GLOBAL RESOURCES OUTLOOK
Scenarios
Continuation of historical patterns of resource use and management
Absence of urgent and concerted action
HISTORICAL TRENDS Climate mitigation and removal
Resource efficiency
Landscape and biodiversity protection
Healthy diets and reduced food waste
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY The Towards Sustainability scenario shows that changes in policies and behaviors can achieve decoupling of natural resource use and environmental impacts from economic growth and human wellbeing.
Global GDP
increase by 8%
Global GDP per capita
increase by 25%
~ US$ 233 trillion US$ 216 trillion
increase by 100%
Current
100%
Current
US$ 76.5 trillion HISTORICAL TRENDS
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
Global material extraction HISTORICAL TRENDS
190 billion tonnes over 100% increase
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
143 billion tonnes
25% lower than under Historical Trends
CURRENT
92 billion tonnes
HISTORICAL TRENDS
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
Domestic material consumption per capita HISTORICAL TRENDS
18 tonnes 50% increase
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
14 tonnes
only 17% increase
CURRENT
12 tonnes
The projections are based on the understanding that growth rates in emerging and other developing economies must be balanced by absolute reductions in resource use in developed countries.
Material extraction by resource type (2015-2060) Million tonnes
Biomass
Fossil fuels
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Metal
Non-metallic minerals
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
CURRENT
43.5
32.3
23.1
40.3
7.8
16.1
14.5 8.1
9.2
17.8
93.7
112.3
Global material productivity
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY 2060
HISTORICAL TRENDS 2060
1.14 USD
1.75 USD
per kg of material use
per kg of material use
CURRENT 2015
0.93 USD
43% higher than in Historical Trends
per kg of material use
Global pasture land
Greenhouse gas emissions
70 GT CO e 2
decrease by
43%
90% 4.8 GT CO e
increases by
25%
less than Historical Trends
HISTORICAL TRENDS 2060
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY 2060
HISTORICAL TRENDS
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
increase by
2
Agricultural land
increases by over
30%
Forests and Other habitat Forests reduced by over
9% less
20%
than Historical Trends
HISTORICAL TRENDS
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
10%
Other habitat reduced by
HISTORICAL TRENDS
~ 20 %
increases by
11%
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
13 million km2 of forest loss prevented and 4.5 million km2 restored