Figure 9 Potential percentage increase in education expenditure as a result of increasing the tax to GDP ratio (various countries) Tanzania Morocco Madagascar Benin Kenya** Namibia** Bolivia South Africa Ghana** Senegal Mozambique** Dominican Republic Burkina Faso Botswana** Mali** Viet Nam Mauritania** Paraguay** El Salvador
14,71% 7,35% 17,54% 8,77% 17,54% 8,77% 27,78% 13,89% 28,57% 14,29% 30,76% 15,38% 31,75% 15,87% 31,75% 15,87% 37,04% 18,52% 39,22% 19,61% 40,00% 20,00% 42,81% 21,40% 43,49% 21,74% 49,38% 24,69% 52,63% 26,31%
75,47%
37,74%
90,89%
45,44%
100,00%
50,00%
111,11%
55,56%
111,11%
Mauritius
55,56% 114,29%
Indonesia
57,14%
Guatemala
125,00%
62,50%
125,00%
India
62,50%
Cameroon**
137,92%
68,96%
Bangladesh Zambia**
0%
166,67%
83,33% 142,87%
50% moderate option
100%
150%
200%
250%
ambitious option
Sources: Our compilation based on our calculations (Table 5) and latest World Bank data (accessed January 2011)198 **Countries with export potential (extractive or agricultural industries)
In Figure 10, a hypothesis of channelling 40 per cent of a potential increase in tax revenues to health has been applied. It shows the proportion of the total public spending budget that would be spent on health before and after such a 40 per cent increase in tax revenues dedicated to health. The black line across Figure 10 at the 15 per cent mark represents the international target of directing 15 per cent of public spending to health. In the countries analysed, it is clear that the 40 per cent of additional tax revenue added to the current health expenditure would enable these countries to surpass the goal of allocating 15 per cent of total public spending to health.
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Owning Development, Oxfam Research Report, September 2011
300%