{' '} {' '}
Limited time offer
SAVE % on your upgrade.

Page 1

issue 20

february 2020

In this issue LATEST DUBLIN ECONOMIC DATA IHS MARKIT DUBLIN PMI MASTERCARD SPENDINGPULSE COMPETITIVENESS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ARE KEY CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT DECADE

PAGE 12 SMART DUBLIN EXPLORES HOW AI AND SOCIAL MEDIA CAN HELP IMPROVE THE CITY REGION

LAURA KIRCHNER PROJECT MANAGER, CITIBEATS

PAGE 14

SUSTAINABILITY - A PATHWAY TO STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM

AIDEEN O’HORA FOUNDING DIRECTOR OF SUSTAINABILITYWORKS


WELCOME

HIGHLIGHTS Dublin’s unemployment Dublin's unemployment rate fell to a 14 year low of 4.4% (SA) in Q3 2019. Dublin’s employment continued to grow strongly in Q3 with ICT and Insurance & Real Estate Activities recording all-time highs. Construction employment growth slowed to 2.6% YoY. Dublin’s property prices contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November (-0.7% YoY), the longest spell of deflation since late 2012. Dublin rents continue to rise strongly (6.7% YoY). Dublin Airport continues to set records with the first nine months of 2019 seeing 24.5 million passengers, up 5.4% on the same period in 2018. Housebuilding in Dublin recovered quickly from a period of sharp negative growth in Q2, with both completions and commencements returning to positive YoY and QoQ growth in Q3. Public transport trips in Dublin reached 243million in 2019 an increase of 8.7% on 2018. Within this the LUAS saw the fastest annual growth at 15%. The Mastercard SpendingPulse shows that despite weakness in discretionary goods, Dublin retail sales growth was solid in Q4 (3.3% YoY). Tourist spending growth continued to ease. The Dublin MARKIT PMI recovered marginally to 53.7 in Q4 2019 as Manufacturing expanded for the first time since Q4 2018 and Services output accelerated.

COVER IMAGE: RUSH, CO DUBLIN

2 //

WELCOME TO THE FEBRUARY 2020 ISSUE OF THE DUBLIN ECONOMIC MONITOR

W

elcome to the first issue of the Dublin Economic Monitor of the new decade! The Dublin Economic Monitor is a joint initiative on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities, and is designed to be of interest to those living and doing business in Dublin or considering locating here. It is produced by EYDKM Economic Advisory Services and IHS MARKIT deliver the Dublin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). We also partner with Mastercard to use their SpendingPulse reports to better understand retail and tourism spending patterns. The SpendingPulse is derived from anonymised and aggregated card transaction data as well as other means of payments such as cash and cheques. This data helps the city develop new insights on the spending patterns of Dubliners and tourists, as well as comparing the Dublin City Council

South Dublin County Council

Capital's performance to the whole of Ireland (see centrefold supplement). The special articles this quarter focus on some of the major challenges and opportunities for the next decade. The first, from Laura Kirchner at Citibeats, highlights how social media can be used to measure sentiment towards a variety of issues in an innovative way. The second article is written by Aideen O’Hora, Director of Sustainability Works, and it looks at how corporates are going to have to adapt if sustainability is to be achieved, a theme highlighted at the recent annual World Economic Forum. We hope you find the Monitor useful and welcome any feedback. You can sign up to our quarterly mailing list and access the Monitor resources online at dublineconomy.ie. You can follow us on twitter @DCCEconDev. The next release will be published in May 2020. Fingal County Council

Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Council

This document provides general information on the Dublin economy. It is not intended to be used as a basis for any particular course of action or as a substitute for financial advice. The document is produced independently by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services; the views and opinions expressed are those of the relevant author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dublin Local Authorities. The Dublin Local Authorities disclaim all liability in connection with any action that may be taken in reliance of this document, and for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.


ECONOMY

GLOBAL ECONOMY

NATIONAL ECONOMY

The OECD’s most recently published forecasts indicate that global GDP growth will be 2.9% in 2019 – its lowest annual rate since the financial crisis. Ongoing trade conflicts, weak business investment and continuing political uncertainty have also seen growth forecasts revised downwards to 2.9% and 3.0% in 2020 and 2021 respectively, raising the risk of long-term stagnation.

Ireland’s economic bull-run continued in Q3 2019, as the economy expanded by 5.0% YoY compared with Q3 2018. This followed on from the European Commission’s forecasts that Ireland’s GDP will grow by 5.6% in 2019, the highest in the EU. Monthly unemployment, at 4.8%, remains at its lowest level since February 2007. YoY wage growth of 3.4% in Q3 2019, coupled with strong employment growth of 2.4% and inflation of 1.3% in the year to December, continued to increase real incomes and boost the domestic economy. This was reflected in November’s YoY retail sales growth of 1.9% (excluding motor trades), with consumer sentiment improving for the second successive month in December, as the near-term threat of a ‘crash out’ Brexit diminished.

global gdp growth, 2016 - 2019 4.6 4.2

3.8

corporation tax receipts, ireland, 2013 – 2019

3.4

12

24%

10

20%

8

16%

6

12%

4

8%

2

4%

3.0

% CHANGES, QUARTERLY

Jul-19

Apr-19

Jan-19

Oct-18

Jul-18

Apr-18

Jan-18

Oct-17

Jul-17

Apr-17

Oct-16

Jan-17

Jul-16

Apr-16

2.2

Jan-16

2.6

YEAR-ON-YEAR

source: oecd global economic outlook, nov 2019

0

UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The UK economy contracted 0.3% MoM in November 2019, thereby reducing YoY growth to 0.6%, its lowest since June 2012. According to the British Retail Consortium, the value of retail sales declined 0.1% in 2019, marking the worst annual performance since data was first gathered in 1995. Meanwhile manufacturing output fell at its fastest rate since 2012, as a lethargic global economy weakened demand, and businesses further reduced stocks of goods built up in fear of a no-deal Brexit. The Conservative Party’s decisive majority in December’s general election is likely to galvanise business sentiment by offering a more predictable political landscape and greater Brexit clarity – in the short-term, at least. The EY ITEM Club predicts the UK economy will grow 1.2% in 2020, while the UK Services Business Activity Index reported that business expectations within the services sector were at their highest levels since September 2018 after the vote.

global

3.6

2019 %f 2.9

2014

2015

2016

% TOTAL EXCHEQUER TAX RECEIPTS (RHS)

2017

2018

2019

0%

CORPORATION TAX RECEIPTS (€BN)

source: Department of finance

The government ran a budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2019. However, net debt of €176bn is still very high, and there are question marks over the long-term sustainability of Ireland’s rapidly increasing corporation tax receipts which stem from a small number of large multinational companies. With a general election scheduled for 8 February 2020, it remains to be seen what approach will be taken by the future government to address these fiscal challenges.

irish macroeconomic growth forecasts 2019 %F

2020 %f

gnp

3.8%

3.5%

gdp

4.1%

3.3%

private consumption

2.7%

2.3%

2.9

public expenditure

5.5%

4.1%

7.1%

5.7%

major economies gdp growth forecasts 2018 %

2013

2020 %f

uk

1.4

1.2

1.0

investment

us

2.9

2.3

2.0

exports

5.0%

4.7%

imports

5.7%

5.4% 4.5%

euro area

1.9

1.2

1.1

germany

1.5

0.6

0.4

unemployment rate

4.8%

japan

0.8

1.0

0.6

employment

2.8%

1.8%

china

6.6

6.2

5.7

modified final domestic demand

4.1%

3.6%

india

6.8

5.8

6.2

modified total domestic demand

3.8%

3.2%

source: oecd world economic outlook, nov 2019

sources: ey economic eye forecasts. f: forecast; based on an orderly Brexit

// 3


DUBLIN ECONOMY

DUBLIN’S SUCCESS HAS COME WITH CHALLENGES WHICH MUST BE ADDRESSED The success the city has enjoyed in recent years has left it now facing challenges associated with overheating Dublin’s economy has undergone significant changes in the last 10-years. As we enter this new decade, it is an opportune time to reflect on the key strengths and weaknesses of the local and national economy over the past 10 years. The Dublin of Q1 2010 was a much different city to the one we have today:  An unemployment rate of 11.6% which subsequently peaked at 13.7% in Q1 2012;  A workforce made up of 574,100 people;  A total of 45.6 million public transport trips and;  4.7 million passengers passed through Dublin Airport (Q2 2012). Today the city boasts unemployment of 4.4% (-9.3pp since Q1 2010), a 718,300 strong workforce (+25.1%), 62.6 million public passenger trips (+34.4%) and 8.3 million passengers through Dublin Airport (+76.6%). To focus on such strong headline numbers, however, does not provide the full picture of the changes recorded in Dublin over this

4 //

period. Compared to early 2010, when the key challenges were growth, debt and unemployment, Dublin is now faced with the challenges associated with overheating – a direct reflection of the strong economic performance recorded in the latter half of the last decade. With the strengthening labour market, on the upside, and the issues in the housing market, on the downside, Dublin now finds itself entering this decade with the challenge of competitiveness very much at the forefront. While Dublin ranks well amongst its peers in terms of traditional competitiveness measures – productivity and output etc. – there has been a significant move in recent years to broaden the factors included in a city's competitiveness, with greater emphasis on aspects associated with quality and cost of living. In this respect, the economic success that Dublin has enjoyed in the last five years has resulted in competitiveness challenges that may take some time to resolve. On the labour side, as the market enters full employment, the number one issue facing businesses – both SMEs and large IDA-backed firms – is their ability to attract and retain talent. And the issues on the housing side of the market


DUBLIN ECONOMY

are creating pressure points both in terms of affordability for international investment and foreign talent. There are certain factors of the local economy that will need to be addressed in order to improve Dublin’s competitiveness. Infrastructure, and in particular road and public transport infrastructure, has emerged be one of the top priorities. TomTom data for 2019 shows that Dublin is now ranked 17th amongst 416 cities for congestion and is the 6th most congested city in Europe, for the second year in a row. Overall congestion levels in the city stand at 48%, up 3% on 2018. The strengthening workforce and housing affordability in the city are undoubtedly adding to the pressures on road infrastructure. However, improvements in public transport, and greater environmental awareness, is feeding the strong upward momentum in the use of public transport. Dublin recorded an increase of 19.5 million passenger trips on public transport in 2019, a rise of 8.7% YoY. In this context, priority must be on the delivery of further improvements with investment in projects such as MetroLink and BusConnect. Housing too is playing an important part in Dublin’s competitiveness as a leading European and global city. Following almost seven consecutive years of strong inflation, house prices in Dublin finally began to show signs of moderation in late 2019 – perhaps more a reflection of affordability rather than a return to a well-functioning market. Rents are another pressure point in the market with little to no sign of a let-up. Policies to address housing supply in the city will need to be multifold. Improving supply, and thus affordability, in the city should go some way to reducing commuting times and will help to improve the quality and cost of living in the city for residents and expatriates.

The city currently ranks 72 for expatriates in the InterNations 2019 world rankings. A significant drag on Dublin’s ranking last year came in the form of housing availability and affordability with the city ranked 82nd out of 82 cities in the finance and housing subcategory. According to the survey, expats are especially dissatisfied with the affordability of housing (88% negative response versus 44% global average) and with sourcing a place to live (86% reporting difficulty versus 32% global average). A recent study found that only 8% of tenants in Dublin’s Docklands are Irish with 52% classed as European and 32% as ‘international’. In that context, there is a growing importance to address the competitiveness challenges associated with housing, infrastructure and costs if the city is to continue to attract international talent, in high-skilled sectors, such as IT, especially. From overcoming the challenges of one of the worst economic crises in years to becoming one of the fastest-growing cities in one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, failure to address these issues will limit Dublin’s ability to compete – for investment and talent – into the next decade. There are no quick fixes, however, especially in terms of housing supply. The recent World Economic Forum highlighted that the responsibility for achieving sustainable growth and of attracting investment and talent should lie not only with governments but with all stakeholders – corporates and citizens alike. The form of this relationship may take time to evolve, but a unified approach amongst all stakeholders will help form the basis of a sustainable, competitive city, in which a business’s ability to thrive is matched by its citizens ability to work and live affordably. SOURCE (1) https://www.internations.org/expat-insider/2019/the-best-and-worst-cities-for-expats-39894 (2) https://www.owenreilly.ie/media

// 5


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Dublin Max 13.7%

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

Dublin

Q3 19

Q1 19

Q3 18

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

0%

Q1 12

2%

Q3 11

The level of employment in Dublin continued to grow in Q3 2019, climbing to 718,300, the highest number of people employed on record (+3.1% YoY). This constitutes an additional 2,900 people to the workforce in Q3. Dublin’s labour market continues to edge closer to full employment with the Q3 2019 Dublin unemployment rate of 4.4% now at its lowest level since Q1 2005 (-0.7 percentage points YoY).

National Max 16%

16%

Q1 11

source: cso labour force survey (lfs). dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

18%

Q3 10

dublin unemployment (sa) year on year change % points (sa) dublin employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)

q3 '19 4.4% -0.7 718 +21.8

dublin & national unemployment rate % (sa)

Q1 10

dublin unemployment rate at lowest level since 2005

National

source: cso lfs. dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

employment growth in financial services rises by 18.9% yoy services employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa) industry & constr, employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)

q3 ' 19 628.0 22.8 82.1 0.9

source: cso lfs. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm. note: this series has been re-calibrated since the last issue

Growth in employment in Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Activities continued on an upward trajectory in Q3 2019 with a YoY increase of 18.9%. Close to 65,000 people are now employed in the sector, the highest level on record. Information and Communication also recorded its highest level of employment in Q3 2019 at 71,700 (+8.3% YoY). On the contrary, employment growth in Construction appears to have slowed in Q3 2019 with YoY growth down to 2.6%.

6 //

employment by broad sector '000s (sa) 800

Max: 710,060

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Q3 10

Q3 11

Q3 12

Q3 13

Private Sector Services

Q3 14

Q3 15

Public sector

Q3 16

Q3 17

Industry

source: cso. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm note: individual sector values may not sum to total due to rounding

Q3 18

Q3 19

Construction


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS growth in house prices falls for fourth consecutive month nov ' 19 property price index dublin 106.2 -0.7 year on year % change property price index national excl dublin 103.6 +3.6 year on year % change source: cso.

120 Dublin Max 107.7

110 100 90 80 70

average dublin rents continue on strong upward trajectory q3 ' 19 1,762 +110

60

Dublin

Nov 19

Nov 18

May 19

Nov 17

May 18

May 17

Nov 16

Nov 15

May 16

Nov 14

May 15

May 14

Nov 13

Nov 12

May 13

Nov 11

May 12

40

Nov 10

50

May 11

Dublin property price inflation has recorded four consecutive months of YoY decline between August and November 2019. This is the longest spell of deflation in house prices since late 2012 and marks a considerable stabilisation in the housing market after several years of strong upward momentum. At a national level, while prices continue to trend upwards, the rate of growth is greatly subdued (+3.6% YoY, Nov 2019) compared to the double-digit rates recorded just over 12 months ago.

National excl. Dublin

source: cso.

residential rents € €1,850 Dublin Max: €1,762

€1,750 €1,650 €1,550 €1,450 €1,350 €1,250 €1,150 €1,050 €950 €850 €750

Dublin

Greater Dublin Area (excl. Dublin)

Q3 19

Q1 19

Q3 18

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

Q1 13

Q3 12

€550

Q1 12

€650 Q3 11

While the rate of rental price inflation continues to taper, average Dublin rents rose to their highest level in Q3 2019 and now stand at €1,762 (+6.7% YoY). Standardised average monthly rents are now in excess of €1000 in Dublin, the GDA (incl. Louth), Galway and Cork. In the GDA (excl. Dublin), rents stood at €1,247 in Q3 (+9% YoY) while the national growth rate, beyond Dublin and the GDA, registered double digits for the first time since Q2 2016 (+10.5% YoY).

Q1 11

source: rtb.

Q3 10

dublin avg residential rent € per month year on year change €

residential property price index (2005 = 100)

Outside GDA

source: rtb. note: gda (ex dublin) is kildare, meath and wicklow.

commencements return to positive growth in q3 2019

dublin housing commencements & completions 2,800 Commencements Max: 2,648

2,000

1,600 1,200

800

Completions

Q3 19

Q1 19

Q3 18

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

0

Q1 13

400

Q3 12

The Dublin housing market expanded in Q3 2019, with the number of commencements continuing to exceed completions. Recovering quickly from a period of sharp negative growth in Q2, both completions and commencements returned to positive YoY and QoQ growth. 1,892 houses were completed in Q3 2019, meaning 5,184 homes were added to the stock in the first nine months of 2019 .

Completions Max: 1,887

Q1 12

source: dhplg, cso note: house commencement data is not seasonally adjusted

2,400

Q3 11

q3 ' 19 2,648 564 1,892 57

Q1 11

total house commencements year on year change total house completions year on year change

Commencements

source: dhplg.

// 7


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS stagnation in dublin office rent growth continues into q4 2019

130

City Centre Max = 118.2 South Suburbs Max = 118

120 110 100 90 80 70 60

City Centre

Q4 19

Q2 19

Q4 18

Q2 18

Q4 17

Q2 17

Q4 16

Q2 16

Q4 15

Q2 15

Q4 14

Q2 14

Q4 13

Q2 13

Q4 12

Q2 12

Q4 11

Q2 11

Q4 10

40

Q2 10

50

Q4 09

Office rents in Dublin’s City Centre have now recorded a fifth consecutive quarter of zero annual change. The index of City Centre office rents has remained unchanged at 118.2 for the past two years with the last increase occurring in Q4 2017. Following a four-point increase in the index for Dublin’s South Suburbs in Q2 2019, rents have remained stable at 118 points, representing a 3.5% increase on Q2 2018 rents.

Q2 09

source: CBRE

Q4 08

city centre office rent index year on year % change south suburbS office rent index year on year % change

q4 '19 118.2 0.0 118.0 +3.5

dublin office rents index (2006 = 100)

South Suburbs

source: cbre.

office vacancy in dublin 2/4 falls to lowest level on record

dublin office space vacancy rates % 30% Dublin Suburbs Max = 25%

vacancy rate % dublin 2/4 year on year change % points vacancy rate % dublin suburbs year on year change % points

q4 '19 3.9 -0.4 6.6 -0.1

Dublin 2/4 Max = 20.6%

25%

20%

15%

source: cbre.

19.5 million additional trips on Dublin's public transport in 2019 public transport million trips (sa) year on year change million trips (sa)

q4 '19 62.6 +5.0

10%

Dublin 2/4

Q4 19

Q2 19

Q4 18

Q2 18

Q4 17

Q2 17

Q4 16

Q2 16

Q4 15

Q2 15

Q4 14

Q2 14

Q4 13

Q2 13

Q4 12

Q2 12

Q4 11

Q2 11

Q4 10

Q2 10

0%

Q4 09

5%

Q2 09

Office vacancy in Dublin 2/4 district continued a downward trend in Q4 2019 with vacancy falling to 3.9% from 4.3% at the end of 2018. This represents the lowest vacancy of office space in the district in over 10 years. Office vacancy rates in Dublin’s suburbs fell marginally YoY in Q4 2019 (-0.1pp) to stand at 6.6%. During 2019 Dublin’s suburbs accounted for 22% of overall office take-up in the capital with the majority located in the south suburbs (71%) followed by west suburbs (18%).

Dublin Suburbs

source: cbre.

public transport million trips (sa) 70 60 50

source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

A total of 243.4 million public transport trips took place in Dublin in 2019. This represents an increase of 19.5 million journeys (+8.7%) on 2018. Passenger trips on all four modes of public transport rose, with the greatest boost on the Luas with an annual increase of 15%. Bus Éireann also recorded double-digit growth in passenger numbers (+12%) while trips on Dublin City Bus and Irish Rail rose by 7.8% and 4% respectively.

40 30 20 10 0

Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19

Bus Éireann

Dublin City Bus

source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm

8 //

Irish Rail

Luas


Fe b r u a r y 2 0 2 0

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

TM

Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q4 2019*

+3.3%

+3.7%

OVERALL SALES

+3.0% NECESSITIES

OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND

-0.7% DISCRETIONARY

+5.6% HOUSEHOLD GOODS

+8.7% ECOMMERCE

+2.0% ENTERTAINMENT

*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| February 2020

DESPITE EASING RETAIL SALES GROWTH REMAINS SOLID IN DUBLIN TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)

126

130

+3.3% YoY

125 120

121

+2.8% YoY

115 110 105

DUBLIN

Retail spending in the Dublin economy continues to register strong growth with a 3.3% YoY (SA*) increase recorded in Q4 2019. Throughout 2019, the annual growth in retail spend in Dublin has averaged +4.2% compared to an average annual growth rate of +5.6% in 2018. Notwithstanding that, retail spending growth in Dublin exceeded that at a National level (incl. Dublin) in Q4 2019 as has been the case since Q1 2017. On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.5% QoQ in Q4 2019. This marks a slowdown in the rate of growth in recent quarters following QoQ growth of 2.3% and 0.6% in Q2 and Q3 respectively. Quarterly growth has proven to be volatile in both Dublin and Nationally, and so it is difficult to point to a downward trend at this stage.

Q4 19

Q3 19

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

100

IRELAND

Retail sales growth rates eased across Ireland in Q4 2019 with sales in Dublin up 3.3% YoY. However this was partially driven by difficult comparisons with Q4 2018 when sales surged. While the growth rates in tourist spending also appear more modest, when taken in the context of strong growth in 2018, the growth in Q4 was solid. While the US economy remains on a solid footing, it is reasonable to expect more positive tourist spending as we enter 2020. Michael McNamara

GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD

DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)

+3.3%

126.1

+0.5%

YoY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE

QoQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX

Q4 2019

100 = Q1 2014

Q4 2019

METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.

2

*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

SALES OF DISCRETIONARY GOODS CONTRACT

RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY

123.7

130

-0.7% YoY

125 120 115

115.9

110

-1.3% YoY

105 100

Q4 19

Q3 19

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

95

IRELAND

| February 2020

The final quarter of 2019 marked the first quarter in which negative YoY growth was recorded in retail spend on Discretionary goods in both Dublin (-0.7%) and Nationally (-1.3%). However, this was the only component of total sales to register negative annual growth in the quarter. Household goods sales, which are generally correlated with consumer sentiment, grew by 5.6% YoY in Q4 2019 in Dublin. Nationally the rate of growth was more subdued at 1.4% YoY. Online sales continue to register strong positive growth amongst Dublin (+8.7% YoY) and National (+4.3% YoY) consumers.

DUBLIN

Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.

METHOD: ECOMMERCE

RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES

220

+8.7% YoY

200

124.7

130

194.9

210

+3.0% YoY

125

190 120

180 170

177.2

160

+4.3% YoY

150 140 130

115

118.5 +3.8% YoY

110 105

120 110

100

100

IRELAND

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.

Q4 19

Q3 19

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS

149.9 +2.0% YoY

160

DUBLIN

Grocery: all food and beverage stores.

RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 170

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

95 Q1 14

Q4 19

Q3 19

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

90

180

161.5 +5.6% YoY

170 160

150

150

140

140 130

135.5

120

+0.8% YoY

110

147.2

130

+1.4% YoY

120

IRELAND

Hotels, restaurants and bars.

*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM

DUBLIN

IRELAND

Q4 19

Q3 19

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q4 19

Q3 19

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

90 Q3 14

90 Q2 14

100

Q1 14

100

Q1 14

110

DUBLIN

Household furniture, electronics and hardware.

3


TM

DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse

| February 2020

GROWTH IN TOURISM SPENDING EASED FOLLOWING STRONG GROWTH IN Q4 2018 Annual growth in tourism spend in Dublin was subdued in the final quarter of 2019, registering YoY growth of 3.7%*. This follows growth of 8% and 6.5% in Q2 and Q3 respectively and double-digit growth throughout 2018. The average annual growth rate in 2019 was 7.9% compared to 13.4% in 2018. The rate of YoY growth across important markets like the US and China has been declining in recent quarters. In the Chinese market tourism spend registered 19.1% YoY growth in Q4 2018 compared to 4.1% in the final quarter of 2019, while the rate of growth in the US market has been declining since Q2 2018 (16.1% YoY) and now stands at 12.4%. The UK market continues to struggle amid Brexit fears and exchange rate volatility. Spending in this market registered -0.4% YoY growth in Q4 2019 and is the third consecutive quarter of decline.

A similar narrative emerges at a National level with 4% YoY growth recorded in Q4 2019 following a period of double-digit growth throughout 2018. Positive annual growth in the UK market may indicate that UK tourists are finding better value for money in locations outside of Dublin. Similar to the situation in Dublin, the US market is the main driver of growth nationally, with annual spend up 9.9%. Recently published data from the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation identified that tourism spend across Ireland in 2019, estimated at €9.3 million, was down 1% on 2018. This marked the first decline in the value of tourist spending in eight years. Brexit, increased business costs and a return to the 13.5% VAT rate were cited as reasons for the decline.

DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q4 2019 (SA) OVERALL

+4.0% +3.7%

+0.4% -0.4%

+9.9% +12.4%

+0.4% +1.9%

-0.2% +3.7%

+7.6% +4.1%

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

IRELAND

IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND

DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100

220

240

210

230 220

200

210

173.8

190

180.8

200

180

190

170

180

160

170

150

160

140

150 140

130

130

120

120

110

4

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

DUBLIN

Q1 2014 = 100

100

YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN

110 All

UK

USA

Germany

France

China

100

All

UK

USA

Germany

France

Q4 2016

Q4 2017

Q4 2016

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

Q4 2019

Q4 2018

Q4 2019

China

*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM


DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS dublin airport passengers at 7 year high in q3 2019

8,500

q3 '19 8,251 331

source: cso.

Max: 8.25 million

8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000

Q3 19

Q1 19

Q3 18

Q1 18

Q3 17

Q1 17

Q3 16

Q1 16

Q3 15

Q1 15

Q3 14

Q1 14

Q3 13

4,000

Q1 13

4,500

Q3 12

Passenger numbers through Dublin Airport continue to set new records with 8.25 million people (+4.2% YoY) passing through the airport in the third quarter of 2019. In the first three quarters of the year a total of 24.5 million passengers passed through Dublin Airport, up 5.4% on the same period in 2018 (23.3 million).

Q1 12

total passengers '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)

dublin airport arrivals '000s (sa)

source: cso.

close to 1,500 hotel rooms added to dublin market in 2019 hotel occupancy rate % (sa) year on year change %age point index of hotel room supply (sa, july 2013=100)

year on year change %

DEC '19 81.8% -1.2 114.5 6.7%

7 6 5 4 3 2

Total Tonnage

Imports

Q3 19

Exports

source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

dublin hotel average daily rates (sa) €150

115

Maximum: €146

€140

110

€130

105 €120

source: str global. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

100 €110

95

Dec 19

Nov 19

Oct 19

Sep 19

Jul 19

Aug 19

Jun 19

Apr 19

Average Daily Rate €

May 19

Mar 19

Jan 19

Feb 19

Dec 18

Nov 18

Oct 18

Sep 18

Aug 18

Jul 18

Jun 18

Apr 18

May 18

Mar 18

€90

Feb 18

€100

Jan 18

The Average Daily Rate (ADR) of hotel rooms in Dublin has been following a downward trend since mid-2018. The ARD stood at €137 in December 2019 having peaked at €146 in August 2018. This decline is linked to several factors including – growing supply, softening demand and the headwind created by a higher VAT rate on hospitality. In 2019, 1,461 new hotel rooms were added to the Dublin market. This compares to an additional 829 rooms added to the market in the previous 12 months.

Q2 19

Q1 19

Q4 18

Q3 18

Q2 18

Q1 18

Q4 17

Q3 17

Q2 17

Q1 17

Q4 16

Q3 16

Q2 16

Q1 16

Q4 15

Q3 15

Q2 15

Q1 15

Q4 14

Q3 14

Q2 14

Q1 14

0

Q4 13

1 Q3 13

The volatility in throughput at Dublin Port has persisted into Q3 2019 with two consecutive quarters of QoQ decline. The last time a similar trend was identified in the data was in early 2012. Q3 2019 also represents the first YoY decline in throughput (-1.6%) at the Port since Q2 2012. This decline is driven by an annual reduction in both export and import activity at the Port, -1.7% and -1.4% YoY respectively.

8

Q2 13

source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm. note: imports and exports may not add to total throughput due to seasonal adjustment and rounding.

Max: 9.9 million tonnes

9

Q1 13

q3 ' 19 3.74 -0.05 5.74 -0.10

10

Q4 12

dublin port exports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa) dublin port imports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa)

dublin port tonnage million tonnes (sa)

Q3 12

throughput at dublin port posts first yoy decline since q2 2012

90

Index of Supply

source: str global. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.

// 9


DUBLIN IHS MARKIT PMI output growth picks up in q4

overall ihs markit pmi (sa) 65

dublin

national excl. dublin

60

q3 2019

53.7

49.6

55

year on year change

-4.1 0.7

-5.4 -2.4

50

overall ihs markit pmi

quarter on quarter change

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

45

marginal expansion in new orders

40 35 30

q3 2019

51.2

50.5

55

year on year change

-6.9 -0.6

-4.5 -1.4

Q4 19

Q4 18

Q4 17

Q4 16

Q4 15

Q4 14

Q4 13

45 40 35 30

slowest rise in employment in current cycle

Q4 19

Q4 18

Q4 17

Q4 16

Q4 15

Q4 14

Q4 13

Q4 12

Q4 11

Q4 10

Q4 09

Q4 08

Q4 07

Q4 06

Q4 05

Q4 04

Q4 03

increasing rate of contraction ▼

Q4 02

25

Dublin

National excl. Dublin

overall pmi employment growth (sa) 65

dublin

national excl. dublin

60

q3 2019

50.3

51.5

55

year on year change

-4.7 -1.9

-3 -1.3

50

quarter on quarter change

Q4 12

50

Q4 01

Although new orders continued to rise in Q4, the rate of growth was marginal and softened to the weakest since Q3 2012. The rate of expansion in new business has now slowed in three successive quarters. The Rest of Ireland also recorded a slowdown in new order growth, with the increase in Dublin outpacing that outside the capital.

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

65 60

employment growth

Q4 11

Q4 10

Q4 09

Q4 07

Q4 06

Q4 05

Q4 04

Q4 08

National excl. Dublin

overall pmi new orders (sa)

national excl. dublin

quarter on quarter change

Q4 03

Dublin

dublin

new orders

increasing rate of contraction ▼

Q4 02

25

Q4 01

The latest Dublin PMI data pointed to a slightly faster expansion of business activity in the final quarter of the year compared with Q3, consistent with output increasing at a solid pace overall. This contrasted with a reduction in output across the Rest of Ireland. The improved performance of Dublin was driven by all three monitored sectors. Services posted the fastest expansion, while construction activity registered a solid rise despite the rate of growth softening at the end of the year. Manufacturing returned to growth in Q4, following three consecutive quarters of decline.

increasing rate of growth ▲

50 = no change

45 40 35 30

Dublin

about The Dublin Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI) series is produced by IHS Markit Economics, an independent research company that produces highly-regarded surveys of business conditions in nations around the world www.markit.com

National excl. Dublin

Q4 19

Q4 18

Q4 17

Q4 16

Q4 15

Q4 14

Q4 13

Q4 12

Q4 11

Q4 10

Q4 09

Q4 08

Q4 07

Q4 06

Q4 05

Q4 04

Q4 03

increasing rate of contraction ▼

Q4 02

25

Q4 01

As has been the case for the past seven years, Dublin companies continued to increase their staffing levels in the final quarter of 2019. That said, the rate of job creation was marginal and was at its slowest in the current cycle of rising employment. The increase in staffing levels in Dublin was slower than that seen across the Rest of Ireland, where the rate of job creation also softened but to a lesser extent.


DUBLIN’S INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS

DUBLIN 8TH IN THE WORLD FOR CAREER OPPORTUNITIES AND WORK-LIFE BALANCE Internationally published benchmarks are a useful means of measuring a city’s performance relative to its peers, and recent indicators for Dublin confirm the city’s strong showing across a range of dimensions (see table below). At the end of 2019 the ECA International’s annual Cost of Living Survey was published and showed that the cost of living in many European cities has fallen on foot of a weakened euro, relative to the dollar, and slower economic growth. While Central London has fallen out of the top 100, Dublin falls to 87th having dropped ten places. This leaves Ireland’s capital ahead of all UK cities included in the ranking – Central London (140th), Edinburgh (156th) and Manchester (162nd). The survey, which compares a basket of like-for-like consumer goods and services placed Dublin 13th in the top 20 most expensive European cities for expatriates. The issue of affordability in Dublin is also drawn out in InterNations Expat City

ranking 2019 finding that Dublin comes last in the world (82 cities) in the Finance and Housing subcategory. The situation in the housing market is having a particularly negative impact on the ranking with 88% of respondents rating the affordability of housing negatively, compared to the global average of 44%. Some 86% of expats also reported difficulty in finding a place to live versus 32% globally. Dublin also ranks badly in the subcategories for Local Cost of Living (76th) and the Quality of Urban Living (71st). Dublin receives the best result in the Urban Work Life sub category (8th) with 80% of respondents happy with job security, and the city ranks 4th in the world for career opportunities behind only Boston, San Francisco and Prague. Dublin has ranked 42nd out of 100 international cities in the Resonance World’s Best Cities 2020 Index. The index, which is based on six core categories of place, product, people, prosperity, programming

and promotion, ranked London, New York and Paris in the top three respectively. Dublin’s position in the Index was boosted by its weighting in the prosperity (wealth, prosperity and innovation) and programming (culture, nightlife) categories. The Legatum Institute’s annual global Prosperity Index analyses the performance of 167 nations across 65 policy-focused elements. The 2019 Index sees Ireland’s position unchanged from 2018 in 12th. The county ranks third strongest for economic quality, the most improved category since 2009. Amongst the 12 categories considered Ireland is ranked weakest for its investment environment (23rd) and market access and infrastructure (23rd). Ireland’s position in the 2019 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking has improved considerably in the past year. The country now ranks seventh in the world. Improved business conditions and a strong economy were noted as the key drivers for the improvement.

D U B L I N ' S L AT E S T I N T E R N AT I O N A L R A N K I N G S SOURCE

BENCHMARK CRITERIA

YEAR

RANKING

CHANGE‡

▲ ▼ ▼ ▲

Mercer Quality of Living City Ranking

Environmental / socio - economic

2019

33

Mercer Cost of Living City Ranking

Cost of consumer goods and services

2019

43

European Regional Economic Growth Index

Medium-term economic growth prospects

2019

9

2019

7

2019

13**

2019

1

2019

38

▲ -

2019

35

2019

5

-

2019

82

2019

12

-

2019

21*

2019

37

▲ -

2020

42

-

IMD World Competitiveness Ranking 2019 ECA International Cost of Living Survey 2019 EY Financial Services Brexit Tracker Global Financial Centres Index Global Talent Competitiveness Index fDi Fintech Locations of the Future 2019/2020 InterNations Expat City ranking 2019

The Legatum Prosperity Index 2019 FT European Business School Rankings 2019 QS Best Student Cities Resonance World’s Best Cities 2020

332 competitiveness criteria related to competitiveness, digital competitiveness and talent Basket of like-for-like consumer goods and services in 475 locations Financial services considering or confirmed relocation Includes economic, legal, sustainability and competitiveness indicators Regulatory, market and business/labour landscape, external and internal openness, education and access to growth opportunities and, sustainability and lifestyle FDI performance, connectivity, cost effectiveness, economic potential, innovation & attractiveness Four topical indices derived from 25 aspects of urban like abroad – Quality of urban living, getting settled, urban work life, and finance and housing Safety and security, governance, personal freedom, investment environment, enterprise conditions, market access and infrastructure, economic quality, living conditions, health, education and natural environment Business school quality University rankings, student mix, desirability, employer activity, affordability, student view Place, people, product, prosperity, programming and promotion

*TCD. **Top 20 European cities. ‡change on previous publication of the relevant benchmark. an upward-pointing arrow denotes an improvement.

// 11


COMPETITIVENESS STRATEGIES

SMART DUBLIN EXPLORES HOW AI AND SOCIAL MEDIA CAN HELP IMPROVE THE CITY REGION LAURA KIRCHNER

PROJECT MANAGER, CITIBEATS

Dublin City Council, through the Smart Dublin initiative, is collaborating with Citibeats to better understand how citizens experience the city region. Through social media analysis, local authorities can gain important insights into how citizens feel about key civic issues. Smart Dublin, an initiative of the four Dublin Local Authorities, uses innovative technologies and new ways of working to improve quality of life in the city region. Smart Dublin works collaboratively with technology providers, researchers, and other public sector bodies, to solve local challenges. But what is the best way to identify local challenges? The answer: listen to what local citizens have to say! We live in the age of information where, globally, more people have mobile phones than have access to toilet facilities. Sharing our thoughts, opinions, complaints and concerns daily, through multiple digital channels, has become common practice for huge swathes of the world’s population. When we consider the sheer scale of the information that is communicated online, the non-stop flow can appear overwhelming. While any information one might need or want is out there, sorting through this information, identifying what is relevant and discerning meaningful insights is where it gets tricky. With the help of artificial intelligence, this process has become more

12 //

and more possible. Smart Dublin has teamed up with Citibeats to explore how local authorities can tune in to what citizens are saying on social media and use this feedback to inform their work. Citibeats is a social intelligence and speech analytics platform. Using natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning, Citibeats organizes unstructured data - in this case, the opinions of citizens expressed via social media, in an anonymous and aggregate manner - and uses Arifical Intelligence (AI) models to categorize and decipher the data. Data is presented via visual dashboards from which insights can be used by local governments and decision makers as action items to improve city life. Citibeats provides an important tool for local authorities, but it is important to note that these insights are indicative only of the key trends and sentiments expressed by a cohort of citizens who use social media. Local authorities employ other methods to ensure truly inclusive citizen engagement.


AI AND SOCIAL MEDIA APPLIED TO NATURAL DISASTER MITIGATION AND CONSUMER PROTECTION AI and text analytics can also be applied to solve other challenges, such as natural disaster mitigation and regulation and consumer protection in the financial sector. After the devastating flood in Japan in 2018, Citibeats teamed up with NTT Data, a technology company, and the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to interpret social media activity after a natural disaster impacted three main cities in northern Japan. The machine-learning algorithms instantly interpreted online conversations to reveal the issues that were of most concern. What was discovered was that each city had different priorities. While access to healthcare was the primary concern for two of the cities, food and mobility were key in the other. By knowing where to focus resources first through this data-driven account of people’s needs in real time, government was able to allocate aid where it was needed most. Most important was the increased speed of which data was translated into action - 5,000 damaged infrastructure reports from the 2018 Japan floods were extracted 21 days earlier than it would have taken without the use of this technology. In Kenya, Citibeats played a major role in strengthening the financial services sector’s regulation. As these services became more digital so did the consumers’ methods of complaining. It was impossible to manually process, let alone address, the thousands of reports of abuse that were flooding in daily in an effective manner. Topics were identified by the Financial Sector Deepening Kenya, (FSD), as investigation-worthy such as scams and unfair charges. Citibeats’ AI was trained to recognize these events in all text-based data found online and alert regulators when red-flag patterns were detected. Not only did FSD Kenya report that the Citibeats alerts received were 80-90% relevant for investigation, but they also found that consumer complaints were flagged 45 days earlier than before the technology was put in place. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR SOCIAL GOOD Legitimate worries regarding the use of AI and technology have arisen in recent years. Stories of misuse, bias and ineffective

practices have caused concern amongst citizens and civil society organisations. But machine learning, when applied ethically and properly, can provide major opportunities for improvements and advancement. It has proven to be unequivocally faster and more efficient than humans at identifying, processing, classifying and executing certain tasks. This is immense power that, when harnessed for social good, can greatly improve society. With the Smart Dublin project, the goal is to develop a new tool that will help local authorities to better understand how citizens feel about key civic issues. These valuable insights will support decisionmakers to ensure that civic efforts and policy reflect the needs of citizens and communities. It is time to harness the power of advanced technology, AI and social media for good, and to improve quality of life for citizens and communities.

Machine learning has proven to be unequivocally faster and more efficient than humans at identifying, processing, classifying and executing certain tasks. This is immense power that, when harnessed for social good, can greatly improve society.” // 13


SPECIAL REPORT

SUSTAINABILITY - A PATHWAY TO STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM

AIDEEN O’HORA FOUNDING DIRECTOR OF SUSTAINABILITYWORKS

This month, the first in a new decade, we’ve seen a step change in ambition to act on sustainability issues, such as climate change and resource efficiency This month, the first in a new decade, we have seen a step change in ambition to act on sustainability issues, such as climate change and resource efficiency. The theme at Davos this year was Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World, and with this in mind participants were asked to consider pathways to transition the global economy from “shareholder capitalism” to “stakeholder capitalism.” This is a radical shift from the long-held belief that the only responsibility a business has is to make a profit for its shareholders. Now they are being asked to re-define their purpose to create long-term value for stakeholders – customers, suppliers, employees and communities. As awareness of climate change continues to grow, companies are rapidly becoming more aware of the environmental and social impacts of their activities and are searching for ways to do things differently. Leading companies have realised that by integrating sustainable practices in their business, not only are they doing the right thing for the environment but they are also creating long-term economic and social value. A strong example of how companies are now embracing sustainability is Microsoft’s new strategy which has been heralded as

Companies are being asked to create long-term value for all stakeholders” 14 //

a game changer for corporate sustainability. Going beyond typical reactionary sustainability targets, the company has pledged to be carbon negative by 2030 and to remove all historic carbon by 2050. To achieve their commitment they will empower their entire supply chain to reduce and remove carbon, as well as applying an internal carbon price. Like most companies, the vast majority of Microsoft’s climate impact is felt in their value chain. This announcement will be felt along their supply chain, and across all locations – including Ireland. It is no longer a question of whether SMEs should invest in sustainability, but how to ensure it is embedded within their strategy so they can continue to work with large customers like Microsoft. SME’s wanting to start their sustainability journey should adopt the following four steps: 1. Assess the business’ environmental footprint; 2. Set targets to reduce impact, 3. Act to reduce impact; 4. Evidence and communicate progress to stakeholders; As we enter into the ‘decade of delivery,’ it is clear that large corporates have ambitious sustainability plans. There are huge opportunities for Irish companies who integrate sustainable practices in their business. For businesses who haven’t started to truly integrate sustainability, you are already being left behind. At SustainabilityWorks, we believe sustainability offers huge opportunities for growth and innovation. We work with businesses to develop and deliver strategies, programmes and partnerships that unlock commercial opportunities and enable positive action at scale. We make sustainability simple. We make it actionable. We make it work. www.sustainabilityworks.ie.


ECONOMIC SCORECARD

DUBLIN: ECONOMIC SCORECARD FEB 2020 Note: These "petrol gauge" charts present the performance of the particular indicator relative to a range of performances from most positive (green) to least positive (red). Each gauge presents the latest value compared to the peak value and the trough value over the last decade (except for public transport trips which cover the past 5 years and housing completions which cover the past 6 years). The Commercial Property gauges are red at the high and low extremes, in recognition of the undesirability of rents that are either too high or too low as well as vacancy rates.

economy ihs markit business pmi q4 2019

52

unemployment rate q3 2019

56

48

8 59

53.7

44

mastercard spendingpulse sales index q4 2019

111

10

6

12

4.4

63

3 month moving average (sa)

116

106

121

126

101

14

% (sa)

index (2014 = 100) (SA)

transport airport arrivals q3 2019

6,130

6,830

5,420

4,710

seaport cargo q3 2019

7.8 7,540

8,251

8.4

7.1

9.5

54.4

50.4 9.1

6.4

000's/quarter (SA)

public transport trips q3 2019

9.8

million tonnes/quarter (sa)

46.3

42.2

58.5

62.6

million trips/quarter (sa)

residential property average residential rents q3 2019

1,280

1,440

1,100

952

residential property price index nov 2019

1,762

65

97

106.2

55

â‚Ź/quarter

1,200

800

87

76 1,600

housing completions q3 2019

108

500

106

index 2005 = 100

1,500

1,892 units/quarter

commercial property dublin city centre office rent q4 2019

460

540

380

296

dublin 2/4 office vacancy rate q4 2019

15 620

dublin suburbs office vacancy rate q4 2019

9

25

700

3.9

â‚Ź/sq.m.

%

17

14

20 10

30

21

6.2

25

%

sources: cso, pmi markit; seaport cargo dublin port; public transport nta; residential rents prtb; commercial property cbre research

// 15


IRELAND’S #1 INNOVATION EVENT

1st April 2020 Convention Centre Dublin

Join 1600+ business and technology leaders to explore the business implications of emerging technologies Explore the innovations driving ∂ The Future of Connectivity… next-gen IoT propelled by 5G ∂ A Future Shaped by Climate… the big carbon challenge ∂ The Business of Health… predictive and personalised ∂ The Reality of an AI Future… the all-pervasive impact of AI ∂ A Secure Future… data & information - tech’s big job ∂ Future Business… a new world of innovation and disruption

Who attends FutureScope Ireland’s hottest start-ups and scale-ups

|

tech multinationals | research community

| investor community | innovation seekers

Topics of relevance

| disruption | collaboration | convergence | 5G | smart cities | artificial intelligence | smart data | IoT | energy | digital transformation | robotics | medtech | cybersecurity | funding & scaling | cleantec | agritech | AR & VR | animation Innovation

SECURE YOUR EARLY BIRD TICKET TODAY AT

Supported by

U.S. Embassy

FUTURESCOPE.IE

WHERE BUSINESS GETS DONE!

FutureScope is brought to you by

www.futurescope.ie

www.dublinbic.ie

Profile for 256 Media

DEM - February 2020  

DEM - February 2020  

Profile for 256media