Climate change in Uzbekistan Illustrated summary
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Š 2020, Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Acknowledgement Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) sponsored by the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank has provided support for the process of developing methods, approaches, and tools for decision-making support and knowledge products on climate change in Central Asia. Disclaimers The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the partner organizations and governments. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made. Management of the CAMP4ASB project in the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia: Zafar Makhmudov (Executive Director), Irina Bekmirzaeva (Program Manager) Contributors: Irina Bubenko, Saltanat Zhakenova, Viktor Novikov, Alexandra Povarich, Geoff Hughes, Dina Adylova
Produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network
Uzbekistan is located in the heart of Central Asia and shares major rivers — Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Zeravshan — with its neighbours. A population exceeding 33 million people makes Uzbekistan the most populous country of the region. Its agriculture and industry are well developed and its economy is diversified. Cotton — a highly water-intensive crop — is a major agricultural export, along with fruits and vegetables. The climate is continental, with hot summers and cool winters. Daily maximums in summer can reach up to 48°C. The deserts of central Uzbekistan receive 100 mm of precipitation, while mountains get over 800 mm per year. There is a trend towards a slight decrease in rainfall, especially in the southern parts of Uzbekistan. Annual temperatures are growing at average rates of 0.27°C per decade. The numbers of hot days and tropical nights are also growing. Uzbekistan is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and in the absence of additional measures, the nation may face deficiencies in water resources and an increase in land degradation. Climate warming has reduced snow cover and increased evaporation, and Uzbekistan is experiencing an ever greater risk of water deficit. An increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts may lead to instability in agricultural production and threaten the country’s food security. Uzbekistan’s populated areas and important infrastructure can be affected by heatwaves in summer, floods and mudflows in spring, and avalanches in winter. The lower Amu Darya River suffers from unreliable water supply and salt-anddust storms.
Adaptation projects in Karakalpakstan — an area considered among the most vulnerable to climate impacts in Uzbekistan — are helping farmers to modernize irrigation networks, introduce drought resistant crops and diversify sources of income. In the Zeravshan basin, farmers are receiving soft loans to build greenhouses, improve the reliability of the water supply and improve horticultural practices. The Uzbek Government is supporting modernization of hydrometeorological services, and the CAMP4ASB project contributes to the expansion of the automated weather observation network. High reliance on fossil fuels — primarily natural gas — makes Uzbekistan’s economy energy intensive. Investments in modernization, improvements in energy efficiency and the introduction of solar and wind power plants have reduced emissions. The energy sector is responsible for slightly more than 80 per cent of the country’s emissions, but the share and total contribution of energy emissions is declining. Agricultural emissions — primarily from livestock and cotton production — account for 10 per cent of total emissions. Emissions from waste management are the lowest, but they are growing the fastest.
Uzbekistan
20% mountains
Geography and climate
800 mm
Deserts and grasslands occupy 80% of county’s area
per year
+48oĐĄ max
100 mm per year
Population and economy
Services
* Metals, mining * Cement, chemicals * Cars, equipment
GDP 24%
50% urban
Industry
population
Renewable energy (hydropower) only 3% of total generation
54% 17%
Agriculture
50% rural population
90% of water consumed is used in agriculture
US $2 360 per person
2018
33 million 2019
20 million Population
w g ro
2010
Ec o n
th
g o mic
ro w
th
2019
+100 000 ha
5% per year Major producer and consumer of natural gas
Rapid growth in horticulture
1990
Water deficit and efficiency, soil quality and degradation
Environmental issues
Drying Aral Sea, dust storms
Pollution control
Waste management
Uzbekistan
Improved monitoring
Climate adaptation
Afforestation
Mitigation
Climate-smart cities and urban planning
Climate protection for vulnerable population
Improved water supply and sanitation
Hydropower Gasification of transport and residential sector
Improved healthcare Water reuse Waste recycling Water-saving irrigation technologies
Greenhouse systems to protect crops against weather extremes and food security
Shelter and feed for livestock
Renewable energy
Climate-resilient fruit and nut plantations
Drought resistant crops, soil conservation Improved weather forecasting and early warnings
i
Climate education and awareness
Restoration of wetlands, better water security for downstream areas
Uzbekistan
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Greenhouse gas emissions
Energy 82%
Fug itiv e
CН4
27
s ion iss em
68
Industrial processes 4%
CН4
CO2 8
Oil, gas, coal production and transportation
CO2
CO2 CO2
CO2
23
2
2
N 2O
CO2
3
9
Energy Residential
Cars
Chemical industry
Other sectors and sources
Agriculture 10%
Other
Cement
Waste 4%
2
CН4
6
11
CН4
Livestock
N 2O
Landfills
8
Fertilizers
Forests and land use -3 million tonnes
CO2
Emissions by gases
CO2
CH4
51 %
N2O
44 %
Emissions by years million tonnes 200
4% 100
CO2 0 Information is based on the national GHG inventories (2010-2012/2014)
1990
2000
2012
Uzbekistan Water
Melting glaciers, annual loss
0.1-0.5%
Flash floods
Glacier area, km2 120
Psk em
Su
rkh
60
an
da ry
Kas hk a
da r y
2000 2015
1980
Seasonal shift in river flow
a
20 0
1950
a Jan
1950s 2000s 2050s (projection)
Weather
Number of hot days
Long-term trends and variability of air temperatures
Jun
Dec
Number of cold days
Long-term variability of precipitation
humid
1950
1980
2000
2019
dry 1950
1980
2000
2019
to
Impact of climate extremes
Heavy rains
Dust storms Heatwaves, droughts
Strong winds
Urban flooding
Aral Sea
Climate change impacts and adaptation
Lower Amu Darya
Kyzylkum Tashkent to
Lower Zeravshan
Aral Sea
Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation
Nukus
Tashkent Navoi Samarkand
Useful links NATIONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF CENTRAL ASIA: OFFICIAL FORECASTS, CLIMATE AND WATER DATA Kazakhstan: kazhydromet.kz Kyrgyz Republic: meteo.kg Tajikistan: meteo.tj Turkmenistan: meteo.gov.tm Uzbekistan: meteo.uz
REGIONAL CLIMATE, WATER AND ENERGY INFORMATION Central Asia climate information portal: centralasiaclimateportal.org Central Asia Regional Environmental Centre (CAREC) carececo.org and its climate web-page: ca-climate.org Central Asia Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development (ICSD): mkurca.org Central Asia water and environmental information portal: cawater-info.net Central Asia Water and Energy Programme: worldbank.org/en/region/eca/brief/cawep
GLOBAL CLIMATE INFORMATION AND DATA PORTALS UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) greenhouse gas data by countries: di.unfccc.int/detailed_data_by_party UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) national communications: unfccc.int/non-annex-I-NCs and https://unfccc.int/NC7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: ipcc.ch International Energy Agency: iea.org weADAPT: weadapt.org and climate action in the mountains adaptationataltitude.org World Bank climate change knowledge portal: climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org World Meteorological Organization, climate data catalogue: climatedata-catalogue.wmo.int
Contacts The Regional Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB, Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC) Р0 Orbita-1, Republic of Kazakhstan, A15D5B3 camp4asb@carececo.org +7 727 265 43 34 carececo.org ca-climate.org
UZBEKISTAN The National Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB under the Agro Industry and Food Security Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan Labzak 1A St., Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan, 100000 info@rra.uz +998 71 241 45 30 uzaifsa.uz Center of Hydrometeorological Service (Uzgidromet) 72, 1st Proyezd Bodomzor Yuli, Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan, 100052 uzhymet@meteo.uz +998 71 237 35 11, +998 71 235 73 93 meteo.uz