Climate Change in the South Caucasus, 2011

Climate Change in the South Caucasus A Visual Synthesis

Climate Change in the South Caucasus Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports.

This is a Zoï Environment Network publication produced in close cooperation with the ENVSEC Initiative and the Governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.­Valuable inputs were received from the Regional Climate Change Impact Study for the Caucasus Region facilitated by the UNDP. OSCE has provided support­ for printing and dissemination. Additional financial support was received from UNEP Vienna — Environmental Reference Centre of the Mountain Partnership.

Printed on 100% recycled paper. © Zoï Environment Network 2011 The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment and security risks into regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multistakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and countries.

ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security risks in four regions: Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia.

This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Zoï Environment Network would appreciate receiving a copy of any material that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any commercial purpose what so ever without prior permission in written form from the copyright holders. The use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for advertising is not permitted.

The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the ENVSEC partner organizations and governments.­ The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of a commercial company or product does not imply endorsement by the cooperating partners. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.

2

Concept Zurab Jincharadze, Otto Simonett Collages Nina Joerchjan Maps and Graphics Manana Kurtubadze Text and interviews Zurab Jincharadze Design and Layout Manana Kurtubadze, Maria Libert Contributors and Interviewees Ramaz Chitanava, Nickolai Denisov, Harald Egerer, Farda Imanov, ­Medea Inashvili, Alex Kirby, Nato Kutaladze, Hamlet Melkonyan, ­Maharram Mehtiyev, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov, Marina Pandoeva, Marina Shvangiradze, Vahagn Tonoyan, Emil Tsereteli, Asif Verdiyev, Benjamin­ Zakaryan.

Contents

6

The South Caucasus at a Glance

18

Climate Change Trends and Scenarious in the Region

30

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation

40

Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures

3

Foreword Climate Change in the Caucasus — A my th no longer In Greek mythology the Caucasus is known as the place where Prometheus was chained to the mountain as punishment for stealing fire from Zeus and giving it to mortals. His liver is eaten by an eagle during the day, only to regenerate at night, until he is freed by Heracles who kills the eagle.

In the Book of Genesis, and the Koran, Mount Ararat — close to the Caucasus — is the place where Noah’s ark is stranded, saving Noah himself, his family and the world’s animals from the great floods.

So much for mythology and religion, but strangely enough, both narratives can be linked to climate change: on the one hand Prometheus bringing fire to mankind, starting a long chain of burning and releasing CO₂ to the atmosphere, eventually contributing to climate change; on the other hand Noah escaping the floods — one of the potential impacts of climate change.

As a stark contrast to its rich cultural diversity and beautiful environment, in the modern day Caucasus there are several unresolved — frozen — conflicts hampering the “normal” economic development of the region since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Predicted impacts of climate change will not make the region more secure.

With this publication, Zoï Environment Network aims to communicate the known facts of climate change in a well illustrated, easily understandable manner, accessible to everyone. For this we could rely on the rich Caucasian tradition of geographic analysis, map making and visual arts.

Unfortunately, the format did not allow the use of other Caucasian specialities, such as music, film, cuisine or toasts, it will be up to the reader to accompany his or her lecture with some of this. We do however want to make the point that also in the Caucasus, climate change is no more myth.

Otto Simonett Director, Zoï Environment Network Geneva, January 2012 4

Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums

Climate Change in the South Caucasus: key findings, trends and projections INDICATORS

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Air temperature (last half century)

Precipitation and snow (last half century)

Desertification

Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards (1990–2009) Melting ice (last half century)

Water resources availability in the future (2050–2100) Health Infectious and vector-borne diseases Greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2005

Greenhouse gas emissions 2000–2005

Policy instruments, actions and awareness

Climate observation and weather services (1990–2009) increase, enchancement

decrease, reduction

increase in some areas

Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia, 2010; Azerbaijan, 2010; Georgia, 2009.

5

Alazani valley from Sighnaghi, GEORGIA

The South Caucasus at a Glance

G r

Ter ek

Caspian

e

Elbrus 5 642

a

t

Abkhazia Sukhumi

uri ng

I

Poti

Kutaisi

i

L Batumi

Adjara

lak

Rioni

Rion

e

R U S S I A N F E D E R AT I O N

a u

s

Al

az

Kur

a

Gori

Akhaltsikhe

Telavi

Tbilisi

e

c

an

i

s

Kur

r

a

d be

Sheki

s

Alaverdi De Gyumri Vanadzor

r

m

e

n

i

a

A

Lake Sevan

u

Armavir

n

n

a

A

4 090 Aragats

Yerevan

Nagorno Karabakh

i

g

h

l

a

n

d

Lachin

s

H

Ararat 5 165

a

Ara

s

c

metres

T U R K E Y

A Z Nakhchivan

0 -500 -1,000 -1,500

Glaciers

Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Mingechevir reserv.

Mingechevir

Ganja

A R M E N I A

Kars

C

ta u n khi) o o c M or Ponti Ch ( h Ç oru

a

Iori

Rustavi

in

8

C

Tskhinvali

Kura

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 200 0 Depression

Su

5 033 Kazbek

G E O R G I A s

Makhac

Vladikavkaz

da

BLACK SEA

Grozny

Magas

Shkhara 5 068

Colchis Plain

Depression

Nalchik

Hraz

Sochi

Nakhchivan

Goris

u

s

Kapan

Meghri

Lake Van Van

Khankendi (Stepanakert)

I R A N

as

Ar

ian

ssion

GENER AL OVERVIEW

Makhachkala

The South Caucasus is located in the south-eastern part of Europe, between the Black and Caspian Seas. The furthest western and eastern boundaries of the region lie between 40°01’ and 50°25’ E, while the northern and southern ones are between 43°35’ and 38°23’ N. The region is bordered by Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South and by the Russian Federation in the North. The three South Caucasian republics — Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia — gained independence after the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991. Shortly after independence the region underwent devastating ethnic and civil wars, the consequences of which are still to be overcome.

CASPIAN SEA

I A N AT I O N

s

ur

m

u

Sa

UKRAINE

KAZAKHSTAN

s

Sheki

AZOV SEA

Mingechevir reserv. echevir

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Sumgayit NORTH CAUCASUS

Absheron

A Z E R B A I J A N

Baku

BLACK SEA

CASPIAN SEA

Kur

GEORGIA SOUTH CAUCASUS ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

a

nkendi nakert)

Kura-Aras Depression TURKEY

AZ

Neftchala

as

Ar

Ta l

ys

IRAN

Lankaran

h

CYPRUS 0

100 km

LEBANON

SYRIA

IRAQ 0

150 km

The South Caucasus at a Glance

9

Average Annual Temperatures in the South Caucasus Nalchik

Abkhazia

Çor

C uh (

r ho

hi) ok

Temperature (°C)

Adjara

Al

Gori

Akhaltsikhe

Kur

Telavi

a

Tbilisi

Kur

a

Alaverdi De Gyumri Vanadzor Kars

Armavir

Aras

16.0° 13.0° 10.0° 7.0° 5.0° 1.5° -1.0°

Io

ri

Sheki Mingechevir reserv.

AZERBAIJAN NagornoKarabakh

Yerevan

Lachin Goris

Nakhchivan

Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; World Trade Press, 2007.

Sumgayit

Mingechevir

Lake Sevan

AZ Nakhchivan Lake Van

i

Ganja

ARMENIA an

SEA

an

Rustavi d be

Kura

TURKEY

az

ur

GEORGIA

CASPIAN

Sa m

i

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N

Tskhinvali

d

Batumi

S

Kutaisi

Rion

k ula

Rioni

Hraz

Poti

SEA

Makhachkala

Vladikavkaz

I

BLACK

Grozny

Magas

k

n g uri

Sukhumi

Ter e

Kapan Meghri

IRAN

Baku

Kur

a

Khankendi (Stepanakert) as

Neftchala

Ar

0

100 km

Geography and Climate Almost every climatic zone is represented in the South Caucasus except for savannas and tropical forests. To the North, the Great Caucasus range protects the region from the direct penetration of cold air. The circulation of these air masses has mainly determined the precipitation regime all over the region.

Precipitation decreases from west to east and mountains generally receive higher amounts than low-lying areas. The

10 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

absolute maximum annual rainfall is 4,100 mm in southwest Georgia (Adjara), whilst the rainfall in southern Georgia, Armenia and western Azerbaijan varies between 300 and 800 mm per year. Temperature generally decreases as elevation rises. The highlands of the Lesser Caucasus mountains in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are marked by sharp temperature contrasts between summer and winter months due to a more continental climate.

Average Annual Precipitation in the South Caucasus Nalchik

Abkhazia

Poti

SEA

Batumi

i

S

Tskhinvali

GEORGIA

Adjara

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N Al

Gori

Akhaltsikhe

az

Kur

Telavi

a

Tbilisi

Rustavi Kur

Kura

hi) ok

TURKEY

Precipitation 2,000 mm 1,600 mm 800 mm 600 mm 400 mm 200 mm less than 200 mm

Kars

Armavir

Aras

ri

Sheki

Ganja

Mingechevir reserv.

AZERBAIJAN NagornoKarabakh

Yerevan

Lachin Goris

Nakhchivan

The average annual temperature in Armenia is 5.5°C. The highest annual average temperature is 12–14°C. At altitudes above 2,500 m the average annual temperatures are below zero. The summer is temperate; in July the average temperature is about 16.7°C, and in Ararat valley it varies between 24–26°C. The average annual temperature at the Black Sea shore is 14–15°C, with extremes ranging from +45°C to -15°C.

Sumgayit

Mingechevir

Lake Sevan

Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.

ur

m

Sa

Io

AZ Nakhchivan Lake Van

SEA

i

ARMENIA an

CASPIAN

an

Alaverdi Deb Gyumri Vanadzor d

or

a

ed

Hraz

Çor

Ch uh (

k ula

Rioni

Kutaisi

Rion

Makhachkala

Vladikavkaz

I

BLACK

Grozny

Magas

k

n g uri

Sukhumi

Ter e

Kapan Meghri

IRAN

Baku

Kur

a

Khankendi (Stepanakert) as

Neftchala

Ar

0

100 km

The climate in the plains of East Georgia and most of Azerbaijan is dry : in the lowlands, it is dry subtropical, and in mountainous areas alpine. The average annual temperature varies from 11 to 13°C in the plains, from 2 to 7°C in the mountains, and around 0°C in alpine zones. Depending on the altitude and remoteness from the Caspian Sea, climatic types in Azerbaijan vary from arid subtropical in the lowlands to temperate and cold in the high mountains.

The South Caucasus at a Glance 11

Tere k

Sochi Nalchik

Grozny

Abkhazia

Magas

Sukhumi

Makh

Vladikavkaz

lak

ng

uri

Su

Rioni

BLACK SEA

Rion

i

Poti

Kutaisi

Te r e

k

I

G E O RGIA Gori Batumi

Adjara

RUSSIAN

Tskhinvali Al

Kur

a

Telavi

Tbilisi

Akhaltsikhe

Rustavi

Kura

T U R K E Y

Alaverdi Gyumri

F EDERATIO N

az

an

i

Iori

ed

a

Ganja

Vanadzor

da

Subtropical forests Temperate forests

Mingechevir reserv.

Mingechevir

ARMENIA Armavir

Hraz

Floodplains and wetlands

Sheki

Kur

b De

n

Lake Sevan

Yerevan

Coniferous forests

NagornoKarabakh

Steppes

Lachin

Arid deserts and semi-deserts Sub-alpine and alpine meadows Glaciers

Sources: Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008; CEO-Caucasus-2002; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.

12 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

AZ

Nakhchivan

Nakhchivan

Goris Kapan

Khankendi (Stepanakert) as

Ar

Meghri

IRA

Ecosystems

Makhachkala

A N

CASPIAN SEA

T IO N

Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan

Ecosystems

r

The complex topography and diverse vegetation cover of the Caucasus is a main reason for an unusually large number of climatic zones and natural ecosystems on a relatively small piece of land like South Caucasus. The region ranges from the subtropical rainy type of forest of the south-east Black Sea coast to the high peaks of the Greater Caucasus, with their glaciers and snow caps, to the steppes and semi-deserts of the lowland east.

mu

Sa

heki

ngechevir reserv. evir

Sumgayit

A ZERBAIJAN Baku Kur

a

endi nakert)

as

Neftchala

Ar

IR A N 0

100 km Debed river at Northern Armenia The South Caucasus at a Glance 13

Population dynamics in 1989–2010 Million 10 Azerbaijan 9 8 7 6 Georgia 5 4 3 Armenia 2 1 0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010; World Bank statistics.

Population by age groups in 2010 10%

72%

7%

71%

14%

69%

18%

23%

17%

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

65 and over

15–64

0–14

Main figures Armenia: Total Population 3.249 millions (2010).

Total­ area 29,743 km². Population density 108.4 per km². Life expectancy 74 years. Net population ­migration -1.7 per 1,000 population.

Azerbaijan: Total Population 8.997 millions (2010).

Total area 86,600 km². Population density 105.8 per km². Life expectancy 70 years. Net population migration -1.4 per 1,000 population.

Georgia: Total Population 4.436 millions (2010).

Total area 69,700 km². Population density 68.1 per km². Life expectancy 72 years. Net population migration -18.1 per 1,000 population.

Urban and rural population in 2010

10% 36%

46%

47%

Rural

43%

64%

54%

53%

Urban

57%

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

70%

19% Total

Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.

14 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Total

Population in the South Caucasus

Terek

Abkhazia n g uri

I

Zugdidi Poti Batumi

Çoru h

(C

ho

Rion

i

GEORGIA ra

Adjara

i) kh ro

Ku

Al

Gori

Akhaltsikhe

az

Telavi

Tbilisi

Rustavi Kur

a

d

i

Hrazdan

Ara

1 dot = 500 inhabitants

2 millions

TURKEY

1 million

Lake Sevan

Yerevan

ri

Sheki Ganja

Mingechevir reserv.

Sumgayit

Mingechevir

AZERBAIJAN Nagorno Karabakh

Lachin Khankendi (Stepanakert) Goris AZ Nakhchivan Kapan as Ar Nakhchivan Meghri

Lake Van

Sources: CEO-Caucasus 2002; Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.

Shirvan

Baku

Kura

Urban population, 2009

an

Samur

Io

ARMENIA

Vagharshapat s

CASPIAN SEA

an

Alaverdi Debe Gyumri Vanadzor

Kura

Rural population, 2002

300,000 100,000–200,000 50,000–100,000

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N

Tskhinvali

Kutaisi

d

BLACK SEA

lak

Su

Rioni

Hraz

Sukhumi

Neftchala

IRAN 0

100 km

Little Cavemen from Gobustan, AZERBAIJAN The South Caucasus at a Glance 15

GDP in 1990–2010

Million USD

Azerbaijan

50

GDP per capita in 1990–2010

USD

Azerbaijan

6,000

40

5,000

30

4,000

Armenia

3,000

20

Georgia

10

Armenia

0

2,000

Georgia

GDP by sectors in 2010

1,000 0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Armenia

Source: World Bank statistics.

Source: UN statistics.

GDP by sectors in 2010

Services 31%

Economic Overview

Armenia

Industry 47%

Following the disintegration of the former Soviet Union 1990s meant the economies started to revive and then grow the economies of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia exrapidly. In Armenia and Azerbaijan, Agriculturethey grew at nearly­9% Serviceseconomic declines at the start of the 22% countries growth rates perienced dramatic a year from 1997 to 2002.

In these GDP by sectors in 2010 Industry 31% 1990s. For example in Armenia, between 1990 and 1993, were even higher in 2003 and 2004 (see table 16). In Geor47% the average annual decrease in GDP was about 18%; In gia economic growth has been unstable in recent years, Azerbaijan Armenia Agriculture Azerbaijan GDP fell by an annual average of about 13%, varying between about 1.8% in 2000, 10.6% in 1997, and 22% while in Georgia, it declined by 70–75% from 1991 to 1994.

6.2% in 2004. The real growth of GDP of Georgia in 2010 Services of economic reforms and the However, the launching Azerbaijan amounted to 6.4%.

Services Industry Industry 33% achievement of political stability by the second half of31% the 61%

47%

Services 33%

Industry

61% GDP by sectors in 2010 Agriculture 6%

Services 31%

Georgia

Industry Industry 47% 27% Agriculture 11%

Source: www.indexmundi.com

Services Industry Services 31% Industry 47% 33% Agriculture 22%

Agriculture 6%

Industry 61%

Services 33%

Services 62%

Azerbaijan Source: www.indexmundi.com

Industry 61% Industry

27%

AgricultureServices 6% 62%

Georgia Industry 27%

61%

Georgia

Azerbaijan

33% in the South Caucasus 16 Climate Change

Agriculture 6%

Armenia Azerbaijan

Armenia

Services Agriculture 62% 22%

Services

Agriculture

GDP by 22% sectors in 2010

Agriculture 11%

Agriculture 11%

Armenia

Land use in 2009

Georgia

Azerbaijan

12%

13%

4%

3% Agricultural land

32% 13%

55%

43%

Forest Water

71%

1%

12%

41%

Other

Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.

The Peace Bridge, Tbilisi, GEORGIA The South Caucasus at a Glance 17

Ararat Valley, ARMENIA

Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region

Changes of air temperature in the South Caucasus 1935–2008 for Armenia, 1936–2005 for Georgia, 1960–2005 for Azerbaijan

Changes of annual air temperature BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

TURKEY

CASPIAN SEA

ARMENIA

(C°) 1

AZERBAIJAN

0.5 AZ

0

IRAN

Changes of summer air temperature BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

CASPIAN SEA

(C°) 1.5

TURKEY

ARMENIA

1

AZERBAIJAN

0.5 AZ

0

IRAN

Changes of winter air temperature BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

CASPIAN SEA

(C°)

1 TURKEY

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

0.5 0

AZ IRAN

-0.5

Sources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.

20 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Regional Climate Change Trends To study global warming scenarios and risks associated with climate change trends on a regional level in the South Caucasus, the Environment and Security (ENVSEC) Initiative launched a project on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus implemented

by UNDP. The project brought together leading national experts engaged in the preparation of the second national communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia under the UNFCCC. Precipitation and temperature data from the key meteorological stations of the three South Caucasus countries were examined in the following sequence : Armenia — 32 stations for 1935–2008; Georgia — 21 stations for 1936–2005; Azerbaijan — 14 stations for 1960–2005. Temperature changes were assessed for the summer, winter and the whole year.

During the period from 1935 to 2009 in Armenia the annual average temperature increased by 0.85ºC, and in Azerbaijan by 0.5 to 0.6ºC since the 1880s, with the highest registered temperatures during the last 10 years. In Georgia from 1906 to 1995 the mean annual air temperature has increased by 0.1 to 0.5ºC in the eastern part of the country, whilst it has decreased by 0.1 to 0.3ºC in the west (Georgia’s Initial National Communication, 1999). However, if calculating for the last 50 years the data shows a different trend: during the 1957 to 2006 the mean annual temperatures increased by 0.2ºC in the western part and by 0.3ºC in the eastern Georgia (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009).

Regional differences are also reported from Azerbaijan, with the highest temperature increase in the Greater Caucasus and Kura‐Aras lowlands, and from Armenia, with the warmest regions in the Ararat lowlands and in the zone from the border of Georgia to Lake Sevan.

Relative humidity 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30%

Values of heat Index (human thermal comfort) 26°

27°

28°

29°

30°

31°

32°

33°

34°

35°

36°

37°

38°

39°

28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.8

30.7 30.2 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4

33.8 32.9 32.1 31.4 30.7 30.0 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1

37.1 35.9 34.7 33.7 32.7 31.8 31.0 30.3 29.7 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.9

40.7 39.1 37.7 36.3 35.0 33.8 32.8 31.9 31.1 30.3 29.7 29.2 28.8

44.7 42.7 40.9 39.2 37.6 38.7 34.9 33.7 32.6 31.7 30.9 30.3 29.7

48.9 46.6 44.4 42.3 40.4 38.7 37.1 35.6 34.4 33.3 32.3 31.5 30.8

53.5 50.8 48.1 45.7 43.5 41.4 39.5 37.8 36.3 34.9 33.8 32.8 32.0

58.5 55.2 52.2 49.4 46.8 44.4 42.2 40.2 38.4 36.8 35.4 34.3 33.3

63.7 60.0 56.5 53.3 50.3 47.6 45.1 42.8 40.7 38.8 37.2 35.8 34.7

63.7 65.1 61.2 57.5 54.2 51.0 48.1 45.5 43.1 41.0 39.1 37.5 36.2

75.1 70.4 66.1 62.0 58.2 54.7 51.4 48.5 45.8 43.4 41.2 39.3 37.8

81.2 76.1 71.3 66.8 62.5 58.6 55.0 51.6 48.6 45.9 43.4 41.3 39.4

87.7 82.1 76.8 71.8 67.1 62.7 58.7 55.0 51.6 48.5 45.8 43.3 41.2

Temperature (C°) 40° 41° 94.5 88.3 82.5 77.0 71.9 67.1 62.6 58.5 54.8 51.3 48.3 45.5 43.1

101.6 94.9 88.6 82.6 77.0 71.7 66.8 62.3 58.1 54.3 20.9 47.8 45.1

Note: Exposure to full sunchine can increase heat index values by up to 10°C Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.

Heat Waves The UNDP/ENVSEC regional climate study group constructed a regional model on the urban heat wave trends for some South Caucasian cities, including Tbilisi, Baku and Vanadzor. The study assessed one of the important indicators of climate change — the Heat Index that is a combination of air temperature and relative humidity during the warm periods of a year.

The table above demonstrates how Heat Indexes are “translated” to an actual feeling of human comfort when the temperatures (C°) are combined with the relative humidity

(%). The team explored daily meteorological data for warm periods (May to September) of the 1955–1970 and 1990– 2007­ time sequences, using PRECIS statistical analysis, and generated a forecast for 2020–2049. The calculation was based on the Global Climate Model — ECHAM. Analysis of the calculation and forecast models show that four out of six classes of Heat Indexes have risen during the last 15–20 years (1990–2007) and are expected to increase dramatically for one of three critical classes (orange/hot class with extreme warning of risk) during the coming decades.­

Comparison of “dangerous” days in Vanadzor, Tbilisi and Baku in the past and future Vanadzor

1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049

Tbilisi

1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049

Baku

1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049

Normal

1,283

773

868

1,338

1,349

1,525

508

872

1,037

Warm

682

1,551

2,558

796

843

1,161

463

607

1,063

Very warm

482

736

745

310

545

1,527

331

749

1,858

Hot

1

0

305

4

17

287

13

63

539

Very hot

0

0

113

0

0

0

0

0

3

Extremly hot

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Number of dangerous days

483

736

1,164

314

562

1,814

344

812

2,400

Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.

Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 21

Forecasted changes of annual air temperature in the South Caucasus (by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN)

Changes in 2011–2040 BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

TURKEY

CASPIAN SEA

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

(C°) AZ

1.5

IRAN

Changes in 2041–2070 BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

TURKEY

CASPIAN SEA

ARMENIA

(C°)

AZERBAIJAN

3

AZ

2.5

IRAN

Changes in 2071–2100 BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

TURKEY

CASPIAN SEA

(C°)

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

5 4

AZ IRAN

3.5

Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011

22 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

GCM PRECIS Models The analysis of climate change scenarios developed for all three South Caucasus countries using PRECIS outputs and the MAGICC/SCENGEN modelling tool revealed that changes of temperature by the end of the century will vary in the range of 3–6°C. According to the forecast made by the most appropriate models for the years 2070–2100 the highest increment in temperature, 7.7°C, should be anticipated in West Georgia in the summer. The lowest increment, for the same time period, 2.1°C, is expected in Armenia during the winter.

The expected increase in mean annual temperature is similar for Armenia and Georgia and is likely to be about 5°C. In Azerbaijan the expected increase is lower, around 3.6°C.

Forecasted changes of annual precipitation in the South Caucasus (by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN)

Changes in 2011–2040 BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

TURKEY

CASPIAN SEA

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

5% 0%

AZ

-5%

IRAN

Changes in 2041–2070 BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

TURKEY

CASPIAN SEA

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

0% -5%

AZ

-10%

IRAN

Changes in 2071–2100 According to the results shown by the HadCM3 climate modelling tool (which is a modification of HAD300 and is considered as best suited model to the Caucasus region) the decrease in annual precipitation in the period 2070–2100 will be around 15% for Azerbaijan and Georgia, rising to 24% for Armenia.

The highest decrease in precipitation is forecast for Georgia — 80.8% in summer and 68% in spring. The lowest decrease is expected in Azerbaijan, 11% in summer. The highest increase ( 22%) is likely also to be in Azerbaijan in the winter.

BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GEORGIA

TURKEY

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

CASPIAN SEA

-5% -10% -15%

AZ IRAN

-20%

Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011

Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 23

Changes in average annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia, 1940–2008 compared to 1961–1990 Temperature change (C°) 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1980

1990

2000

Precipitation change (mm) 100 50 0

Climate Change Trends in Armenia As a mountainous country with an arid climate, Armenia is highly vulnerable to global climate change. It’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC estimated deviations of annual air temperature and precipitation recorded in 1940–2008 from the average of the period of 1961–1990.

According to the study average annual temperatures have increased by 0.85°C, while annual precipitation decreased by 6% during the last 80 years.

However, the changes show different trends by regions and seasons. In general, the average air temperature has increased by 10°C in summer months, while it stayed stable in winter months. During the last 15 years summers were extremely hot, especially in 1998, 2000 and 2006.

The 2006 is considered the hottest recorded in Armenia between 1929 and 2008.

The spatial distribution of annual precipitation changes in Armenia is quite irregular; north‐eastern and central (­Ararat valley) regions of the country have become more arid, while the southern and north‐western parts and the Lake Sevan basin have had a significant increase in precipitation in the last 70 years.

-50 -100 1940

1950

1960

1970

Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.

Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia, compared to 1961–1990 Precipitation change (%)

(C°) Temperature change

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Annual

2030

1

1

1

1

1

2070

3

3

3

3

2100

4

5

4

4

Sources: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.

24 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Annual

2030

-3

-3

-7

1

-3

3

2070

-5

-5

-14

3

-6

4

2100

-7

-8

-19

3

-9

Changes in average annual Temperature in Azerbaijan, 1991–2000 compared to 1961–1990 Ganja

C° 2 1 0 -1 -2 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

C° 2

1998

1999

2000

Nakhchivan

1 0 -1 -2 -3 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

C°

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Climate Change Trends in a zerbaijan Climate change trends have been visible in Azerbaijan­ for some decades too. The data from the National ­Hydrometeorology Department for 1991–2000 show an increase in temperature by an average 0.41°C, which is three times larger than the increase from 1961 to 1990.

As part of the National Communication study, the average annual temperature and precipitation anomalies have been analysed in 7 regions of Azerbaijan for the period 1991 to 2000. Compared to the 1961–90 level, temperature anomalies were particularly visible in the Kura-Aras Lowland and ranged from -1.12°C to +1.91°C. The average annual precipitation was below the norm in almost all regions. However, differences seemed more significant in the Kura-Aras Lowland, where they were 14.3% lower, in Ganja-Gazakh (17.7%), and in ­Nakhchivan (17.1%).

In summary, over the past 10 years the rainfall level in Azerbaijan has fallen by 9.9%.

Absheron (Mashtaga)

2 1 0 -1 -2

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

C° 2

1998

1999

2000

Lankaran

1 0 -1 -2 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Sources: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.

Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 25

Changes in annual Temperature and Precipitation in Georgia 1951–2002 (C°) Temperature change Precipitation change (%) 120

7.5 7

110

6.5

100

6

90

5.5

1950

1960

1970

1980

2000 1950

1990

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: www.climatewizard.org

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Dedoplistskaro and Lentekhi 1990–2005 compared to 1955–1970 Precipitation change (%)

(C°) Temperature change 2

80

1.5

60 40

1

20

0.5

0

0

-20

-0.5 -1

-40 -60 I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX X

XI

XII

Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

Dedoplistskaro

IX

X

XI

XII

Lentekhi

Climate Change Trends in Georgia The latest studies of climate patterns in Georgia show changes of major parameters — mean and extreme air temperatures, relative humidity, moisture regimes, average annual precipitation, etc. — which clearly indicate an overall trend of changing climate in the region. The UNFCCC Second National Communication from Georgia identifies three areas as most sensitive to climate change and therefore vulnerable to future extremes: the Black Sea coastal 26 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

zone, Lower Svaneti (Lentekhi district) and Dedoplistskaro district of the Alazani river basin.

To investigate the climate change process in Georgia, a survey of climate parameter trends was undertaken for the whole territory and for the priority regions in particular. The trends of change in mean annual air temperatures, mean annual precipitation totals and in the moistening regime were estimated between 1955–1970 and 1990–2005.

Precipitation at different altitudes of the Alazani River catchment

Precipitation, mm 2,500 2,000

East part

1,500 1,000

West part

500 0

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000 Altitude, m

The statistical analysis revealed increasing trends in both mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation total from the first to the second period in all three priority regions, accompanied by a decrease in hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) in the Dedoplistskaro region, and its increase in the other two priority regions. At the same time, the rates of air temperature and precipitation change in priority regions were assessed for four time intervals of different duration (1906–2005; 1966–2005; 1985–2005 and 1995–2005). This survey demonstrated an exceptionally steep rise in annual air temperature in all three priority regions over the last 20 years.

Source: Calibration of hydrological model for the Alazani River in WEAP, UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.

Alazani River Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 27

Expected annual changes in air temperatures and precipitation in the Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins 2071–2100 compared with 1961–1990 ra

The Khrami-Debed River Basin

Ku

Khram

i

5°

Tbilisi K ur a

13%

Tsalka Eddikilisa

GEORGIA

i hram

K

Ma s h

Increase

ir Ta s h

Tashir

Stepanavan

4,8°

Temperature C°

Precipitation % Decrease

16%

15%

d

16%

Ijevan Dilijan

Vanadzor

Kvareli 5.8° 4.9° 5.3° 5%

8%

Telavi

5.2°

12%

5.3°

4.8°

Lagodekhi

Tbilisi

4%

Ku

ra

Zakatala

Gurjaani Tsnori

Ala

Temperature C°

Precipitation %

zan

i

i

Ior

4.8°

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

11%

8%

Increase

Sheki

11%

Decrease 0

50 km

AZERBAIJAN

AZ

The Alazani River Basin

Akhmeta

ARMENIA

5°

GEORGIA

7%

Khrami-Debed river basin

17%

ARMENIA

5.4°

Alazani river basin GEORGIA

5°

be

10 km

0

BLACK SEA

Red Bridge Sadakhlo

De

5°

Gargar Tumanian

Pa m bak

11%

Iori

Khra mi

5°

er

Dmanisi

a

av

Akhalkalaki

Bolnisi

CASPIAN SEA

AZERBAIJAN

28 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Mingechevir reserv.

Changes in hydrological balance in the Khrami-Debed and Ala z ani river basins The Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins are two important trans-boundary watersheds and major sub-basins of the greater Kura river, sharing scarce water resources between Armenia and Georgia (Khrami-Debed) and Azerbaijan and Georgia (Alazani).

This area is prone to land degradation and desertification from the forecast extremes of climate change, translating to economic losses and increased poverty for local population The UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus evaluated the vulnerability of these river basins to climate change using PRECIS and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning Model) tools to assess the changes expected in mean annual temperatures, precipitation and annual stream flows compared with the baseline years of 1961–1990.

The results of the study showed that immediate adaptation measures have to be taken by all riparian countries to overcome the expected losses to the economy of the region.

Changes in average annual stream flows at different points of the Khrami-Debed and Alazani rivers, baseline 1961–1990

29%

Khram i

1,593

The Khrami-Debed River Basin

50%

Tsalka Yeddikilisa

GEORGIA

924

Yeddikilisa Tumanyan

480 Gargar

Akhalkalaki

Dmanisi

mi Khra Bolnisi

Ma s h

Stepanavan

AZ

54%

Gargar Tumanyan

Ijevan Dilijan

Vanadzor

ARMENIA

The Alazani River Basin

Alazani

Akhmeta

Telavi

1,874 1,336

Tbilisi Ku

ra

Shakriani 27%

Kvareli

38%

Gurjaani

Lagodekhi Chiauri

Tsnori

i

Section 0

50 km

Confluence

Zemo Kedi

Difference with 2070–2100 (%)

AZERBAIJAN

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Zakatala

26% 44%

Ior

Difference with 2020–2050 (%)

Agrichay

Sources: Assessment of vulnerability of water resources to climate change, 2011; Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.

d

be

De

GEORGIA

3,502

Zemo Kedi

29%

10 km

3,118

Chiauri

Red Bridge Sadakhlo

31%

Pa m bak

Section 0

Average annual stream flow in the Alazani River (mln m³) in 1966–1990

ir Ta s h

Tashir

Shakriani

mi

54%

Difference with 2071–2100 (%)

29%

Khra

a

Sadakhlo Red Bridge

Difference with 2041–2070 (%)

51%

60% 40%

46%

28%

35%

i

336

ra

Alaza n

267

Ku

er

ra

Ku

av

Average annual stream flow in the Khrami-Debed River (mln m³) in 1966–1990

59%

Sheki

Ag

ric

ha

i

Mingechevir reserv.

Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 29

Neft Dashlari (Oily Rocks), AZERBAIJAN

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation

Greenhouse gas emissions in Armenia, 1990–2006* By gases

Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 25

25

24

24

N 2O CH4 CO2

23 22

Waste Agriculture Induatrial Processes Energy

23 22

21

21

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 1990

1995

2000

2005

1990

* Without LULUCF Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.

Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Armenia 1990 level

Waste Agriculture Induatrial Processes Energy

-100%

By sectors

Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.

32 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

0

+20%

+40%

1995

2000

2005

bed De

Ku

Economic map of Armenia

ra

r Io i

NS

GEORGIA

Kura

Alaverdi

Iron Cooper Copper-molybdenum Lead and zinc Chromite Aluminium

Mingechevir reserv.

Vanadzor Gyumri Artik

Coal BTC

, BS

Hrazdan

ARMENIA

Echmiadzin Aras

Nagorno Karabakh

Yerevan Ararat

Metallurgy Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Fruit-growering Vineyard Garden

NS

Armavir

AZERBAIJAN

Lake Sevan

BTE

Arable land

Khankendi (Stepanakert) Sisian

Goris

TURKEY Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan)

IRAN 0

50 km

Aras hydroscheme reserv.

Railway Roads

Kapan Meghri

Ara s

Oil pipeline Gas pipeline BTC BS BTE NS

— Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan — Baku-Supsa — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum — North-South

Sources: SoE-Armenia, 2002, GRID-Arendal; Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GENI.

Armenia: GHG emissions by economic sectors After the sharp economic decline of 1991–1994, Armenia was able to achieve economic stability and growth. Economic growth in 1995–2000 amounted to an annual average of 5.4%, and in 2001–2006 the average growth rate was 12.4%. These shifts have positively influenced the decline of Armenia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 declined by 81% compared with

the 1990 level, methane by 38% and nitrous oxide by 42%.

The energy sector accounted for the major part of the total­ GHG emissions in 1990–2006. However, energy-­ related emissions fell in that period — from 91% in 1990 to 64.7% in 2006 (Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010).

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 33

Greenhouse gas emissions in Azerbaijan, 1990–2005 By gases

Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 80

By sectors

Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 80

N 2O CH4 CO2

70 60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

Waste Agriculture Industrial processes Energy

70

0 1990

1995

2000

2005

1990

1995

2005

2000

Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.

Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Azerbaijan 1990 level

Waste

Energy

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.

Baku, AZERBAIJAN 34 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

0

NS

Al

Io

az

ri

Tbilisi

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

an

i

Mingechevir Mingechevir reserv.

Tovuz

Ganja

Yevlakh

BTC

BTE

AZERBAIJAN

, BS

Sumgayit

Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Refinery

Natural gas

Dubendi

Baku

Gypsum

ra

Neft Dashlari

Sangachal

Beylagan Khankendi (Stepanakert)

Salyan

Absheron

Aras hydroscheme reserv.

Nakhchivan

A

Iron Copper Molybdenum Lead and zinc Gold Railway Roads

Neftchala

Nakhchivan ras

Cement

Aluminium

Shah-Deniz

Ali-Bairamli

Fishery Oil

Chirag

Ku

NS

Nagorno Karabakh

AZ

Metallurgy

Kurdamir

Lake Sevan

ARMENIA

SEA

From

GEORGIA

Kazak hstan

CASPIAN

Samur

Economic map of Azerbaijan

Oil pipeline Gas pipeline Oil field Gas field

IRAN

Vineyard BTC — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan BS — Baku-Supsa Transport by tanker

Garden

BTE — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum NS — North-South

Arable land

Oil terminal

Cotton growing

Sources: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Arendal, Caucasus ecoregion, 2008; Azerbaijan international, 11.04.2003; European Tribune; StratOil; Londex Resources.

0

50 km

Sheep breeding

A zerbaijan: GHG emissions by economic sectors The economic potential of Azerbaijan is mainly determined by its oil and gas industry, the production of chemicals and petrochemicals, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, textiles and the food industry.

The agricultural sector consists mostly of wheat, cotton, wine, fruit, tobacco, tea, vegetables and cattle breeding.

The predominant part of Azerbaijan’s exports comes from

oil and oil products, electrical energy, cotton and silk fibres.

The level of GHG emissions in Azerbaijan in 2005 amounted to 70.6% of the 1990 base year level. The main sources of CO₂ emissions are the energy and industrial sectors, especially from burning fuel for energy production, oil and gas extraction, transport, and human settlements (Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010).

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 35

Greenhouse gas emissions in Georgia, 1990–2006 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent

By gases

50

45

45

N 2O CH4 CO2

40 35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5 0 1990

2000

2006

1990

Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009

Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Georgia 1990 level

Waste Agriculture Industrial processes Energy

-80%

Waste Agriculture Industrial processes Energy

40

0

-100%

By sectors

Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent

50

-60%

-40%

-20%

Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009 36 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

0

1995

2000

2005

Economic map of Georgia NS

Terek

Gagra

Sukhumi

k re Te

Abkhazia I nguri

Tkvarcheli

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N

BLACK SEA

Zugdidi Anaklia Kulevi Poti

50 km

Tskhinvali

Zestaponi

Kura

Gori

BTC

Akhaltsikhe BTE

Telavi

Kaspi

Tbilisi

GEORGIA

BT

C,

Kazreti

TURKEY

Debed

Gypsum

Refinery

Cement

Fishery Wine-producing

Gold

Source: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Tbilisi data.

Railway Roads Oil pipeline Gas pipeline

Garden Arable land

za

ni

Ku

ra

ARMENIA Vineyard

Ala

BS

E BT

Iron Manganese Copper Lead and zinc

Rustavi

Iori

Oil Natural gas Bituminous coal Brown coal Peat

BS

Ozurgeti

Adjara

ruh i) Ço okh r ho (C

Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials

Chiatura

Rioni

Batumi

Metallurgy

Tkibuli

Kutaisi

Supsa Kobuleti 0

lak

Su

i

on Ri

Oil terminal Transport by tanker

AZERBAIJAN BTC — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceihan BS — Baku-Supsa BTE — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum NS — North-South

Georgia: GHG emissions by economic sectors Georgia’s economic growth has become irreversible since 2004. Georgia’s industry consists of machinery, mining, the chemical industry, ferroalloys, wood, wine and mineral water.­ Agriculture has been a leading sector since Soviet times.

Traditional crops include grapes, wheat, maize, fruit (including citrus), and tea.

Total GHG emissions in Georgia began to sharply decrease after 1990. Since 1991, the share of the energy sec-

tor in total emissions has been decreasing almost continuously. In 2006, its share comprised 45.6%, while in 1990 it had been 76.3%. The share of emissions from industrial processes in 2006 was approximately the same as in 1987, though the actual emissions decreased by about four times. Key sources of GHG emissions in 2000 and 2006 did not change significantly compared with 1990. However, the relative importance of different sources has changed (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009).

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 37

Power Generation and Transmission in the South Caucasus Terek

Nalchik

Abkhazia

Magas Grozny In

Tkvarcheli

Sukhumi

Inguri Vardnili-1

Poti

Rion

i

Kutaisi

lak

Su

i

Rion

Zestaponi

Ksani

Gori

Adjara

oro Ch ( ruh Ço

1,300 MW 330–500 MW

Kars

300–550 MW

10–110 MW

110–220 MW

Transmission substations

Metsamor (440 MW)

800–1,200 MW

110–330 MW

Nuclear Power Plant

Aras

2,400 MW

Gas PP

500 kV

330 kV

330 kV

220 kV

220 kV

110 kV

110 kV

De

Shamkir

Mingechevir

Yenikend

Hrazdan

Azerbaijan

Argel Kanaker

Lake Sevan

Yerevan

AZ

Oil PP

Nakhchivan Lake Van

Mingechevir

Ganja

n

Yerevan

Samur

i

Mingechevir reserv.

Vanadzor

AZERBA NagornoKarabakh Khankendi (Stepanakert)

Goris Shamb Tatev

Kapan

Nakhchivan Meghri

IRAN Van

Sources: Ministries of Energy and Natural Resources of Armenia and Georgia; GENI; APESA, Global Energy Observatory.

38 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

d

an

Lachin

Transmission lines

500 kV

ri

ARMENIA

Thermal Power Plant

az

Io

be

Alaverdi Gyumri

Al

Gardabani

Mtkvari

Hraz da

Hydro Power Plant

Kura

)

Rustavi Tbilisi

Khrami 1 Khrami 2

TURKEY

Telavi

Tbilisi

Akhaltsikhe

i kh

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N

Tskhinvali Zhinvali

GEORGIA Batumi

Makhach

Vladikavkaz Lajanuri

BLACK SEA

ri gu

as

Ar

the Energy sector in the South Caucasus

asus

The sources and means of energy generation, despite coexisting in the same region, differ greatly in the South Caucasus countries. In a country rich in fossil fuels, oil products and natural gas are commonly consumed in Azerbaijan. Energy production there is based on natural gas, fuel oil and hydropower. Thermal power plants account for 89% and hydro-power for 10% of total energy generation.

Armenia does not possess its own fuel resources and satisfies its demand for fuel through imports. Its own primary energy resources (hydro, nuclear) cover 31% of the country’s total energy consumption. The main type of fuel consumed is natural gas. In 2000–2006, the share of natural gas in total fuel consumption reached 70–79%.

Over 80% of Georgia’s electricity is produced by hydropower. The rest mainly comes from thermal power plants, using gas exported from Azerbaijan and Iran. There is an economically viable potential of 32 TWh of hydropower production capacity, one of the largest in the world, of which only 18% is currently being utilized. Georgia became a net electricity exporter in 2007. With its massive unused capacity and its current per capita electricity consumption, one of the lowest in Europe, Georgia can easily increase its electricity exports while satisfying fast-growing domestic electricity consumption, which is rising by 8–9% annually (Second National Communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia).

Makhachkala

CASPIAN

SIAN AT I O N

SEA

Samur

vir reserv.

Mingechevir Sumgayit

Mingechevir

AZERBAIJAN

Absheron substation

Sumgayit

Baku

Shimal

Baku

Key sources of electricity in 2008 (in %) Armenia

Natural gas Oil products Hydropower

Shirvan

Kura

kendi panakert)

Azerbaijan

Nuclear

Neftchala

as

Ar

Georgia

N 0

100 km

Source: International Energy Agency.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 39

Hatsvali with Ushba Mountain, Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA

Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures

Black Sea Coast, Georgia

Ps o

u Bzib

Gagra

+0.4 m -0.6°

Sukhumi Coastal zone

Sea surface water temperature since 1991

G E OriR G I A o Kod

Sukhumi

The Rioni River delta

Abkhazia

%

+40

Zugdidi

en kh Ts Kulevi +1.6° Kutaisi +0. +0.7 m 3 m Samtredia Ri o n Poti Lake Supsa Paliastomi +0.45 m The Rioni River lower reaches +0.2 m Batumi Adjara C +1.3°

+40%

BLACK SEA

i

+60%

Sedimentation

is Rio t s k a li ni

Storm surges for the last half century

I nguri

Sea level rise for the last century

The Chorokhi River delta

horokhi

+60%

Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.

Caspian Sea Coast, Azerbaijan

RUSSIAN FEDERATION r

mu

Sa

300 0 500 100 0

20 00

SEA

42

Inundated area (km²) at two differents levels by four segments:

Sumgayit

200

AZERBAIJAN 1118 0

CASPIAN

Segment 1

72

60 38

Absheron

Baku

60 32

Segment 2

as Ar 200 500

372

0 200

Segment 3

Neftchala 60

1000

IRAN

Kura

Kura-Aras Lowland

32

Ta l

ys

h

Segment 4

Astara

-25.0 m BS -26.5 m BS

mBS -26 -27 -28 -29

Caspian Sea level change in 1840–2005

1840

1880

1920

1960

Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010; MENR-Azerbaijan.

42 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

2000

Impacts of Climate Change: The Black Sea Coast, Georgia The Georgian Black Sea coastal zone is considered the area most vulnerable to climate change in Georgia. Highly developed coastal infrastructure, with a dense network of railways and highways stretched along the coast, the important transportation and industrial hubs of port cities­ like Batumi, Poti and Sukhumi, and the great number of settlements all play a significant role in the regional economy. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC­ defines several specific sensitive areas along the coastal zone : Rioni river delta, Chorokhi river delta, the lower reaches of the Rioni river and the Sukhumi coastal area. Some studies suggest the Rioni delta is the most vulnerable area, already experiencing sea level rise and increased storm surges. This situation will trigger more change in the future, with a predicted temperature rise and consequent negative impact on the environment (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2010).

Impacts of Climate Change: The Caspian Sea Coast, A zerbaijan Sea level fluctuations are a major cause of concern for the Caspian Sea shoreline. As the largest naturally enclosed water body on Earth, with no outflow to the oceans, the Caspian Sea is particularly vulnerable to global climate change processes. Starting from 1961 a level of -28.0 m below sea level (BS) was conditionally taken as the zero point for the Caspian Sea for observation and planning purposes. Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication predicts a further increase of sea level for another 30 to 40 years within the range of -26.5 to -25.0 m BS. Projected damage to the economy would be within the magnitude of USD 4.1 bn. Consequently Azerbaijan is preparing to take adaptation measures (Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010).

Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in the Lake Sevan basin, compared to 1961–1990 Precipitation change (%)

Temperature change (C°) Winter 2030 2070 2100

1.4 3.2 4–6

Spring 0.9 2.1 2.5–4.5

Summer 1.8 3.9 5–7

Autumn 1.8 3.9 5–7

Annual 1.5

2030

3.3 4.1–6.1

2070

2100 Sources: Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009.

Autumn

Annual

-9

-2

- 5.5

-5

5

2.8

-7

-18

-4

-11

15

11

-11

11

6

East shore

-20

-10

-25

-5

-15

West shore

20

10

-15

15

7.5

Winter

Spring

East shore

-7

-4

West shore

7

+4

East shore

-15

West shore

Summer

Calm and nice Lake Sevan, sometimes as stormy as any sea Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 43

Mudflow and landslide high risk zones in the South Caucasus

Terek

Nalchik

Abkhazia

Poti

SEA

Batumi

Su

i

G E O R G I A Gori Adjara

Al

az

Kur

a

Telavi

Tbilisi

Kur

a

Kars

ri

Ganja

NagornoKarabakh

Nakhchivan

Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication, 2010; Alizadeh E.K. (2007); MEP-Georgia.

Sumgayit

AZERBAIJAN

Goris AZ Kapan Nakhchivan

Landslide

Mingechevir reserv.

Mingechevir

Lachin

Lake Van

Mudflow

Yerevan

Ara

Euphrates

Samur

Io

Lake Sevan

s

Armavir

an

SEA

Sheki

ARMENIA d

TURKEY

i

d

Alaverdi Debe Gyumri Vanadzor

Kura

Hraz

Çoru h

an

Rustavi

CASPIAN

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N

Tskhinvali

Kutaisi

Akhaltsikhe

o (Ch

lak

Rioni

Rion

i) kh ro

Makhachkala

Vladikavkaz

I

BLACK

Grozny

Magas

n g uri

Sukhumi

Baku

Kur

a

Khankendi (Stepanakert) as

Ar

Neftchala

Meghri

IRAN

0

100 km

IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE: nATuR AL DISASTERS There are major climate change impacts taking place in the South Caucasus, as shown by the observations of the national hydrometeorology services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. In particular, there is a recorded increase in both mean and extreme air temperatures, in addition to changes in rainfall amounts and patterns. Climate change projection models predict even more increase of extreme weather conditions, translating to a heavier and uneven

44 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

seasonal distribution of precipitation with possible dramatic consequences. As a result, the probability of devastating natural disasters such as landslides, avalanches, river floods, flash floods and mudflows, causing human casualties and economic losses, is expected to rise in the near future (Second National Communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia).

Flooding and avalanche high risk zones in the South Caucasus

Terek

Nalchik

Abkhazia

Poti

SEA

Batumi

S

Tskhinvali

Kutaisi

Rion

i

Al

az

Kur G E O R G I A Gori a Adjara Tbilisi

Telavi

a

d Hraz

an

Ara

Flood

ri

Avalanche

Mingechevir reserv.

AZERBAIJAN

NagornoKarabakh Lachin

Lake Van

Goris AZ Kapan Nakhchivan Nakhchivan Meghri

Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication, 2010; Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. (2010); SoE-Georgia, 2007–2009; ReliefWeb.

Georgia is particularly exposed to weather extremes, most likely because of its closer proximity to the Black Sea, abundance of water resources, larger amount of ­annual and seasonal precipitation, high soil humidity, etc. The damage caused by the flooding during the last three years was put at USD 65 m. An increasing frequency and intensity of avalanches has been detected since the last decades of the 20th century. More than 20,000 people were

Sumgayit

Mingechevir

Lake Sevan

Yerevan

s

Armavir Euphrates

Samur

Io

Ganja

ARMENIA

Kars

SEA

Sheki

Alaverdi Deb Gyumri Vanadzor

i) kh ro

TURKEY

i

ed

Kura

CASPIAN

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N

an

Rustavi Kur

Çoru h

k ula

Rioni

Akhaltsikhe

o (Ch

Makhachkala

Vladikavkaz

I

BLACK

Grozny

Magas n g uri

Sukhumi

IRAN

Baku

Kur

a

Khankendi (Stepanakert) as

Ar

Neftchala

0

100 km

displaced from their homes between 1970 and 1987. About 53,000 locations damaged by gravitational landslides had been identified by 2009. Mudflows are estimated to cause damage of approximately USD 100 m annually. Overall, economic damage caused by mudflows in Georgia over the period 1987 to 1991 exceeded USD 1 bn; the damage­ caused by mudflows from 1995 to 2008 was over USD 330 m (State of the Environment Georgia, 2010).

Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 45

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: Glacier Melting

1972

2002

In these pictures: Melting of the Laboda Glacier in Georgia: photos taken in 1972 and 2002.

Source: Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.

G lacier melti n g i n t h e Cau cas u s Glaciers are sensitive to climate change. Some climatologists suggest the contribution of melting glaciers to sealevel rise may have been increasing by as much as 27% for the last few decades (Dyurgerov, 2003). The climate change scenarios published by the IPCC predict up to 60% glacier loss in the northern hemisphere by 2050 (Schneeberger et al 2003). The Earth Policy Institute (www.earth-policy.org) says glacial volume in the Caucasus has declined by 50% during the last century and will decrease more severely in the foreseeable future. Glaciers are very important water resources for local communities, and play a significant role in the water budget. Smaller glaciers are known to respond more rapidly to climate change and are therefore more important in calculating overall impact.   Glaciers cover an area estimated at around 1,600 km² in the Caucasus. Exact up-to-date information on the changes in their mass balance is not available. There is visual evidence of glacier recession in the Caucasus, but information concerning the latter stages is limited. However those studies that have focused on glacier change in the Caucasus (Bedford and Barry, 1994) reported a strong retreat trend 46 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Laboda-Zopkhito Glaciers

GEORGIA

Shkelda-Djankuat Glaciers zone

for 51 glaciers between 1972 and 1986. Chris R. Stokes, Stephen D. Gurney, Maria Shahgedanova, Victor Popovin (Late 20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia) analysed glaciers of the central Caucasus region, extending the analysis of Bedford and Barry, and showed that the retreat trend has continued throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Melting rates have greatly accelerated since the mid-1990s. Moreover, the study indicates that the retreat of Caucasus glaciers from the mid1970s to 2000 correlates well with the temperature record.

In this picture: retreat of two glaciers on the South slope of the central Caucasus­­ —­ the Loboda and Zopkhito glaciers, between 1971 ( yellow ) and 2009 ( blue ). The data on the image­is a combination of ­CORONA imagery dating from 1971, ­a SPOT image of 2007 and a Digital Globe image ( Google Earth ) of 2008.

Glaciers melting in south part of the Central Caucasus N

Laboda Glacier

Source : Lambrecht, A., et al (2011).

Zopkhito Glacier

GEORGIA Glacier boundary in 2009 Supra-glacial debris cover (trace of glacier) in 1971

Source: Lambrecht A., et al (2011).

In this picture: retreat of six neighbouring glaciers in the central Caucasus between 1985 ( yellow ) and 2000 ( red ), including Djankuat glacier ( furthest east ), which has an extensive mass balance record, and Shkhelda glacier ( furthest west ) with one of the largest retreat rates in the Caucasus

500 m

0

Glaciers melting in north part of the Central Caucasus N

RUSSIAN FEDERATION Kashkatash Glacier

Source : Stokes, C. R., et al (2006).

Shkhelda Glacier

Bashkara Glacier

Bzhedukh Glacier

Glacier line Source: Stokes, C. R., et al (2006).

Another group of scientists (Lambrecht et al, 2011) focused their study also on the central part of the Greater Caucasus — the Djankuat glacier (Russia) and the Zopkhito­ glacier (Georgia). The results of the study show that at the southern end of the Caucasus range the exposition (southern slope) causes higher radiation input and thus more in-

in 1985

in 2000

Djankuat Glacier

0

1 km

tensive ice melt. However, high cloudiness due to higher radiation input also provides higher precipitation in the south than in the north. As a result, the effective glacier melt is about 20% less in the south. Both regions experienced strong glacier area loss during recent decades and a gradual increase in debris cover (Lambrecht, et al, 2011).

Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 47

Potential impact of climate change on winegrowing zones of Georgia Terek

Abkhazia

Lechkhumi

ek

I nguri

r Te

Zemo Svaneti

Sukhumi

i

on Ri

SEA

Samegrelo

Poti

Rion

i

Imereti

Tskhinvali

Kutaisi

Batumi

Kura

Samtskhe

Landslide area

Drought area

Mudflow area

Hystoricalgeographycal border

Tbilisi

Javakheti

Red, white and sparkling wines

Ala

Kakheti

Kvemo Kartli

ARMENIA

Source: MEP-Georgia; Georgian Wine booklet, 2001.

Rustavi

GEORGIA

za

ni

Ku

ra

i

Flooding area

Telavi

Ior

Winegrowing area (existing and potential)

Tusheti

Pshavi

Gori

Tori

Akhaltsikhe

TURKEY

Mtiuleti

Khevsureti

Shida Kartli

Guria Achara

lak

Su

Khevi

Racha

BLACK

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N

Kvemo Svaneti

ed

b De

0

Mingechevir reserv.

50 km

AZERBAIJAN

Impact of Climate Change on Winegrowing Zones of Georgia Viticulture and wine production is one of the most viable and oldest agricultural activities that have been carried out for centuries in South Caucasus and particularly Georgia.

Both archaeology and history show that Georgia was cultivating grapevines and practicing ancient wine production more than 7,000 years ago (Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia,­ 2011 — www.samtrest.gov.ge). In many regards Georgia’s identity was closely connected with wine production, which was very popular among the former Soviet states and always highly prized.

Georgia has excellent conditions for viticulture. A moder48 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

ate climate with a sufficient number of sunny days, frost-free winters and moist air, in combination with fertile soils, mineral-rich and clean spring waters and a vast diversity of endemic agricultural species provide outstanding conditions for it. The total share of agriculture in the country’s GDP is about 10–14%, with viticulture and wine production playing a very important role (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009). However, increasing natural disasters and specific weather extremes caused by global climate change that is already affecting Georgia and especially its grapegrowing zones may jeopardize the sector considerably.

Grape Varieties

Vineyard area in the South Caucasus in 2009 Percent of agriculture land Armenia

0.8%

0.3%

1.2%

Area thousand ha

Azerbaijan Georgia

16.5

15

37.4

Sources: State statistical services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, Year Books, 2010.

Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 49

Number of tourists in the Upper Svaneti in 2009–2011 2011

26,000 (prognosed)

2010

13,000

2009

6,200

Source: www.komersanti.ge (6.01.2011)

Number of tourists in Georgia in 2000–2011 Million 3 2 1 0

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Source: Georgian National Tourism Agency.

Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA

THE Impact of Climate Change on GEORGIA’S Tourist Sector: Upper Svaneti The Upper Svaneti region of Georgia has been a very popular tourist destination for a long time. Unique and mostly untouched natural landscapes, high mountains, abundant historical monuments and its exceptional cultural heritage are only few of the wonders ensuring this popularity.

Access to this region has never been easy though, due to its rigid topography and the dilapidated infrastructure in post-Soviet Georgia, exhausted by ethnic conflicts, civil wars and consequent economic devastation. Attention to 50 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Svaneti has increased considerably in recent years, after the launch of infrastructure rehabilitation projects and the construction of hotels and a brand new airport in Mestia (the regional capital). The airport now has a modern navigation system and connects Svaneti to major Georgian airports, as well as some international destinations. The number of visiting tourists has doubled compared with recent years, since a ski resort (operating for about six months each year) was developed in Hatsvali, a highland

e

r

G

Potential impact of climate change in the a Upper Svaneti touristic zone t

GEORGIA

Hatsvali

Shkhelda 4,368 m

Tita

Naki

Mazeri Iskari

Mestia

Ienashi

ra lkh

ila

La

Khaishi

S

r

a

n

ist i al

sk Avalanche hazard Very strong Strong

n

r

a

Dolra

g

Mananauri

e

Khe

led

ula

Tsanashi

n

Tskh e

Tsana

nists

kali

Mele

Lentekhi Motor road Dirt road

Glaciers

Svaneti priority conservation area

Airport

(WWF-Caucasus proposal)

resort close to one of the most charming mountain peaks of Georgia — Ushba (4,710 m above sea level). Access to the UNESCO world heritage site at Ushguli has also been restored. However, an increased number of tourists will also mean increased pressure on the fragile natural eco-

s

Shkhara 5,068 m uri Ing

e

Forest area

Sources: MEP-Georgia; MENR-Georgia; 1:50,000 Topographic maps.

Gistola 4,853 m

Chazhashi

g

Landslide hazard

Moderate

UNESCO World Heritage Site

Tvibi

ra

i

ob Kh

s

i

u kad

g

i

Adishi

Iprari

Las

a

leti

Kas

E

r

t

Tetnuldi 4,852 m

Zhabeshi

Laila 4008 m

e

v

Tsaneri

Tsaneri

Ieli

ri

Khudoni reserv. (projected)

Lakhiri Tsvirmi

Mu

Ingu

a

la

u

In

Ushba 4,710 m

lra

Do

i

r gu

Ipari

c

Lekhzir

s

Ushba

u

tiac M es ha

ns

Ne

Nakra

lra

kra

a

C

Do

Historical monument Ski resort

0

10 km

systems in coming years. This will become an even more sensitive issue as the region is located in the landslide and avalanche high-risk zone and changing climate patterns, with the predicted temperature rise and precipitation decrease, are cause for serious concerns.

Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 51

Potential impact of climate change in the South Caucasus Ter e

Nalchik

k

Magas Grozny

sk he n

BLACK Poti

SEA

s ist

k

T

Rion

lak

Su

Lentekhi i Rion Tskhinvali

Kutaisi

RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N

i

GEORGIA

Gori

Kur

Telavi

a

Adjara

Batumi

Rustavi

TURKEY Alaverdi

Kura

Gyumri Kars Aras

az

Sheki

Mingechevir

NagornoKarabakh

Potential inundation area due to sea levele rise

Lachin

Glaciers melting

Nakhchivan

AZ

Depopulation due to increase natural disasters Spread of malaria Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia-2010, Azerbaijan-2010 and Georgia-2009; MEP-Armenia; MEP-Azerbaijan; MEP-Georgia; WHO-Europe.

52 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Lake Van

AZE

Lake Sevan

Yerevan

Land degradation and desertification

Mingechevir reserv.

Ganja

an

Increased fashfloods due to weather extremes

Depletion of water resources

Samur

i

ra

Vanadzor

ARMENIA

an

Ku

ed

b De

Hra zd

) hi

Al

Iori

Tbilisi

Akhaltsikhe

k oro Ch ( ruh Ço

Makhach

Vladikavkaz

a li

Abkhazia

Ingur i

Sukhumi

Goris

Khankendi (Stepanakert)

Kapan

as

Ar

Nakhchivan Meghri

IRAN

Index of vulnerability to climate change* Tajikistan Albania Kyrgystan

Index of vulnerability to climate change* ARMENIA

Makhachkala

GEORGIA

Tajikistan Uzbekistan

Albania AZERBAIJAN Kyrgystan Turkmenistan

ARMENIA Turkey

CASPIAN

IAN AT I O N

Moldova GEORGIA

SEA

Serbia Uzbekistan Macedonia (F.Y.R.) AZERBAIJAN Turkmenistan Russia Turkey Bulgaria Moldova Bosnia

Samur

Serbia Kazakhstan Macedonia (F.Y.R.) Romania

Sheki

Russia Ukraine Bulgaria Belarus

Mingechevir reserv.

Bosnia Croatia

Sumgayit

AZERBAIJAN

Kazakhstan Poland Romania Latvia Ukraine

Baku

Belarus

Hungary

SlovakiaCroatia

Sensitivity to climate change

Poland Estonia

Exposure to impacts Adaptive capacity

Kura

kendi anakert)

Lithuania

Latvia Czech Republic Lithuania Slovenia

Neftchala

10

as

8

6

4

2

0

Sensitivity to climate change Increasing and exposure Exposuresensitivity to impacts

Ar

N 0

100 km

Hungary -2 -4 -6 Slovakia

Adaptation capacity Estonia

Adaptive *Vulnerability tocapacity climatein change is a2009. combination i) exposure Czechof: Republic Source: Climate Change Central Asia, to hazards, measuring the strength of future climate change relaSlovenia tive to today’s climate; ii) sensitivity, indicating which economic sectors and ecosystem services are likely to be affected in view of climate change, e.g. renewable water resources, agriculture 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 and hydro-power production ; and iii) adaptive capacity to climate change, e.g. social, economic, and institutional settings to reIncreasing sensitivity exposure Adaptation capacity spond to weather shocksand and variability.

Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009.

Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 53

Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus Water resources land and water Land contamination by pesticides and heavy metals, salinization of soils, overgrazing pastures, illegal and ill-maintained waste dumps close to water streams, glacier melting, depletion of freshwater sources (eastern part of South Caucasus) lack of safe and good quality of drinking water.

Food security Biodiversity Social problems

Impact on livelihoods, agriculture, human health

FLOODS AND NATUR AL DISASTERS Increased number of catastrophic floods due to weather extremes (Black Sea coast, Alazani Valley, Kura lowland in Azerbaijan), devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, flash-floods, avalanches in mountainous zones, inundation of croplands, settlements at lowlands.

Impact on livelihoods, infrastructure, threat to human life and health, local and transboundary problems, deterioration of social conditions

Agriculture Land degradation and desertification (eastern part of South Caucasus), salinization, droughts, coastal inundation and bogging (Black and Caspian Sea coastal zones), loss of soil fertility, decrease of crop production, degradation of wine- and citrus-growing zones.

Impact on livelihood and food security

54 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

FORESTS, FAUNA AND FLORA Displacement of natural boundaries at sensitive areas of eastern South Caucasus (temperate forest ecosystems), loss of resilience of flora and fauna to invasive species, loss of natural ecosystem “corridors” for migration of rare and endemic species, increased cases of forest fires, degradation of landscape diversity, loss of biodiversity.

Impact on livelihoods, biodiversity, freshwater resources, agriculture, human health

sea and coastal Sea level rise, land inundation, coastal erosion, increased number of storm surges, pollution of sea water by oil products (Caspian Sea) and by untreated wastewater discharge (Black and Caspian Seas), coastal line change, lack of safe drinking water, decrease in number and diversity of marine specifies, deterioration of coastal infrastructure, spread of Malaria at inundated areas (eastern part of South Caucasus).

Impact on coastal and sea biodiversity, livelihoods, agriculture, transport and other infrastructure, tourism

PEOPLE AND WELLBEING Depopulation and eco-migration due to increased number of devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, avalanches at highland zones of Adjara and Svaneti (Western Georgia), lack of safe drinking water and food, increase of poverty, spread of infectious diseases, increased stress due to heat waves, increased cases of cardiovascular diseases.

Threat to human life, health and social conditions

Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus 55

References Main background documents:

Caucasus Environment Outlook (2002), UNEP.

First National Communication of the Republic of Armenia (1998). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia.

Climate Change in Central Asia (2009). Zoï Environment Network.

Armenia’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia.

Dyurgerov, M.B. 2003. Mountain and subpolar glaciers show an increase in sensitivity to climate warming and intensification of the water cycle. ­J. Hydrol.,­282(1–4), 164–176.

Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus (2010), Autrement, Paris.

Initial National Communication of Azerbaijan Republic on Climate Change (2000). National Climate Research Centre.

Georgian National Tourism Agency.

Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic.

Georgian Wine booklet (2001), Tbilisi.

Georgia’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations framework convention on Climate Change (1999). National Climate Research Centre.

GRID-Tbilisi data. European Tribune: www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/11/20/113536/31

GRID-Arendal (2008) Caucasus ecoregion.

Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.

Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009). Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia.

Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region (2011). ENVSEC, UNDP. Additional references: Alizadeh E.K. Sustainable development of mountain geosystems in the conditions of strengthening morphodynamic intensity (on an example of Azerbaijan), the bulletin of the Vladikavkaz centre of science, 2007, n°3.

Assessment of vulnerability of water resource to climate change in transboundary river basins (Khrami-Debed and Aghstev) and recommendations on the corresponding adaptation measures. Yerevan, 2011.

Association of the power engineers and specialists of Azerbaijan (APESA): www.azenerji.com.

Azerbaijan international Magazine (11.04.2003): www.azer.com — Pages similaires

Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. Needs Assessment of a Flood Early Warning System in Georgia. Disaster Risk Reduction Consultancy Report. June 2010, UNDP. Tbilisi, Georgia.

Commersant. Online Magazine (6.01.2011): www.commersant.ge Lambrecht A., Mayer C., Hagg W., Popovnin V., Rezepkin A., Lomidze N. and Svanadze D. A comparison of glacier melt on debris-covered glaciers in the Northern and Southern Caucasus. The Cryosphere Discuss., 5, 431– 459, 2011: www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/431/2011/ Londex Resources: www.londex.org/projects.html Melconyan H., Hovsepyan A. Climate Change Scenarios over South ­Caucasus Region. UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.

Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Wild. 2003. Modeling changes in the mass balance of glaciers of the northern hemisphere for a transient 2xCO₂ scenario. J. Hydrol., 282, 145–163.

Bedford, D.P. and Barry, R.G. 1994. Glacier trends in the Caucasus, 1960s to 1980s. Phys. Geogr., 15(5), 414–424.

State of the Environment of Armenia (2002), GRID-Arendal.

Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008.

State of the Environment of Georgia (2007-2009). Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia.

56 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

State of the Environment of Georgia (2010), draft report. Ministry of Environ足 mental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia.

Stokes, C.R., Gurney, S.D., Shahgedanova, M., Popovin, V. 2006. Late20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains, 足Russia/Georgia. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 52 No. 176.

StratOil: www.stratoil.wikispaces.com/Azerbaijan UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.

Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009.

Statistical Year Book of Azerbaijan, 2010: www.azstat.org/statinfo/demoqraphic/en/index.shtml; www.azstat.org/statinfo/environment/en/index.shtml Statistical Year Book of Georgia, 2010: www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_ files/yearbook/Statistical%20Yearbook_2010.pdf Azerbaijan National Hydrometeorological Department: www.eco.gov.az/en/prog-buro.php Climate Wizard: www.climatewizard.org Earth Policy Institute: www.earth-policy.org Index Mundi: www.indexmundi.com

World Trade Press, 2007.

1:50,000 Topographic maps.

Institute for Atmospheric Physics: www.dlr.de/pa/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2559/3824_read-5749

Online databases and information sources:

Global Energy Network Institute (GENI): www.geni.org

Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia: www.mnp.am

Global Energy Observatory: www.globalenergyobservatory.org

Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic: www.eco.gov.az

International Energy Agency: www.iea.org PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System: www.metoffice.gov.uk/ precis

Ministry of Environment Protection of Georgia: www.moe.gov.ge ReliefWeb: www.reliefweb.int/countries Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Georgia: www.menr.gov.ge United Nations statistics: www.unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia: www.moa.gov.ge WHO-Europe, Malaria: www.euro.who.int Climate Change Information Center of Armenia: www.nature-ic.am World Bank statistics: www.data.worldbank.org Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service: www.meteo.am National Environmental Agency of Georgia: www.meteo.gov.ge

Photos: Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums: www.utexas.edu/courses/larrymyth/2Prometheus2009.html

National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia: www.armstat.am Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Jincharadze Z., 2007.

The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan: www.azstat.org

Debed river at Northern Armenia, Jincharadze Z., 2007

National Statistics Office of Georgia: www.geostat.ge

Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA, Naveriani V.

Statistical Year Book of Armenia, 2010: www.armstat.am/en/?nid=45&year=2010

References 57

Abbreviations and Glossary APESA AZ BS CEO CORONA ECHAM

ENVSEC GCCP GCM GDP GEF GEL GENI GHG GRID HAD300 HADCM

HADCM3 HTC LULUCF MAGICC/ SCENGEN

Association of the Power Engineers and Specialists of Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Baltic Sea Caucasus Environment Outlook Series of American strategic reconnaissance satellites produced in 1959–1972 Global climate model for climate research. The model was given its name as a combination of its origin, the “EC” being short for ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and the place of development of its parameterisation package, Hamburg.

The Environment and Security Initiative Global Climate Change Processes Global Circulation Model Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Georgian Lari Global Energy Network Institute Greenhouse Gas Global Resource Information Database One of the global circulation model (GCMs) Hadley Centre Coupled Model (Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom) Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 Hydrothermal Coefficient Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MAGICC: User-friendly software package that takes emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, and sulphur dioxide as input and gives global-mean temperature, sea level rise, and regional climate as output.

SCENGEN: Regionalization algorithm that uses a scaling method to produce climate and climate change information on a 5° latitude by 5° longitude grid.

58 Climate Change in the South Caucasus

MENR MEP Mil PP PRECIS SoE SPOT

TWh UN UNDP UNESCO UNFCCC USD WEAP WHO

Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Ministry of Environment Protection Million Power Plant In French précis — “PRAY-sea” — is based on the Hadley Centre’s regional climate State of the Environment In French: Système Probatoire d’Observation de la Terre. Probationary System of Earth Observation — high-resolution, optical imaging Earth observation satellite system operating from space Terawatt hour United Nations United Nations Development Programme The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United States Dollar Water Evaluation and Planning Model World Health Organization

Chemical Combinations CO₂ CH₄ N₂O

Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide

The Georgian artist, Nina Joerchjan, has produced a set of collages to illustrate the Zoï Environment Network publication, Climate Change in the South Caucasus. At first sight: beautiful renderings of mountain landscapes, vineyards, fruits, animals and archaic architecture. In the long tradition of the region’s folk art, many scenes — such as Ararat mountain — are immediately recognizable as Caucasian icons. The images evoke Pirosmani, although people — the main subject of the famous Georgian painter at the turn of the twentieth century — are almost completely absent.

But why use such a traditional and happy style to illustrate

such a grim and existential subject as climate change? The ­answer comes in a second, closer look that the artwork ­deserves. New elements appear: an oil platform, a ski lift and a somewhat strange, turtle-like structure giving the ­Tbilisi skyline a new look. Even without these modern elements, a sense of fragility becomes obvious. An idyll in the process of being destroyed, nature and livelihoods being threatened, climate change being real. The artist has found a silent, non-alarmist tone to show that things are still there, however fragile. It is up to us to preserve this unique heritage. There may still be time.

Abbreviation/Nina Joerchjan 59

ZoĂŻ Environment Network Tel. +41 22 917 83 42 www.zoinet.org enzoi@zoinet.org

International Environment House Chemin de Balexert 9 CH-1219 Châtelaine Geneva, Switzerland