INFERENTIAL FOCUS Cosima F. Barone
Vol. XII - Issue #223
May 27, 2013
The idea is there, locked inside. All you have to do is remove the excess stone. Michelangelo
Inside This Issue: Investors Hit The “Panic” Button
Weeks go by, but central banks remain the focus of investors’ joy and concerns. A combination of weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing data (49.6 in May, down from 50.4 in April) , which sent alarm bells ringing especially in the Asia Pacific region, and Chairman Bernanke’s Congressional testimony injected doses of uncertainty into the markets. But, markets do not like uncertainty.
In The Rear-View Mirror: INFERENTIAL FOCUS - May 2003 Not much seems to have changed in the last ten years!
Can The World Financial System Be Reformed?
One can never assume that having attended once a CIFA Forum, he/she has seen them all! CIFA has been consistent throughout the years, since its foundation over a decade ago in Geneva, in identifying the problems bugging the world finance and in attempting courageously to find solutions.
A Glance At World’s Insightful News
IN FOCUS: ARGENTINA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB), CROATIA, UNITED KINGDOM, UKRAINE, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, INDIA, AUSTRALIA. UKRAINE: The European Union’s wish to integrate Ukraine to the bloc is intensifying, even though the deadline to meet EU terms for signing an association agreement was postponed from May to November 2013. Sweden, Poland and Lithuania are the main proponents of bringing Ukraine closer to the EU bloc and away from the Russian orbit.
I nvestors H it T he “P anic ” B utton Weeks go by, but central banks remain the focus of investors’ joy and concerns. A combination of weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing data (49.6 in May, down from 50.4 in April) , which sent alarm bells ringing especially in the Asia Pacific region, and Chairman Bernanke’s Congressional testimony injected doses of uncertainty into the markets. But, markets do not like uncertainty. In Europe, financially markets keep being worried by the economy’s inability to gain any real traction. At 47.7, the composite output index (both manufacturing and services altogether) , although up 0.8 points from its April reading, was still well short of the key 50 growth threshold. Neither the manufacturing, nor the service sector showed better results: PMI for the former (47.8) and the latter (47.5) remained below the “neutral” 50 mark. The U.S. manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) , however, remained virtually unchanged (51.9) from its April’s 52.0 reading, showing that this sector continues to expand albeit at a marginally slower rate. Global financial markets remained oblivious of major concerns until, recently. In fact, the overall equity performance data for the past 7 weeks and for the year -- see table on page -- were overall extremely positive. Notwithstanding, investors hit the “panic” button last week, thus setting up a downdraft in stocks of a quite remarkable
Next Issue Mid-June 2013
www.finarc.ch
INFERENTIAL FOCUS M arkets
IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 2/17
at a glance ( close
W orld Global Titans 50 $ A merica
P rice 214.84
as of
M ay 24, 2013):
% 7- wks +5.05
YE-2012 194.97
% YTD
T echnical I nsight
+10.19
Index peaked in March at 219; positive Golden Cross; upside target 246; risk to 198-186
P rice
% 7- wks
YE-2012
% YTD
15,303.10
+5.07
13,104.14
+16.78
DJIA’s momentum fading, despite DMAs Golden Cross; upside target 15500 met; risk to 13300
US-S&P 500
1,649.60
+6.20
1,426.19
+15.66
SPX’s momentum fading;, despite Golden Cross still hints to higher prices; target 1680 met; risk to 1430
US- NASDAQ
3,459.14
+7.97
3,019.51
+14.56
Tech index peaked at 3532; 50-day MA support expected around 3300; L/T upside target 3650
US-Wilshire 5000
17,392.84
+6.21
14,995.11
+15.99
Index lower on fading momentum; L/T upside target around 18000+; downside risk to 15100
Canada-S&P/TSX Com
12,667.22
+2.72
12,433.53
+1.88
Indexsurged since Mid-May; DMAs Dead Cross looming; L/T target 13.8K; risk to 11.8K
Mexico-IPC
40,521.27
-6.30
43,705.83
-7.29
Corrective trend accelerated; DMAs support failed; DMAs Dead Cross looming; downside risk to 37.5K
Brazil-Bovespa
56,406.21
+2.46
60,952.08
-7.46
Attempting to bottom around 52.0K lows; negative DMAs Dead Cross; downside risk to 52.5K
E urope
P rice
% 7- wks
YE-2012
% YTD
T echnical I nsight
EU-DJ STOXX 50 E
2,764.29
+6.92
2,635.93
+4.87
Corrective trend after a 2840 peak on fading momentum; downside risk to 2490-2430
UK-FTSE 100
6,654.34
+6.47
5,897.81
+12.83
Sudden peak at 6875; positive Golden Cross; L/T target 7000+; downside risk to 6250
France-CAC 40
3,956.79
+8.01
3,641.07
+8.67
Index peaked in May at 4058; momentum fading; potential downside risk to 3800-3600
Germany-DAX
8,305.32
+8.44
7,612.39
+9.10
Index suddenly peaked at 8557; momentum fading; potential downside risk to 7800-7450
Spain-IBEX 35
8,264.60
+5.98
8,167.50
+1.19
Index peaked at 8669, lower high, third in a row; support at 200-DMA; downside risk to 8100-7550
Italy-FTSE/MIB
16,896.81
+10.80
16,273.38
+27.30
Index peaked after surging from April lows; Golden Cross effect fading; downside risk to 16.4K
Poland-WIG 20
2,384.58
+1.63
2,582.98
-7.68
Index is attempting to revocer from April lows; potentially challenging the 2500 target
Switzerland-SMI
8,168.78
+6.91
6,822.44
+19.73
Mild weakness after strong trend since January; L/T target 8200; DMAs Golden Cross; risk to 7500
Russia- RTS Index $
1,391.59
-1.55
1,530.41
-9.07
Index bumped into 200-DMA resistance at each recovery attempt of 2013; risk to 1370-1320
A sia & O ceania
P rice
% 7- wks
YE-2012
% YTD
T echnical I nsight
China-Shanghai Comp.
2,288.53
+2.84
2,269.13
+0.85
Index attempted a mild recovery; DMAs Golden Cross positive effect fading; potential risk to 2170
HongKong- HangSeng
22,618.67
+4.10
22,656.92
-0.17
Index peaked after recovering sharply from April lows; potential downside risk to 22.0K
India-Sensex 30
19,704.33
+6.80
19,598.08
+0.54
Index peaked at 20.4K in May; momentum fading; potential downside risk to 18.5K
Japan-Nikkei 225
14,612.45
+13.86
10,395.18
+40.57
The spike up to 15942 called for a correction or consolidation; pos. Golden Cross; risk to 12500
S.Korea-Kospi Comp.
1,973.45
+2.40
1,997.05
-1.18
Index had recovered, but DMS Dead Cross points to weakness ahead; potential downside risk to 1890
Australia- All Ordinar.
4,964.30
+1.33
4,664.60
+6.42
Index weaker after a May peak; positive beams from Golden Cross, but momentum fading; risk to 4550
NewZealand -NZSX 50
4,526.25
+2.10
4,066.51
+11.31
Index peaked at 4675, but uptrend appears solid; target 4500+ met; downside risk to 3600
M iddle E ast & A frica
P rice
% 7- wks
YE-2012
% YTD
T echnical I nsight
SaudiArab-Tadawul
7,363.13
+2.99
6,853.71
+7.43
Index hinting again to higher prices after successful consolidation phase; downside risk to 7000
UAE-DFM Gen.Index
2,305.62
+22.61
1,622.53
+42.10
Climbed sharply from its early April low & above its 2009 highs; next substantial resistance at 3000+
S.Africa-JSE All Shr.
40,998.58
+6.49
39,250.24
+4.45
Index peaked at 42000 May high; a mild correction followed; downside risk to 39000
US- DJ
Note:
Industrial Aver.
Compos.
T echnical I nsight
All Indices expressed in local currencies, except the Russian RTS index ($)
INFERENTIAL FOCUS
IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 3/17
dimension on news that increased dissent about maintaining QE3 (mortgage-backed securities) and QE4 (Treasuries) at the current pace of purchases was emerging within the FOMC’s ranks (hint from FOMC latest minutes) .
U.S. F ixed -I ncome Y ield I ndex CBOE
market at a glance ( close
as of
M ay 24, 2013 ):
L ast P rice
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
I R X
0.37
0.35
0.05
1.15
0.50
0.85
31.40
S-T yield contraction continued, well below DMAs; decline does not appear as completed yet
F V X
8.88
7.25
8.30
20.16
26.86
15.51
34.55
M-T yield bottomed at 0.6% early-May, then surged to 0.9%, well above DMAs support
T N X
20.11
17.56
18.71
33.05
38.43
22.44
40.35
L-T yield bottomed at 1.6% early-May, then surged to 2.0%, well above DMAs support
T Y X
31.75
29.52
28.89
43.62
46.41
26.91
44.59
30-yr bottomed at 2.8% early-May, then surged to 3.2%, well above DMAs support
13-week Tsy 5-year Tsy 10-year Tsy 30-year Tsy
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
S hort -T erm to L ong -T erm T rend
By hitting the “panic” button, investors shaved substantial value from global equities, leaving Italy (-4%) , Australia (-3.8%) , Spain (-3.7%) , Japan (-3.5%) and Mexico (-3.1%) suffering the most during last week. Before then, Japan was gaining 50% from the beginning of the year. After the shaky week, Japan is still up 40% for the year slightly behind UAE’s DFM General Index also up 42% for 2013. On negative territory can be found (January to present) : Russia losing 9%, followed by Poland, Brazil and Mexico which have all experienced a 7% contraction in equity indices’ value. The inference drawn from this global overview is that, although the global investment circles’ concerns seem to be focusing on Europe, its contracting economy and its structural problems (labor, debt, deficits, unemployment and demography, which come on top of the lack of a political, economic and fiscal union) , other parts of the world experience difficulties as well. Growth in Latin America, in particular, continues to disappoint, which equity indices have been highlighting over the course of 2013. Moreover, the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) fall might be boosting Japanese exports and lifting domestic industries, but U.S., Korean and European autos, tech, machinery and tourist operators could be the biggest losers of the substantial JPY’s depreciation.
C ommodities I ndex /C ommodity C R B Index
Commodity Res.Bur.
G o l d
NearbyFuturesCont.
C o p p e r
NearbyFuturesCont.
at a glance ( close L ast P rice
Y ear -E nd
2012
as of
Y ear -E nd
2011
M ay 24, 2013 ) : Y ear -E nd
2010
Y ear -E nd
2009
Y ear -E nd
2008
S hort -T erm
to
L ong -T erm
T echnical O verview
284.89
295.01
305.30
332.80
283.38
229.54
Index peaked at 291 in May in a lower-highs/lower/lows sequence; neg. DMAs Dead Cross; potential risk to 268
1386.64
1675.80
1566.80
1421.40
1096.20
884.30
Gold liquidation phase continues; DMAs Dead Cross ominous of further weakness ahead; L/T risk to 650/oz.
329.55
365.25
343.60
444.70
334.65
141.00
Dr. Copper attempted to bottom at 304; challenging 50-DMA resistance; DMAs Dead Cross; downside risk to 299
Natural Gas
4.240
3.350
2.989
4.410
5.572
5.622
Natural gas medium-term trend is up, within a long-term downtrend; challenging resistance at 4 and higher
Crude Oil - WTI
94.15
91.82
98.30
91.38
79.36
44.60
Crude Oil consolidation continues; pos. Golden Cross; looming potential upside breakout at 99+; upside obj. $111+
NearbyFuturesCont.
NearbyFuturesCont.
INFERENTIAL FOCUS C urrencies
IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 4/17
at a glance ( close
as of
M ay 24, 2013 ): S hort -T erm
L ong -T erm
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
Y ear -E nd
83.69
79.77
80.18
78.96
77.95
81.21
USD consolidating Feb-Mar gains; positive DMAs Golden Cross hint to uptrend ahead; key support around 80
USD per EUR
1.2932
1.3200
1.2961
1.3383
1.4324
1.4007
EUR appears to have bottomed at 1.27 $/€ in Apr-May; neg. DMAs’ Dead Cross; potential downside risk to 1.20 $/€
JPY per USD
101.31
86.740
76.914
81.117
93.035
90.345
JPY weakened further versus USD (peak at 77.61 JPY/$); potential longer term downside risk to 110 JPY/$
JPY per EUR
131.01
114.46
99.686
108.56
133.28
127.12
JPY, by leaps and bounds, is weakening also versus EUR; Dead Cross ominous of weakness ahead; support around 130-140 JPY/€
USD per GBP
1.5127
1.6234
1.5543
1.5612
1.6152
1.4614
GBP again about to challenge the 1.48 $/GBP level; yet, not to be ignored is a potential downside risk to 136 $/GBP
EUR per GBP
1.1697
1.2299
1.1992
1.1665
1.1275
1.0387
GBP weakish again vs. EUR; failed 50-day MA support; potential downside risk to 1.12-1.04 €/GBP remains
CHF per USD 0.9615
0.9158
0.9381
0.9352
1.0352
1.0690
CHF stronger versus USD, likely to challenge its March-2012 0.89 CHF/$ peak; longterm “up/down” obj.: 0.67-1.06 CHF/$
CHF per EUR
1.2433
1.2081
1.2159
1.2516
1.4829
1.5040
CHF volatile & stronger vs. EUR, but within trading range (1.25-1.17 CHF/€); L/T risk to 1.30 CHF/€ remains
CHF per GBP
1.4543
1.4867
1.4581
1.4600
1.6720
1.5286
CHF weaker versus GBP; positive Golden Gross effect begins to fade; 1.54 CHF/£ remains a key level to watch
C urrency US$
Index
P rice
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
to
T echnical T rend
I n T he R ear -V iew M irror : I nferential F ocus - M ay 2003 “Will the economy follow the market rally?
...the answer is NO.”
“While Western corporations, in their desperate struggle for productivity gains or for mere profits (a 12% earnings gain in the first quarter, instead of being demand-driven, was almost entirely due to cost-cutting, and revenues grew only 2%) continue to export manufacturing and services jobs abroad, China has become the manufacturer of the world. China, long regarded as the epicenter of global deflation, is exporting it to the new and the old continent.”. “In the U.S., however, the Greenspan Fed misguided central banking is reaching further depths, considering its immense efforts to create inflation to counteract the Asian exported deflation, even though the Fed call it falling inflation .” “...the market is awash with an ocean of massive liquidity and the Fed is not making any mystery of its intention to embark America in a perpetual-inflation and currency debasement fate...” “...the strategy apparently is to postpone the day of reckoning at all costs, and to hope for a miracle!”
Not much seems to have changed in the last ten years!
INFERENTIAL FOCUS
IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 5/17
C an T he W orld F inancial S ystem B e R eformed ? One can never assume that having attended once a CIFA Forum, he/she has seen them all! Every year, CIFA has the ability to surprise with a) the accurate selection of topics to be debated during the event, b) the distinctive selection of speakers, and c) the creative angle from which the world of finance should best approach suggested solutions to the problems that is either currently facing or about to face. Again this year, CIFA -- Convention of Independent Financial Advisors -- gathered in Monaco (April 24-26) for its XI th International Forum around the major question: Can the World Financial System be Reformed? The title alone infers that: a) the world financial system needs major care, and b) questions the very feasibility of the most needed reforms provided that they are correctly identified. Confident that the eminent speakers invited to this year’s Forum would provide effective insights to guide the world’s future, CIFA aligned a vast and ambitious program, therefore, offered to participants. CIFA has been consistent throughout the years, since its foundation over a decade ago in Geneva, in identifying the problems bugging the world finance and in attempting courageously to find solutions.
INFERENTIAL FOCUS
IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 6/17
In his opening speech of the 2013 threeday conference, CIFA’s President Mr. Pierre Christodoulidis, began by drawing the audience’s attention to the fact that CIFA had asked all the right questions since its inception in 2003. A glance at the Forums’ main topics -- the most recent are shown in the previous page -- fully highlight that the crises eroding the global financial system have been around for quite some time. After focusing in 2003 on “What Challenges for Independent Financial Advisers”, CIFA’s Forum went on with provocative topics, such as “Let’s provoke a dialogue with the regulators” in 2005, “Investor’s freedom or consumer’s protection?” in 2008, “Financial Bubbles and Regulatory Bubbles” in 2010 during the annual event held in Madrid, Spain, and this year’s again very challenging question “Can the World Financial System be Reformed?” in Monaco -- more information on www.cifango.org . Through the years, CIFA Forums were held in Geneva (2003 through 2007) , Prague (2008) , Paris (2009), Madrid (2010) and Monaco since 2011 to present.
For readers not familiar with CIFA, here is some basic information.
CIFA, a non-profit Swiss foundation, was setup in Geneva, Switzerland, in December 2001, aiming to become the ideal contact point for financial advisors and wealth managers, as well as legislators and regulators. With individual investors’ needs in mind, CIFA chose to focus on enhancing the basic status (the very foundations of their independent businesses) of IFAs around the globe, by promoting the highest professional standards, best-practice rules and ethical rules. These specific goals have been pursued relentlessly by CIFA, which has the highly impressive ability to approach them from several interesting angles through the intelligent selection of renowned international speakers. Each year, I was pleasantly surprised by the appropriateness of topics discussed, the excellence of presentations and relative roundtable discussions. By 2007, CIFA had already become an NGO (non-governmental-organization) in special consultative status with UN’s ECOSOC, the United Nations’ Economic and Social Council. A year later, in 2008, “The Charter Of Investors’ Rights” ( www.cifango.org ), developed under the supervision of UN’s ECOSOC, was introduced during the CIFA’s VI th Forum held in Prague, The Czech Republic. This was the first time, to my knowledge, that anyone around the globe focused on the basic rights of investors! Having been around the financial industry for over four decades, I observed through various cycles how the industry morphed without ever taking into serious consideration the “individual investor”. Isn’t the individual investor who provides the very basis for finance? How could a stock market, a bank, etc., ever exist without the individual investor? Nowadays and for too long, modern finance gives a disproportionate importance to algorithm-based trading platforms. Blue-suited view the Charter’s full text on engineers have built a world of computers trading www.cifango.org
INFERENTIAL FOCUS P ulse
of the
IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 7/17
U.S. E conomy -
E conomic G rowth
as a guidance for other geographies
P eriod
D ata R
+2.5%
Capacity Utilization
Apr-P
R
77.8%
Industrial Output
Apr-P
98.7
NonFarm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs
Q1:13
0.7% / 0.5%
I ncome , C onsumpt . & D istribut .
P eriod
Gross Domestic Product
Personal Income / Spending -
Q1:13
Bil.$
D ata
March
13,630 / 11,405
Personal Savings Rate, St. Louis Fed
March
3.0%
Factory Shipments -
March
481.77
Mar-P
414,688/1,269.63
Bil.$
Wholesale/Business Sales - Bil.$
P rev .P eriod R
0.4%
R
Y ear A go
2.0%
78.3%
79.2%
99.3
97.4
R -1.7% / 4.4%
-0.5% / 2.0%
P rev .P eriod
Y ear A go
R
R 13,600 / 11,384
R
13,266 / 11,060
2.7%
4.0%
486.75
474.69
421,615/1,283.69
409,058/1,247.0
R
Retail Store Sales - Bil.$
April
New Home Sales - Thous.Units
April
454
444
349
Autos, Domestic/Import ... units sold
April
220,490/431,154
239,592/514,110
199,379/432,807
P eriod
D ata
P rev .P eriod
Y ear A go
I nventories
Business Inventories - Bil.$ Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio
O rders ( actual
and surveys )
ISM-Manufacturing / NonManufacturing
March
419.03
1,640.86
March
P eriod April
D ata
50.7 / 53.1
May
-1.4
Durable Goods - Bil.$
April
222.6
Factory Orders: New / Backlog - Bil.$
March
467.29 / 990.07
Non-Durable Goods Orders - Bil.$
March
251.33
Monthly Budget Statement
- Bil.$
P eriod April
418.65 R
R
1,641.42
1.29
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
B udget & T rade
R
D ata
$112.9
404.27
1,570.00
1.28
P rev .P eriod
R
51.3 / 54.4 R
1.26
Y ear A go
54.1 / 53.5
3.1
17.1
215.4
214.8
486.81 / 997.18
468.92 / 986.19
R R
257.44
P rev .P eriod
-$106.5
253.64
Y ear A go
$59.1
Merchandise Trade Balance - Bil.$
March
-$56.1
R
-$60.8
$67.6
BalanceOfPayments (incl.Services) - M$
Q4:12
-$110.4
R
-$112.4
-$118.7
Exports / Imports
Q1:13
R 1,851/2,252
1,838 / 2,222
1,819 / 2,234
I nflation
Consumer Price Index c
GDP Implicit Price Deflator Producer Price Index d Industrial Price Index (JOC-ECRI) f Rate of Inflation
E mployment
Civil Labor Force: Total/Employed Thous.
P eriod
D ata
Q1:13
R
April
232.5
April
193.8 119.64
1.5%
2.3%
1.1%
P rev .P eriod
Y ear A go
155,238/143,579
155,028/143,286
154,451/141,934
120.5
119.9
118.3
Apr-P
135,474
Apr-P
18,644 / 116,830
Government Payrolls (Thousand)
Apr-P
21,844
Unemployment Rate
April
7.5%
New Housing Permits/Starts (Thous.Units)
April
C onfidence
P eriod
D ata
856.7
1,017 / 853
D ata
135,309
133,397
18,863 / 116,656
R
18,408 / 114,989
R
21,855
21,933
7.6%
8.1%
P rev .P eriod R
R
871.2
890 / 1,021
P rev .P eriod
Consumer Confid./Confer.Board
April
68.1
Phil. Fed Business Outlook Survey
May
Univ. of Michigan Confidence In. Leading Indicators b - ( new methodology)
Notes:
R
D ata
Payrolls: Goods Prod./Service (Thousand)
March
2.0%
196.2
All Non-Farm Payrolls (Thousand)
Construction Spending - Bil.$
1.0% 124.83
Q1:13
P eriod
230.1
194.9
Employment Cost Index e
C onstruction
R
Y ear A go
125.16
April
P eriod
232.8
1.2%
April May 24
P rev .P eriod
R
Y ear A go
817.8
749 / 754
Y ear A go
61.9
68.7
-5.2
1.3
-5.8
May
83.7
76.4
79.3
April
95.0
94.4
95.5
R
a-1997 equals 100, b-1996 equals 100, c-1982/84 equals 100, d-1982 equals 100, e-Dec.2005 equals 100, f-final, P-preliminary, R-revised.
INFERENTIAL FOCUS
IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 8/17
with computers, where there is no room for the individual investor. But, guess what? At some point, even the most sophisticated algorithms are bound to fail if the individual investors are not there, with their daily trading activities, to provide the indispensable background for the sophisticated trading strategies to be effectively implemented in order to deliver the projected returns on investment. Going back to the April 2013 Forum, CIFA’s President Mr. Pierre Christodoulidis underlined how chronic financial crises of recent years did not truly just appear on the horizon on a specific time. Signs were evident well before! CIFA has relentlessly alerted investors and regulators of what was coming. All these crises -- namely LTCM, dotcom bubble, Enron, subprimes, Madoff, Libor -- resulted in great losses in the range of thousand billion Dollars across the globe, high unemployment and, finally, governments suffering the pain of uncontrollable public debt. Regulators, always invited to attend CIFA’s events, have not been able to spot these crises on time and even less to stop the resulting destructive trend. Unfortunately, the world of finance has embarked in strategies which deeply damage the trust of people. Worse, government debt in most nations has run through the roof, so heavy was the effort to “bail” banks across the globe during the 2008 crisis. Finance seems to be in command nowadays, not the people, not governments. It’s time, therefore, to quit individualism and to embrace moral behavior instead! And, finance must be at the service of the economy and of the people, not the other way around! This is what CIFA defends! U.N. and Monaco’s officials expressed similar concerns. H.E. Nestor Osorio, President of ECOSOC, although mentioning the devastating effects of the 2008 crisis on the world economy, especially in emerging countries, more specifically he looked forward to “innovation through science” that should be widely adopted in order to achieve soundly competitive and sustainable growth. Education, skilled labor, ethics and especially continued corporate social responsibility, all well anchored pillars of UN-ECOSOC principles, must be favored in order to achieve economic and social balance around the world. He lauded the actions of CIFA whose ambitious goals are so rightly aligned with the United Nations’ ECOSOC most pressing concerns. H.E. Jean Castellini, Minister of Finance and Economy in Monaco, went at length to describe how seriously the Principality has been tackling for decades the issue of providing laws aimed to fight terrorism, money-laundering and other criminogenic financial issues, even though Monaco’s approach remains highly pragmatic. Speaking about IFAs (Independent Financial Advisors) , he lauded in particular the “I” as he believes that the very independence of the financial advisor –- he/she is normally not the issuer of financial products, but banks are
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-- acts as a potent repellent against “conflicts of interest” unfortunately ever dominating in modern finance. Investor protection, therefore, is best assured by IFAs! Aside from historic events to which speakers referred to here and there, when pertinent to illustrate and enhance the roundtables’ discussion, following are the most salient principles which emerged during this year’s conference, that I wish to highlight in particular in this paper: ▶ ▶ Africa is finally invited at an international discussion table, affirmed Mr. Jean Ping, Former President of the African Union (he also presided, a few years ago, the 59th Session of the UN General Assembly and OPEC) . Africa was unfortunately misguided in the past by Western powers’ good intentions. This pressing influence was instrumental for a devastating dismantling of existing state authorities, defense structures and economic policies across the African continent. The resulting consequences speak of the failure of these policies implemented under heavy pressure from the West. Africa was left in catastrophic poverty. But, by including Africa in the discussion around the systemic crises currently affecting the world and on how to reform the international financial system, is not only laudable, but it proves that the world is finally waking up to comprehending that Africa is part of this world, even though it was never invited to the G-20 gatherings. Yet, Africa represents 54 countries within the 193 UNrecognized countries, or about 1 billion people today (2 billion in 2050) . Evidently, the UN-ECOSOC has still to emerge as the UN “security council” to tackle effectively world economic and finance matters! ▶ ▶ Andrei Abramov, Chief of DESA NGO Branch, generally alert to major UN priorities but particularly to the need to lower the overall poverty level around the world, deplored the great divide of modern times between finance and the real economy. The people on the street can hardly comprehend why tons of money are thrown at bailing out financial institutions and how this could aid their lives. How is it possible that for every Dollar deriving from goods producing efforts, no less that 40 Dollars exchange hands in merely financial transactions unrelated to the real economy? Why are banks allowed to gamble with their depositors’ money? Why are financial crimes unpunished? Technology, science and innovation should be used to erase global inequality! Yet, misallocation of financial assets and the resulting sovereign debt crises are in the end weighing heavily on the shoulders of taxpayers. Economy and finance should work hand on hand from now on for the good of all the people of our planet. Yes, the global financial system must be reformed ...urgently! CIFA has demonstrated its great experience and ability on several instances by helping the United Nations’ ECOSOC initiatives around innovative ideas about how to reform effectively the global financial system.
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IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 10/17
▶ ▶ William H. Black, white-collar criminologist and former senior financial regulator, addressed the specific goal of reducing extreme poverty by stating very clearly the centrality that “women” have in the success of whatever efforts are deployed. Education, for instance, always delivers unsuspected positive outcomes, especially when governments concentrate on educating “women” first. Water availability and sanitation are also essential to eradicate extreme poverty across the globe. Results achieved globally so far in the eradication of extreme poverty show notable diverse features, at least geographically. China and India, for instance, saw a massive reduction in poverty in recent years to the expense of great pollution. In Africa and Latin America, however, said Prof. William Black, the problem goes beyond what has been discussed in this panel. Under the guidance of supranational institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, all these countries were locked into unsustainable debt for over twenty years, a situation that prevented meaningful growth to develop, for instance, across the African continent. ▶ ▶ Luca Fantacci, Associate Professor of Economic History at Bocconi University in Milano (Italy) , has focused his works on the history of financial systems. Furthermore, he researched the idea of “complementary currencies” along with Massimo Amato, with whom he coauthored a book heralding “The End of Finance” (a book review was published in the Wealth Gram’s May edition -- www.gscgi.ch) . Reforming the international monetary system is essential in order to overcome the repetitive pattern of crises that the world is experiencing. Prof. Amato believes that a “truly” international currency should be considered, such as the famous “BANCOR” type of currency fathered in the old days by Keynes. Readers might recall that I briefly mentioned in the INFERENTIAL FOCUS (issue #200 of August 2011; 3rd section, on pages 16-17, dealing with “Is an International Reserve Fund the Solution? ...from the speech I delivered in August 2011 at the Banco del Uruguay’s annual economic conference in Montevideo) the following: The IMF proposed to adopt its SDRs unit (Special Drawing Rights, created in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system) as a global reserve currency. Hence, China seems to favour this idea. Incidentally, Madame Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, nominated Mr. Zhu Min, the first Chinese Vice-President Special Advisor at the IMF. Are these two events related? Do they infer future intense work for a “BANCOR” type supranational currency (idea fathered by John Maynard Keynes) ? Will a supranational currency be the solution?
As most readers recall, the IMF proposed a global currency in honour of the father of Keynesian economics, John Maynard Keynes, who had suggested the creation a supranational currency called the “BANCOR” decades ago. BANCOR would be used in international trade as a unit of account within a multilateral “barter” clearing system. BANCOR would be a “fiat” currency. A global fiat currency would extend huge power into the
INFERENTIAL FOCUS
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hands of whichever international entity (IMF, BIS, G-20, etc. ???) would be empowered (by whom?) to create and manage it. A key feature of Keynes’ BANCOR was that, in order to encourage a balance of trade, both debtor and creditor nations would share some responsibility: (a) debtor nations would pay interest on their overdrawn account, and (b) creditor nations would be charged interest for their surplus account and eventually gradually lose that surplus if not spent back to debtor nations (in plain English, BANCOR being “fiat” money, if not used in international trade, it would be destroyed; essentially it would eliminate imbalances between surplus/nations and deficit/nations) . In other words, BANCOR would be a truly international currency, distinct from national currencies, aiming at the expansion of international trade (from which balance of payments’ incongruence would be banned) . Finally, I found absolutely interesting the fact that Prof. Amato raised this subject, since the major need nowadays for the world is to re-link finance to the real economy. ▶ ▶ Dan Mitchell, Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute in Washington, D.C., who has long focused on researching tax reform, international tax competition and the economics of fiscal policy, expressed great concerns about government finance/debt across the globe. He warned that we could go from one crisis to another, who is responsible (politicians and governments will continue to kick the can down the road and pass on the problems to someone else) won’t pay, and the world is sliding unrelentingly into more fiscal crises and widespread civil unrest in various countries. Dan was critical as well on the accumulation of global regulation, applying to all (rather, he favors competition of various national systems, which would make single governments responsible and accountable for their policies) , without ever any government drawing the line on which regulation was truly effective for the problem it was designed to solve. ▶ ▶ At the roundtable question “Did the banking regulation solve the problems after the 2008 financial crisis, or did it create new ones?” Louise C. Bennetts, Associate Director of financial regulation at the CATO Institute in Washington, D.C., offered first an extensive analysis of how various countries tackled the crises. She particularly pointed out to the fact that in America, no public funds are allowed to be used in a bailout, while in Europe governments quickly proclaimed that “no bank would be allowed to fail”, which in itself involved that public money would bail out failing financial institutions. She also expressed criticism at the U.S. Fed designed rules for foreign banks’ branches in the U.S., which in the end creates huge regulatory duplications mostly inapplicable, therefore, ineffective. In plain English, local initiatives most often clash when a “global problem” need to be solved in a “global way”. Regulating globally, for instance, the complex derivative products’ system is an uphill struggle. U.S. regulators can, by law, impose quite draconian rules, also deemed stringent, to U.S. branches of non-U.S. companies deal-
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IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 12/17
ing in the derivatives’ market in the United States. Recently, an absurd set of rules was imposed which caused the ire of many Finance Ministers across the globe including Michel Barnier (EU). Foreign authorities appealed for help to Jack Lew, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, only to realize how impotent the Treasury Secretary, i.e., the U.S. government, is in matters involving U.S. regulators (namely, the CFTC in this particular case) . ▶ ▶ Massimo Amato, Associate Professor of Economic History at Bocconi University in Milano (Italy), introduced CIFA’s audience to the principle of “complementary currencies”, a project he has been working on for quite a while and which is being tested already. In fact, since 2011, a private clearing house based on a complementary currency has been set up in Nantes (France) and officially launched by the former Mayor of Nantes, Jean-Marc Ayrault (currently France’s Prime Minister) . The system aims at providing liquidity to local businesses whenever it is needed without having to seek a banking credit line or else. People and businesses, therefore, are debtors/creditors of services, not of money! The advantages of such a system are various. Businesses would not go bankrupt for lack of liquidity. Jobs would be preserved. Moreover, there would be a healthy link/equilibrium between production and demand of manufactured goods. The plan exposed by Prof. Amato represented a creative attempt to answer one of CIFA’s Forum main topics of 2013: reforming the international financial system and who will have to pay for it. I will stop here my extended discussion about the 2013 CIFA Forum, but not without apologizing to all other distinguished speakers who offered extensive analyses and creative ideas during the three-day event. I strongly encourage readers to attend this annual event in order to truly capture the value-added content that cannot be faithfully described in only a few pages.
A G lance A t W orld ’ s I nsightful N ews This section, by spotting insightful news early enough, will make investors aware of possible and probable events likely to affect their investment decision process. Its content does not pretend to be exhaustive in any way and it does not imply either the occurrence, or the imminence of such occurrence, of events of any type (market, financial, economic, strategic, political, geopolitical and social) .
ARGENTINA
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner badly needs “creative” financial management tools! The government is waking up and realizing that the current capital controls are upsetting the nation’s middle classes. As a consequence, capital is fleeing from Argentina. Capital flight has apparently reached $2.2 billion in April, according to an Argentine newspaper, three times the capital flight recorded in April 2012. Since January, more than $6 billion quit Argentina while the central bank’s reserves dropped by more than $8 billion to $39.4 billion.
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Argentina is trying to survive, but it remains isolated and increasingly Dollarpoor! Apparently, the government is thinking at attracting Argentine’s Dollars invested abroad to the country’s official market “tax free”, a move aimed at facilitating liquidity in the real estate market (it operates mostly in Dollars) . The government also plans a second move, via a 4% bond aimed at attracting local Dollars to directly finance the energy industry. In plain English, the government wants Argentine Dollars to be repatriated into the country and into the nation’s financial system. No questions asked! If successful, the government’s move would help the most ailing industries in the country, real estate and energy. But, when the government last tried to apply such measures, in 2009, it only repatriated $4 billion. Will Argentine be more successful this time around and, thus, avoid to have to devalue its currency?
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK - ECB
The Eurozone’s unemployment rate rose to a fresh high in March, while the annual rate of inflation fell to its lowest level in April (since February 2010) , a combination that increased, from financial markets’ perspective, the likelihood that the European Central Bank was to cut its benchmark interest rate soon. As expected, the European Central Bank announced its first cut in key interest rates since July of last year -- its key refinancing rate was cut by 25 basis points to a new record low of 0.5%. At the same time, the marginal lending rate was trimmed by 50 basis points to 1% while the deposit rate, which was already at zero, remained unchanged. Moreover, the official interest rate corridor was narrowed, as a consequence, to 100 basis points, or only half the 200 basis point spread that the ECB used to consider optimal until very recently. The ECB’s move came amid increasing evidence that the Eurozone economy is stuck in double trouble. While the downturn was initially limited to those countries where elevated sovereign debt had led to a financial crisis, it has since spread to core countries such as France and the Netherlands. In fact, on one side, recent disappointing data from Germany have raised doubts about its recovery prospects and, on the other, worries about the lack of any real momentum in most of the rest of the region cannot be ignored. Recently, even German unemployment remained stuck at the 5.4% high in March for its consecutive 8th month (EU-17 average rose a record 12.1% in March) ! Moreover, the weakness of the real economy looks to be spilling over into prices with the flash measure of April HICP inflation plunging 0.5 percentage points to 1.2 percent, well short of the ECB’s near two percent target. And, while the Eurozone economy is still mired in recession, the annual inflation slowed more than expected in April, to 1.2%, raising the specter that deflation may appear on the horizon. However, just how much difference shaving 25 basis points off ECB’s interest rates will have when borrowing costs are already so low remains to be seen. In practice, any positive impact is more likely to be psychological. In fact, the ECB President Mario Draghi has warned, on more than one occasion, about disruptions to the “monetary transmission mechanism”, or the process through which monetary policy decisions affect the economy in general and the price level in particular. Unfortunately, whatever benefits the rate cut is supposed to deliver may well not be felt in the countries where they are most needed.
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IF 223 -- May 27, 2013 -- 14/17
CROATIA
Having obtained mid-May the German Parliament approval for its accession to the European Union, on July 1st Croatia will become the 28th member state of the European bloc. The timing, however, is the least opportune that the Balkan country might have wished. The European Union and the Eurozone suffers from chronic economic stagnation. Europe’s core economies (France, Italy, The Netherlands and especially Germany) are either in recession or grow at a very low pace. Croatians, however, must be eager to get some EU funds to help alleviate their struggling economy. Eurostat expects the Croatian economy to contract in 2013 for the fifth consecutive year! Unemployment in the country remains quite high (18.5%) and youth unemployment stands above 50%. Throughout core Europe opposition to the free movement of labor is growing. As other members, Croatia too will face years of labor mobility restrictions -Romania and Bulgaria will begin benefit from full free movement of labor only in 2014 and have not yet been granted access to the Schengen zone. Notwithstanding the fact that the EU is evidently disillusioned in its “enlargement” vision, however, many other countries in the Balkans remain candidates (Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia) or hope to become candidate countries (Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina) .
UNITED KINGDOM
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee left its policy unchanged at its last meeting, the key interest rate remained at 0.5% and the size of its asset purchase program was maintained at £375 billion. Evidently, the central bank refrained from changing its monetary policy as it waits for the arrival of its new governor, Mark Carney, in July. Financial markets were not expecting any substantial move, after a surprisingly respectable provisional 0.3% quarterly increase in real GDP at the start of the year and early survey evidence of a decent April for the key service sector. But, the economy has yet to display signs of a sustainable recovery, as the increase in total output in the first quarter merely reversed the previous period’s decline. As such, another round of quantitative easing remains a clear possibility, although any such move would be unlikely before August at the earliest, when the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report will be released. Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service stripped the United Kingdom of its triple-A credit rating, predicting that economic weakness will weigh on public finances for years to come. Moody’s lowered the U.K.’s domestic and foreigncurrency bond rating one notch to Aa1 and changed its outlook to stable, which financial markets noticed particularly since Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services and Fitch Ratings still have the U.K. on negative outlooks.
UKRAINE
The European Union’s wish to integrate Ukraine to the bloc is intensifying, even though the deadline to meet EU terms for signing an association agreement was postponed from May to November 2013. Sweden, Poland and Lithuania are the main proponents of bringing Ukraine closer to the EU bloc and away from the Russian orbit. The “Eastern Partnership Program”, that the EU is pursuing,
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includes other former Soviet Union countries, such as Belarus and Moldova as well as the three Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Ukraine is the most important target for the EU’s strategic strategy in the continent. Ukraine is also the fulcrum of Russia’s geopolitical strategy, which is underlying why Moscow will not let any other state control Ukraine so easily. Ukraine is a significant industrial and agricultural producer, vital to Russia and to Europe. Perhaps, the contest will come down to whom is willing to put most money on the table to upgrade and modernize Ukraine’s aging infrastructure, especially in the energy sector. Furthermore, Germany remains quite lukewarm about Ukraine integration into the EU due to the fact that Berlin has a strong economic relationship with Moscow. Finally, there is the critical issue of former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko imprisonment. The EU is asking for an outright pardon from Kiev, a move that PM Yanukovich is reluctant to act on, as the issue remains highly politically sensitive. Would the European Court of Human Rights intervene at some point to relieve PM Yanukovich from having the issue entirely weighing on his shoulders?
JAPAN
Status quo from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy board message held under the firm hold of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the main architect of the easing steps that aim to reverse Japan’s deflation and generate 2 percent inflation in about two years. The vote was unanimous to leave its key interest rate range at zero to 0.1 percent, along with its asset purchases kept unchanged following the April decision to double its bond holdings in two years by expanding the supply of money at an annual pace of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion. Effects are being seen in the economy, as exports have stopped declining thanks also to the improving beams coming from overseas economies. During this last policy meeting (the third held under his leadership) , BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda appeared fully committed to continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, and that for as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. Although puzzled by the volatility in the JGB market, which he rated “a bit high” compared with the past, Governor Kuroda added that, while climbing yields warrant close monitoring, he was nevertheless not expecting them to have any significant impact on the real economy.
SOUTH KOREA
The Bank of Korea (BOK), in a more accommodative move, lowered the benchmark seven day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, bringing the BOK’s policy rate to its lowest level since early 2011. The move surprised global financial markets as deep divisions have persisted within the monetary policy board members since 2006. But, South Korea’s export industries must have been stymied recently by the weak Japanese Yen. Shrinking global demand was already causing pain before competition from a weaker Japanese Yen aggravated the whole situation. Moreover, South Korea’s gross domestic product has been stuck below 1.0% for nearly two years and grew last year at the slowest pace since 2009.
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The BOK, although it cited plenty of factors weighing on the rate cut decision, omitted to mention that the central bank had also succumbed to heavy pressure to cut rates from the President Park Geun-hye. Yet, as financial markets know quite well, the government had made no secret of its desire for central bank support in its economic program. Furthermore, President Park Geun-hye, who took office last February, obtained recently the nation’s Parliament to approve a supplementary government budget of 17.3 trillion Won (or approximately $15.80 billion) , aimed at creating jobs, supporting smaller enterprises and revitalizing the housing market. The trouble is that most of that money will go to cover 12 trillion Won in revenue shortfalls, limiting actual new spending to around 5.3 trillion Won. It must be noted here, however, that Seoul’s national debt level might cause planetary envy even after the extra spending. After the extra budget, the nation’s government debt will increase to 480.5 trillion Won, equal to only 36.2% of GDP, up from 34.8% in 2012. Finally, the ability of either monetary or fiscal policy to spur output, in a country where exports account for more than half of economic policy, may prove limited.
INDIA
Earlier in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the key policy repo rate by an additional 25 basis points to 7.25%, the third rate reduction since January. The reverse repo rate and the marginal facility rate, which together determine the official interest rate corridor, were also lowered by 25 basis points and now stand at 6.25 percent and 8.25 percent, respectively. However, the cash reserve ratio was held at 4.0 percent. The central bank succumbed to a surprisingly sharp slowdown in the Indian economic activity, actually growing (5.1% in 2012 - the slowest pace in a decade) well below potential as domestic confidence falters. In India, as in other countries across the globe, it was observed a gradual slowdown in inflation (Wholesale Price Index fell to 6%, the lowest level for three years) has allowed the RBI to take action in loosening its monetary policy. Yet, retail inflation remains quite high: CPI inflation was running at an elevated 10.4% in March. Undoubtedly, the days of 8% annual GDP growth in India are long gone. However, Indian current account deficit, presently around 6.7% of GDP, is reason for major concern. In its new 2013-2014 Monetary Policy Statement, the RBI said it expects the economy to expand 5.7% in the fiscal year just begun, a respectable performance by the standards of the developed world but still the country’s lowest rate for a decade. India’s economy was expanding at a rate of more than 9% just two years ago! Will the country be condemned to relatively sluggish growth for many years to come? Is India a stumbling elephant?
AUSTRALIA
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its key interest rate 25 basis points to 2.75%, a record low (previous low was 2.89% in January 1960), after keeping the rate at 3.0% since December 2012. It was the seventh rate cut since No-
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vember 2011. The RBA responded to weak economic data, including March retail sales and tame inflation (the central bank now expects consumer prices to rise 2.25 percent in the year ending June 2013), which made the rate cut possible at this point in time. Moreover, some disappointment is still present in the labor segment as employment, although growing, is increasing at a slower pace than the labor force. The RBA’s monetary policy board noted that the Australian dollar remains at historically high levels. Evidently, the high currency is crippling the nation’s manufacturers and exporters. The RBA noted as well that rate sensitive sectors, such as consumer spending and home building, have been slow to respond to previous cuts by the bank. Yet, the RBA decided to join global counterparts and embrace record low rates in an economy where inflation is contained. Undoubtedly, Governor Glenn Stevens is aiming to rebalance growth across Australia to correct evident imbalances. In fact, as mining regions in the North and West thrive, manufacturers in the South and East struggle. It is vital for the country to reignite economic growth.
M onetary P olicy -M aking
around the
C ountry & C entral B ank O bjective
C entral B ank I nterest R ates %
U.S.A.-FED/Price Stability Federal Reserve
Fed funds 0.25
Canada-BOC/Price Inflat. Bank of Canada
- T he L eading S even ...
I nflation T arget %
I nflation A ctual %
annualized
decreased Dec. 2008
no set target
1.1
Q1:13 +2.5
7.5
Bank rate 1.00
increased Sep. 2010
1-3
0.4
Q4:12 +0.6
7.2
Japan - BOJ/Px Stability Bank of Japan
Ov.Call r. 0.05
decreased Oct. 2010
exit deflation
-0.5
Q1:13 +0.9
4.1
S.Korea-BOK / Px Inflat. Bank of Korea
Repo ratio 2.50
decreased May 2013
2.5-3.5
1.2
Q1:13 +0.9
3.1
Australia-RBA/Px Inflat. Reserve Bank of Aust.
Cash rate 2.75
decreased May 2013
2-3
0.4
Q4:12 +0.6
5.5
United Kingdom - BOE Bank of England/Px Infl.
Repo rate 0.50
decreased Mar. 2009
2.0
2.4
Q1:13 +0.6
7.8
EuroZone-ECB/Px Inflat. European Central Bank
Refin.rate 0.50
decreased May 2013
2.0
1.2
Q4:12 -0.6
EU-17 12.1 EU-27 10.9
GDP
U nemploy -
%
%
... ...
and the
L ast C hange D ate
W orld
representing about
75%
of global
GDP
U nemploy -
%
%
ment
GDP
BRIC s ...
C ountry & C entral B ank O bjective Brazil-CBoB/Price Inflat. Central Bank of Brazil
C entral B ank I nterest R ates %
L ast C hange D ate
I nflation T arget %
I nflation A ctual %
annualized
ment
Selic rate 7.50
increased Apr. 2013
4.50
6.5
Q4:12 +1.4
5.8
Central Bank of Russian Fed.
Refin.rate 8.25
increased Sep. 2012
fixed yearend
7.2
Q4:12 +2.1
5.6
India-RBI/Price Stability Reserve Bank of India
Repo rate 7.50
decreased Mar. 2013
3-5
4.9
Q4:12 +4.5
3.8
China-PboC / Px Stability People’s Bank of China
One-year lending rate 6.00
decreased July 2012
no set target
2.4
Q1:13 +7.7
4.1-urban 9.4-incl.migr.
Russia-CBRF/Price Inflat.
...
challenging the
M a jors
Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. It is a violation of Copyright Law to reproduce, or to distribute, all or part of this publication, or its contents, by any means .
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