Weather, Climate and Water in Central Asia by Zoï Environment Network

Weather, Climate and Water

in Central Asia

A Guide to Hydrometeorological Services in the Region

This publication has been made possible by the generous support of the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Disclaimer This work is a product of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colours, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licences, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to:

The Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC20433, USA; fax: +1 (202) 522-2422; email: pubrights@worldbank.org Art work, cover page and layout: Maria Libert

Graphical design: Carolyne Daniel and Alexandra Povarich

Cartography: Matthias Beilstein with inputs from Vladislav Sibagatullin

Editorial and production team: Daniel Kull, Viktor Novikov, Geoff Hughes

Contributors (in alphabetic order): Abdysharip Bekylov, Ayaulym Torebekova, Aigerim Abdyzhaparova, Aigerim Bolatova, Amangul Ovezberdyyeva, Assel Paju, Azat Alkeyev, Bakhriddin Nishonov, Berdimamed Soltanov, Didar Zhanibekuly, Djuma Saparpuradov, Dominique Berod, Dovletgeldy Muhyev, Elena Smirnova, Elvira Omorova, Faridun Sanginov, Fatih Kaya, Firuz Saidov, Firuza Illarionova, Gulzhan Tulebaeva, Hamidjon Rasulzoda, Jamila Annadurdyeva, Jamila Baidulloeva, Jamoliddin Yakubov, Irina Zaiceva, Karimdzhon Abdualimov, Lesya Nikolaeva, Lidia Grom, Ludmila Nyshanbaeva, Mahbuba Kasymova, Maral Muhammedova, Marat Kynatov, Marina Denisova, Marina Shmidt, Mereke Abdrakhmetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Nailya Mustaeva, Natalia Ivkina, Natalya Strakhova, Nazar Bayramov, Nickolai Denisov, Nurken Bultekov, Olga Krylova, Oraz Sultanov, Otto Simonett, Ramazon Rahmonov, Rashid Davlatov, Saidahmad Dustov, Samat Abdykerimov, Sangin Samiev, Shakhnoza Rakhmankulova, Suhrob Olimov, Svetlana Dolgikh, Tatiana Chernikova, Tolkun Jukusheva, Vohid Hamidov, Yann Kerblat, Yulia Plotnickaya, Yerdos Kubakov, Zoia Kretova 1st edition, November 2019 Produced by: ZoĂŻ Environment Network Chemin de Balexert 7-9, CH-1219 Chatelaine Geneva, Switzerland Tel +41 22 917 8342 Email: enzoi@zoinet.org www.zoinet.org

Weather, Climate and Water

in Central Asia

A Guide to Hydrometeorological Services in the Region

Table of contents Foreword

1 Introduction

6 9

Climate facts of Central Asia Geography

Weather formation in Central Asia

Water formation and use

Cloud types and what they mean

Complex and extreme weather

2 Users of weather, water and climate information Climate and water assessments and early warnings of extreme weather Agriculture

Construction and cities Energy

Transport and logistics

Sports, tourism and outdoor events

18 22 24 26 28 30 32

3 Hydromet information and services

Common hydromet information and services

Collecting observations

Densely populated areas

Processing information

Sparsely populated areas

Areas of special focus in Central Asia

38 40 41 43 43

Weather and water in the mountains

Climate change impacts on water resources

Climate change responses

Snow and ice observations in the mountains Flood risk

45 48

4 How hydromets function Typical hydromet functions

Meteorology and weather forecasting Climate services

Agrometeorology Hydrology

Specialized observations Environmental quality Forecast accuracy

How to get hydromet information

50 54 56 58 59 60 62 64 66 67

Diverse sources of weather information

Hydromet public information products

5 Country profiles

National and regional centres Kazakhstan

The Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan

74 76 86 96

Turkmenistan

106

6 Towards improved hydromet services

126

Uzbekistan

116

Modernization accomplishments and plans

128

Human resources

Accuracy of forecasts

Observation network

Severe weather warnings

Regional and international cooperation Benefits of hydrological information

128 129 129 130 131

Summary of hydromet observations and services 132 Hydromet innovations expected in Central Asia in 2020 and beyond

134

The global outlook

136

Photo credits

138

Alliance for Hydromet Development

135

References

137

Acknowledgements

139

Foreword Central Asia has made significant strides in socio-economic development in recent years. However, climate change and weather-related hazards pose significant risks to livelihoods in the region. The World Bank Report Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal, predicts more intense warming in Central Asia than the global average, in a 4°C warmer world. The impacts will be felt in all sectors that are vital to Central Asia’s economic growth and development. Central Asia is also a region where almost 30 percent of the people rely on farming and livestock for their living. For these people, accurate weather and climate information is critical. Forecasting and long-term climate information, for example, can help farmers to grow and protect their crops, and water managers to optimize storage and delivery. Energy producers, transporters, construction companies and tourism/event managers can also optimize the production and security of their services. Finally, good weather information can help reduce disaster risk in locations prone to storms, floods and mudslides, and improve emergency response services. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services serve as Central Asia’s public authorities for weather and river forecasting. While technology is driving rapid evolution in the science of forecasting, computers cannot replace skilled local experts to produce information specific for their countries. The goal is to provide people with timely, reliable and useable information so that they can take appropriate actions to prepare for weather events. The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are working to provide information through a range of media and in the languages of their users.

With its long-standing support for modernizing the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Central Asia and around the world, the World Bank works closely with partners – including with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – to strengthen the global weather enterprise. The countries of Central Asia have distinct geographies and climates that require special skills in the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services – for example, weather monitoring and forecasting in both vast deserts and high mountains – and distinct economies with different priority sectors that need specific information on weather, climate and water. By providing easy-to-understand overviews of the weather and climate in the region, the utility of weather and water information for society, and the role and needs of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, this Atlas can be used to inform decision-making, scope possible investments in development, and educate people. It recognizes common interests and specific differences between the climate zones and economic sectors of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It also celebrates progress in the modernization of the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and lays out a development path for service-oriented weather, climate and water information services. We sincerely hope that all users, providers, and partners of these services in Central Asia find the Atlas useful. Sincerely, Lilia Burunciuc Regional Director for Central Asia The World Bank

1 Introduction Weather is an ever-present part of daily life, and decisions large and small revolve around what the weather is doing and is going to do. The stakes may be fairly low – getting caught in the rain without an umbrella – or extremely high. Hazardous weather conditions can make the transportation of goods and people unsafe, and can put property, livelihoods and lives at risk. Advanced warnings of extreme weather can usually reduce the risks by providing people with the opportunity to take precautionary measures.

Top: Mountain pasture, central Kyrgyz Republic Bottom: Situation room, Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic

Introduction In today’s world, weather apps are everywhere and when we glance at our devices and decide if we are going to take an umbrella when we leave the house we may be forgiven for taking this twenty-first century, whiz-bang technology for granted and for thinking that weather information comes from our phones. To be sure, weather information is delivered to our phones, but it comes from the collection of an astonishing array of observations and measurements from ground stations, satellites and other remote sensing equipment and from the processing of the data with sophisticated computers, all of which entails the following of rigorous protocols. And the people following those protocols power the entire enterprise with their knowledge, training and professionalism. This atlas offers insights into the work of the national hydrometeorological services and the global networks that contribute to the information on our screens. It covers the range of weather, water and climate information and services available, and connects that information and those services to the spectrum of users with their own specific needs. As global warming continues to produce more frequent and more intense extreme weather events, interest in the forecasting of these events may be on the rise, and this atlas may serve as an entry point to understanding the methods and limitations of modern practice. Throughout this atlas, the informal term “hydromet” refers to the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the Central Asia countries. The landscape of Central Asia comprises dramatic mountain ranges, high plateaus, deep valleys, steppes and vast desert plains. The Pamirs in Tajikistan and the Tien Shan in the Kyrgyz Republic make those countries the most mountainous in the region, but mountains cover parts of eastern Kazakhstan, southeast Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and extend into Afghanistan and China. Scientists project that average temperatures in Central Asia will increase by 1°C–3°C by 2050 under likely climate change scenarios, and could rise by 3°C–6°C by the end of the century. Over the last 50–70 years, temperatures have increased by 0.3°C–1.2°C depending on

l ocation, and in most places winter warming is more pronounced. Changes in precipitation have varied across the region. The changes brought by global warming are anything but uniform, and the consequences of climate change vary across landscapes and elevations. Wet areas may become wetter, and dry areas may become drier. By tracking the trends in weather and hydrology, hydromets can assist planners in a range of sectors – transport, agriculture and tourism, to name a few – as they adjust the historical patterns to what is becoming the new normal. The economic stakes related to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are high, and hydromets are at the centre of the development of the new climate knowledge that can guide the sectoral planners and policymakers in the coming years. Hydromets offer summaries of data on temperature, precipitation and other hydrometeorological elements, as well as frequency distributions and average values, and publications on local climate data. The role of global warming in the hydrological changes in the region extends from the mountains to the lowlands and plays out across the seasons. Mountain glaciers hold vast amounts of water, and tracking the trends in the retreat of glaciers is crucial to the understanding of the downstream effects. Hydropower and agriculture have vital interests in river flows. Planners in these sectors can no longer rely on historical patterns, and the collection and analysis of data are instrumental in the determination of what to expect. Effective water management depends on the sound knowledge and projections provided by hydromets. The products available from hydromets include real-time data and projections on daily, monthly and seasonal water flows by specific river or area, as well as early warnings for flash floods and droughts. The water that falls as snow and rain in the mountains is stored in glaciers and snowpack before making its way downstream via Central Asia’s rivers – the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya along with the Ili, Chu, Talas and Saryjaz, to name the major ones. Some 90 per cent of the population of the region relies on this water from the mountains.

Climate facts from Central Asia

Climate facts of Central Asia Climate conditions most favorable for grain cultivation

Coldest capital of Central Asia

Glacial lakes and ice dams

Seasonal winds and fire risk Flattest low-lying area prone to flooding due to storm surges and sea level fluctuations

Largest seasonal ice covered area, Caspian seal habitat

Strongest winds

Northern Kazakshan Grasslands

Northern Caspian Sea

Caspian lowland

Altai

Nur-Sultan

Aral Sea

Ili Alatau

rakol

Kamchik, Ka

KYR

Densely populated area vulnerable to water deficits and drought

Arslan

UZB Karakum

Qarshi

Rich walnut forest in wettest and warm areas

bob, Kh ovaling

Zeravshan

TKM Ashgabad

Most snow and avalanche risk

Zhungar Gates

KAZ

TJK Amu Darya

Fed c Pamir henko

Largest glaciers

Driest area of Central Asia

Coldest and sunniest high mountain area

Hottest capital of Central Asia Densely populated area dependent on rain and glacier water

Largest river of Central Asia

Geography

Kostanay

Russia

l Tobo

Uralsk

U ra l

il ls

Aktobe

Atyrau

Northern Aral Sea

-27

a Aralkum

G eor g i a

Western Aral Sea

Aktau

A ze r b a ij a n

Ar men i a

Sarygamysh Lake

Nukus K h w a r a z m

Karabogazgol

Dashoguz

Urganch

S Turkmenbashi

Uz b ek is t a n

e Darya Amu

Balkanabat

Tu r k m e n i s t a n

o p

Kar aku m

Can al 3106

Bukhara

Turkmenabat

Mary g ab Murgh

Tejen

Iran

Ashkhabad D

Petropavlovsk

Russia

Lake Siletiteniz

Pavlodar Esil

Nur-Sultan

Ir t y

Semey

Oskemen l

Lake Tengiz

4506

Karaganda r a l y r k a K a

U l y

Kazakhstan

Lake Zaysan

1133

Ta r b a gat ay su Sary

Balkhash B

e t p

k -

D a

l a 342

Chu

ya Dar Syr

M u y u n k 2176 u

Almaty

Shymkent

Talas

Bishkek BalykchyIssyk-Kul Karakol 7439

Kyr g y z Re p u b l i c

Tashkent

Naryn

Namangan

Aydar Lake

Ferghana Valley

Ferghana

Samarkand Khujand

Kapchagay Res. 4979

Taraz

Osh

h S

C h in a

Zaravshan

Bokhtar

Af gh ani s t a n

7495

Taj i k i s t a n

Pan j

khs h

Dushanbe Va

Termiz

au lat A r nga Dzu

Ili

Kyzylorda

Karshi

Lake Alakol

L ake Balk ha sh

P a m i r

Khorog

Pakistan

11 0

200 km

Map produced by ZoÃ¯ Environment Network, September 2019

Water formation and use

Kostanay

Water flow (blue), water abstraction (red) 5

10 20

Russia

Water flow in kmÂł/year

l Tobo

Uralsk Irrigated areas

U ra l

Aktobe

Atyrau

Northern Aral Sea

C a

s p

G eor g i a

Western Aral Sea

Aktau

A ze r b a ij a n

Ar men i a

Sarygamysh Lake Karabogazgol

Nukus Dashoguz

Urganch

Uz b ek is t a n

Turkmenbashi

Darya Amu

Balkanabat

Tu r k m e n i s t a n Kar aku m

Can al

Turkmenabat

Ashkhabad

Mary

ab Murgh

Tejen

Iran

Bukhara

Petropavlovsk

Russia

Lake Siletiteniz

Pavlodar Esil

Nur-Sultan

Ir t y

Semey

Oskemen

Lake Tengiz

Karaganda

Kazakhstan

Lake Zaysan

su Sary

Balkhash

L ake Balk ha sh

Lake Alakol

Ili

Kyzylorda Chu

Kapchagay Res.

ya Dar Syr

Almaty Taraz

Shymkent

Talas

Bishkek BalykchyIssyk-Kul Karakol

Kyr g y z Re p u b l i c

Tashkent

Naryn

Namangan

Aydar Lake

Osh Ferghana

Khujand

Samarkand

Zaravshan

Dushanbe

Taj i k i s t a n

Pan j

khs h

Karshi

C h in a

Bokhtar Termiz

Af gh ani s t a n

Khorog

Pakistan

13 0

200 km

Map produced by ZoÃ¯ Environment Network, September 2019

Weather formation Central Weather formationinand factsAsia in Central Asia cold air inflow that triggers dust storms, rains, sudden drop in air temperatures, persistent fog in winter

RUSSIA

Cold ma air lar

Steppes

Ther ma

low pressure system in summer months with hot air temperatures and stable weather

A t la

n ti c

a ir m

ass

ss ma

the

ai r

and

t e rn

- w es

usually brings to Central Asia cloudy, rainy and cool weather

ne )

No r t h

Humid

s te

usually brings stable and sunny weather: depending on season it could be warm or cold

Europe

Siberia

moderately cold air inflow that often causes dust storms and heavy precipitation in mountains

ria Sibe

t an ( h hig

y i- c

clo

pressio n

Mountains ves

al ne

Warm Sub-tropical air masses

can cause rains and dust storms

Several large weather patterns affect Central Asia. Warm, subtropical air masses from the south-east can trigger rain and dust storms and unstable weather in the high mountains. Humid air from the west generally brings clouds, rain and cool temperatures, while north-western air flows often bring heavy precipitation to the mountains, and may cause dust storms. Polar air masses can bring sudden dips in

CHINA

Fro

cy ab gh

IRAN

can cause rains and dust storms

Deserts

clo

ian

t ou

p as

lo yc

Upper Amu Darya cyclone

trigger very unstable weather in mountains with triggers unstable thunderstorms weather in high mountains

AFGHANISTAN

t emperature and persistent mountain fog, and may trigger dust storms and rain. Siberian high pressure from the north-east usually brings stable, sunny weather, while frontal waves create unstable weather and thunderstorms in the mountains. In the interior of Central Asia, summer thermal depressions – low pressure systems – bring hot temperatures and stable weather.

Thickness of air mass arrows corresponds to the relative occurrence of weather phenomena during the year. Based on estimates of V. Bugaev

Cloud types and what they mean

cumulonimbus rain, hail or tornadoes are on the way

Assisted by modern technology and current knowledge, professional meteorologists carry on the tradition of reading clouds to predict the weather.

High 7 000 mâ€”12 000 m

cirrostratus

Clouds are central to how the climate system functions, and cloud research is informing our understanding of climate change. The absence of clouds, measured in annual days of sunshine, is a crucial measure in determining the potential for solar energy.

rain or snow within a day

cirrocumulus fair and cold

cirrus a change is coming

altostratus

Mid

continuous rain or snow

2 000 mâ€”7 000 m

altocumulus fair

nimbostratus

stratocumulus

gloom with continuous rain or snow

fair for now, but a storm is looming

cumulus smog

fair

Low 0 mâ€”2 000 m

stratus fair but gloomy

Complex and extreme weather Mountain weather

Dry area Wind in many directions

Rainy area

Temperature warms 1°C every 100 m down

Temperature cools 0.6°C every 100 m up

The many people in Central Asia who live in or near the mountains have experienced close up how the mountains make weather. When moist air flows up the mountains, for example, the wind side generally receives rain and the lee side stays dry. But the specific shapes of the mountains and plateaus contribute to wide variations in precipitation, temperature and wind over relatively small areas. These conditions are challenging to meteorologists, and hydrometeorological observations are scarce and expensive in the mountains.

Intense rain and hailstorms

Warm air Cold front Intense rain and strong wind

When humid cold air meets warmer air the resultcan be a quickly developing, highly local ized storm with intense rain or hail. Intense rainstorms can flood urban areas, and hail storms can severely damage crops. Hydromets can typically provide only short notice of such storms, and need high-resolution data and expensive instrumentation such as radar.

Temperature inversions Normal Condition

Temperature Inversion

Cold air

Cooler air

Warm air - Inversion layer

Warm air

Cooler air Smog, no wind and emissions

Temperature inversions often occur in winter in urban areas, when air temperatures increase rather than cool with altitude. These events trigger air stagnation, accumulation of urban pollutants and the formation of smog. Hydromet forecasts can predict the weather conditions that lead to inversions, and can issue pollution alerts and measure pollution levels.

Extreme heat and cold Cold air flow

Heatwaves are periods of several days to several weeks with hot temperatures at least 10 degrees higher than historical averages in a given area. They occur when high-pressure systems force air downwards. The trapped air below has no place to go and keeps getting warmer. Cold waves are sharp near-surface drops in temperature, often accompanied by strengthening winds and icy conditions, and covering a large area. Timely forecasts can save lives and minimize suffering.

Freezing cities and villages -15°C

Low water flow and not enough reserves, not enough energy Cold impacts on crops and agricultural animals

Extreme drought Hot, dry weather

+40°C

Labour and living condition

Soil drought Balance of hydropower production vs irrigation Failure of crops suffering of people downstream

Dust storm

Aral sea and dry bottom Dust storm with salt

Houses, people 200 km Crops

All droughts are the result of an area receiving less precipitation than what is considered normal or average. Meteorological droughts are defined by how dry the air and soil are compared to normal, and by how long the period persists. Hydrological droughts are more closely tied to water levels in rivers and reservoirs. Droughts affect downstream areas more severely than upstream areas, and consecutive year droughts compound the stress. Hydromets can make seasonal forecasts for hydrological droughts based on snowpack and precipitation records, but rainfall deficits can deplete soil moisture quickly.

Wind

5—10 m/s

Dust

Plantation

As a formerly large water body, the Aral Sea influenced the weather in the region, and the shrinking of the sea has changed the local microclimate. What was once the seabed is now exposed dust mixed with salt. Strong winds carry this dust and salt mixture in large storms that can last for a couple of hours that can affect areas up to 300 km from the sea. Hydromets can predict the weather conditions for these storms, but not their size and intensity, so warnings are limited to the alert that the storms are likely to occur. Authorities are planting vegetation around the sea in the attempt to stabilize the ongoing desertification and reduce dust storms.

2 Users of weather, water and climate information Warnings of extreme weather events are crucial across sectors and for the Âgeneral public. Each sector has its own specific concerns, and hydromets Âprovide important information that allows sector planners and managers to respond to changing weather, climate and water conditions.

Top: Karshi canal, Uzbekistan Bottom: Cotton field

Users of weather, water and climate information A well-functioning hydromet service is an essential element in both disaster risk reduction and emergency response. Timely information on hazardous weather conditions and forecasts of extreme events can help public safety officials prepare for and respond to potential disasters effectively. Historical hydromet data provide city planners with the information necessary to design storm water systems, identify evacuation routes and prepare for other disaster contingencies – cooling centres to protect residents during heatwaves, for example. The hydromet products include data summaries and reports on climate normals. Extreme weather can strike in any season, and can trigger a range of potential consequences, such as avalanches and floods that affect different areas and economic sectors in specific ways, and that require responses specific to the situation. In some cases, the appropriate response may be as simple as the postponement of an event, and in others the response may entail road closures or evacuations. Longer extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and cold spells call for more sustained responses, and forecasts can provide both warnings of coming events and signals of when the weather may change.

Agriculture No sector has more at stake in the weather and climate conditions than agriculture. Crops, livestock, facilities and infrastructure all are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and the livelihoods of growers depend on their ability to protect their assets from droughts, storms and extreme high or low temperatures. Growers use climate information to help select crops, varieties and species adapted to the changing conditions in specific locations, and rely on weather warnings to alert them to the need to take precautionary measures. Hydromets conduct agrometeorological observations covering soil conditions and vegetation development and provide information that can help farmers predict the health and vigour of crops and natural pastures, and reduce risk of crop damage by

diseases and pests. They also produce information crucial for national food security assessments, for scheduling optimal crop watering and harvesting times and for managing commercial gardens and greenhouses.

Construction and cities The construction sector benefits from a range of hydromet services – historical climate and extreme weather data to inform design and siting criteria, and current forecasts for scheduling and logistics during the course of construction. The marvels of civil engineering such as skyscrapers, sophisticated bridges and sport facilities all require highly detailed climate data to ensure the safety and performance of the structures. Municipal authorities likewise use these data to develop building codes and evacuation plans. Public health and safety agencies and other city officials are on the front lines of emergency response, and they use hydromet forecasts to help them determine when to issue alerts, open cooling centres and take other appropriate measures to protect the population. Hydromets provide data summaries such as temperature frequency distributions, and offer climate data in the form of averages of meteorological measures of temperature, precipitation, frosts and snowfall.

Energy The systems for generating and transmitting power are vulnerable to certain weather conditions and to numerous projected and actual climate changes. The efficiency and output of power generation decline as temperatures increase, and higher cooling water temperatures at coal and gas-fueled plants are particularly problematic. The power generation and grid infrastructure are threatened by stronger and more frequent storms and high winds that can reduce output and affect energy security. Similarly, the increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, together with changes in precipitation patterns, can reduce hydropower generation as well as the water available for cooling nuclear and thermal power plants.

Climate services help the energy sector build resilience to extreme weather events, climate variability and climate change by providing information the sector can use in planning and operations. Climate data helps planners site a range of facilities, and weather forecasts help managers project demand for energy, estimate load requirements, and determine when to conduct maintenance. The information that hydromets produce is vital to the development of wind and solar energy. The range of products includes wind speed and solar radiation databases that can help energy planners determine the potential for driving wind turbines and estimate the potential for solar energy. Where wind and solar energy producers have special requirements for services or products, the hydromets may need to develop new information for this important sector. The planning of hydropower facilities relies on historical hydrology data, and the operation and management of the facilities relies on real-time water flow data and weekly to seasonal water forecasts. Weather and wave forecasts allow managers to schedule the safe servicing of offshore oil rigs by reporting on wind, fog and ice conditions. Hydromets also provide information on measures of expected energy use for heating and cooling, and temperature information that can be used to assess equipment requirements.

Transport The transportation sector depends on nowcasting and reliable, short- and medium-term weather forecasts to alert schedulers and travellers of current and developing conditions. The aviation sector monitors wind speed

and direction at different altitudes as well as potentially hazardous cloud formations for safe take-offs and landings, and uses data on winds aloft to pick the most efficient routes. Ice, snow, rain, fog and wind – and avalanche conditions in the mountains – can affect road and rail transportation of goods and people. Excessive heat and dust storms can damage rail tracks. Historical weather and hydrology data can help planners decide where to site roads and bridges to minimize the chance of flood damage. Marine ports and shippers need information on wind, ice and storm conditions. Among the hydromet products of use to transportation planners are the databases on temperature and precipitation averages and extremes, monthly summaries of daily observations and annual average and extreme values. Hydromets often provide specialized commercial weather services for transport according to specific requirements and standards.

Sports, tourism and outdoor events Historical hydrometeorological information guides the long-term planning and development of tourism facilities such as skiing and water resorts, and routine weather forecasts help determine maintenance schedules and anticipate the number of visitors. Mountain climbers and alpine sports enthusiasts rely on weather reports for information on avalanche hazards, snow conditions, visibility, winds and approaching storms. Summer hikers can use short-term forecasts to avoid unsafe conditions. Outdoor event planners – who are often civic leaders – seek hourly forecasts so they can prepare for weather contingencies. Hydromets offer reports with historical temperature and precipitation figures, and provide area-specific forecasts.

Climate and water assessments and early warnings of extreme weather Disasters and livelihoods

Exteme weather events

1990

Farmers and pastoralists can use weather and agrometeorological information to reduce their risk. Long-term trends can inform traditional practices and land use plans. Early warnings are essential for safety at home, on the road and in the field.

2015

Duration of vegetation period

1950

2015

Number of cold days

Personal comfort and health 1950

2015

Number of hot days

1950

2015

Climate change analysis can guide the development of public health adaptation strategies, and knowledge of temperature trends can help households choose appropriate garden crops.

GHG emissions and climate change tracking Regular inventories of greenhouse gases help evaluate climate policies. The monitoring of climate change consequences, such as the melting of glaciers, informs the assessment of impacts and the development of adaptation plans.

Glaciers size

Greenhouse gas emissions inventory 1970 1950

2010

2015

Glacier-fed rivers, water discharge

2015

1950

Rain-fed rivers, water level

1950

2015

Crop yield response to climate change

Hydropower and irrigation Balancing crop irrigation against hydropower generation depends on knowledge of seasonal water reserves.

Sunflower Grain 2015

2050

Agriculture production and food security The modeling of climate impacts on food production and crops contributes to contingency planning. Farmers rely on agrometeorological forecasts and daily information.

Agriculture

Agricultural planning ► Weather information can guide scheduling during course of construction. ► Farmers can use hail net to protect high value crops

► Historical data on area snowfall and wind can guide roof design.

Orchards 24

► Hourly temperature and precipitation information can help growers protect weather-sensitive fruit trees.

Highland and lowland pastures ► Weather certificates assist pastoralists in filing insurance claims for weatherrelated losses. ► Short-term forecasts warn of storms, snowfall or avalanche conditions.

► Seasonal forecasts provide information relevant to future pasture conditions.

Irrigated crops ► Hydrological information can assist growers in managing their irrigation and balancing water distribution. ► Forecasts for extreme weather – heat, cold snap or drought – can alert growers to take precautionary measures.

Rain-fed crops ► Weather information such as snowpack and soil moisture content can guide growers in deciding when to plant and when to harvest.

Construction and cities House construction ► Builders and designers can use historical

weather data to make good decisions on the siting and orientation of houses, and to determine the level of insulation needed to keep living spaces comfortable and costeffective to heat and cool.

► Before and during the course of construction, builders can use hydromet services to plan work schedules to optimize safety and efficiency.

Special projects and operation

► Special construction projects – antennas,

bridges, mines and other large or complex structures – require special planning.

► Historical data on temperatures and prevailing winds, for example, may inform decisions on material choices and other engineering matters.

Municipal services ► City officials use short- and medium-term weather forecasts to prepare responses to a wide range of contingencies and to issue citizen alerts.

Inversions occur when warmer horizontal layers of air lie over cooler and heavier air below. In cities, air pollution from cars and industry becomes trapped in inversions, and may become smog.

► Hospitals and local authorities plan for heatwaves to assist vulnerable residents.

► City planning can take adaptive measures for potential extreme weather events – by providing for storm water drainage to minimize flooding, for example. ► Routine forecasts of routine weather help residents plan their days.

Energy Coal ► Forecasts help planners estimate the beginning and end of the heating season. ► Seasonal weather forecasts can help managers project energy production requirements.

Oil rigs ► Forecasts of wind, visibility and ice conditions can help determine transport schedules to and from rigs.

Caspian sea

Heating demand Power transmission lines

Gas ► Temperature forecasts provide the opportunity to regulate the pressure in sensitive gas pipes.

► Historical data can guide the placement of lines to avoid power disruptions.

► Short-term weather forecasts can inform maintenance schedules.

► Electric load forecasting models can incorporate hourly temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover and wind data for better accuracy.

Hydropower ► Historical data helps hydropower planners ensure sufficient water flow. ► Short-term weather forecasts can guide work schedules during the course of construction. ► Seasonal data helps water managers ensure sufficient water for agriculture and power production.

► Forecasts of extreme weather can lead to risk reduction measures.

► Short-term forecasts help determine operational contingencies, and medium-term forecasts help with planning.

Solar and wind power ► Weather forecasts can inform wind and solar power production projections.

► Historical data can guide the siting of installations, and shorter-term forecasts can inform the scheduling of maintenance.

Upper air observations

Nuclear power ► Wind direction and speed are useful in emergency response.

► Historical data and weather forecasts can guide site planning and construction. ► Radiation monitoring helps managers understand background levels and detect leaks.

► Hydrology information can inform plant managers of the status and availability of cooling water.

Transport and logistics

Caspian sea

Ports ► Hydrometeorological forecasts can help port managers prepare for shipping contingencies.

Aviation

The AMDAR Observing System

Weather radar is an expensive and sophisticated instrument commonly used in aviation to detect wind and precipitation.

► The aviation system collects weather data useful in scheduling domestic flights.

► Airports share local weather conditions such

as wind speed and visibility with each other to ensure safety from take-off to landing.

Mountain roads ► Information on snow

conditions guides avalanche control measures that keep mountain roads safe for travelers.

Secondary roads ► Extreme weather warnings alert

Highways

travelers to dangerous conditions.

► Drivers can use information on

► Planners can use historical

road conditions – ice, snow, rain, fog and wind – to plan their trips, and trucking companies can use this same information to project their fuel consumption and travel times.

weather and hydrology information to locate roads and bridges to minimize flooding effects.

Dust storm

Forest protection belt

Railroads ► Extreme heat, which can

affect the tracks, and snow and dust storms are some of the weather hazards for rail traffic.

► Forecasts for extreme weather can

help schedulers plan for safe travel.

Sports, tourism and outdoor events

Alpine Climate change

► Avalanche warnings promote safety.

► Long-term projections are

► Historical and current weather information

crucial in business planning.

can guide planning and construction.

► Short-term weather forecasts can guide operations and maintenance.

► Forecasts and reports inform skiers and snowboarders of snow conditions.

Changes in snow cover extent and duration

Weather Avalanche High

Mountaineering ► Forecasts for wind,

visibility and storms can keep climbers safe.

► Weather forecasts are

crucial to maintaining safety in helicopter flights.

Holidays ► Weather forecasts may

help planners schedule holiday events.

Hiking ► Daily and hourly weather

forecasts can keep hikers safe.

Sport events ► Short-term forecasts

help organizers prepare for events.

Community-based tourism ► Short-term weather forecasts help tourists develop their plans. ► Weather information guides operations and maintenance.

Beach, lake and sea tourism ► Seasonal forecasts inform vacation planning.

3 Hydromet information and services The trend towards automation in weather observations began about 20 years ago, and the countries of Central Asia are starting to catch up. World Bank projects in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic over the past 10 years have added automated observations at manual stations, and have advanced the integration of the systems.

Automated meteorological station, Sangiston, Tajikistan

Common hydromet information and services Hydromets’ atmosphere and upper air obser vations include sunshine, cloud cover and type, the atmospheric profile and phenomena, the ozone layer and pollutants. Hazard and special observations range from glaciers, snow reserves and avalanches to flash floods and flood risks. Weather observations near the surface include temperature, wind speed and direction and rainfall, while environmental observations cover air pollution, radiation levels and heatwaves. Surface hydrology observations include water levels and discharge, water phenomena and water quality. Vegetation and soil observations include vegetation phases, soil temperature and moisture content and drought risk. Marine observations include waves, floods and ice events. The new equipment is more technologically advanced and comes with new maintenance requirements, and the transmission and inteKaz Hydromet building in Almaty

gration of data need to evolve to ensure smooth operations. The implications for staff remain an open question, but the adoption of a more client-oriented approach – favoured by WMO – may entail local hydromet stations providing direct services, and local staff receiving training in client relations. The global data system includes data accessible to hydromets through the WMO Information System and through the global telecommunication system, and includes data from satellite systems. Hydromets produce data in their national systems, which also include data produced by other agencies or the private sector or academia. A key requirement for an information and communications system is broad bandwidth access to the Internet for accessing large data volumes from global prediction centers and from satellite and ground-based remote sensing.

Checking equipment, Tajikistan The reliable generation of timely and accurate meteorological and hydrological forecasts calls for the higher resolution numerical guidance increasingly available from the WMO global Âproduction centres. The World Bank Âencourages hydromets to base forecasts on ensemble predictions and to provide users with warnings of the potential impacts and the severity of the risks. To produce and deliver services that are relevant and responsive, hydromets need to understand the kinds of decisions their users make, and how they use hydrometeorological information.

Thermometer housing, Turkmenistan

Collecting observations ozone la yer O 3

1.d

Hg NOx V OCs NH 3 PM Pb Atmospheri c polluta Cd S nts and O 2 gas

Atmosphere and upper air observations

1.c

1.b

1.a

Hazards and special observations 2.a

3.a

2.d

3.c

2.b

3.b 4.a

2.c

Surface hydrology observations

5.a

Environmental quality in densely populated areas

4.b

5.b

4.c

5.c

7.b 7.a

1. Atmosphere and upper air observations 1.a sunshine 1.b atmospheric profile and phenomena 1.c cloud type and cover 1.d ozone layer, global pollutants 2. Hazards and special observations 2.a avalanches 2.b snow reserves 2.c flash floods, flood risk 2.d glaciers

Marine observations

6.b

Vegetation and soil observations 6.a

7.c

Near surface weather observations

6.c

3. Near surface weather observations 3.a rainfall 3.b air temperature 3.c wind speed and direction

5. Surface hydrology observations 5.a water level and discharge 5.b water phenomena 5.c water quality

4. Environmental quality in densely populated areas 4.a air pollution 4.b radiation levels 4.c heatwaves

6. Vegetation and soil observations 6.b soil temperature and humidity 6.a vegetation phases 6.c drought risk 7. Marine observations 7.a waves 7.b ice events 7.c sea level

Processing information WMO Global standards, methodologies and coordination

AMDAR

Global and regional

Satellites

Users Ongoing reforms to improve user-oriented services

Data generation by observation networks

users around the world central government & local authorities

Marine

transport

National

National hydromet service Information processing & products

mining and industry

agriculture

energy Science stations

Other

cities & building sector communication via - email - bulletins - telephone - website

Road stations Agro stations

citizens & mass media

Service production and delivery systems Observations

IT & communications

Forcasting

Service delivery

- meteo stations - hydrometric stations - upper air, air quality - weather radar

- high performance computing - data collection - automated weather stations - data storage & analysis - website & servers

- satellite producs - numerical weather forecasts - early warning & special forcasting

- information products - client relations - international obligations & data exchange

0000162783 879238293 76387283 8392875203 83792730 238742938 82379827 87329874 239084235

Densely populated areas

intense rainfall

heatwave, pollution

urban areas

impermeable surface and urban heat affects micro-climate

water systems

agriculture densely populated rural areas

aviation and airports

Meteorological stations

Air quality stations

Agromet station

Meteorological radar and lightning detection systems

AMDAR

Upper air observations

Hydrological stations

Suggested expansion of the network

Impact-based forecasting: extreme weather preparedness

Weather and climate extremes

Weather-linked hazards

Impact estimation

Forecasters project likely development of severe thunderstorms with intense rain and gusting winds. Meteorological network provides observation data in near real time.

Flood is likely to result from intense rain that could be aggravated by a storm surge and wind damage. Hydrological stations detect rising water levels.

Specific parts of a city likely to be affected â€“ flooding of roads, and wind damage to power systems is likely.

Size and intensity

Inundation and strong winds

Disruption of services, affected population

Risk reduction and response Evacuation, recovery

Residents get timely and clear warnings and advice on how to respond.

Sparsely populated areas

4 000 m

2 000 m

glaciers

3 000 m

snow accumulation and melt

avalanche risk pastures

mining sites * Significant parts of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are above 3 000 m

hydropower

deforestation affects surface runoff and may augument flooding risk logistic hubs infrastructure

The participants of a WMO High Mountain Summit (October 2019, Geneva) issued a global call to action to avoid an impending crisis related to mountain weather, climate, snow, ice and Âwater. Their concerns include the scarcity of observations in the mountains, the fragmentation

Meteorological stations

Hydrological stations

Suggested expansion of the network

Future hydrological stations

of the available data across organizations and the importance of these observations and data in the development of policy and risk reduction measures. The call for action is global, and recognizes the mountains as a source of global fresh water.

Impact-based forecasting: sound water and energy management

Weather and climate extremes

Weather-linked hazards

Impact estimation

Risk reduction and response

Forecasters project heatwave. Hydrologists report high snow reserves in the mountains. This combination may cause rapid snow melt over an extensive area even at high elevations.

Rapid increase in river flow is likely, with possible glacial lake formation posing risk of floods.

Reservoirs behind hydropower dams are likely to fill quickly and, if operators do not take measures, the dam may overflow.

Power operators and dam engineers get timely and clear warning and respond with risk mitigation measures.

Size and intensity

High water levels

Dam overflow risk

Controlled release of water

Automated meteorological station at the Barkrak Glacier, Uz Hydromet

Densely populated areas

Sparsely populated areas

The users of hydromet services in densely populated areas include – in addition to the general public – officials responsible for public health and safety, air quality, water supply and quality, and nearby farmers. The observation networks in these areas collect data from a range of sources – airports, weather balloons, upstream hydro stations, and air quality monitors. These networks are easier to maintain than remote stations, but the expectations of users continue to grow. Cities that cover large geographic areas are interested in hourly and location-specific forecasts. These growing demands imply a need for a more extensive network of stations and for the integration of other sources of information into the system.

The region’s sparsely populated steppes and deserts are vast, and the relatively few observations currently collected are sufficient for hydromet purposes. Population density in the mountains is also low, but the weather here affects more than the local residents. Water reserves for the region form in the mountains, and water forecasting for the region requires mountain information. In addition, people in the mountains face particular weather-related hazards and highly specific local conditions. The variations in weather caused by the mountains themselves render models less accurate, and while remote sensing helps, ground obser vations remain essential. Current coverage up to 2 000 metres in elevation is generally sufficient, but blank areas remain where hydromet stations do not report. Mining operations, which are often located above 3 000 metres, need better information.

Areas of special focus in Central Asia

Special focus: mountain areas - weather and water in Central Asia Elevation

6 000 m

The spring and summer run-off provide water for agricultural use, and can offset the consequences of reduced precipitation in low water years. While glaciers store water over decades and longer, the snowpack stores water from season to season, and evens out the fluctuaPermafrost tions in precipitation. Glaciers are essential in summer flows, and the amount of water available varies by the size and elevation of the glaciers.

Weather and water in the mountains Water is held as ice that melts in summer

Snow

Special focus: mountain areas - weather and water in Central Asia 4 000 m Rain & snow

ElevationWater is held as snow

6 000 m

that melts in spring

Water is held as ice 2 in 000 m that melts summer

Snow

Mainly rain

Water runs off within a few days

4 000 m Rain & snow

Water is held as snow that melts in spring

Permafrost 2 000 m

Mainly rain

Water runs off within a few days

Contribution andglacier glacier melt to river Contributionofofrainfall, rainfall, snow snow and melt to river discharge discharge in the mountain above2 000 2 000 meters in the mountain areas areas above meters km3 16

Syr Darya River

16 14

Contribution of rainfall, snow8 and glacier melt to river discharge in the mountain areas above 2 000 meters 6

8 6 4 2 0

km3

Syr Darya River2

14 12

Hydromet services are of crucial importance in developing information related to river flow. Snow melt and glacier melt from the Pamir, Hindu Kush and Tien Shan mountain ranges supply the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers – the main water sources in Central Asia. Snow accumulation in the winter is a key factor in river flow, and the melt water reaches maximum flow in the summer.

Amu Darya River

A M

Amu Darya River

14 J

A M

Source: Armstrong et al 2019 in Regional environmental change, Vol 19, Issue 5. Runoff from glacier ice and seasonal snow in High Asia: separating melt water sources in river flow

8 Monthly contribution to river flow: 6 Rainfall

Melt water from snow on land

A M

Melt water from snow on ice and glacier ice

43 J

A M

Source: Armstrong et al 2019 in Regional environmental change, Vol 19, Issue 5. Runoff from glacier ice and seasonal snow in High Asia: separating melt water sources in river flow

Glacier observations in the mountains As visual indicators of climate change, glaciers are easy to understand – as global warming progresses, glaciers shrink in length and mass. And because of the importance of glaciers in water resources, hydromets and scientists are interested in the changes in glaciers and the effects on river flows. Remote sensing and continuous on-site monitoring of glaciers and snow cover are necessary to close the gaps in understanding of the effects of global warming on the cryosphere in Central Asia, and hydromets in the region need to increase the range and depth of their data collection. The current glacier measurements and data on changes in run-off cannot sufficiently reduce the uncertainties associated with the interactions between climate and the cryosphere. Close monitoring of changes in glacier mass and length is essential to the making of accu rate water resources projections, and the monitoring of permafrost will be increasingly important. Fortunately, progress is underway, and hydrologists, meteorologists and climate scientists in the region are starting to close the gaps and build hydromet capacity.

Glacier observations in the Pamirs, Tajikistan

Snow and ice observations in the mountains Almaty

r Sy

Kazakhstan

Ts. Tyuyksu

a ry

Turkestan

Issyk-Kul Kara-Batkak

Enylchek

7439 Jengish (Pobeda) Peak

Akshirak massif

Adegyne

Shymkent

4979

Karakol

Bishkek

Taraz

Talgar Peak

Petrov

Kyr g yz Rep ub l ic

Naryn

Aksu

5982 Dankova Peak

Tashkent

tan Ho

Namangan Kokand Khujand

Osh

Ferghana

Jizzax Samarkand

Kashgar Skalisty Peak

5621

Abramov

7134

Yark ant

Uzbek i s t a n

Ch i n a

Lenin Peak

Zeravshan

Taj i k i s t a n

Fedchenko 7495 Ismoil Somoni Peak

Dushanbe

6974

7719 Kongur Shan

Independence Peak

Glaciers and high mountain climate observation Glacial monitoring sites

Hotan Glaciers and permanent snow Khorog

Termiz Am u

Dar ya

7282

A f gha ni s t a n

Disthegil Sar 7885

P ak is t an

Ground observations of snow and avalanches

Ground observation of glaciers

200 km

Muztag

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Remote sensing of snow and glacier cover

Glacier tongue elevation

4500 Meteostation at high elevation

Glacier mass balance

4000 3500 Disappearing glaciers Length of the glacier

4 km

past present

Climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia

Climate change impacts on water resources

High mountain glacier-covered areas Glaciers melting, less reliable water supply in summer

66000 000 m m 6000

4 000 4000 m 4000 m m

Mountain areas with some glaciers and significant snow reserves Vanishing smaller glaciers, changing snow reserves and shifts in seasonal hydrology

22000 000 m 2000 m

3 Getting wetter, higher risk of flooding

Northern regions of Central Asia, including grasslands of Kazakhstan Southern regions of Central Asia, including drylands of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan

Getting drier, higher risk of droughts

Concerns about the future climate change effects on water in Central Asia will play out in four separate scenarios. In the first – highly glacierized basins – the changes in the timing and seasonality of run-off from the mountains will reach peak water in the next 20–30 years, and water flows later in the century will diminish.

High mountain glacier-covered areas Accelerating glacial melt

Peak water from glaciers

Most glaciers vanish +2° +6°

+1°

1 flo o ds

p res ent

to 2050

Less reli able water supply i n summer

2100

Mountain areas with some glaciers and significant snow reserves Mountain areas with some glaciers and significant snow reserves Seasonal shift

More pronounced More pronounced inter-annual water fluctuations inter-annual water fluctuations More pronounced Climate inter-annual water fluctuations change Climate

Seasonal shift water availability Mountain areas in with some glaciers and significant snow reserves in water availability Seasonal shift in water availability

Future Future

Pre se nt Pre se nt

Future

Pre se nt

J J

F F

M M

A A

M J J MM o JnthJs M o nth s M J J

change Base li ne Climate change Base li ne

A A

S S

O O

N N

D D

M o nth s

2 2 2

With glaciers With glaciers

Without glaciers Without glaciers

With glaciers

Without glaciers

Pre se nt Pre se nt

Base li ne Future Future

Pre se nt

Future

Snow pack Snow pack to warmer to warmer Snow pack to warmer

declining due declining due temperatures temperatures declining due temperatures

mm mm

°C °C

°C

Gl acie r wate r Gl wate su acie p p lyr di mi nri sh e d su p p ly di mi n i sh e d Gl acie r wate r su p p ly di mi n i sh e d

S e as onal Sg eas el ac asional al m e lt g l ac i al m e lt contr i bution contr i bution S eas onal g l ac i al m e lt contr i bution

Pres e nt Pres e nt Glac iers contr i bu te im po r t ant Glac iers contr i bu te im po r t ant Pres nt su mme r e months mme irbu months Glac ierssucontr te im po r t ant

50- 7 0 year s f ro m now 500 year mr it now Le7ss watesr fsro e cu y ss twate s eycu y iLe n ho a ndr dr yer it a rs i n 7ho a nds dr ym ye now a rs 500 tyear f ro Le ss wate r s e cu r it y i n ho t a nd dr y ye a rs

du e to i n cre ase d e va p oration du e to i n cre ase d e va p oration du e to i n cre ase d e va p oration

su mme r months

Northern regions of Central Asia, including grasslands of Kazakhstan Northern regions of Central Asia, including grasslands of Kazakhstan Peakofseasonal Northern regions Centralflow Asia, including grasslands of Kazakhstan Peakand seasonal flood flow and flood Peak seasonal flow and flood Fu tu re

3 3 3

to mo re p re ci p i t ati o n to mo p re me ci plt i t ati o n rapi d re sn ow rapi d sn ow me lt to mo re p re ci p i t ati o n rapi d sn ow me lt

Fu tu re Fu tu re

Pres ent Pres ent J J

F F

M M

A M Pres ent J A M J

J J

A A

S S

O O

N N

D D

Southern regions of Central Asia, including drylands Southern regions and of Central Asia, including drylands of Turkmenistan Afghanistan of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan Southern regions of Central Asia, including drylands Significant reduction of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan Significant reduction in flow

4 4 4

in flow Significant reduction Pre s e nt in flow Pre s e nt Pre s e nt Pre s e nt

Future Future J J

F F

M M

A A

M J J Future MM o JnthJs M o nth s M J J M o nth s

A A

S S

O O

N N

D D

an d an d an d

Flooding extent Flooding extent Flooding extent Future Future Pre s e nt Pre s e nt

Future

Pre s e nt

In the second scenario – medium glacierization at lower elevations – warming temperatures will reduce the snowpack, the glaciers will lose mass and flows will decline over time. Toward the end of the century, as less water is available from glaciers, water insecurity may be compromised in hot, dry seasons. In the northern parts of the region where there are no glaciers – the third scenario – rising temperatures will result in more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, and in reduced snow cover and rapid snow melt. This will increase both peak flow and the extent of flooding. The dry southern parts of the region with no glaciers – the fourth scenario – can expect reductions in flow. In all cases, the hydro mets can play a crucial role in tracking the changes in temperature, precipitation and glaciers, and in measuring the flow of rivers.

Special role of Central Asia hydromet services Flood in floodrisk risk monitoring & response remote sensing

Rapid glacial melt and lake outburst floods rapid glacier melt due to climate warming, more intense and prolonged heatwaves

slope instability and rockfalls small lake

alarm systems

glacial dam lakes

growing glacial lake

surging glaciers can block river flow

Heavy rain causes flash floods and landslides thurnderstorm and intense rain

flash flood guidance

weather radar landslide triggered by saturation of soil earthquake that might trigger landslide

flash flood

warm weather

rapid snow melt in highlands

Seasonal melt water flooding weather and water forecasts

wind, wave and storm surge forecast

flood risk storm surge frozen soils and rivers

intense rain

Factors that amplify flooding intense rain

water does not stop and slides down

mountain forest

cleared forest areas

intensified run-off from the mountains

rainwater accumulates on roads due to impermiable surface and lack of drainage

Glaciers erode the land and form depressions that fill with water as the glaciers melt. Climate change is accelerating the melting of glaciers and increasing the rate of glacial retreat. The number of glacial lakes may increase, and the ice dams may give way in sudden releases known as glacial lake outburst floods. These events tend to build in power and scale as they move downstream collecting sediments, unconsolidated rocks and debris. Heavy rains can trigger flash floods and landslides, especially in mountain areas where slopes are cleared of vegetation. Without the root systems of trees and shrubs to hold the soil in place, these slopes can give way as sheets of rainwater sweep downhill. Weather forecasts for heavy rains can provide some warning for downstream communities, but hydromets have little role in improving slope stability.

Flatland rivers and streams are subject to springtime flooding when sudden warming melts snow faster than the ice in rivers. Frozen soil channels the melt water into the rivers, and floods can develop rapidly as the melt water flows over the river ice. The timing and scale of these events are hard to predict, but hydro met forecasts of quickly rising temperatures along with weekly hydrological forecasts can provide some warning. Impermeable surfaces in urban areas and the absence of vegetation on slopes in rural areas contribute to flooding by accelerating the downhill course of water. Inadequate drainage in built-up areas contributes to this run-off problem.

ned

ris 2015 reement

h, c

Climate change responses Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV)

d es

Panel e (IPCC)

cal O)

Participation in climate negotiations and reporting to UNFCCC

Greenhouse gas emissions

GHG inventories Sectoral improvements and carbon markets Land and forest management

Growth in renewable energy

Wind, solar, biomass and hydropower Economic incentives Adaptation

Climate resilienceenergy in keyefficiency economic sectors Increasing Hydropower and critical and infrastructure Stoves, buildings cars Agricultural andand housing insurance Industry agriculture Diversification of income sources

National policies

Climate Adaptation Action Plans Link adaptation to economic development Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

Global 2ºC target

Climate resilience in key economic sectors Hydropower and critical infrastructure Agricultural and housing insurance Diversification of income sources

National policies

Climate Adaptation Action Plans Link adaptation to economic development Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies

Local involvement and site-specific activities Increased participation of NGOs Link adaptation to local self-governance Traditional knowledge and innovations

United Nations

Framework Convention Local involvement and site-specific activities

Increased participation of NGOs Link adaptation to local self-governance Traditional knowledge and innovations Climate financing and

on Climate Change (UNFCC)

Paris 2015 Agreement

technology transfer Needs assessments Green Climate Fund (GCF) Education, training and public awareness Global Environment Facility (GEF) Information dissemination

Adaptation Fund (AF) Training and teaching

Science, research, and systematic observations

Supportive role Service provision

Training and teaching

Climate monitoring and early warnings Climate modelling

Global data exchange

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Prominent role

Education, training and public awareness Information dissemination

Climate impact and vulnerability studies

g s

nge

Adaptation

Mitigation and clean energy

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

In Central Asia, hydromets play a larger role in climate change than hyroleTheir involvedromets inProminent other areas. ment often extends to the compiling of Supportive role greenhouse gas inventories, national Service provision reporting to the UNFCC, acting as focal points, participating and even leading delegations to international climate change conferences, and coordinating national climate change policy. As more agencies and ministries become engaged in climate issues, and as climate change knowledge and expertise become established throughout a range of sectors, hydromets are likely to occupy a less prominent role.

4 How hydromets function Basic weather forecasting builds on a foundation of observations and measure ments taken remotely from satellites and balloons, and from an array of ground stations, many of which are automated and many still manual. These activities generate huge amounts of data that need to be transmitted, processed and analysed, and the global weather enterprise now relies on cloud computing for the capacity required. National and regional hydromet centres work together with the global weather and climate data centres to generate information for weather forecasts and early warnings and for analysts and managers in climate services, agrometeorology and hydrology. Hydrological information is of particular importance in Central Asia, where densely populated areas depend on irrigated agriculture, and the energy security of the mountain countries rests on the reliability of water flow information and forecasts.

Top: Automated river gauge, Yezgand, Tajikistan Bottom: Forecasters’ room, Tajikistan

How hydromets function Most of the labour force in hydromet services is occupied with manual observations in stations typically staffed with 3–4 people providing around-the-clock coverage. The transition from manual to automated observations entails a four- to five-year period of parallel observations. Cross-border data sharing among hydromets improves the reliability of forecasts, and radar and numerical forecasts, which are more expensive, increase the accuracy of short-term forecasts. The hydromet situation rooms, where forecasters use multiscreen displays to handle information from several sources, are migrating to all-in-one stations that allow the forecasters to overlay the separate displays.

Climate records archives, Kyrgyz Hydromet

The climate services function prepares analys es and tracks trends in temperature and pre cipitation and other hydrometeorological data, produces information for key economic sectors and policymakers, and reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. As the Central Asia hydromets approach their 100th anniversaries, they have enormous amounts of historical data that may be useful in climate change analyses, but not all

the data are digitized, and even those data that are digitized can be difficult to retrieve. Agrometeorology takes basic climate information and collects supplemental information of interest to agriculturists – pasture conditions, soil moisture content, and phenology – and provides forecasts and analyses to government officials and farmers. The agrometeorology products rely on remote sensing for collecting information on vegetation and land use. The hydrology function mirrors weather forecasting in its range of remote and ground-based collection of observations, and in its processing and analysis of the data. Climate trends in precipitation patterns and the cryosphere inform the projections of river flows, and help water managers adjust their plans to the changing parameters. Hydropower operators in particular need hydrology forecasts so they can balance power production against downstream water user needs. Public health and safety officials rely on the combination of weather and hydrology forecasts to prepare for drought and heat stress on the one hand and flooding on the other.

In most regions of the world, meteorological and hydrological functions are separate, but they have always been together in Central Asia – a model that WMO wants more countries to follow. Hydrology services are less well known than weather services, but the importance of water for Central Asia hydropower and irrigation is so great that some national hydromets in the region have more hydro stations than weather stations. The hydromets track snowpack, rivers, lakes and the Caspian Sea and reservoirs behind hydropower dams, but do not track dam discharges or water diversions to canals. These diversions of unknown quantities of water compromise the ability of analysts to make downstream projections. Transport safety on roads and waterways depends on weather and hydrology forecasts, and on specialized observations that alert officials to the risk of avalanche, icy conditions, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods. These observations come from fixed sensors and cameras, manual stations, snow gauges and mobile radar on the ground, and from drones, helicopters and satellites. Specialized observations are typically related to seasonal occurrences – with avalanche monitoring being the most common – or to specific research. Environmental monitoring is another type of specialized observation, and includes air, water and soil sampling and analysis as well as radiation monitoring, which benefits from a robust network dating from the Cold War era of nuclear testing and later applied to nuclear power. Lab testing produces findings for reports on pollution and radiation levels.

Installation of new equipment, Tajikistan

Many hydromets have all their functions under one roof – sometimes as part of larger ministry – but do not necessarily integrate all their data. User engagement is a developing dimension in hydromet services, but for research and development, the hydromets generally rely on outside expertise, a situation that can mean that local knowledge plays little or no role. Professional education for hydrologists and meteorologists is limited in the region.

Typical hydromet functions Observation network

IT department

Press coverage

Calibration and network department

Hydrology

User engagement and marketing

Climate conference & other international engagement 54

Data archive

Weather forecasting

SMS

Agrometeorology

Radio & tv

Natural hazard

Field research Urban environment

Climate department

Environmental monitoring

Research and training

Meteorology and weather forecasting Ground observations, Automatic

Snow gauge

Wind direction and speed

Data collection from remote stations can be difficult.

Visibility and camera

Ground observations, Manual

10 meters above ground

Observations are taken every three hours, 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Manual weather stations include tools to measure conditions and transmit weather data.

Temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure

Temperature, humidity Precipitation

Precipitation meter

Snow height meter

Data logger

1.5 metres above ground

Data transmitter

2 metres above ground

Meteorologists working at the stations have education and experience to interpret the data. Moisture content and soil temperature at different depths

Sunshine recorder

Analysis of dust and precipitation, including radiation levels

Weather satellites Geostationary and orbiting satellites

Upper air sounding Globally synchronized observations twice a day at 00 and 12 UTC

The AMDAR Observing System

Temperature and wind profile at altitudes up to 30 km

Neighbouring countries share the data they collect.

Weather radar Detects rain, snow, wind and hail

Hydromet IT and data processing

Cloud computing

National and regional data exchange and products from global centers

15 10y Numerous data er

ho ur s

flows into national hydromets, quality controlled and processed

Local realtime weather observations

y er v E

Global weather and climate data centers

National Hydromet Center

tes minu

Global data

Super computer

Numerical weather prediction products

Regional Hydromet Center

Specialized in region-specific severe weather events and processes

Severe weather warnings and seasonal weather outlooks

Weather forecasting Meteorological data for other applications

Early warnings

Weather forecasts for other applications

Weather forecasts

Hydrology Agrometeorology Climate services

Numerous data being analysed by skilled forecasters for weather projections and early warnings. They work 24 hours in shifts, 365 days per year

Climate services Past

Digital and hard copy archives of climate data

Future Global climate change model

Climate data analysis and products

Present

UNFCCC 58

Climate yearbooks and bulletins International reporting on climate change

Farmer asking for advice

Satellite observations

Agrometeorology

Pasture conditions (phenology, productivity) Soil temperature and moisture content

Early warnings for frosts, heavy rains or hailstorms

Agrometeorology analysis Vegetation index

Plant growth Disease risk

Observations of vegetation phases

Meteorology forecast

Climatology

Data from micro-stations installed by farmers

Farmers Seasonal forecasts for agricultural planning

Government Input to food security assessments

Hydrology

Hydrology station

Snow pack measurements

Drought

Current measurements from bridge

Automatic hydrology station

Ground frost measurements

Sediment analysis

Manual hydrology station measuring water velocities in river channel sections to obtain a total discharge

Report on ice conditions

Snow cover

Stations in other countries Radar measurements of waves

Buoy and hydromet station at sea

fro

E ar

tio

sta

flo

n Tide measurements

Hydrology forecast

Hydropower

General information Irrigation

Meteorology forecast

State Water Cadastre 61

Specialized observations

Remote sensing of snow and glacial cover and processes

Manual station with avalanche warning

Station network for monitoring road conditions Ice conditions

Drone monitoring of mountain snow conditions, temperature and wind

Mobile hydromet observatory

Field observations

Monitoring snow cover, avalanche risk and glacial lakes by helicopter

Snow measure

Sensor and alarm for landslide and falling rocks

Data analysis Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) alarm Specialized observations support warnings for vulnerable areas

Environmental quality Clean air and water to support city life

Air sampling station

Radiation sensor

Chemical water sampling

Mo n th ly d a ta

Ecologically sensitive water bodies

odr

b io

ic log

s and

ed im

surv ents

Radiation sensor in case of emergency

Good soil and clean water to support agriculture Soil sampling

ily

da ta

Lab testing of air, water and soil samples

Radiation alarm Pollution level Environmental quality bulletin 65

Forecast accuracy

How to get hydromet information

Weather forecasts for 1–3 days or one week are easier to make than hourly forecasts, and tend to be more accurate, while the one-month forecasts are less precise. Projections for one month or for a season are based on current information, historical probabilities and professional experience, and are indicative of what to expect relative to the long-term average.

The basic products of all hydromets are weather forecasts and early warnings, which are always free and widely distributed. In Central Asia, like in many other parts of the world, the national hydrometeorological services were established as production organizations charged with collect ing observations, managing data and making weather forecasts. Client service was not part of their work, and providing additional information to users exceeded the original mandate. Consequently, the hydromets developed the practice of charging fees based on units of data requested. As the practice evolved, hydromets began working to provide high quality data that meets the complicated requirements of users, and to provide advice on what information users might need. Now, some subscription services are available, and hydromets can calibrate equipment and participate in contractual assignments for special purposes or major projects. As hydromets transition to a digital environment, they may develop a more sophisticated way to provide customized services and set fees.

Hourly hydrological forecasts rely on information on rainfall and on soil and ice conditions in watersheds, and typically relate to warnings of flash flooding. Water flow forecasts for up to a week out use data on snow cover, precipitation and river conditions. Monthly and seasonal forecasts rely on modelling. Wind gusts, heavy rains and flash floods are highly influenced by geography and can develop in minutes or hours. Issuing early warnings for a particular time and place for these events is challenging, but radar and high-resolution numerical weather prediction models are improving the accuracy of forecasts. For cold spells, heatwaves and droughts, forecasters provide reasonably accurate predictions over longer periods.

Forecast accuracy Specific data forecast: 1-12 hours

Specific data forecast: 1-3 days and one week out

Above or below average Outlook: 1 month

Above or below average Projection: seasonal

Weather

Well studied rivers

Water

Complex rivers

Extreme events

Flash flood Heavy rain

Local events Regional events (cold snap)

Local events

Regional events (heat wave)

Regional events (drought)

Temperature fluctuations

Each dot represents 20% accuracy

Less accuracy

More accuracy

How to get hydromet information Free hydromet information Radio TV

Climate reference book

Website and app

1. Demand for customized climate data

2. Information search and online request

Where can I get information to help me protect my crops?

3. Free advice or paid services depending on request

Hydromet Help Desk

5. Services tailored to user's need

4. Payment for customized data or services Hydromet marketing department

6. The benefits of using hydromet services

Diverse sources of weather information Official stations

Other observation

Advanced, aviation radar Specialized (road)

ssed on data Automatic station

n Local and simple

Hydromets follow World Meteorological Or ganization standards in making observations, collecting and analysing data and preparing forecasts. They collect their data for specific hydromet purposes, but others also collect observations and conduct analyses and hydro mets and their users may benefit from some data-sharing arrangements.

Advanced Scientists conducting glacier research have installed many expensive, technologically advanced stations that provide reliable data. An exchange of data with hydromets data could benefit both parties. Similarly, airports operate expensive weather radar that collects the high-quality observations necessary for aviation safety, and while the sector cooperates with hydromets, not all aviation data are integrated into forecasts. The development of a weather radar network would require new institutional and technological arrangements, but would less expensive than duplicating the radar installations and would improve short-term forecasting.

Basic As small farms in the region replaced industrial operations, many more individual growers now need weather and climate data that is specific to their location and crops. While some farmers subscribe to remote sensing services for information on local conditions, other growers set up their own mini-stations, and collect and use basic data. Many more farmers are now among the hydromets’ clientele, and opportunities exist for data sharing and closer client relations.

Sector-specific Some organizations gather specific information to fill their data gaps through the installation of their own narrowly focused stations that collect those few observations that fill in missing pieces in the hydromet coverage. The linking of the observations from these stations with the hydro met observations may benefit both parties, and in the longer term the exchange of data may lead to deeper cooperation and mutual adjustments of equipment and measurements.

Processed observation data Alpinist, construction worker

Automat station

Relocation of stations Relocation

Built up

On occasion, a hydromet station needs to be relocated in response to new conditions in its vicinity. Longstanding urban stations may have cities grow up around them as large buildings replace open spaces, and over time the microclimate around the station changes and affects the observations. Remote stations may have to give way to road or mining developments or to changes in property rights. Where such stations have been collecting data in long time series, the relocation can disrupt the series, even in short-distance moves. From the perspective of the data, these are new stations, and the longterm continuity of the original station may be lost, in which case analysts may have to reconcile the new with the old.

Development near the Almaty meteorological station

Diverse sources of weather information International weather apps Data from global and regional weather apps

Data from Hydromet

? Website not adapted to mobile

Website adapted to mobile

More accurate forecasts from official source

Twenty years ago, official hydromet forecasts were the sole source of weather information in the region, and most people got these reports via television or radio. Now mobile weather apps are available on many media, and accessibility matters more to some users than the reliability of the information. Hydromets in Central Asia maintain official weather websites, but do not yet offer mobile apps. The Meteo Swiss app is a fine example of how to present integrated information on multiple parameters in an easy-to-understand format, and Central Asian countries are interested in learning how to emulate the Swiss success with their own weather apps to reach their users more directly.

Citizen observations vs. official reports Window thermometer

+47°C

Meteo station

+40°C Car thermometer

+44°C

Hydromets throughout Central Asia follow WMO guidelines, and use standardized equipment and procedures for observations and measurements. The protocols for these measurements are well developed, and are professionally implemented. Now that car and window thermometers and personal air quality monitors have become so popular, members of the general public feel empowered to take issue with any official reports that fail to agree with their own measurements, notwithstanding the vast differences in the quality of the instruments and the rigour of the protocols. With their credibility at stake, hydro mets may want to consider how to help the public understand the differences and the nuances.

Heat index and wind chill -5°C

-5°C

Wind chill

The way we experience colder temperatures depends on the wind, and the way we experience hotter temperatures depends on the humidity. The differences in what we experience and what the thermometer says are expressed as “wind chill” and “heat index”. When the temperature is -5°C, for example, and the wind speed is 40 kilometres per hour, we experience the temperature as -14°C. Similarly, when the temperature is 32°C and the relative humidity is 80 per cent, we experience the temperature as 44°C.

Hydromet public information products

Weather online

5 Country profiles The national hydrometeorological services of Central Asia provide hydrometeoÂ rological information for the common and specific needs of their countries and key sectors. Central offices of all national hydrometeorological services are located in the capitals.

Top: Oil pump, Kazakhstan Bottom: Pomegranate farmer, Tajikistan

Country profiles National and regional centres National and regional centres WMO World Meteorological Centre in Moscow Russian hydromet service and institutions

KazHydromet, central office Regional flash flood guidance center

Nur-Sultan

KazHydromet, Almaty office Regional Centre for Hydrology

KAZAKHSTAN Almaty

UZBEKISTAN

Bishkek Tashkent

snow and anche risk TURKMENISTAN

ich walnut in wettest arm areas

KYR

Kyrgyz Hydromet

Dushanbe

TJK

Ashgabat

Tajik Hydromet Turkmen Hydromet Uz Hydromet WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

Tashkent

Almaty

Regional specialized Meteorological Center under the World Meteorological Organization

Regional Center for Hydrology under the Interstate Foundation for the Aral Sea

Main functions and areas of expertise:

Numerical weather forecasting, support regional access and downscaling of weather products

Research, studies and expeditions on glaciers and water resources

Regional severe weather forecasting

Support best practices and training on hydrology and its applications

Quality control of observation data and global / regional data exchange

Coordination and implementation of the international projects on climate and hydrometeorology

The national hydromets in Central Asia all benefit from their common legacy from the Soviet era when the hydromets combined meteorology, hydrology and environmental observations in an integrated, well-funded approach. This organizing principle distinguishes hydromets in the region from those in many other countries where the services are segregated. After independence, some of the countries could not maintain the same level of funding, and the quality of the stations and equipment declined, while others managed to maintain their networks.

Tashkent, once the scientific and communication hub for all Central Asian hydromets, has transitioned to serving as the WMO Regional specialized meteorological centre (RSMC), which will feature prominently on the regional scene when the new numerical prediction models and could-based data exchange for Central Asia become fully operational. The regional center on hydrology (RCH) is supporting hydrometeorology modernization projects and promotes experience exchange. Among the current regional needs are glacier monitoring, regional climate outlooks and assessments, reliable seasonal water assessments for cross-border rivers, and the forecasting and early warnings for droughts and dust storms at the regional scale.

Meteorological station, Almaty

Kazakhstan The State Enterprise Kaz Hydromet is organized to accommodate the scale of the country and the diverse climate conditions. Under the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kaz Hydromet includes branches in all 15 provincial capitals as well as central and science offices in Nur- Sultan and Almaty. Founded in 1922, the national hydrometeorological service of Kazakhstan has grown over the years into a sophisticated network consisting of 328 meteorological stations and 310 river and lake gauges, many of which report daily to the global observation systems of the World Meteorological Organization. Several meteorological stations of Kazakhstan have conducted continuous observations for 100–150 years or more. More than 3 300 people are employed and most observations are still taken manually by field-based staff. The state-funded hydromet modernization programme is investing in the expansion and upgrade of the network of meteorological radar, automated stations and new methods and technologies of weather and water forecasting, all of which result in greater accuracy. Kaz Hydromet stands out in Central Asia in online availability of the basic information, including via mobile applications and text messaging, and provides early warnings, environmental quality monitoring and weather data. It publishes annual climate overviews, and runs its own climate models. An agrometeorological network of more than 200 stations supports farmers at all stages of crop planning and production, including forecasts of wheat yields, monitoring of soil moisture and assessments of damages caused by severe weather events. These assessments are mandatory for agricultural insurance. Hydrological bulletins and forecasts appear on Kaz Hydromet website daily. Data from six Kaz Hydromet maritime stations on the Caspian Sea are published weekly. A national magazine on hydrometeorology and ecology is published quarterly.

National hydrometeorological service of Kazakhstan in numbers 3 300

Nur-Sultan

People employed

Central office

328

3 100 m to -27 m

Meteorological stations, including automated

88 Agrometeo posts

Elevation range of hydromet observations

100

Meteorological and hydrological stations report internationally

Meteorological and marine radar units

Upper air (aerological) weather stations

Snow avalanche monitoring stations

310

Snow monitoring routes and glaciers regularly monitored

Hydrological gauges, including automated

500

Environmental quality monitoring locations, including air sampling stations

Data for November 2019

100

90-95% 1-7 days Forecast accuracy in hydrology:

kazhydromet.kz Official website and online services

Forecast accuracy in meteorology:

100

84-90%

seasonal water flow

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Kazakhstan Governmental agencies, local authorities and the general public receive free basic weather and water information, early warnings and notifications about pollution levels and environmental quality on a daily basis. The economic sectors with the highest demand for hydromet services in Kazakhstan are aviation, transport, energy and agriculture. TV and other mass media are also interested in official Kaz Hydromet forecasts.

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Kazakhstan Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological

Ene

Government and ministires y rg

Rail wa y

Fa r

Fa r al

tio

compani e nd cities sa

Sm l b Small bus us

n companie tio n

nd cities sa

u als

e in

ess usin ib

, individ ess in ss, induivid

ag r

Constru c

Oil O

TV, ma s

d ta ns aoda tr nsppoo Ro R

als

and rs anderas me m gr

rtrt

d gas sec an t

TV, ma s

2 500 m to -27 m

edia s m edia

Citizens

Rail wa y

Ene

Citizens

y rg

Constru c

to -27 m

Avi ati o

Nur-Sultan

ess usin ib

Domestic and international aviation is a key commercial Kaz Hydromet client. Aviation relies on localized and customized meteorological information, especially for upper air and Central office radar observations. The rail and road transport and energy sectors need data on extreme ge of servations events in specific locations as well as monthElevation range of seasonal outlooks to plan heating dely and hydromet observations mand and logistical connections and to ensure safety. As a major transit country in the region and with the increasing connections between al and Meteorological and Kazakhstan and China, Europe and the Middle units marine radar units East, the importance of hydrometeorological services for international transport and transit. The private-public partnership on the automatUpper air (aerological) ed meteorological stations along international rological) weather stations roads is an important step in that direction. The ons agricultural sector is an important producer of wheat and other cereal grains, and the country’s Snow monitoring hydrology calls for reporting and routes and complicated glaciers ring regularly monitored forecasts specific to local conditions.

Government and ministires

Avi ati o

information in Kazakhstan

laciers nitored Forecast accuracy in meteorology:

1-7 days uracy90-95% in

100

Forecast accuracy

in hydrology: 1-7 days

100

84-90%

seasonal water flow

uracy

Agrometeorology seasonal outlooks:

80-86% er flow crop productivity and

100

harvest dates

Recipients of the basic and free information, such as weather warnings and forecasts

Recipients of customized the basicsector-specific and free information, Recipients of the fee-based andwarnings informationand forecasts such asservices weather Recipients of thethecustomized sector-specific The bigger the size of sector circle, larger the relative services andservices information share or value offee-based the commercial hydromet

logy ooks:

vity and s

The bigger the size of sector circle, the larger the relative share or value of the commercial hydromet services

Kazakhstan Tobol

Land cover and features Rus sia

Kostanay

Uralsk

U ra l

y rga

Irgiz

Aktobe

Atyrau

Northern Aral Sea Western Aral Sea

K C

Aktau

Kyzylorda

n i a s p

Uzbek is t an a S e

Tur k menis t an

Petropavlovsk

Esil

Rus sia Lake Siletiteniz

Kokshetau

Es i l

Pavlodar

Ir t y

Nur-Sultan

Semey

Lake Markakol

Lake Tengiz

Karaganda r a l y r k a a K

Lake Zaysan

goz Aya

Ta r b

agatay

Sar

ys u

Zhezkazgan Lake Alakol

Lake Balkhash

Betpak-Dal a

Kara tol

Dzu

Al an i r ga

Ili

M u y u n k a T

la s

Chu

ya Dar Syr

Taraz Shymkent

Shardara Res.

Tajik is t an

Kapchagay Res.

Almaty T i a n

a n S h

China

Kyr g yz Republic Windy, cold Kazakhstan covers some 2.7 million square kilometres, and its unevenly distributed population lives mostly in the steppes and highlands. Its geographic features include the shallow northern Caspian Sea, vast wind-swept steppes, sandy and stony deserts and the magnificent Altai, Jungar and Tien Shan Mountains. All of Kazakhstan’s main rivers – Syr Darya, Ural, Irtysh, Ili, Chu and Talas are cross-boundary and originate outside of the country. Seasons are well defined with harsh and snowy winters and hot and dry summers. Droughts, floods,

strong winds and storm surges, cold snaps and avalanches are among the weather hazards affecting Kazakhstan. Climate warming is evident across the country and has already resulted in intense glacier melting and loss, which in turn changes the timing and magnitude of floods and leads to a multitude of future impacts. With its cold climate and high reliance on coal for energy, Kazakhstan emits more greenhouse gases than other countries of Central Asia, but the country is increasingly tapping its great potential for clean renewable energy – solar, wind and hydropower.

79 0

200 km

Map produced by Zoï Environment Network, September 2019

Kazakhstan Meteorological monitoring network

Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map

ToTbooblol

Hydrological station, on river/on lake

Fully automated hydrological station, on river/on lake

RusRus sia sia

1 000 mm

Uralsk

U ra l

Aktobe Aktobe

500

Kostanay

Annual average precipitation

Torgay y rga

Irgiz

g M

Shalkar

Atyrau Atyrau

Northern Aral Sea

Aralsk Western Aral Sea

Beyneu

Aralkum K

ne a i aS s np ai a

Uzbek is t an

Kyzylorda

K r an C an.

Uzbek Karatau is t an a

n aya

e st

dy tan

u rk

gun abu att

Bilikol

Avalanche observation

80 0

day

ra l

Arys

* Weather radar range is approximate and Tyulkubas varies per location and type of equipment

Shymkent

200 km

Lenger

Tur k menis t an Koksarayskoye Reservoir

K ele

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

20 Â°C

ksu

Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map

Arys

Tur k menis t an

Syr Darya

Stations reporting to WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS)

Sastobe

Unmanned automated weather station

-10

Agrometeorological and meteorological posts

Annual average temperature

Weather radar of uKazhydromet * gu n Weather radar of Kazaeronavigatsiya * o B Shawildir Upper air observations Arys Provincial hydrometeorological center Badam

a S e

Meteorological station

Ari s

s Cp

Aktau

Uzb.

Ky r.

Shemonaikha

Ridder

A Shulbinsk Res. rtysh

BeloBelousovka usovka n ka

Glubo

Glubokoe Glubokoe

Lake Siletiteniz

Oskemen

U la

n ka

Pavlodar Es i l Es i l

Ir t y

Nur-Sultan Nur-Sultan

Oskemen A l t Oskemen

Semey

Lake Tengiz

Malaya Ulba

Ulba

Ablaketk a

Dres vyan ka

Lake Siletiteniz

Kokshetau Kokshetau

a Ulb a

Rus sia

Es i

l Es i

Kra s n oya r k a

a Ub

Petropavlovsk

Serebryansk Irtysh

Lake Markakol

Karaganda Karaganda

Arkalyk Lake Tengiz Arkalyk

Lake Zaysan Lake Zaysan

Ayagoz

Ta r b

oz ag oz ag

agatay

r a l y r k a a K

laTsa la

Lake Alakol

Lake Balkhash Kara tol

Shyganak Shyganak

M u y u n k a

Lake Alakol

Chu

Taldykorgan Taldykorgan

Dzu

Al an i r ga

IliIl i

KapchagayRes. Res. Kapchagay

Almaty Almaty T i a n

China

a n S h

Taraz Taraz Shymkent Shymkent

Kyrggyz yz Republic Republic Kyr

Ka ske len

Uzynagash Kargaly

s sy

Almaty

Esik Esik Talgar Talgar

Turgen

Shymbulak

Kaskelen Mynzhylki

Tajik is t an

Turg

Shamalgan

Zhetigen

aty Big Alm

M alM. AalamyatAinlkmaatinka

Shardara Res. Shardara Res.

Talgar

ys u

Sar

Balkhash Balkhash

Betpak-Dal a

rya yDaa DSayr Syr

Zhezkazgan

Kyr g y z Re publ i c

k Chili

Kazakhstan Hydrological monitoring network Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map

Tobol

Hydrological station, on river/on lake Fully automated hydrological station, on river/on lake

Kostanay

Annual average precipitation 0

500

Rus sia

1 000 mm

Uralsk

U ra l

Aktobe

Torgay y rga

Irgiz

Shalkar

Atyrau

Northern Aral Sea

Aralsk Western Aral Sea

Beyneu

Aralkum K

Uzbek is t an

n i a s p

Kyzylorda l k u

K a

r an C an.

Karatau

n aya

e st

dy tan

u rk

Ari s

Aktau

gun abu att

Bilikol

day

ra l

a S e

Shawildir

Sastobe

Arys

ksu

Tur k menis t an Syr Darya

Arys

Badam

Shymkent

Tyulkubas

Lenger

Koksarayskoye Reservoir

K ele 200 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Uzb.

Ky r.

Shemonaikha

Ridder

Dres vyan ka

Lake Siletiteniz

n ka

Glubo

Ulba

Oskemen

U la

n ka

Pavlodar

Es i l

Ir t y

Nur-Sultan

Oskemen A

Semey

Serebryansk Irtysh

Lake Markakol

Karaganda

Arkalyk Lake Tengiz

r a l y r k a a K

Ta r b

oz ag

Lake Zaysan

Ayagoz

agatay

Malaya Ulba

Es i

Belousovka

Glubokoe

Kokshetau

a Ulb a

Ablaketk a

Shulbinsk Res. rtysh

Rus sia

Kra s n oya r k a

a Ub

Petropavlovsk

Balkhash

Lake Alakol

Lake Balkhash

Betpak-Dal a

Kara tol

Taldykorgan Shyganak

M u y u n k ya Dar Syr

Tal a

Chu

Dzu

Al an i r ga

Ili

Kapchagay Res.

Almaty

T i a n

China

a n S h

Taraz

Shymkent

Kyr g yz Republic Zhetigen

Tajik is t an

Uzynagash

Turgen

Esik Talgar

Almaty

Kaskelen

Kargaly

s sy

Shamalgan

Ka ske len

Turg

Malaya Almatinka aty Big Alm

Shardara Res.

Talgar

Sar

ys u

Zhezkazgan

Kyr g y z Re publ i c

k Chili

Kazakhstan Tobol

Environmental monitoring network

Esil

Kostanay

Rus sia Uralsk

U ra l

Aktobe

Torgay y rga

Irgiz

Atyrau

Shalkar Northern Aral Sea

Aralsk Western Aral Sea

n i a s p C a

Beyneu

Aralkum

Aktau

Kyzylorda

a S e

Uzbek is t an Water monitoring Air monitoring

1 000 000

Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map

500 000

Population density

Population of major cities

200 000 100 000 50 000 20 000

Tur k menis t an

Petropavlovsk

Rus sia

Kokshetau Lake Siletiteniz

Pavlodar Es i l

Ir t y

Nur-Sultan

Oskemen

Semey

Lake Markakol

Lake Tengiz

Arkalyk

Karaganda Lake Zaysan

Ayagoz Ay

oz ag

Zhezkazgan Balkhash Lake Alakol

Sar

ys u

Lake Balkhash Kara tol

Taldykorgan Ili

Kapchagay Res.

Chu

ya Dar Syr

a la

Almaty

China

Taraz Shymkent

Kyr g yz Republic

Shardara Res.

Tajik is t an 85 0

200 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

The Kyrgyz Republic The Agency on Hydrometeorology (Kyrgyz Hydromet) under the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic has its roots in the national hydrometeorological service established in 1926. The oldest weather station – Asksu, on the northern coast of Issyk-Kul Lake – began its observations in 1856. Three other stations – Naryn, Baitik and Pacha-Ata – have climate records for more than 100 years. The high mountain stations at altitude of 3 000 metres and above include Teo-Ashuu, Sary-Tash and Tien Shan with records of 60–90 years. Today’s country observation network covers 55 meteorological stations, including 3 operational snow and avalanche stations. Two more avalanche stations will be established soon to improve public safety at strategic mountain roads. In addition to meteorology, half of weather stations monitor radiation levels. Supported by the World Bank hydromet modernization project, automated weather stations were installed at many manned stations and at remote sites to improve weather data coverage and forecasting. Currently 78 river and lake gauges are operational, but the level of automation in hydrology remains low. In addition to the observation network upgrade, the hydromet modernization project invested in enhanced data management systems, numerical weather forecasting methods, a calibration laboratory, and distance learning centres in Bishkek, Osh and Cholpon-Ata. Digitalization of the massive historical data sets is progressing. Future plans include installation of early warning systems for glacial lakes, and upgrades of weather and water forecasting methods and technologies for higher accuracy. User engagement and outreach will be growing. Considering the complex mountain weather and inaccessibility of many remote parts of the Kyrgyz Republic, the national hydrometeorological service intends to expand its own network and to increase cooperation with other networks from scientists to key sector actors such as road and hydropower operators to provide better service and more complete geographical coverage.

National hydrometeorological service of the Kyrgyz Republic in numbers 530

Bishkek

People employed

Central office

3 600 m to 500 m

Meteorological stations, including automated

10 Agrometeo posts

Elevation range of hydromet observations

Meteorological and hydrological stations report internationally

Meteorological radar units

Upper air (aerological) weather stations

Snow avalanche monitoring stations

Snow monitoring routes and glaciers regularly monitored

Hydrological gauges, including automated

Environmental quality monitoring locations, including air sampling stations

meteo.kg Official website and online services

Data for November 2019

Forecast accuracy in meteorology:

100

Forecast accuracy in hydrology:

50 0

90-95% 1-7 days

100

80-90%

seasonal water flow

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyz Hydromet performs its functions according to the international WMO standards and recommendations, and provides governmental authorities, the general public and key economic sectors with weather forecasts and early warnings, and conducts environmental monitoring. The energy, mining, transport, agriculture and tourism sectors all rely on Kyrgyz Hydromet information and services.

Main clients of general and customized hydro— meteorological information the Kyrgyz Republic Main clients of general and customizedinhydrometeorological

m to 500 m

and ministires

Bishkek

Citizens

wer po o Government dr Citizens

Min ing

The mountains of the Kyrgyz Republic play a special role in water formation for greater ffice Central Asia, and hydropower stations here are crucial elements in managing water resources for downstream users and for the production of Central office electricity for domestic purposes. The hydrorange of power and mining sectors – both operating in observations the high mountains – use specialized hydromeElevation range of teorological information for planning business hydromet observations operations, ensuring industrial safety and anticipating production peaks and lows. Mining sites gical and are scattered across the country, and climate Meteorological and are an increasingly important part of dar units services marine radar units planning for safety and for conducting impact assessments.

Government and ministires

Min ing

information in Kyrgyzstan

er ow op dr

Construc ti

mass med i V,

Small bu

sa n

es citi

co on

t and

ompanies a n nc o mpanie es citi

agrib u

ism, telecom our ism, :t our

Prosp ec t

Farm e

and agribuand rs s

ess sin

Farm e

RRooaad d

r d av avia an to osrp tio iat ion nrsapn n a tr t ess sin

ess, individ sin

in the Kyrgyz transport connects the country's regions. Climate and water information is essential for planning, and the Snow monitoring reliability and safety of transport operations are routes and glaciers nitoring regularly monitored directly related to weather conditions and early d glaciers warnings of the risk of mudflows, avalanches monitored and wind Forecast accuracy in gusts.

ls ua

Upper air (aerological) (aerological) Road expansion is booming weather stations tations Republic, and surface and air

ess, individ sin ls ua

Small bu

3 600 m to 500 m

teleco m

meteorology:

1-7 days new forms of agriculture such as accuracy in Emerging 90-95% greenhouses, drip irrigation systems and ingy:

100

tense orchards require specialized and localaccuracy days ized weather data. Their profitability depends % 1-7Forecast in hydrology:

90%

on weather and climate. Farmers and herders seasonal water flow significantly from agrometeorological benefit accuracy and climate services. Tourism is an emerging gy: Agrometeorology sector with its own needs for hydromet services seasonal outlooks: 100 related to snowfall and mountain safety.

water60-80% flow

crop productivity and harvest dates

Recipients of the basic and free information, such as weather warnings and forecasts

Recipients of the basic and free information,

Recipients of the customized sector-specific suchservices as weather warnings and forecasts fee-based and information

Recipients of the customized sector-specific

The bigger the size of sector circle, the larger the relative information share or value of thefee-based commercialservices hydromet and services

orology outlooks:

uctivity and ates

The bigger the size of sector circle, the larger the relative share or value of the commercial hydromet services

Kyrgyz Republic

C hu

Land cover and features K a z ak hs t an

Belovodskoe

Kayyngdy

Bishkek

Kara-Balta

Talas

Kyzyl-Adyr

e re

Toktogul

Ko k

Toktogul Reservoir N ar

Kara-Kul

Tash-Komur

Uzbek is t an

Kochkor-Ata

a R

Uzgen

Gulcha

Uzb.

Taj .

Osh Kyzyl-Kyya

Batken

Isfana

Ta r

Jalal-Abad

K a ra D a r y a

Ala bug a

tkal Cha

Uzb.

Khaydarkan

Daroot-Korgon

Nookat

y l-Su Kyzy

Sary-Tash u

China Tajik is t an

K a z ak hs t an

Tyup Cholpon-Ata

Bokonbayev

C hu

Kochkor

Song-Kol

Bayetovo

haz ydz

Naryn

At-Bashi

S ay Ak-

Chatyr-Kol

i N a r yn

Kyzyl-Suu

I s sy k- Kul

Balykchy

Karakol

Kemin

Sar

Tokmok

China

The complex atmospheric, geographic and topographic conditions in the small mountain country of the Kyrgyz Republic create distinct regional climates â€“ in the Ferghana Valley, around the capital city of Bishkek, in the high elevations, and at Issyk-Kul Lake. In the south, the Ferghana Valley features favorable conditions for agriculture, with a warm climate and natural protection against cold air. The central part of the country consists of high

mountain plateaus, peaks and glaciers, and can be bitterly cold with quickly changing weather conditions. To the east, encircled by spectacular mountains, Issyk-Kul Lake exhibits a unique climate where one side of the lake is the driest area of the country and the other side receives the highest annual snowfall. In winter, the plentiful powdery snow is a key asset for the famous ski resorts, and in summer, more than a million visitors, local residents and international tourists alike, come to Issyk-Kul for swimming and hiking.

89 0

50 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Kyrgyz Republic

C hu

Meteorological monitoring network

Jany-Jer Kant

Sokuluk

Belovodskoe

Kayyngdy

Bishkek

Kara-Balta Baytik Kashka-Suu Ala-Archa

K a z ak hs t an Talas

Talas

Kyzyl-Adyr

A Teo-Ashu

Bakai-Ata Suusamyr It-Agar

Chaek

e re Ko k

om Sary-Chelek

Toktogul Reservoir N ar

Pacha-Ata

Ala-Buka

Kara-Kul

Kazarman

Tash-Komur

Ak-Terek Ala bug a

tkal Cha Chapchyma Pass (Ravat) (planned station)

Toktogul Chatkal

Sary-Bulak Uch-Kurgan

Uzbek is t an

KochkorAta Massy

Jalal-Abad Uzgen

K a ra D a r y a

Kara-Suu

Aravan

Kyzyl-Kyya Ak-Turpak Chek

Kulundu

Batken

Isfana

Taj .

Marcaz

Uzb.

Gulcha

Nookat

Isfairam-Sai

Uzb.

Khaydarkan

Ta r

Osh

Daroot-Korgon

y l-Su Kyzy

Kyzyl-Zhar

Sary-Tash u

Abramov glacier

China Tajik is t an

K a z ak hs t an

Balbai

Tyup Shabdan

Kemin

Ysyk-Ata

Karakol Chon-Ashu

Bokonbayev

C hu

Kochkor

Song-Kol

Dolon Pass

Chatyr-Kol

Naryn

At-Bashi

S ay Ak-

haz ydz

Naryn

Bayetovo

n e

N a r yn

Enylchek glacier

Tien-Shan

Kara-Kuzhur

Kyzyl-Suu

I s sy k-Kul

Balykchy

Cholpon-Ata

Sar

Tokmok

China

Meteorological station with manual and automated observations

Avalanche observation

Agrometeorological and meteorological posts Unmanned automated weather station Stations reporting to WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS)

Annual average temperature -10

20 Â°C

Glacier and science stations

91 0

50 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Kyrgyz Republic

C hu

Hydrological monitoring network

Bishkek Belovodskoe

Kayyngdy

K a z ak hs t an Kyzyl-Adyr|Kirov Res. Mouth|Chimgentskiye

Klyuchevka|Talas Talas Oktyabrskoye Ur-Maral

Kyzyl-Adyr Kirova|Kara-Buura

Urochishche Chon-Kurchak Kyurkyureo-Suu

Belogork Sokuluk

Kara-Balta

Chunkurcha Alamedin Kashka-Suu Ala-Archa

Chon-Kaindy|Chon Kaindy Chon-Aryk|Ak-Suu Sosnovka|Kara-Balta z

Kara-Oy|Talas

Talas

Ak-Tash|Talas

Kara-Oy|Uch-Koshoy Golova Aryka Saz Besh-Tash

Zhany Kyumyush-Too

Bala Chychkan|Chychkan

e re

Toktogul Uchterek|Naryn

Mouth Ustasay|Uzunakmat

Ko k

al atk Ch

Toktogul Reservoir

Aflatun|Aflatun

N ar

Kara-Kul

Mouth|Karasuu

Tash-Komur Shamaldysay|Naryn

Shaydan|Shaydansay Ala bug a

Mouth Tostu|Padysha-Ata

Charbak|Tentek-Say

Mayli-Suu|Mayli-Suu

Uzbek is t an

Kochkor-Ata

Mouth Karakol|Aravansay Uch-Korgon|Isfayram-Say

Kyzyl-Kyya

Batken Taj .

Isfana

Uzb.

Khaydarkan

Gulcha

Ustye|Karakol

Gulcha|Kurshab

Nookat

Koschan|Karakol

Zhanynooukat Aravansay

Dzhiydelik|Shakhimardan

Uzb.

Cholma|Tar

Kyrgyz-Ata Kyrgyz-Ata Mouth Min-Teke|Akbuura

Daroot-Korgon

y l-Su Kyzy

Ta r

Osh

Sary-Tash u

Daroot-Korgon|Kyzyl-Suu

China

Tajik is t an Hydrological station, on river/on lake Fully automated hydrological station, on river/on lake Cholma|Tar

Name of the station, name of river/lake Permanent snow and ice

Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map

Annual average precipitation 0

500

1000 mm

K a z ak hs t an

Sar

Kochkor

Song-Kol

i N a r yn

Baetovo

Mouth|Malyy Naryn Naryn|Naryn

Mouth|Bolshoy Naryn

Naryn

At-Bashy

S ay Ak-

Chatyr-Kol

Kara-Say|Ton

China

93 0

50 km

Map produced by ZoÃ¯ Environment Network, September 2019

K a z ak hs t an

Bishkek

Kara-Balta Ta l a s

C hu

Tokmok

I s s y k- Ku l

Balykchy

Talas

Song-Kol Toktogul Reservoir

al atk

Naryn

Tash-Komur

Jalal-Abad

Uzbek is t an

Uzgen

Osh

Chatyr-Kol

Kyzyl-Kyya Uzb. Batken Isfana

Uzb.

Taj.

China

Sary-Tash

S uu Kyzyl-

Tajik is t an 0

100 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Kyrgyz Republic

Environmental monitoring network Water monitoring Air monitoring

1 000 000

Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map

500 000

Population density

Population of major cities

200 000 100 000 50 000 20 000

Karakol

Kar

ri s

Lake Balkhash

to l

Kazakhstan

Ashchykol

Ili rt Ku

Akzhaykyn Koli

Moyinqum

Kapchagay

Chu

Kapchagay Res.

Tole Bi

Zhanakorgan

Janatas Aqkol

Sy r

Kentau

D ar

Qaratau

Turkestan

Bilikol

arty agh Qur

Talas

Merki

Taraz

Kara-Balta

Kemin

Issyk Kul

Kochkor

Talas

Arys

Bishkek

Almaty

Korday Tokmok

Balykchy

Baurzhan Momyshuly

Ary

Shu

Shymkent

Toktogul Res.

Toktogul

Song-Kol

Kyrgyz Republic

Qazyghurt

Chirchiq

Naryn

Map produced by Zoï Environment Network, September 2019

Uzbekistan

Climate change impacts and adaptation in the Chu and the Talas river basins Projected temperature change

Projected precipitation change

2050s compared to 1961 – 1990 (° Celsius) -2 +2 +4

2050s compared to 1961 – 1990 (%)

Melting and/or disappearing of glaciers due to climate change

+10%

-10%

Farmland: shortage of water resources by 2050 for agriculture

+5%

-5%

Decrease of productivity of forests Decrease of productivity of pastures

Range of river flow projections 2100

Border of the basin

Weak climate change (+1.5 °C / +10% precipitation): same flow as in current conditions

State borders

Strong climate change (+6.4 °C / -10% precipitation): flow reduction by 45 – 50% 4

1 km³/year

In 2006 Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic established the commission on the use of water management facilities in the Chu and Talas transboundary river basins. A joint board determines allocations and has considered climate change impacts and adaptation measures in its recent sessions and activities. The countries’ hydromets play a prominent role in the com-

50 km

mission’s work by conducting and coordinating water quality and quantity surveys and coordinating efforts on climate modelling using the methodologies and experience of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the Water Convention. The hydromets also prepare and share with water planners monthly and seasonal water forecasts.

Tajikistan Tajikistan’s State Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Committee of Environmental Protection (Tajik Hydromet) is a key player in country’s climate, water and weather observations. Ten weather stations in Tajikistan are more than 100 years old, and four date from the 1800s – Khujand (1866), Ura-Teppa (1873), Murgab (1892) and Khorog (1898). The peak density of the observation network was achieved in the 1970s–1980s with 70–75 meteorological stations and 136 river gauging stations. But many of those stations were in the remote mountains and expensive to maintain. The meteorological station at the Fedchenko glacier is at an elevation of 4 169 metres. It was manned and functioning between 1933 and 1995, and required helicopter deliveries of food and fuel supplies. Currently it operates as an automated weather station. The current observation network in Tajikistan consists of 54 manned and automated (same location) weather stations and 96 hydrological stations. Many stations are being automated with support of the international hydromet modernization projects. Tajik Hydromet employs about 700 people, but there is shortage of a skilled personnel and young staff. Professional training and higher education has improved access to numerical weather products and the quality of forecasts and early warnings. A higher level of automation of the observation network and better links with remote stations have increased data availability. With support of international donors, Tajikistan plans to build a new Tajik Hydromet central office building, rehabilitate stations for better working conditions, introduce robust links to all remote stations, and improve access to regional numerical weather models. New tools and technologies for remote sensing can help in water forecasts, glacier research and agrometeorological monitoring, while better user relations and better quality and diversity of Tajik Hydromet products will increase the applications of – and resulting benefits from – hydrometeorological information.

National hydrometeorological service of Tajikistan in numbers 700

Dushanbe

People employed

Central office

4 200 m to 300 m

Meteorological stations, including automated

Elevation range of hydromet observations

24 Agrometeo posts

Meteorological and hydrological stations report internationally

Meteorological radar units

Upper air (aerological) weather stations

Snow avalanche monitoring stations

Snow monitoring routes and glaciers regularly monitored

Hydrological gauges, including automated

Environmental quality monitoring locations, including air sampling stations

meteo.tj Official website and online services

Forecast accuracy in meteorology:

100

Forecast accuracy in hydrology:

50 0

85-90% 1-7 days

100

75-90%*

seasonal water flow

Planned in 2020: 5 new meteorological stations, 10 new hydrological gauges *Hydrological forecasts do not cover the Panj Rover – the largest river of Tajikistan Data for November 2019

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Tajikistan

Governments at all levels, emergency response authorities and the general public are the basic users of weather information and notifications of extreme events. The number one client for specialized hydrometeorological information is hydropower. Others include the aviation and transport sectors, and construction, tourism, telecommunications and agriculture are all poised to become users of specialized hydromet information and services.

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Tajikistan Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Tajikistan

Government and ministires

85-90%

Forecast accuracy in hydrology:

1-7 days 00

90%

seasonal water flow

uracy : Agrometeorology seasonal outlooks:

60-80%

crop productivity and ter flow harvest dates

TV, ma s

Farm ers

TV, ma s

Construct ion

and cit

rism, telecom ou :t

Prosp ec t

Construct ion

RoaR doad tt

nies apanies mpa comnd ci co t

Prosp ec t

d agribusine an

ies

t and adviatvioiat n ion por rt an nsspo a ran

d agribusine an ss

For the transport sector, the ridged mountain terrain of Tajikistan poses many challenges to Upper air (aerological) road safety â€“ avalanches and icy roads in winter, weather stations erological) flash floods in spring, high temperatures and ions dust storms in summer. Booming construction, tourism and telecommunication sectors can Snow monitoring all benefit from hydromet information, as can routes and glaciers farmers, many of whom are not yet familiar with regularly monitored oring the benefits of weather information and agroglaciers meteorological services. Through intentional Forecast accuracy in onitored meteorology:user engagement, Tajik Hydromet may raise 00 their knowledge and awareness, and bring them 1-7 days uracy in in as clients.

edia sm

4 200 m to 300 m

marine radar units r units

er ow op dr

edia s mCitizens

m to 300 m

Dushanbe

Government and ministires

ies

Hydropower generation is highly sensitive to weather and water conditions and relies on e forecasts for safe operations and good performance, and Tajikistan produces almost 95 per Central office cent of electricity at hydropower plants on the Vakhsh and Syr Darya rivers. Several power nge of plants â€“ large and small â€“ are under construcbservations Elevation range tion.ofThe hydromet service supports the hydrohydromet observations power sector and provides weather warnings of extreme events to the responsible authorities at all governmental levels with offices in every Meteorological and cal and province.

er ow op r d

Citizens

rism, telecom ou :t

Recipients of the basic and free information, such as weather warnings and forecasts Recipients of theofcustomized Recipients the basicsector-specific and free information, fee-based services and information

such as weather warnings and forecasts

The bigger the size of sector circle, the customized larger the relative Recipients of the sector-specific share or value of the commercial hydromet services

fee-based services and information

ology tlooks:

ivity and s

The bigger the size of sector circle, the larger the relative share or value of the commercial hydromet services

K a z ak hs t an

i n

ary a

Land cover and features

m r a u K

Syr D

Tajikistan

Kayrakkum Res.

Kanibodom

Khujand

Isfara

Zafarobod

Uzbek is t an Istaravshan

Taj .

Shahristan

T u r

Ayni

e o

t e

i n

Hissor

Faizobod

Garm

Nurek Res.

b kho Sur

the F ir t ter e P b ngo Khi

Kalai Khumb

Vakhsh

Dangara

Kofar

Tairsu

nih o n

Kulob Bokhtar

Vose

Kizilsu

Farkhor

Af ghanis t an Shahrituz Am uD a rya

98 0

50 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

j Pan

Jirgatal

Vahdat Yavon

r a K Rogun

Dushanbe Tursunzoda

ob Yagn

Yakhsu

Zaravshan

Kiz il s u

Panjakent

e R a n g

k e s t a n

a r

Uzbek is t an

Weather and climate conditions in Tajikistan are strongly influenced by mountains. Half the country is above 3 000 metres, with the highest summits exceeding 7 000 metres. Glaciers including ice giants measuring 20–70 kilometers cover nearly 6 per cent of the country, twice the area of its forest cover. Winter temperatures in the mountains can be as cold as -50°C, while southern lowland deserts during hot summer months can reach over +40°C. Tajikistan is prone to natural disasters and ranks high on

the international climate change impact lists. It is also Central Asia’s poorest country with high external debt – one of the reasons international donors provide development assistance mainly in the form of grants. Its rapidly growing population depends on rain-fed agriculture for food, and the national economy depends on irrigated agriculture for cotton exports. Glaciers and snow in the mountains comprise essential water reserve for the Amu Darya River, which drains into the Aral Sea.

Kyr g yz Republic

lsu Kyzy

Mu k

China

e n g R a

a y - A l T r a n s

Karakul

Fed c h e n

ge R a n r o

G a r mie G lac

Kara Kul

G er laci

R a

v a z

Ko kui bel

Savnob

Lake Sarez

ta n g

Bar

l e

e n g R a

Murghab

Gun

u Aqs

Murgh ab

g e a n

Yashilkul

Zor Kul

Khorog

ir Pam

Shakh

Af ghanis t an

d a ra

Langar j Pan

Ishkashim

P ak is t an

K a z ak hs t an

Meteorological station reporting to WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS)

Buston

Avalanche observation

Khujand Annual average temperature 0

Syr D

Kayrakkum Res.

Closed or non-functioning meteorological station

-10

ary a

i n

m r a u K

Meteorological station with manual and automated observations

Kanibodom

Kayrakkum

Isfara

Zafarobod

20 Â°C

Istaravshan

Uzbek is t an

Taj .

Shahristan

T u r

Panjakent

Shahriston Pass

e R a n g

k e s t a n

Zaravshan

Sangiston

Ayni

Dekhavz

Madrushkat

A Yagnob

Khushiery

Safed-Dara (planned) Bustonabad

Tursunzoda (planned)

Shainak

Vahdat

Hissor

Vakhsh

Yavon Isanbay

b ndo khi Obi

Nurobod

Dushanbe

Kalailabi-Ob

Garm

Faizobod

Rogun

Tavildara

Sagirdasht (planned)

(planned)

Kalai Khumb

Darwaz

Chormazak Sanglok

Nurek Res.

Sebiston (planned)

Khovaling

Kangurt (planned)

Muminabad

Dangara Gandzhina

Kofar

Tairsu

nih o n

Kulob

Bokhtar

Vose

Shamsidin Shohin (planned)

Khamadoni Kizilsu

Balkhi

Farkhor

Af ghanis t an Shahrituz Am uD a

rya

Ayvaj

100 0

50 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Nijni Panj

Jirgatal

Yakhsu

Anzob Pass

Maykhura

b kho Sur

Kiz il s u

Iskanderkul

Panj

j Pan

Uzbek is t an

Tajikistan Meteorological monitoring network

Kyr g yz Republic

lsu Kyzy

China

e n g R a

a y - A l T r a n s

Mu k

Altyn-Mazar (1932â€“1995)

Karakul

Kara Kul

Ko kui bel

Fedchenko Glacier (1932â€“1995, continued automatic observations)

Pshart

Savnob

Khumragi

Murgh ab Irkht

ta n g

Rushan

Gun

Murghab

Lake Sarez

u Aqs

Bar

Lyahsh

Yashilkul Bulunkul

Navobod

Shaymak

Zor Kul

Khorog

Javshangoz

d ar Shakh

ir Pam

Af ghanis t an

Langar j Pan

Ishkashim

P ak is t an

101

K a z ak hs t an

Fully automated hydrological station, on river/on lake

ary a

a Akjar|Syr Darya

Guliston|Kairakum Res.

Name of the station, name of river/lake

Khujand

Permanent snow and ice

Kanibodom

Kyzyl-Kishlak|Syr Darya

500

Isfara

Zafarobod

Annual average precipitation 0

Kayrakkum Res.

Closed or non-functioning hydrological station Vose|Yakhsu

i n

Syr D

m r a u K

Hydrological station, on river/on lake

1 000 mm

Istaravshan Shahristan Auchi Shirinsay

Sudjina|Magiyandarya

T u r

Kuloli|Daryaurech

Zerikhisor|Kshtut

Piniyen|Pasrut

Mouth|Shing

Start|Iskanderdarya Mouth|Sarytag North-east coast Iskanderkul

Khudgif|Zaravshan

Pid|Guzi

Zaravshan

Ayni

Khudgif|Samdjon

e R a n g

k e s t a n

Khusheri|Varzob Luchob|Luchob

Sangimaliki|Sarbog Sangikar|Sangikar

Darband Vakhsh

Takob|Takob

Sardai-Miena|Romit Dagana Rogun Varzob Alibegi|Khanaka Dushanbe Mouth|Pandema

Karatag Karatag

Faizobod

Tursunzoda

Hissor

Vahdat

Vakhsh

Kalaisang|Saryob Yezgand|Obikhindob

Bobokhonshaid|Kizilsu

Nurek Res.

Dangara

Tairsu

nih o n

Kurbonshahid|Kizilsu

Kofar

b ndo khi Obi

Khurk|Obiviskharvi Mouth|Obikhumbou

Kalai Khumb

Nurek|Nurek Reservoir

Shahbur|Tairsu

Bokhtar

Karboztonak|Yakhsu

Kulob Khirmanjo|Panj Vose|Yakhsu

Vose

Samonchi|Kizilsu Kizilsu

Tartki|Kofarnihon

Farkhor Tigrovaya Balka Vakhsh

Shahrituz Aiwanj Amu Darya Am

102 0

50 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

ar y

Af ghanis t an Nijni Panj|Panj

Tigrovaya Balka|Gulikovskoe Lake

Pa n

Jirgatal

Dagana|Nurek

Gofilabad Yangiyul|Ilyak Dagana

Yavon

Yakhsu

Dupuli Zaravshan

Panjakent

Taj .

Uguk Shogan

Kiz il s u

Uzbek is t an

Tash-Kurgan|Isfara

Uzbek is t an

Tajikistan Hydrological monitoring network

Kyr g yz Republic

lsu Kyzy Dombrachi|Kyzylsu Mu k Yarmazar Pitaukul

China

e n g R a

a y - A l T r a n s

Karakul Karakul

Karakul

Kara Kul

Davsear|Muksu

Ko kui bel

Sangvor|Obikhindob

Kudara|Tanymas Shavru|Tekharv

Ruhch|Kudara

Kudara|Kokuibel

Savnob

Bichkharv|Vanch

Nisur|Bartang

Rushan Vomardara

Lake Sarez

Barchadiv|Vovzit

Mouth|Lyangar

ta n g

Bar

Shidz|Panj

Murgh ab

Murghab Murghab|Murghab

u Aqs

Motravn|Yazgulem

Pshart|Murghab

Barchadiv|Murghab Irkht|Lake Sarez

Khidjez|Raumidara

Shujand|Bartang Shujand|HPP canal

North coast|Yashilkul Patkhur Patkhur

Gun

Alichur|Gunt

Yashilkul

Duakhdara|Toguzbulak

Zor Kul

Sardem|Gunt

Khorog Gunt

Mouth|Shoripdara Javshangoz|Shakhdara

Khorog

ir Pam

Khabost|Shakhdara

Tusen|Sharfdara

Sedj|Drumdara

d ar Shakh

Af ghanis t an

Langar

Garmchashma|Garmchashma Lyangar|Kishtijarob Ishkashim|Panj

Ishkashim

j Pan

P ak is t an

103

D Syr

Kayrakkum Res.

Uzbek is t an

Khujand

Kanibodom

Taj.

Istaravshan

China

lsu Kyzy

Zaravshan

Panjakent

Kyr g yz Republic

Isfara

Karakul

b Surkho

Kara Kul

Garm

Dushanbe Tursunzoda

Bokhtar

r ta Ba

Gun

Shahrituz ar y

Yashilkul

Vose

Farkhor

Lake Sarez

Kulob

izil su

Ko f a r

nih o n

Vakhsh

Dangara

Murghab Murghab

u Aqs

Res.

Savnob

Kalai Khumb Vahdat Yavon Nurek

ir Pam

Khorog nj

j Pan

Af ghanis t an

Ishkashim

P ak is t an 0

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Tajikistan

Environmental monitoring network Water monitoring

104

Population of major cities

Air monitoring

1 000 000

Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map

500 000

Population density

50 km

200 000 100 000 50 000 20 000

Kyr g yz Republic

Jizzax

Uzbek is t an

Ka sh kad ar y a

S 604

ho ur k

112 M uksu

Garm

Tajik is t an

ob ing 160 Kh

1950

nihon

Kofa r

Kholm

Taloqan

d n

ir Pam

an Wakh

P ak is t an

5 000

Chitral

Af ghanis t an

Murghab

Gunt

120

Pol-e Khomri

Feyzabad

Kunduz

r M u r gh

Khorog

Discharge fluctuation: +/-50% Bal kh

j Pan

Sheberghan

104

198

Mazar-i-Sharif

795

P a nj

1010 106

r ta

r ya

u Da

Termiz

563

Kizils u

162

Kulob

Bokhtar

Vakhs h

Atamyrat

Lake Sarez

36 133

Nurek Reservoir

Savnob

Sur kha nda r ya

Tu r k m.

Dushanbe

Karshi

China

Karakul

Panjakent

Sary-Tash

Zarafshan

Chit ral

Samarkand

Suu Kyzyl

Kashgar H e

Peak flow in June

4 000 Indus

3 000 2 000 1 000

Bamyan 0

100 km

Kabul

Map produced by Zoï Environment Network, September 2019

n Ku

t Swa

Jalalabad K

abu l

J FMAM J J A SOND

Hydrograph of the Panj River in 2005 Flow in Khamadoni district, Tajikistan Mardan Water discharge (m³/s)

The upper Amu Darya river basin and hydrology cooperation Scale of average annual flow (m³/s) 200

400

600

800

1 000

River regime Glacier-snow feeding Snow-glacier feeding

Hydrological station on transboundary river 563

Average annual flow(m³/s)

Snow-rain feeding

The Amu Darya River forms most of the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan, and is the longest, most complex river in Central Asia. The accuracy of hydrological forecasts for the Amu Darya depends upon the collection of many observations on its tributaries. Normal border security issues – plus the occasional gunfire – have limited the opportunities for observers to conduct their work safely, and reliable forecasts are rare. An agreement between the two countries for the exchange of hydrological data on the

shared river has contributed to improved information and awareness about the river, but data flow is still limited and irregular. The ongoing cooperation between the countries with support of the international community is exploring options for more robust hydrological observations and forecasting methods. The Upper Amu Darya is subject to seasonal flooding and flash floods, and Tajikistan’s cooperation with its upstream neighbour can improve flood risk forecasting and prevention.

105

Turkmenistan The Hydrometeorological Service of Turkmenistan (Turkmen Hydromet) was established in 1926, and several of its meteorological stations have climate observation records going back 100 years. Until recently, Turkmen Hydromet operated as an independent structure under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan. In 2019 it merged with the Ministry of agriculture and environmental protection of Turkmenistan. Turkmen Hydromet is fully financed from the governmental budget, and its paid and contractual services are minor. All basic information is provided to governmental and local authorities and the population free of charge. The Government of Turkmenistan recognizes the importance of its hydrometeorological service, and invests in modernization. The new building of Turkmen Hydromet quickly became one of Ashgabatâ€™s landmarks thanks to its large screen with a national weather map and official forecasts. The national hydrometeorological service employs more than 600 people to operate a network of almost 100 stations spread across the country and involved in disciplines from weather forecasting and marine observations to agrometeorological and hydrological surveys and climate data management. Most observations are manual, but increasingly weather stations are being automated. Climate research is an emerging area for Turkmen Hydromet as the country is vulnerable to climate change impacts such as the growing number of hot days, water deficits, flash floods in the mountains, and Caspian Sea level fluctuations. Accurate weather forecasts and early warnings depend on technical equipment, the density of the meteorological network, the skills of forecasters and numerical weather prediction. Under the Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Project, specialists from Turkmen Hydromet benefited from training, experience exchange and improved access to the regional weather prediction products. In 2014 Turkmenistan signed an agreement on cooperation in hydrometeorology for the Caspian Sea region. Six marine stations and three marine radar installations monitor the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea.

106

National hydrometeorological service of Turkmenistan in numbers 600

Ashgabat

People employed

Central office

2 200 m to -27 m

Meteorological stations, including automated

Elevation range of hydromet observations

5 Agrometeo posts 20

Meteorological and hydrological stations report internationally

Meteorological and marine radar units

Upper air (aerological) weather stations

Snow avalanche monitoring stations

Snow monitoring routes and glaciers regularly monitored

Hydrological gauges, including automated

Environmental quality monitoring locations, including air sampling stations

Forecast accuracy in meteorology:

50 0

100

Forecast accuracy in hydrology:

Official website and online services

Data for November 2019

85-90% 1-7 days

100

80-90%

seasonal water flow

m to 300 m

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or sect

oad transpo rt, n, r tio oad

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cÂ otton, wheat, fruits and vegetables. Upstream users generally receive enough water, but shortages are common near the Aral Sea. A small but Meteorological and private segment of the sector is plantical marine and radargrowing units ing new crops, and seeks hydromet information ar units specific to their needs including localized and specific weather data and early warnings of exUpper air (aerological) treme weather, such as heat waves, frost and weather stations aerological) dust storms that can affect crops and Âanimals. Turkmen Hydromet is providing climate data ations based on individual requests from farmers and Snow monitoring produces agrometeorological forecasts and routes and glaciers bulletins useful for agricultural enterprises. regularly monitored

d agribusine an

hydromet observations

dia me

300concern m of the agricultural sector central ange2of200 mA to Elevation range of availability of water for the irrigation of is the observations

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ompanies anGovernment d nc o andcitministires i t ies uc

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TV, mas s

Booming housing and commercial construction drive demand for climate information in the building sector, while oil and gas and transport companies are regular clients of the Turkmen Hydromet for specialized hydrometeorological data and services to ensure safety of their operations on the land, at sea and in the air. Airports and air carriers of Turkmenistan receive Central officespecialized services on the basis of agreements on mutually beneficial cooperation.

information in Turkmenistan

Con st r

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information Turkmenistan Main clients of general and customized in hydrometeorological

information in Turkmenistan, in addition to the key users among governmental ministries and the general public, are the construction firms, transport and energy companies, and farmers.

Con st r

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Turkmenistan The typical consumers of hydrometeorological

itoring glaciers Forecast accuracy in monitored meteorology:

85-90% 1-7 days

ccuracy in y: Forecast accuracy

Recipients of the basic and free information, such as weather warnings and forecasts

in hydrology:

days % 1-780-90%

seasonal water flow

ccuracy Agrometeorology gy: seasonal outlooks:

60-80% % crop productivity and

aterharvest flow dates

Recipients of the customized sector-specific Recipients theinformation basic and free fee-based servicesofand

information, such as weather warnings and forecasts

The bigger the size of sector circle, the larger the relative Recipients of the customized sector-specific share or value of the commercial hydromet services

fee-based services and information

rology utlooks:

ctivity and tes

The bigger the size of sector circle, the larger the relative share or value of the commercial hydromet services

107

K a z ak hs t an

K h KonyeUrgench

Garabogaz Karabogazgol Sarygamysh ctor Colle Lake guz sho

a Golden Age Lake

Turkmenbashi

Gre at B alk ha nR an g

Uz b oy

Hazar

Balkanabat

Bereket

Serdar

Ka rak um Ca nal

Gokdepe

Ashkhabad

Etrek

t D

With its southernmost location in Central Asia and its vast sandy deserts, Turkmenistan is hot and dry. The country is sparsely populated with concentrations along the base of the mountains, on the Amu Darya River and near the Caspian Sea. The largest desert is Karakum, covering 350 000 km2 – twice the size of Tajikistan. Rainfall is scarce, with an annual average 100 mm

108

100 km

Map produced by Zoï Environment Network, September 2019

in central parts of the country. In mountain areas precipitation is higher – up to 400 mm per year – where rainfall can trigger destructive flas floods. Summer temperatures in Ashgabat, the hottest capital city in Central Asia, reach +40°C, and can soar +50°C in the Repetek reserve. Winter is mild, but intrusions of cold Arctic air can lower air temperatures to -30°C.

Ir an

Turkmenistan

w a r a z m

Land cover and features

Dashoguz

Uzbek is t an u

Great Turkmen Collector

Turkmenabat

Amu D ar

Mary Tejen

Bayramaly

Kara kum Cana l

Kerki

Magdanly

Ko y Ra ten ng da e

Yoloten

g n Teje

Sarahs ab Murgh

Af ghanis t an Serhetabat

109

K a z ak hs t an

S. Turkmenbashy

K h

KonyeUrgench

Garabogaz

Akdepe

Karabogazgol

Sasenem

Duzlybogaz

Sarygamysh ctor Colle Lake guz o h s

Ekezhe

Cagyl

Golden Age Lake

Guwlymayak

Turkmenbashi

Gre at B alk ha nR an g

Awaza

Uz b oy

Derweze

Dawaly

Hazar

Yasga

Balkanabat

Bereket

Ogurjaly

Yerbent

Serdar Bekibent

Bugdayly

Magtymguly Ekerem

Ka rak um Ca nal

Aydere Duzlydepe

Bokurdak Nohur Garawul Konekesir

Etrek Esenguly Etrek

Baherden Akdepe

Gokdepe

Ashkhabad

Dusak-Erek dag

e Arcabil

Yaslyk Artyk

Kaka

Ir an

110

100 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network,September 2019

Turkmenistan

w a r a z m

Meteorological monitoring network

Boldumsaz Gubadag

Meteorological station

Dashoguz

Agrometeorological and meteorological posts

Gurbansoltan Eje

Unmanned automated weather station

Gorogly

Stations reporting to WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map Weather radar for aviation * Upper air observations Provincial hydrometeorological center Darganata

Annual average temperature -10

20 Â°C

* Weather radar range is approximate and varies per location and type of equipment

Akmolla Seydi

Uzbek is t an

Danew

Turkmenabat

Sakar

Great Turkmen Collector Margiana

Sayat

Gunorta

Repetek

Amu D ar

Bagtyyarlyk Pesanaly Babadayhan

Sakarcage

Altyn Asyr

Oguzhan

Denizhan

n Teje

Sarahs

Murgap

Halac

Kerki

Kara kum Cana l

Bayramaly

Mary Tejen

Garagum

Burdalyk

Magdanly

Ko y Ra ten ng da e

Garabekewul

Garlyk Koytendag

Turkmengala

Yoloten

Dowletli

Saryyazy

ab Murgh

Lekker Tagtabazar

Af ghanis t an Serhetabat

111

K a z ak hs t an

K h KonyeUrgench

Garabogaz|Caspian Sea

Garabogaz Karabogazgol Duzlybogaz|Caspian Sea

Sarygamysh ctor Colle Lake guz o h s

a Golden Age Lake

Guwlymayak|Caspian Sea

s Turkmenbashi

Awaza

Gre at B alk ha Turkmenbashi|Caspian Sea nR an g

Uz b oy

Hazar

Yasga|Lake Yasga

Balkanabat

Bereket

Ogurjaly|Caspian Sea

Serdar

Garagum 969 km|Karakum Canal

S Ekerem

Cat|Etrek Etrek|Etrek

Etrek Etrek

Duzly-Depe|Sumbar

Gyzylbayyr|Sumbar

Ka r

Magtymguly|Sumbar

Ca n

al Ipaygala|Arwaz

p Sekizyap|Sekizyap Altyyap|Altyyap

Gokdepe Arcabil|Firjuzinka

Ashkhabad

Ir an

112

100 km

Map produced by ZoÃ¯ Environment Network, September 2019

Turkmenistan

w a r a z m

Hydrological monitoring network Hydrological station, on river/on lake

Dashoguz Cat|Etrek

Name of the station, name of river/lake Sea radar Annual average precipitation 0

Darganata|Amu Darya

500

1 000 mm

Uzbek is t an

Turkmenabat Gjunorta|Gyzyl Burun Collector

Great Turkmen Collector

Gunorta|Janubiy Collector Gundogar|Amu Darya

Tejen

Zeyid|Zeyid Res.

Mukry|Amu Darya

Koyten|Kugitang

Magdanly

Basgatly Amu Darya

Kerki

y te

Bayramaly

Mary

Kerki|Amu Darya Karak um C anal

Zahmet|Karakum Canal

Amu D ar

Kelif|Amu Darya

Yoloten

Denizhan|Hanhowuz Res.

g Garagum 475 km|Karakum Canal

n Teje

Sarahs

Saryyazy|Saryyaz Reservoir M u rg h a b

Tagtabazar|Murghab Soyunaly|Murghab

Gulja|Kashan

Pullyhatyn|Tejen Kushka

Serhetabat

Af ghanis t an 113

K a z ak hs t an K ara

KonyeUrgench

Garabogaz

n C a s p i a

Sarygamysh Lake

Uzbek is t an

Golden Age Lake

Turkmenbashi

Hazar

Dashoguz

Balkanabat Bereket

a S e

Serdar

Kar aku mC ana l

Turkmenabat Gokdepe

Ashkhabad

Etrek

Mary

Tejen

Karakum Ca nal

Bayramaly

Magdanly

Turkmenistan

Af ghanis t an

Environmental monitoring network

114

Kerki

M urg h a

je n

Sarahs

Population of major cities

Air monitoring

1 000 000

Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map

500 000

Population density

Yoloten

Ir an

Water monitoring

D ar y

200 000 100 000 50 000 20 000

Serhetabat 0

100 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Caspian Sea coastline, Turkmenistan

Caspian seal, Turkmenistan

115

Uzbekistan The Hydrometeorological Service of Uzbekistan (Uz Hydromet) was established in May 1921. The first meteorological station – Tashkent Observatory – has conducted observations since 1867. In the Soviet period Tashkent city hosting Uz Hydromet was the hydrometeorological center for all the republics of Central Asia. Since independence, Uz Hydromet has served as WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for Central Asia, and has the capacity to run numerical weather prediction models and undertake research and training activities, and make climate change projections. Its scientific research institute NIGMI is conducting various hydrometeorological assessments and environmental studies. Its hydrometeorological college trains professional observers and junior specialists. Uz Hydromet operates an extensive network of 85 meteorological stations, 34 agrometeorological monitoring sites and 132 hydrological gauges. The service employs more than 2 200 people. The ongoing state-funded hydromet modernization programme is aiming to improve the working conditions at meteorological stations and central offices, increase the level of automation and introduce more advanced methods for weather and water forecasting. International donors are supporting Uz Hydromet modernization through procurement of automated weather stations and environmental sampling equipment. Environmental monitoring is conducted in 25 urban areas (air quality) at 60 sampling points, at 60 rivers and lakes at 100 sampling points (water quality) and at 40 meteorological stations (radiation). Hydro-biological studies focus on 10 locations of the Tashkent province. One station is tracking global and regional air pollutants at the remote Chatkal nature reserve.

116

National hydrometeorological service of Uzbekistan in numbers 2 200

Tashkent

People employed

Central office

3 000 m to 50 m

Meteorological stations, including automated

Elevation range of hydromet observations

34 Agrometeo posts

Meteorological and hydrological stations report internationally

Meteorological radar units

Upper air (aerological) weather stations

Snow avalanche monitoring stations

132

Snow monitoring routes and glaciers regularly monitored

Hydrological gauges, including automated

150

Environmental quality monitoring locations, including air sampling stations

meteo.uz Official website and online services

Data for November 2019

Forecast accuracy in meteorology:

100

Forecast accuracy in hydrology:

50 0

90-95% 1-7 days

100

80-90%

seasonal water flow

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Uzbekistan

Uz Hydromet maintains a website with basic user-friendly real time weather data and forecasts, environmental quality reviews and agrometeorological bulletins for governmental and public use. The most active commercial user of the specialized hydrometeorological information in Uzbekistan is aviation. Construction, energy and road transport are other users.

Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological information in Uzbekistan Main clients of general and customized hydrometeorological

Farmers an Citizens d

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Government and ministires

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Considering that half of Uzbekistanâ€™s population live in rural areas and are involved in agriculture, weather and agrometeorological information is ce of vital importance to their food and water security and their comfort. Commercial greenhousCentral officees, orchards, and plantations are booming in the country to serve both export and domestic markets, and farmers increasingly ask for localized ange of and crop-specific weather data. Uz Hydromet is bservations Elevation range keenofto respond to the growing demand and is hydromet observations seeking to further improve agrometeorological coverage.

information in Uzbekistan

glaciers Forecast accuracy in onitored

meteorology:

85-90% 1-7 days

curacy in y: Forecast accuracy

Recipients of the basic and free information, such as weather warnings and forecasts

Recipients of the of customized sector-specific Recipients the basic and free fee-based services and information

hydrology: days % 1-7in80-90%

seasonal water flow

curacy y: Agrometeorology seasonal outlooks:

% 80%

ater crop flowproductivity and harvest dates

information, such as weather warnings and forecasts

The bigger the sizeRecipients of sector circle, the relative of the thelarger customized sector-specific share or value of the commercial hydromet services fee-based services and information

rology utlooks:

ctivity and es

The bigger the size of sector circle, the larger the relative share or value of the commercial hydromet services

117

Western Aral Sea

K a z ak hs t an

Aralkum

Moynak

z y

Nukus

Sarygamysh Lake

a z

Uchkuduk

Urgench Khiva

Zarafshan Am

a ar y uD

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A population exceeding 33 million people makes Uzbekistan the most populous country of Central Asia. Its agriculture and industry are well developed and its economy is diversified. It shares the major rivers of Central Asia – Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Zeravshan – and the Tien Shan and Hissar mountains with its neighbours. Less than 10 per cent of the water resources of these rivers originate in Uzbekistan. The climate is continental, with hot summers and cool winters. Average temperatures in July reach 32°C–37°C, with daily maximums of 43°C–45°C, and extremes up to 47°C–50°C in deserts and

118 0

100 km

Map produced by Zoï Environment Network, September 2019

southern areas. Uzbekistan’s populated areas and economy can be affected by heatwaves in summer, floods and mudflows in spring, and avalanches in winter. The lower Amu Darya River suffers from unreliable water supply, poor water quality and dust storms. This area – Karakalpakstan – is considered most vulnerable to climate impacts. The deserts in the western and central parts of Uzbekistan receive 100 mm of precipitation, while mountains get over 800 mm per year. Annual temperatures are growing at average rates of 0.27°C per decade and the number of hot days is increasing.

Uzbekistan Land cover and features

K a z ak hs t an

k R

Kyr g yz Republic

Chirchiq

rc h

Aydar Lake

A n g re

Angren Almalyk g ar y

Gulistan

a a n

y l l e V a K a ra D ar ya

Andijan

Margilan

Kakand

R a n g e

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Dzhizak

Navoiy

Uzb.

Kattakurgan Zarav

shan

Samarkand Shahrisabz d ar

s a r G i s

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Tajik is t an

Denau

Karshi

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Bukhara

Namangan

r yn

Tashkent

Termez

Af ghanis t an

119

P ak .

Aktumsuk

Western Aral Sea

Karakalpakiya

K a z ak hs t an

Aralkum

Zhaslyk

Moynaq

Nukus

Chimbay

Sarygamysh Lake

Taktakupyr

Kungrad

r a

Takhiatash

Uchkuduk

m Buston

Gurlen

Urganch

Buzaubaj

Khiva

Tyuyamuyun

Zarafshan Am

a ar y uD Dzhangeldy Kyzyl-Ravat

Tur k menis t an

Karakul

Meteorological station

Weather radar *

Agrometeorological and meteorological posts

Avalanche observation

Unmanned automated weather station Stations reporting to WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) Grouped stations due to lack of space in the map Glacier and science stations

120 0

100 km

Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

Annual average temperature -10

20 Â°C

* Weather radar range is approximate and varies per location and type of equipment

Uzbekistan Meteorological monitoring network

K a z ak hs t an

Akbaytal

k R am

Gazalkent

Chimgan

rc h

Yangiyul

Bajmurat

Aydar Lake

Mashikuduk

Syrdarya Zapadny Arnasay

Sentob Nurata

Kattakurgan

R a Jangikishlak n g e Kushrabad Gallyaalar Lalmikor

Dzhizak

Kul

s a r G i s

Margilan

Kakand

Kurgantepa

Kuva

Ferghana

Bekabad

Uzb.

Shakhimardan

ta ys

Akrabat

Sherabad

Tajik is t an

Saryassija

Dehkanabad

e R a n g

Minchukur

Guzar

Chimkurgan

Karshi

Andijan

Samarkand

d ar

Boz

Sarykanda

Shahrisabz K a s h ka

Dalvarzin

a a n Ulugnar

Pap

Bahmal

Pajaryk

Nurabad Mubarek

Jangier

Angren Almalyk g

y l l e V a K a ra D ar ya

Namangan

Dagbit

Baysun Surkh and ary a

Bukhara

Gulistan

Navoiy

Payshanba Zarav sha n

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ar y

N u r a t a Nurata u

Kokaral

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Ayakagitma

Kamchik

r yn

Chirchiq

Sukok Dukant C Tyuyabuguz en A n gr iq

Tashkent

Charvak

Tamdy

Kyr g yz Republic

Olgaing

Pskem

Denau Shurchi

Termez

Af ghanis t an

121

P ak .

Uzbekistan Hydrological monitoring network

Western Aral Sea

K a z ak hs t an

Aralkum

Moynak

z y

Sarygamysh Lake

Nukus

a z

Uchkuduk

Urgench Zarafshan

Khiva

Tur k menis t an

a ar y uD

Aqtash

Z a ra

Kattakurgan

Bulungur

Samarkand

ho ian Esk

Muborak

vs h a n

. an rC

Z a r a v s h a n

Ku m d ar y a

Koson

Chiraqchi

Shahrisabz

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K a s h ka d a r y a ya dar

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Taj.

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Guz ar

g e R a n

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R a n g e

Kitab

Denau

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122

Amu Darya

Af gh an is t an

Surkhan darya

Termez

Kumkurgan

Tur k me ni s t a n

S h e ra b a d

gR an g

Tollimarjon Res.

Ugam

K a z a k hs t an

kem

ksu

Chatkal

Charvak Res.

Kyr g yz Rep ub li c

Chirchiq

chi

K a z akTashkent hs t an Angren

h ir

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Almalyk ya Dar Syr

Tajik is t an

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k R

Kyr g y z Republic

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Map produced by ZoĂŻ Environment Network, September 2019

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Uzbekistan Environmental monitoring network Water monitoring

K a z ak hs t an

Population of major cities

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Modernization of hydrometeorological stations, Tajikistan

6 Towards improved hydromet services The users of hydrometeorological services face an array of increasing meteoÂ rological and hydrological challenges, and hydromet services are responding to the changing needs of users by working to provide the information required for action, and by taking a more service-oriented approach. The core business of hydromets is weather forecasting, and if the weather is a moving target, so too is the rapidly evolving field of forecasting. Modern hydromets process and integrate massive amounts of data from sophisticated ground measurement instruments, satellites, and meteorological radar, and incorporate their findings into their weather reports. Global and regional climate data centres employ cloud computing and prepare numerical forecasts that supplement, but cannot replace, the qualified forecasters whose interpretations of complex information and professional judgment inform their reports.

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As in any field with relentless advancements in technology and knowledge, ongoing professional development is crucial to ongoing success. To keep up with advances in IT, remote sensing and modelling, forecasters need to attend conferences and workshops and get regular training.

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Modernization accomplishments and plans Human resources Before modernization

After modernization For years, the staff of hydromet services collected manual observations, and received little or no professional development training. Recent modernization efforts have included the specialist training at national and international workshops and the publication of manuals for use in the observation networks and specialized services. Training centres provide well-equipped classrooms, and offer on-site and online education and training. Field staff have received training and special clothing.

Observation network Before modernization

After modernization Prior to modernization, the observation networks relied on basic manual devices that were becoming obsolete. Now the networks include automated meteorological and hydrological stations that improve hydrometeo rological observations and strengthen the collection of data related to potential hazards. Other improvements include the restoration of key manual stations and the installation of new monitoring equipment – flow meters, water thermometers and devices for monitoring evaporation. The avalanche service added cross-country vehicles.

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Accuracy of forecasts Before modernization

After modernization The manual, paper-based approach to integrating data into a forecast is giving way to modern methods. A data centre and communication system receives hydrometeorological data from the field and distributes the data to the appropriate departments for processing and analysis. Laboratories house modern calibration equipment and measuring devices. The climate service has new software, and upgraded systems and databases. A new web portal contains products for the general public, economic sectors, and other hydroÂ met users, and for hydromet staff.

Severe weather warnings Before modernization

After modernization With a limited number of stations to provide coverage and a lack of software and prediction products, forecasters had inadequate tools for making accurate and timely severe weather warnings. With modernization, forecasters now have the ability to provide better spatial accuracy and more practical warnings supported by visuals that users can understand. False alarms have decreased, and the warnings are Âbetter integrated into the mass media for wide dissemination.

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Regional internationalcooperation cooperation on weather, water and climate Regional andand international UNFCCC, IPCC, international climate change policy and reporting

Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, Global Environment Facility, other international climate funds

WMO and members: national hydromet services

Development actors: World Bank, Asian Development Bank, other donors

WMO regional centers Moscow and Tashkent

ICAO requirements on aviation meteorology

CIS Council on hydrometeorology

Specialized regional centers: weather forecasting, hydrology, environment Regional exchange with neighbors: Russia, China, Afghanistan

Private sector partnerships

National hydrometeorological services of Central Asia

Areas of cooperation

Observation networks and methods

Innovative technologies

Human resources and skills

Climate services

Forecasting models and products

Early warning systems

Data processing and storage

Climate change assessments and actions

Results of cooperation

Modern, sufficient and better integrated observation networks and skilled staff

More precise, timely, actionable weather forecasts and warnings

National hydromets in the region have a range of opportunities for cooperation with each other, with neighbouring states and with regional and international organizations. Cooperation on the development and use of analytical tools may extend to observation networks and methods,

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Better informed and satisfied users, better use of hydromet information

forecasting models and products, data pro cessing and storage, and climate change assessments. Other areas include human resources and skills, innovative technologies, climate services, and early warning systems.

Growing number of hydromet clients and users, increased income base and tailored to users services

Benefits of hydrometeorological information Benefits of hydrometeorological information Benefits of hydrometeorological information

Social Social

Environment Environment

Long-termormonitoring or Long-term monitoring basic basic indicators of indicators the state of the state of environment of environment

MinimizationMinimization of release of release of toxic substances of toxic substances

Economic Economic Avoidance of Avoidance crop lossesof crop losses from hail or drought from frost, hail or frost, drought

Safety and security of public Safety and security of public

Increased farm production Increased farm production

efficient scheduling More efficientMore scheduling of agricultural activities of agricultural activities Improved information Improved information and data to the and data to the scientific community scientific community

fuel consumption Reduced fuelReduced consumption route planning through routethrough planning

saving and reduced Water savingWater and reduced runoff runoff from fertilizerfrom fertilizer application application resulting in resulting in improved improved water qualitywater quality

Support formajor addressing major Support for addressing global environmental issues global environmental issues

of local ManagementManagement of local environmental quality environmental quality

to the day-to-day Contribution Contribution to the day-to-day comfort, enjoyment and comfort, enjoyment and general convenience of citizens general convenience of citizens

The users of hydrometeorological information include the general public and managers, planners and analysts in environmental, social and economic endeavours. The application of the information results in benefits across this spectrum. Hydromet information is used for environmental indicators and informs a range

Improvedofscheduling of flight Improved scheduling flight arrivals and departures arrivals and departures

Efficientofscheduling Efficient scheduling logistics of logistics business operations and businessand operations

MinimizationMinimization of search andof search and rescue costs, risk reduction rescue costs, risk reduction

of environmental management strategies. The social benefits include public safety, security and comfort, and the contributions to scientific research. The economic benefits extend to Âapplications in such sectors as agriculture, transport and emergency response.

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Summary of hydromet observations and services Summary of hydromet observations and services Atmosphere and upper air observations

sunshine

cloud type and cover

Hazards and special observations

ozone layer, global pollutants

atmospheric profile and phenomena (fog, visibility)

Near surface weather observations monthly hourly daily annual average maximum minimum

glaciers and snow avalanches

snow reserves air temperature flood risk

wind speed, direction

Marine observations

Surface hydrology observations water level and discharge

water phenomena (ice, turbidity)

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rainfall, humidity

water quality

wind, temp

waves

ice cover

Forecasting and climate services hydropower

construction

agriculture

transport

Public safety and environmental quality

Vegetation and soil observations

vegetation phases and crop yield estimates

drought monitoring

notifications of weather changes and extreme temperatures

radiation monitoring

extreme weather warnings

air quality

hailstorm and intense rain warnings

frost risk warnings

soil temperature and moisture content

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Hydromet innovations expected in Central Asia in 2020 and beyond

Numerical weather prediction and cloud computing Data processing NHMS Kazakhstan

Uz Hydromet

Tashkent COSMO a In for m

NHMS Kyrgyzstan

e x c h a ng e

Global and regional weather forecasts

ti o

NHMS Tajikistan

NHMS Uzbekistan

High resolution data

NHMS Turkmenistan

Improved flashflood guidance and flow forecasting

Observations

Validation

FFGS regional center

National hydromet

Flashflood guidance

Government

ons esp dr an

Ear

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a yw

security against cyber attacks.

The specific local occurrence of flash floods makes them difficult to forecast, and they remain a major threat especially in the mountains. Advances in numerical forecasting combined with flash flood guidance systems are beginning to improve the forecasts, and an upgraded version of the system is now available in Central Asia with improved accuracy of flash flood warnings for periods of 3 hours up to 36 hours, and possibly longer.

Extreme weather events

Modelling

Within the next year, enhancements in numerical weather resolution to 6 x 6 km for all of Central Asia and 2 x 2 km for the high mountain areas will improve the spatial accuracy of numerical forecasts in the region. This higher-resolution tool still needs to be tested, but is expected to produce better local forecasting. Internet speed in the region may be too slow for the data transfer needed for numerical forecasting, but the advent of cloud computing will allow hydromets in Central Asia to connect to the data at their own Internet speed. Cloud computing has the additional benefit of providing better

Alliance for Hydromet Development

International development banks

Development agencies

World Meteorological Organization

i Data generation

Data exchange

Systematic Observations Financing Facility

Better systematic observations for better data

Science-based adaptation planning

CO2

Climate-proofing investments

Better climate services for better adaptation and resilience

Greenhouse gas information systems

Atmospheric measurements

Better greenhouse gas emissions information for better mitigation action

Risk information, forecasting capabilities, Integrated warning dissemination and response systems

Better early warning systems for better disaster risk management

2030

Strengthen WMO operational systems

Technical advice by the WMO Country Support

Hydromet Gap regular report

Better investments for better effectiveness

An initiative driven by WMO and the World Bank – the Alliance for Hydromet Development – is an effort to achieve consistency and coordination among hydromet services, and to close the gap between developed and developing countries in their capacity to respond to weather, water and climate risks. Twelve international organizations – the Adaptation Fund, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, Europe-

an Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Global Environment Facility, Green Climate Fund, Islamic Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme, World Bank, World Food Programme and World Meteorological Organization – launched the Alliance for Hydromet Development in December 2019.

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The global outlook WMO service delivery strategy The World Meteorological Organization is imple menting a service delivery strategy designed to assist National Meteorological and Hydrological Services improve their services to the general public and decision makers. The strategy comprises the following six elements: Evaluate user needs and decisions Link service development and delivery to user needs Evaluate and monitor service performance and outcomes Sustain improved service delivery Develop skills needed to sustain service delivery Share best practices and knowledge The underlying idea of the strategy is to move hydromet services toward a more service- oriented culture, and these six elements provide a framework for hydromets to follow in the pursuit of that end.

World Bank approach to modernization The World Bank approach to modernization of hydromet services emphasizes the relationships between the public and private sectors and between service providers and users, and builds on the WMO service delivery strategy. According to the World Bank, effective services must be available and timely, dependable and reliable, useable, useful, credible, responsive and flexible, sustainable, and expandable. The drivers for effective service delivery include a shift toward open data, a greater need for efficiency, social and technological changes, evolving national policies on disaster risk reduction, the need for cost recovery for some services, and new service markets.

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In addition to service delivery systems, the World Bank considers production systems and support systems as part of what it calls a “System of Systems”. Production systems include monitoring and observations, modelling, forecasting, and warnings. Support systems include information and communications technology, quality management, research and development, and capacity-building.

The World Bank rationale for modernizing hydromets starts with the observation that high-income countries have demonstrated the benefits of providing accurate, actionable weather, climate, and hydrological information that mitigates the impacts of extreme weather events by affording authorities the opportunity to take timely steps based on timely warnings. These countries owe their success to investment in public hydromet services and in research and development, and to the encouragement of complementary private services. In response to the increase in meteorological and hydrological hazards, the needs of hydromet users are changing. Hydromet services, in turn, need to respond to these changes, and provide actionable information. In terms of developing and maintaining the human resources necessary to meet these challenges, the World Bank approach relies on its long experience with capacity-building through business development and through the training of hydromet staff, stakeholders, and end users. The World Bank finds that on-the-job training is the most effective approach, and that external training should be used only to develop trainers who can then conduct national training. The national hydromet staffs need training in not only the core disciplines and global weather enterprise skills but also in business practices, social media, and information and communications technology. The adoption of new business models is a particular concern for hydromets that need to modernize rapidly to accommodate new demands for services. Two critical elements in this institutional modernization are a strategic plan that lays out hydromet goals and the means by which to achieve them, and an operational concept. The modernization of infrastructure extends to systems for monitoring and observing, modelling, forecasting, and information and communications technology. This short list of systems disguises a long list of specific needs – from improvements in remote sensing and ground observations to the introduction of communications equipment that meets WMO standards to the rehabilitation and upgrading of offices and facilities.

References Climate change data and trends

Sources: National Communications to the UNFCCC → https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/ transparency-and-reporting/reporting-and-review-under-the-convention/national-communications-and-biennial-update-reports-non-annex-i-parties/national-communication-submissions-from-non-annex-i-parties and North Eurasian Climate Centre → http://seakc.meteoinfo.ru/ climatemonitoring/climatmonitr

Satellite images (maps)

Esri, Digital Globe, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, Geo Eye, USDA FSA, USGS, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP

Annual precipitation and temperature (maps)

Source: WorldClim (→ www.worldclim.org Fick, S.E. and R.J. Hijmans, 2017, 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology); complimented with national climate data

Meteorological and hydrological stations and environmental monitoring points (maps)

Sources: National Hydrometeorological Service of Kazakhstan (http://www.kazhydromet.kz/ru and http://maps.hydromet.kz/), National Hydrometeorological Service of the Kyrgyz Republic (http://meteo.kg/), National Hydrometeorological Service of Tajikistan (http://meteo.tj/), National Hydrometeorological Service of Turkmenistan (http://meteo.gov.tm/tm/), National Hydrometeorological Service of Uzbekistan (https://www.meteo.uz/)

Annual river flow (maps)

Source: Global Runoff Data Center → https://www.bafg.de/GRDC; complimented with national hydrology data

Country chapters are informed by expert interviews, data and maps collected during Zoi country visits and discussions with the central offices of the national hydrometeorological services: Turkmenistan – November 2018, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic – December 2018.

Useful links: Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR) → https://www.gfdrr.org/en

World Bank’s Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Project materials, background and progress reports → https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P164780?lang=en

World Bank, 2019. Weathering the Change: How to Improve Hydromet Services in Developing Countries? World Meteorological Organization, 2014. The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and Its Implementation Plan World Meteorological Organization, 2015. Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services World Meteorological Organization (WMO) → http://www.wmo.int

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC NOAA) → http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov and NOAA weather and atmosphere education resources → https:// www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere-education-resources

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p. 7: Situation room, Ministry of Emergency Situations, Kyrgyz Republic © C. Stuhlberger for the World Bank p. 19: Karshi canal, Uzbekistan © V. Novikov

p. 35: Automated meteorological station, Sangiston, Tajikistan © Tajik Hydromet for the World Bank p. 36: Kaz Hydromet building in Almaty © Z. Gainulina for “Vlast” online magazine p. 37: Checking equipment, Tajikistan © C. Stuhlberger for the World Bank p. 37: Thermometer housing, Turkmenistan © M. Libert

p. 44: Glacier observations in the Pamirs, Tajikistan © M. Mergili (www.mergili.at) and Tajik Hydromet p. 51: Automated river gauge, Yezgand, Tajikistan © Tajik Hydromet for the World Bank p. 51: Forecasters’ room, Tajikistan © C. Stuhlberger for the World Bank

p. 52: Climate records archives, Kyrgyz Republic © C. Stuhlberger for the World Bank p. 53: Installation of new equipment, Tajikistan © Tajik Hydromet for the World Bank

p. 69: Development near the Almaty meteorological station © Z. Gainulina for “Vlast” online magazine p. 73: Oil pump, Kazakhstan © V. Novikov

p. 75: Meteorological station, Almaty © Z. Gainulina for “Vlast” online magazine p. 115: Caspian Sea coastline, Turkmenistan © V. Novikov

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Acknowledgements Preparation and production of this guide involved direct and remote consultations with the staff of national hydrometeorological services of Central Asia and key users of hydrometeo rological and climate information, as well as the review of a broad range of information sources, including World Bank and World Meteorological Organization materials and guidelines. It would not have been possible to gather the wealth of information for the guide without the input of almost 50 contributors. Presentations and other materials from the national meetings and national atlases, WMO and hydromet databases, and other data have been used extensively in the preparation of this guide. The producers thank all contributors and their organizations for providing their time and expertise. In Kazakhstan, the National Hydrometeorological Service (Kaz Hydromet) in Nur-Sultan, its major office in Almaty as well as The Regional Centre on Hydrology participated in consultations and review. In Tajikistan, inputs and comments were provided by the staff of the National Hydrometeorological Service (Tajik Hydromet) and the Committee on Environmental Protection with inputs by the Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Project team (CAHMP TJK). In the Kyrgyz Republic, the National Hydrometeorological Service (Kyrgyz Hydromet) under the Ministry of Emergencies has provided valuable support, comments and

ideas. In Turkmenistan, the National Hydrometeorological Service (Turkmen Hydromet) under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection received the first mission of the atlas production team, showing great hospitality and provided valuable comments and insights. In addition, the UNDP–GEF project, “Supporting climate resilient livelihoods in agricultural communities in drought-prone areas of Turkmenistan”, shared its experience with farmers and other users of hydromet information, and informed the production process. In Uzbekistan, the staff of the National Hydrometeorological Service (Uz Hydromet) has participated in consultations and provided valuable information. In all of the Central Asia countries, the World Bank offices kindly supported country visits and participated in the review. Colleagues from the World Meteorological Organization kindly provided their input and expert advice. The production team benefited from information and maintained cooperation with the Climate mitigation and adaptation programme for the Aral Sea (CAMP4ASB). Matthias Beilstein at Zoï Environment Network worked long and hard on preparation of maps. His work was supported by Vladislav Sibagatullin. Maria Libert, Carolyne Daniel and Alexandra Povarich made the atlas visually appealing and Geoff Hughes aided in a team effort to make the atlas easy to read.

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In todayâ€™s world, weather apps are everywhere and when we glance at our devices and decide if we are going to take an umbrella when we leave the house we may be forgiven for taking this twenty-first century, whiz-bang technology for granted and for thinking that weather information comes from our phones. To be sure, weather information is delivered to our phones, but it comes from the collection of an astonishing array of observations and measurements from ground stations, satellites and other remote sensing equipment and from the processing of the data with sophisticated computers, all of which entails the following of rigorous protocols. And the people following those protocols power the entire enterprise with their knowledge, training and professionalism. This atlas offers insights into the work of the national hydrometeoÂ rological services and the global networks that contribute to the information on our screens. It covers the range of weather, water and climate information and services available, and connects that information and those services to the spectrum of users with their own specific needs. As global warming continues to produce more frequent and more intense extreme weather events, interest in the forecasting of these events may be on the rise, and this atlas may serve as an entry point to understanding the methods and limitations of modern practice. This guide to the hydromet services in Central Asia may serve as both an example of how to communicate weather, water and climate information and as a catalyst for renewing interest in these increasingly important areas and for clarifying the need for climate adaptation strategies.