR-strategies to shore up public support in Germany and France for a continued war in Afghanistan. After the dutch government fell on the issue of dutch troops in Afghanistan last month, the CIA became worried that similar events could happen in the countries that post the third and fourth largest troop contingents to the ISAF-mission. The proposed PR strategies focus on pressure http://file.wikileaks.org/file/cia-afghanistan.pdf

points that have been identified within these countries. For France it is the sympathy of the public for Afghan refugees and women. For Germany it is the fear of the consequences of defeat (drugs, more refugees, terrorism) as well as for Germany's standing in the NATO. The memo is an recipe for the targeted manipulation of public opinion in two NATO ally countries, written by the CIA. It is classified as Confidential / No Foreign Nationals.

Dismantling of Saudi-CIA Web site illustrates need for clearer cyberwar policies Washington Post March 19, 2010 (excerpteded) By early 2008, top U.S. military officials had become convinced that extremists planning attacks on American forces in Iraq were making use of a Web site set up by the Saudi government and the CIA to uncover terrorist plots in the kingdom.

Editor: Dalene Duvenage

Elite U.S. military computer specialists, over the objections of the CIA, mounted a cyberattack that dismantled the online forum. Although some Saudi officials had been informed in advance about the Pentagon's plan, several key princes were "absolutely furious" at the loss of an intelligencegathering tool, according to another former U.S. official.

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Four former senior U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified operations, said the creation and shutting down of the site illustrate the need for clearer policies governing cyberwar. The use of computers to gather intelligence or to disrupt the enemy presents complex questions: When is a cyberattack outside the theater of war allowed? Is taking out an extremist Web site a covert operation or a traditional military activity? Should Congress be informed? Precedent before policy The absence of clear guidelines for cyberwarfare is not new. The George W. Bush administration was compelled in its final years to refine doctrine as it executed operations. "Cyber was moving so fast that we were always in danger of building up precedent before we built up policy," said former CIA director Michael V. Hayden, without confirming or denying the existence of the site or its dismantling. Lawyers at the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel are struggling to define the legal rules of the road for cyberwarriors, according to current and former officials. The Saudi-CIA Web site was set up several years ago as a "honey pot," an online forum covertly monitored by intelligence agencies to identify attackers and gain information, according to three of the former officials. The site was a boon to Saudi intelligence operatives, who were able to round up some extremists before they could strike, the former officials said. At the time, however, dozens of Saudi jihadists were entering Iraq each month to carry out attacks. U.S. military officials grew concerned that the site "was being used to pass operational information" among extremists, one former official said. The threat was so serious, former officials said, that Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, requested that the site be shut down.

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The operation was debated by a task force on cyber-operations made up of representatives from the Defense and Justice departments, the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Council. Lt. Gen. Keith B. Alexander, who directs the National Security Agency, made a presentation. The CIA argued that dismantling the site would lead to a significant loss of intelligence. The NSA countered that taking it down was a legitimate operation in defense of U.S. troops. Although one Pentagon official asserted that the military did not have the authority to conduct such operations, the top military commanders made a persuasive case that extremists were using the site to plan attacks. The task force debated whether to go forward and, if so, under what authority. If the operation was deemed a traditional military activity, no congressional committee needed to be briefed. If it was a covert action, members of the intelligence committees would have to be notified. "The CIA didn't endorse the idea of crippling Web sites," said a U.S. counterterrorism official. The agency "understood that intelligence would be lost, and it was; that relationships with cooperating intelligence services would be damaged, and they were; and that the terrorists would migrate to other sites, and they did." Unintended outcomes A central challenge of cyberwarfare is that an attacker can never be sure that an action will affect only the intended target. The dismantling of the CIA-Saudi site inadvertently disrupted more than 300 servers in Saudi Arabia, Germany and Texas, a former official said. "In order to take down a Web site that is up in Country X, because the cyber-world knows no boundaries, you may end up taking out a server that is located in Country Y," the task force participant explained.

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After the operation, Saudi officials vented their frustration about the loss of intelligence to the CIA. Agency officials said the U.S. military had upset an ally and acted outside its authority in conducting a covert operation, former officials said. Efforts were made to mollify the Saudis and the Germans, they said. "There was a lot of bowing and scraping," one official said. One early advocate for using cyberoperations against extremists was Gen. John P. Abizaid, former Central Command chief. He told a Senate committee in 2006, "We must recognize that failing to contest these virtual safe havens entails significant risk to our

nation's security and the security of our troops in the field." But some experts counter that dismantling Web sites is ineffective -- no sooner does a site come down than a mirror site pops up somewhere else. Because extremist groups store backup copies of forum information in servers around the world, "you can't really shut down this process for more than 24 or 48 hours," said Evan F. Kohlmann, a terrorism researcher and a consultant to the Nine/Eleven Finding Answers Foundation. "It seems difficult to understand," he added, "why governments would interrupt what everyone acknowledges now to be a lucrative intelligence-gathering tool." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/18/AR2010031805464.html

Australia & New Zealand ASIO sinking under asylum-seeker workload The Australian, 27 March 2010 (ed: excerpted) AUTHORITIES were last night The stoush came as Mr preparing for another mass transfer Carnell said there had been a of asylum-seekers from Christmas "major" increase in Island, as Australia's intelligence complaints against ASIO over watchdog warned ASIO was struggling the time it was taking to to cope with the deluge of security perform security checks. assessments on boatpeople. Speaking to The Weekend The warning from the InspectorAustralian, Mr Carnell said General of Intelligence and Security, this financial year alone his Ian Carnell, came as the authorities on office had received 670 complaints. That Christmas Island readied for the arrival this compared with just 157 for all of 2008-09. morning of a Qantas Boeing 737, the third Writing in a parliamentary submission, the and largest charter flight to arrive on the intelligence watchdog said: "It also seems island in four days. that there has been an impact from the It came as Mr Carnell told The Weekend diversion within ASIO of resources to deal Australian the number of complaints against with increased numbers of irregular arrival ASIO has more than quadrupled, after a cases. The large majority of irregular cases blowout in processing times for asylummust, under the current criteria, be assessed seeker security checks. from a security point of view." Mr Carnell said And he warned ASIO had been forced to the surge in asylum checks presented a transfer skilled staff from other visa security "conundrum" for ASIO. screening categories to cope with the surge. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/asio-sinking-under-asylum-seeker-workload/storye6frgczf-1225846190989 Editor: Dalene Duvenage

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ASIO spooks spied on little girls The file states Ms Rhiannon studied motor The Sunday Telegraph March 21, 2010 mechanics at the University of NSW. In fact, ASIO spied on 15-year-old schoolgirls and she was studying for a double major in botany badly bungled even the simplest and zoology. investigations, it has been revealed. Ms Rhiannon, who is vying for a seat in the Secret files kept by the Australian Security Senate, said she was "sickened" ASIO had Intelligence Organisation reveal spooks tailed spied on her and other students at Sydney the teenage children of suspected socialists Girls' High in 1967. Among ASIO's informants and communist sympathisers during the late were the parents of other girls. 1960s, and anyone with whom they associated, including school friends and "What a disgraceful saga and a waste of boyfriends. public money," she said. "I was surprised how often ASIO was wrong about what I had done An 800-page file on NSW Greens MP Lee in my life, and I don't mean just political Rhiannon, released last week, reveals spies action. The mistakes about my education and kept a file on Ms Rhiannon from the age of travel arrangements are extraordinary." seven, and followed her and her school friends when they were Year 10 students. The first entry in Ms Rhiannon's file was made when she was seven to note that she had The file is riddled with glaring inaccuracies attended a picnic organised by a socialist about Ms Rhiannon's education, protest newspaper. activities and family, including her mother Freda Brown, a Communist Party member. An ASIO spokeswoman said it was possible to have information contained in a file corrected Among ASIO's mistakes were references to if a statement was made to the National the activities of a mysterious man named Ian Archives office. Brown, who spies believed was an alias for Ms Rhiannon's brother, John. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/asio-spooks-spied-on-little-girls/story-e6frf7l61225843320146

NZ: External spies turn focus on home front The Dominion Post, 19 March 2010 Domestic security threats will be more closely examined by a reformed government intelligence bureau. The External Assessments Bureau announced on its website that it has been renamed the National Assessments Bureau. The Green Party says this is a "huge change", creating a "domestic spy agency" that should have been subject to Parliament's scrutiny. The name change marks a change of emphasis for the bureau, with more work being done on intelligence within New Zealand. The staff and budget have not increased from the existing 30 people and $3.5 million.

The change follows a review of the Government's three security services by former foreign affairs secretary Simon Murdoch. Besides the new bureau, the Government also relies on the Security Intelligence Service (SIS) and the Government Communications Security Bureau for intelligence. The National Assessments Bureau is a unit of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and will now provide more advice on threats from within as well as from overseas. Prime Minister John Key said the change reflected the need for intelligence agencies to make sure people were safe ahead of the Rugby World Cup next year.


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"So, in that regard, it is a National public service is in the spy agencies, who are Assessments Bureau as opposed to [being] quite unaccountable to the general public." purely external." Green Party foreign affairs A beefed-up domestic security effort by the spokesman Keith Locke said a lack of new bureau could create confusion and consultation over the change treated crossover with the work being done by police Parliament and the public with contempt. "It and the SIS, he said. is a bit sad where the only growth area in the http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/politics/3473963/External-spies-turn-focus-on-home-front

Europe Germany: MP's staffer spied for intelligence agency Published: 23 Mar 2010 A researcher for a former Social Democratic member of the German parliament was spying for the Berlin intelligence agency for two years, daily Berliner Zeitung reported Tuesday. The member of staff of Andreas Weigel worked with the city-state of Berlin's Verfassungsschutz domestic intelligence service between 2003 and 2005. During this time he had access to classified documents from the parliament’s defence committee. Despite being a full-time member of Weigel’s staff, the researcher – named as Timo N. – also had an open-ended work contract with the intelligence office and carried out jobs on its behest. Weigel, a former MP for the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) from Saxony left the parliament, or Bundestag, last year. He reportedly knew of his staffer's dual role. Members of the environmentalist Greens and social Left party have branded the covert activity as unacceptable. Timo N. was personally recruited by Stephan Sch., the head of the department charged with watching political extremists, the paper reported. The official offered him an employment contract even though he knew Timo N. already had the job in the Bundestag.

Editor: Dalene Duvenage

The arrangement was virtually unique in Germany, a high-ranking security official told the paper. “For the Verfassungsschutz as well as the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Military Counterintelligence Agency (MAD), it is practice not to recruit services within the Bundestag,” said the official. “The damage that could occur for the office through the cover being blown outweighs the possible uses of such an operative.” The Berlin branch of the Verfassungsschutz itself declined to respond to questions from the paper. It stated however that it regarded “a parallel employment by workers of the Verfassungsschutz and the parliamentary chamber as basically incompatible” and added that exceptions were only made “in particular isolated cases.” It was not clear what made Timo N.’s case special. He is regarded as an expert in Islamic extremism and terrorism and took part in the Munich Security Conference, which attracts top-ranking officials from around the world. He told the paper the Verfassungsschutz had imposed a gag order that prevented his speaking.He did say, however, the office had been “interested in my methodical knowledge in terrorism research.” Weigel confirmed he knew of Timo N.’s dual role – though he did not inform the SPD

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parliamentary leadership nor the Bundestag with classified papers including NATO administration. Weigel had sat in the documents, Weigel acknowledged. Greens Afghanistan working group of the defence MP Christian Ströbele said: “Many citizens committee until last summer and had taken trustingly turn to MPs with sensitive several trips to the war-torn country, in which information and requests.” He concluded it Germany has about 4,400 troops. Timo N.’s was a “very problematic arrangement.” work would have brought him into contact http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20100323-26061.html

UK: IT-illiterate MI5 staff face redundancy ZDNet UK, 29 March, 2010 (excerpted-ed) (CESG), the information assurance arm of the The UK's Security Service has introduced a Government Communications Headquarters redundancy programme for staff who lack IT (GCHQ), is servicing a "growing customer skills, according to the Intelligence and base" and has a funding shortfall of several Security Committee's annual report. million pounds. In the report, which was laid before GCHQ took on 600 new staff between 2008 parliament on 18 March, Security Service and 2009, resulting in a small net increase of director general Jonathan Evans is quoted as three percent, from 5,051 to 5,296 staff. saying the Service — commonly known as According to the committee, GCHQ said that MI5 — was instituting voluntary and "recruitment of the much sought-after compulsory redundancies after a review of its internet analysts, those with rare language staff profile. skills and information assurance specialists "I think some of the staff perhaps aren't quite continue to be our main challenge". the ones that we will want for the future," The report also noted that the Security Evans said, according to the report. Service and the Secret Intelligence Service Compiled by a group of nine MPs and peers, (SIS, more commonly known as MI6) were the report said that 610 new staff joined the planning to establish a joint datacentre to service between 2008-2009. A further provide secure storage for both services' data 253 positions are scheduled to be filled by records outside London. The two agencies are April 2010. splitting the cost. In addition, the report indicated that the Communications-Electronics Security Group http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/security-management/2010/03/29/it-illiterate-mi5-staff-faceredundancy-40088478/?tag=mncol;txt

People US: Obama starting over, again, in search for transportation security chief Associated Press March 27, 2010 (ed: excerpted) WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama is back to square one — again — in finding a transportation security chief to shore up the

Editor: Dalene Duvenage

nation's defenses against terrorist threats from the air, road and rail. Retired Army Maj. Gen. Robert Harding took himself out of the running Friday night as head of the Transportation Security Administration, another setback for Obama

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after his first choice withdrew in January because he faced a tough confirmation struggle in Congress. The Obama administration has called the job the most important unfilled position on Obama's team. Harding's past as a defense contractor raised complications for his nomination. He had extensive intelligence experience that Obama hoped to tap in fortifying security against attacks such as the Christmas bombing attempt on an airliner bound for Detroit, which was foiled by passengers. The agency's primary mission is to keep commercial aviation safe from terrorism, but its responsibilities cover threats by land and ferry as well. Harding retired from the Army in 2001, ending a three-decade career during which he served as the Defense Department's top

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human intelligence officer, managing a $1 billion intelligence collection program. He became a government consultant on human intelligence and counterintelligence, selling his company in 2009. Questions arose after his nomination about a contract his company had with the government to provide interrogators in Iraq. After the government ended the contract early, in 2004, Harding Security Associates claimed more money from termination of the contract than the Defense Department's inspector general said it was entitled to get. The firm refunded $1.8 million of that money in a 2008 settlement with the Defense Intelligence Agency. http://www.startribune.com/politics/893085 67.html

Terrorism How a Yemeni terrorist slipped through the cracks By David Ignatius, March 27, 2010 (ed: my emphasis) Last October, the Yemeni government came to the CIA with a request: Could the agency collect intelligence that might help target the network of a US-born Al-Qaeda recruiter named Anwar al-Aulaqi? What happened next is haunting, in light of subsequent events: The CIA concluded that it could not assist the Yemenis in locating Aulaqi for a possible capture operation. The primary reason was that the agency lacked specific evidence that he threatened the lives of Americans – which is the threshold for any capture-or-kill operation against a citizen of the United States. The Yemenis also wanted US Special Forces’ help in pursuing Aulaqi; that, too, was refused. Even if the CIA had obtained hard evidence in October that Aulaqi was a threat, and Special Forces had been authorized for a capture operation, permission from the National Security Council would have been needed. That’s because any use of lethal force against

Editor: Dalene Duvenage

a “US person,” such as Aulaqi, requires White House review. Anwar al-Aulaqi The subsequent chain of events was a chilling demonstration of Aulaqi’s power as an Al-Qaeda facilitator: On November 5, US Army Major Nidal Hasan killed 13 of his fellow soldiers at Fort Hood, Texas; Hasan had exchanged 18 or more emails with Aulaqi in the months before the shootings, according to the Associated Press. Then, on Christmas Day, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian who had been living in Yemen, tried to blow up an airliner bound for Detroit; he is said to have confessed later that Aulaqi was one of his trainers for this mission. The Aulaqi case is worth revisiting, for several reasons. In hindsight, it seems clear that he was indeed a dangerous person. If the US had helped the Yemenis capture him, this might have disrupted the actions of Hasan and Abdulmutallab. So it’s useful to examine the

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rules that limited action in October and the shooting, but they did not prompt action. If quality of intelligence that was available for they didn’t meet the threshold for concern, decision-makers. then something was wrong with that threshold. Such retrospective analysis is unfair, to be sure, but it provides a useful lens for A US official familiar with the case responds: assessing policy choices. After September 11, “Aulaqi didn’t go operational until November. 2001, there were detailed investigations of It wasn’t a case of missed intelligence, not at the Clinton administration’s failure to capture all. The Yemenis didn’t even think he had or kill Osama bin Laden in the late 1990s and assumed an operational role.” This official of the George W. Bush administration’s also notes that “there was an American policy failure to heed warnings before the 2001 decision not to put boots on the ground,” terrorist attacks. limiting any military action. What’s surprising about the Aulaqi case is just In retrospect, it seems clear that the available how much information the FBI and CIA information should have triggered closer already had on him. At least two of the 9/11 scrutiny of both Hasan and Aulaqi. We’ll hijackers had attended a mosque where he never know whether such action could have preached in San Diego. His phone number deterred Hasan. As for Aulaqi, officials now was found in the Hamburg apartment of say he is on the United States’ target list. Ramzi Binalshibh, often described as “the Finally, does it make sense to require special 20th hijacker.” The FBI was interested in NSC permission before a potentially lethal Aulaqi even before 9/11, because of his operation against a US citizen such as Aulaqi? alleged fundraising for Hamas. So there was My answer would be, yes. The higher US intelligence concern about him as a threshold that was in place in 2009 was possible Al-Qaeda operative dating back appropriate then, and still is: Use of lethal nearly a decade. force always needs careful controls – Hasan had attended another mosque where especially when it involves Americans. Aulaqi preached, in Northern Virginia. Indeed, The “what ifs” about Yemen are troubling, not according to Aulaqi, when Hasan first least because they are a reminder the contacted him by email on December 17, intelligence agencies have to make life-or2008, he wrote: “Do you remember me? I death calculations based on fragmentary used to pray with you at the Virginia evidence – with catastrophic consequences if mosque.” In another email, Hasan is said to they’re wrong. What was needed, we can have told Aulaqi: “I can’t wait to join you” in now see, was hard information last October the afterlife. that could have met the legal standard Military-intelligence investigators apparently appropriately in place reviewed these emails before the Fort Hood Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=113187#ixzz0jNZ0 wFM9

Nuclear terrorism remains intelligence priority ahead of nuclear summit: U.S. intelligence analyst English.news.cn 2010-03-25 WASHINGTON, March 24 (Xinhua) -- As Washington gears up to host a Nuclear Security Summit, a senior U.S. intelligence Editor: Dalene Duvenage

analyst said Wednesday nuclear terrorism threat remains an intelligence priority, but so far no terrorist groups have shown the ability

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to launch a large scale attack involving on it," but the threat of terrorists carrying out weapons of mass destruction (WMD). a sophisticated WMD attack is not as high as the more individual attacks. Mathew Burrows, head of analysis in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Echoing an earlier comment made by CIA told a Washington briefing that nuclear chief Leon Panetta that recent terrorism or WMD terrorism "remains a counterterrorism operations have had alpriority area" for intelligence analysis, but so Qaida leaders "on the run," Burrows said alfar, in terms of terrorists orchestrating a large Qaida's ability to mount a 9/11-style attack attack, U.S. intelligence community haven't has vastly diminished, consistent with the picked up any signs of that capability yet. notion that al-Qaida central being on the run. However, he said that doesn't mean the Burrows said the U.S. intelligence community threat from terrorism isn't high. is closely watching any signs involving nuclear or WMD terrorism, "we follow up any reports http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-03/25/c_13224044.htm

Noteworthy A Growing Terrorist Threat? Assessing “Homegrown” Extremism in the United States A Report of the CSIS Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program Extract: Above all, these five cases demonstrate that extremist violence in the United States is far from monolithic; as such, there are no simple or easy fixes to the problem. Neither race, nor socioeconomic background, nor national origin unified last fall’s suspects. Religion did, but basing policy solutions solely on this connection is likely to prove unfulfilling, create unachievable goals, and even potentially push more Muslims to embrace the fringe agenda of al Qaeda and other global terrorist groups. Rather, sensible approaches to homegrown extremism must be grounded in concrete, tangible initiatives. A law enforcement paradigm offers an appropriate framework in which to assess the problem.46 Around this base, U.S. policymakers and officials should continue efforts to build capacity at local, state, and federal levels. In this regard, partnerships and cooperation must reign supreme; local officials possess the community-based knowledge that is essential to prevent domestic terrorism, and federal officials have the expertise in counterterrorism necessary to interdict complex, transnational plots—including those with origins on the Internet. Finally, the Obama administration must give special consideration to how homegrown extremism fits within the United States’ larger strategic framework for dealing with global terrorism. As a basic matter, officials should dispel any and all notions that U.S. military involvement in Muslim countries constitutes some kind of anti-Islam agenda. Longer term, the White House must consider ways to shift the U.S. approach to counterterrorism away from large-scale and overt intervention and toward partnerships with countries plagued by extremist violence. None of these measures are certain to reduce homegrown extremism in the United States, and this report does not endeavor to propose catch-all solutions for the threat. We do hope, however, that this analysis accelerates a much-needed debate on an emerging and troubling trend. http://csis.org/files/publication/100304_Nelson_GrowingTerroristThreat_Web.pdf

Editor: Dalene Duvenage

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National Drug Threat Assessment 2010 This report provides policymakers, law enforcement executives, resource planners, and counterdrug program coordinators with strategic intelligence regarding the threat posed to the United States by the trafficking and abuse of illicit drugs. The assessment highlights strategic trends in the production, transportation, distribution, and abuse of illegal and controlled prescription drugs. It also presents strategic intelligence regarding the operational trends and tendencies of drug trafficking organizations and street gangs that distribute illegal drugs and highlight drug trafficking trends along the Southwest Border. (ed: an excellent example of a strategic intelligence product) http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs38/38661/index.htm#Contents

The Joint Operating Environment 2010 This US document is intended to inform joint concept development and experimentation throughout the Department of Defense. It provides a perspective on future trends, shocks, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders and other leaders and professionals in the national security field. This document is speculative in nature and does not suppose to predict what will happen in the next twenty-five years. Rather, it is intended to serve as a starting point for discussions about the future security environment at the operational level of war. In the broadest sense, the Joint Operating Environment examines three questions: • What future trends and disruptions are likely to affect the Joint Force over the next quarter century? • How are these trends and disruptions likely to define the future contexts for joint operations? • What are the implications of these trends and contexts for the Joint Force? Ed: This document is worthwhile for discussions about how the intelligence threat has changed, as well when detecting warning indicators for strategic intelligence. http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf

Trends in Electoral Violence in Sub-Sahara Africa Studies indicate that violence affects between 19 and 25 percent of all elections in Africa. In many countries where electoral violence is a risk, it tends to recur and may consequently lead to an unfavourable view of democratization. Some recent actions taken by the governments and civil society may offer insights into reversing the trends of recurring violence. www.usip.org/files/resources/PB13Electoral%20Violence.pdf

Intelligence Community seeks to measure ‘trustworthiness’ Thu, 2010-03-18 By: Jacob Goodwin (ed: excerpted) The U.S. Intelligence Community is eager to develop tools that would enable its analysts to determine whom they can trust under certain conditions, even in the Editor: Dalene Duvenage

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presence of stress or deception. The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), a relatively new organization that reports to the Director of National Intelligence, has issued a broad agency announcement that seeks to develop a methodology that can “detect and validate one’s own ‘useful’ signals for accurately assessing another’s trustworthiness.” The BAA invites prospective vendors to submit proposals for the first of three phases of a new research effort, known as the “Tools for Recognizing Useful Signals of Trustworthiness (TRUST) Program. Knowing whom to trust in specific contexts is vital for many Intelligence Community (IC) missions and organizations,” explains the BAA, which was issued by IARPA on February 15. “However, trust and trustworthiness – as concepts – remain highly subjective from a research standpoint and present a challenge that is both qualitative and quantitative. http://www.gsnmagazine.com/article/20334/intelligence_community_seeks_measure_%E2%80%9 8trustworthin

Lashkar-I-Taiba: The Fallacy of Subservient Proxies and the Future of Islamist Terrorism in India Authored by Dr. Ryan Clarke. A discussion of the foundation of Lashkar-i-Taiba (LeT), the development of its modus operandi, and engages in an investigation of LeT’s activities in India, Pakistan, and the Kashmir region are discussed. Further, LeT’s fundraising methods are touched upon, and LeT’s relationships with regional state and nonstate actors such as Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Dawood Ibrahim’s D-Company are analyzed. The author argues that although LeT has been a vital component of Islamabad’s regional strategy in the past, the organization has grown beyond the control of its former patron, is largely self-sufficient and operates independently of the political process, and has expanded its agenda well beyond Kashmir. These developments challenge the long-held notion that irregulars can be sustainably used to achieve limited objectives in an asymmetric conflict and should serve as a clear warning to other state sponsors of terrorism. However, contrary to many analyses, LeT is not likely to sacrifice its independence and come under Al-Qaeda’s umbrella. Rather, LeT will continue to evolve into a distinctive, South Asia-centric terrorist actor in its own right while still receiving aid from fringe elements in Pakistan’s security and intelligence apparatus and elsewhere. This will not only allow LeT to continue to plan future Mumbai-style terrorist attacks in India from safe havens in Pakistan, but will also allow LeT to guide and assist the predominantly indigenous Indian Mujahideen (IM). http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/download.cfm?q=973

Books For All the Tea in China Sarah Rose This new book tells how the British Government's 19th-century plot to clandestinely acquire China's tea secrets. "For All the Tea in China" tells the story of industrial spy Robert Fortune, who traveled to China on behalf of the East India Company in 1848 in order to infiltrate the tea farms of China's interior and learn their secrets for growing and processing tea. A gardener and botanist by trade, Fortune was charged with delivering to the British the Editor: Dalene Duvenage

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knowledge – and seedlings – to keep its tea trade alive. http://www.worldteanews.com/index.php/20100301886/Products/New-Book-Tells-Tale-of-TeaTheft.html

Nest of Spies Fabrice de Pierrebourg and Michel Juneau-Katsuya Reviewed by Rebecca Walberg Canada has become one of the most attractive countries in the world for spies, argues Nest of Spies, and to date little has been done about it. Because of our prosperity, advanced technology, close alliances with major powers and multicultural cities, we’re not only a ripe target for spying, but also a fairly safe haven for foreign agents. Flabby law enforcement and an unwillingness to prosecute have only worsened the situation. While the United States, Great Britain and France have tried hundreds of cases involving spying since the 1990s, Canada has not prosecuted a single one. Industrial spying between France and the U.S. and the resulting political tensions have led to the expulsion of diplomats suspected of involvement. Here, though, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service is prohibited from pursuing espionage carried out by corporations, which further lowers the risk to foreign spies. Another category of espionage is what Pierrebourg and Juneau-Katsuya call “foreign interference.” Immigrants make up a growing proportion of the Canadian population, and many left behind countries in which freedom of speech, human rights and democratic accountability are, to put it mildly, not highly prized. When new Canadians criticize their countries of origin, rally activists to their cause and lobby their representatives to press for reforms, they frequently become targets for reprisals, ranging from social pressure and coercion all the way to assassination. More byzantine yet is the role played by foreign intelligence agencies in bringing conflicts from other parts of the world to Canadian soil. Nest of Spies discusses the Air India bombing of 1986 extensively, and points out that there are still many holes in our understanding of how this atrocity, until Sept. 11 the bloodiest terrorist act in history, came about. One factor, the authors suggest, is the track record of interference on the part of Indian agents with Sikh communities within Canada. This hampered RCMP and CSIS intelligence gathering, and dissuaded moderate Sikhs from involving themselves with government investigations, ultimately helping to provide cover for the Sikh extremists behind the bombing. The structure of the book is problematic, with major themes organized neither chronologically nor by country. Perhaps as a result, some passages are repetitive. The colloquial tone is also questionable: The frequent broadsides against unnamed bureaucrats could have been deleted, for example, without weakening any of the author’s arguments or criticisms. These flaws aside, though, de Pierrebourg and Juneau-Katsuya present a strong argument that Canada’s security institutions don’t pay enough attention to espionage, particularly when it comes to technology and business. Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/afterword/archive/2010/03/13/bookreview-nest-of-spies-by-fabrice-de-pierrebourg-and-michel-juneau-katsuya.aspx#ixzz0iKNea86u

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Events Dungarvan Conference 2010 Sunday, 11-13 July 2010 As one of the United States’ thought leaders on intelligence analysis, and an innovative research institution on intelligence analysis best practices, Mercyhurst College has embarked on a number of outreach initiatives to capture best practices in the Intelligence Community. Toward that end, Mercyhurst is hosting the first of what we hope to be annual conferences inDungarvan, Ireland that will focus on key intelligence issues from a global perspective. We believe that the intelligence discipline can best be explored and comprehended by taking a holistic and generalist approach. Therefore we are reaching out to our friends across the globe in a wide variety of fields to converse and discuss analytic best practices. The conference panels will be composed of leading practitioners in the fields of medicine, the law, finance, technology, journalism and the sub disciplines of national security, law enforcement, and business intelligence. The goal for this year’s conference is to explore the nature of analysis and its application in various disciplines, building bridges between analytic practitioners and

scholars within those disciplines, and exploring best practices in terms of teaching analytic methodologies. Intended takeaways for attendees include a deeper and broader appreciation of the value of different analytic methods which can be borrowed as “best practices” from other disciplines, as well as instruction on the application of at least two of them. Subsequent annual conferences will continue to address analytic best practices but with a larger vision to include intelligence as an enterprise essential to organizational success and learning. We plan to host the conference each year in Dungarvan in an effort to provide a more central location for our European partners, and continue to grow the relationship between Mercyhurst and Ireland. FOR MORE DETAILS: http://www.regonline.com/builder/site/defa ult.aspx?EventID=826351

Publishing the Intelligencer is a labour of love, an awareness campaign, and an educational vehicle. It will not be used for commercial purposes and email addresses are confidential. Previous editions can be found at http://4knowledge-za.blogspot.com/ Notice: The SA Intelligencer does not confirm the correctness of the information carried in the media, neither does it analyse the agendas or political affiliations of such media. The SA Intelligencer’s purpose is informing our readers of the developments in the world of intelligence for research and environmental scanning purposes. We only use OSINT from free open sources and not those from fee-based sources. The SA Intelligencer contains copyrighted material - the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We do not take responsibility for the correctness of the information contained herein. The content has been harvested from various news aggregators, web alerts, lists etc. This work is in the Public Domain. To view a copy of the public domain certification, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/publicdomain/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. Contact Dalene Duvenage at dalene@4knowledge.co.za should you wish to subscribe or unsubscribe.

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SA Intelligencer #73  

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