Kazakhstan: Climate Facts and Policy by Zoï Environment Network

K A Z A K H S TA N CLIMATE FACTS AND POLICY POLICIES AND PROCESSES

339 MILLION tCO2e 19 TONNES PER CAPITA

Kazakhstan 2050 strategy

Green Economy concept Ecological code with climate provisions Laws and programmes on energy savings, renewables, emissions trading Industrial development, housing modernization and climate mitigation programmes Energy labelling, audits and certification, special fixed tariffs for renewable energy

2020 targets

Pledge to keep GHG emissions in 2020 at 15 per cent below 1990 level Maintain GHG emissions in power sector at 2012 level Increase the share of solar, wind, biogas and small hydro to 3 per cent. Reduce GDP energy intensity by 25 per cent

2030 targets and INDC

Mitigation Base year: 1990 Unconditional 2030 target: 15 per cent economy-wide reduction compared to base year Conditional 2030 target: 25 per cent economy-wide reduction compared to base year Reduce GHG emissions in power sector by 15 per cent compared to the 2012 level Increase share of renewable energy to 30 per cent, including alternative energies 10 per cent Reduce GDP energy intensity by 30 per cent Adaptation priorities Water security, water use efficiency Food security, agricultural growth

1990-2014 GHG inventory of all sectors & gases

17.5

10 508

POPULATION

PER CAPITA GDP

US $

MILLION

99%

OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION FROM FOSSIL FUELS

Established GHG inventory process and cadastre Evolving MRV and GHG emissions modelling systems UNFCCC expert review of GHG inventory Third-sixth national communication to UNFCCC in 2013, as Annex 1 party to Kyoto Protocol Biennial emissions reporting to the UNFCCC since 2014 National Inventory Report submitted to the UNFCCC in 2016

CLIMATE ACTIONS

Sources: 2016 national inventory report submitted to UNFCCC; latest population, energy and economic data from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

Total GHG emissions in 2014 at 20 per cent below 1990 level Growing carbon sequestration by forests and grasslands Countrywide gasification and switch to natural gas

Pioneer in emissions trading since 2013

170 enterprises in power, oil-gas, manufacturing, 150 million tonnes of CO2

32 000 tonnes of CO2 traded in 2014 at EUR 1.5 per tonne of CO2 National allocation plan for GHG emissions quotas approved for 2016-2020 National emissions trading system put on hold as of 2016

Expo-2017 in Astana: Future Energy

Current installed capacity: wind 61 MW, solar 55.5 MW, small hydro 117 MW, biogas 0.8 MW Rapid growth in renewable energy projects

CLIMATE FINANCE US $100 billion investment in greening the energy sector by 2050 Expecting 10 GW of installed capacity of green energy by 2030, and 33 GW by 2050

Climate Investment Funds US $200 million

Renewables, modernizing district heating, waste management, railways

UNDP-GEF

Promoting renewable energy investment NAMA for low carbon urban development

EBRD

US $80 million support to Yereymentau wind project Burnoye solar plant phase II Kulan solar plant (pending approval)

Incentives for renewables and energy savings Subsidies for renewable energy Tax rebates for energy efficiency

Tobo l

ChelyabinskKostanay

Ufa

Ishim

Petropavlovsk

Karagaly (planned)

Kostanay

Expo 2017 AstanaSolar

Aktobe

(planned)

A ral A S ea Z

K Da

Aktau

Aral

Cas

pian

A ral S ea

r ya

pian

Sea

Urganch

more than 5

Mary Tejen

Tehran

Tejen

Tehran

2-5

IRAN

Karakum Canal

Balkhash (under construction) Ili Taldykorgan Ghulja Kapchagay Solar Shelek Dzhungar Gates Balkhash (planned) C H Ch Almaty(planned) Otar u Lake Balkhash

I N A

Issyk-Kul Ili Taldykorgan Ghulja Shymkent im Shokpar K Y R Kapchagay GYZSTAN Tar Solar (under construction) Shelek Naryn Tashkent 0 n C Toxka (planned) C H Almaty Ferghana Otar h u

I N A

Taraz

Burnoe Kujand

Bishkek

Osh

Samarkand

Uchquduq Am uD ary a

Karshi

Naryn Solar park Ferghana Korug Osh

Termiz Qurghonteppa Samarkand Installed capacity: Kujand BukharaRenewable energy installations Am uD ary a

Karshi

Mazar-eDushanbe Sharif

Wind park

Termiz Qurghonteppa

Installed capacity:

Mashad

Mazar-e Sharif

n Toxka Hydropower plant

Gilgit

PAKISTAN

AFGHANISTAN

50 MW -100 MW

Mingora

Hydropower plant

INDIA

Mingora

Less than 50 MW More than 100 MW

200 km

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015

More 100 MW TAthan J I K I STAN Solar park KorugMW 50 MW -100

im Tar 0

and plans Kashgar

AFGHANISTAN

200 km

Issyk-Kul

Dushanbe Tashkent TA J I K I STAN

Wind park

Kuqa

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November Kuqa2015

Bishkek installations and plans A N BukharaRenewable energy Shymkent K Y R G Y Z S T Kashgar

b Murga

2-5 Mashad CO2 emissions from thermal power plants, million tons per year: Ashgabat Qom AtrIRAN ek 1-2 Mary 0.5 more- 1than 5 Thermal power-plant (coal/oil/gas) less than 0.5Sari

b Murga

Thermal power-plant (coal/oil/gas) Sari Fossil fuel energy installations and carbon emissions

Karakum Canal

Balkhash (under Semeyconstruction)Oskemen Ereymentau (under construction)

Burnoe Zhanatas (planned)

Zhanakorgan (under construction)

Energy and emissions

A Z ER B A ĲAN Dashoguz CO2 emissions from thermal power plants, million tons per year: Ashgabat Turkmenbashi A t re k T U R K M E N I S T A N Baku

Taraz

Da Kyzylorda r ya Uchquduq

Fossil fuel energy installations and carbon emissions U Z B E K I S T A N

1-2 0.5 - 1 less than 0.5

Cas

Kuryk (planned)

Turkmenbashi T U R K M E N I S T A N

Lake Zaysan

Shokpar (under construction)

(planned) Zhanakorgan (under construction)

Urganch

Oskemen

Lake Zaysan Dzhungar Gates KaragandaBalkhash (planned) Lake Balkhash

Zhanatas (planned)

Sea

Dashoguz

Barnaul

Semey Ereymentau (under construction) Pavlodar

TAstana A

Kyzylorda Zhezkazgan

UZBEKISTAN

Makhachkala A Z ER B A ĲAN Aktau

Qom

Sarysu

Kuryk (planned) Fort Shevchenko (planned)

S Zhezkazgan Expo 2017

Atyrau

Baku

Aral

Ura Fort Shevchenko (planned)

Astrakhan Makhachkala

Karagaly (planned) Sarysu

Ura Vol ga

Atyrau

Ekibastuz Karaganda

Aktobe

Volgograd Astrakhan

Irt

AstanaSolar Petropavlovsk

Barnaul

Novosibirsk

Pavlodar

Ekibastuz Omsk

Astana

Volgograd

Oral

Yarka nd

Oral Samara

Yarka nd

Ishim

Samara

Tobo l

Irt

ysh

Vol ga

Novosibirsk

Omsk ysh

Chelyabinsk

Ufa

Gilgit

PAKISTAN INDIA

Less than 50 MW

Policies and institutions The Kazakhstan 2050 strategy and the Green Economy concept are guiding Kazakhstan’s transition to a green economy. Launched in 2013, these initiatives take a long-term (until 2050) strategic approach to promoting best available technologies, introducing new financial mechanisms and incentives, improving environmental performance in all key economic sectors and curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Unique among Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan has an ecological code based on comprehensive environmental and climate change legislation. The country introduced this code in 2010, and has updated it frequently since then to reflect regulations and targets for GHG emissions. Kazakhstan is the leading producer of uranium in the world, but has no active nuclear power plants. Responding to the global drops in oil and gas prices and the emergent domestic energy deficit, the country is considering adding nuclear power to its

energy mix. Reflecting the increased importance of energy as a key economic driver, in 2014 Kazakhstan moved climaterelated matters (such as the development of a green economy and the reduction of carbon emissions) from the dissolved Ministry of Environment and Water Resources to the reformed Ministry of Energy. Responsibilities for the water and forestry sectors were assigned to other ministries, including the Ministry of Agriculture. KazAtomProm – the national nuclear company – also contributes to the development of renewable energy. The Kazakhstan-led Green Bridge partnership, agreed at regional ministerial environmental conferences in 2010 and 2011, is intended to support green economic growth throughout Central Asia through international cooperation, support in technology transfer, exchange of knowledge and climate financing.

Samara Oral

Volga

Petropavlovsk

Astana

Kostanay

Aktobe

KAktobe A l

Ura

A Z A ral S ea

A Da

Aral

K r ya

pian

Rivers with intense water use and increased stress from

weather and crop losses

IRAN

Mary

Karakum Canal

Sari

IRAN

b Murga

Caspian Sea: risk of flooding due to sea level fluctuation Mashad and changes in winter ice cover Qom

Tejen

Tehran

Uchquduq

Bukhara Am uD ary a

Am uD ary a

Oskemen

Semey

Altai Oskemen

Semey

Taraz Shymkent

Shu-Talas basin Tashkent

Balkhash i

Taldykorgan

Lake BalkhashAlmaty Ch

Taraz Ferghana Shymkent Kujand

Lake Zaysan

Lake Balkhash

Shu-Talas Ili River basin basin

Kyzylorda

Bukhara b Murga

Tejen

Turkmenbashi T U R K M EAshgabat NISTAN Baku A t re k Major food producing and populated areas: risk of extreme Mary weather and crop losses Rivers with intense Sari water use and increased stress from climaticTehran and hydrological changes Caspian Sea: risk of flooding due to sea level fluctuation Ashgabat Mashad and changes in winter ice cover A t re k Qom food producing and populated Major areas: risk of extreme

Lake Balkhash and Ili River basin

as Tal

Sea Sea pian Cas

ar y Uchquduq a

UZBEKISTAN

A Z ER B A ĲAN Dashoguz Urganch Impacts ofhydrological climate change climatic and changes

as Tal

Cas

Turkmenbashi T U R K M E N I S T A N

Urganch

Barnaul

Lake Zaysan

Zhezkazgan Ch Kyzylorda Lake Balkhash and u

U Z B E K I S T AD N

Dashoguz

Ekibastuz

KaragandaBalkhash

A ral S ea

Makhachkala Aktau A Z ER B A ĲAN

Baku

Aral

Northern Caspian

Aktau

Makhachkala

Zhezkazgan

Northern Caspian

Atyrau

Astrakhan

Sarysu

Atyrau

OAltai b

Ekibastuz Karaganda

Astana

Oral

Sarysu

Ura

Volgograd Astrakhan

Novosibirsk

Pavlodar

Irt

Pavlodar

Volgograd

Omsk

Barnaul

Bishkek

Ili

C H I N A

Issyk-Kul Taldykorgan

Bishkek

Ghulja

Kuqa

im Tar 0C H

KYRGYZSTAN Naryn Almaty Osh

Ghulja

I 200 N Akm n Toxka Kuqa Map Issyk-Kul produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015

im K Y R G Y Z S T Kashgar AN Tar Densely populated and agriculturally important Narynareas with increased Tashkent 0 200 km environmental stress and impacts of climate change n Dushanbe TAprojected J I K I STAN Toxka Karshi Ferghana Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015 Osh Forest- and bush fires Korug Kujand Samarkand

Yarka nd

Chelyabinsk Kostanay

ysh

Ufa

Petropavlovsk

Samarkand Termiz Qurghonteppa

Densely populated and agriculturally important areasKashgar with increased Severe droughtstress impacts projected impacts of climate change environmental Dushanbe and Gilgit TA J I K I STAN Yarka nd

Volga

Ishim

Samara

Irt

Ishim

Tobo l

Novosibirsk

Omsk

Tobo l

Chelyabinsk

ysh

Ufa

Karshi Mazar-e Sharif

Reduction ice cover of glacial lakes outburst floods Forestandofbush fires and risk PAKISTAN AFGHANISTAN Korug Termiz Qurghonteppa

Severe drought impacts

INDIA

Mingora Gilgit

Mazar-e Sharif

Reduction of ice cover and risk of glacial lakes outburst floods PAKISTAN AFGHANISTAN Mingora

INDIA

Kazakhstan scorecard Country’s share of global emissions

National climate policy actors

Country’s emissions per capita General climate action ambition

Policy leadership: Green Economy Council under the President, Ministry of Energy

Mitigation commitment: Emissions reduction

UNFCCC focal point: Ministry of Energy

Decoupling from population growth

GHG inventory and projections: Jasyl Damu

Decoupling from economic growth

Climate technology network coordination: Nazarbaev

Renewable energy prospects

University

Adaptation action

Greenhouse gas emissions and projections for Kazakhstan Million tonnes 400 350

-15%

300

-25%

250 200 150

50 0 -25

Projections 1990

1992 Energy

1994

1996

1998

Industrial processes

2000 Agriculture

2002

2004

Waste

2006

2008

2010

Land use change and forestry

2012

2014

Lower range

2020 2030 Higher range

Projections are based on Kazakhstan’s INDC

100

Climate actions

Climate finance

Kazakhstan is a candidate for Annex 1 membership in the UNFCCC, and since 2009 has held special status as an Annex 1 Party for the purposes of the Kyoto Protocol. In August 2016 it signed (though has not yet ratified) the Paris Agreement. The Kazakh GHG inventory leads Central Asia in terms of quality and completeness, and the country’s emissions modelling uses advanced tools. In 2014, the country published its first biannual update report as part of its special status reporting obligations, and submitted its national inventory report in 2016.

Kazakhstan is expected to receive US$ 200 million from the Clean Technology Fund to modernize its district heating system, improve energy efficiency, and catalyze investments in renewable energy.

Kazakhstan’s GHG emissions reached their highest level in 1990 at 357 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent, and in 2014 were 20 per cent below that level. GHG emissions in the energy sector account for more than 85 per cent of total emissions. Under the Kyoto Protocol the country pledged to limit its emissions to near its 1990 levels. The Kazakhstan 2050 strategy and the Green Economy concept all aim for a countrywide reduction of GHG emissions of 15 per cent by 2020 and 25 per cent by 2050, compared to 1990. The Kazakh INDC reiterates a 15 per cent reduction as an unconditional target, and specifies a conditional target of a 25 per cent reduction using 1990 as the base year. The country also has specific emissions targets for the power sector by 2020 and 2030, and has goals related to energy efficiency. During 2014-2015, Kazakhstan pioneered an emissions trading system (ETS) in the energy sector and on industrial installations emitting more than 20 000 tonnes per year. The ETS – currently on hold until 2018 – covers 150 million tonnes of CO2 from 170 enterprises out of 270 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in the energy and industry sectors, but does not include municipal or household energy consumption or the agriculture, waste and forestry sectors. Kazakhstan’s path to decarbonization contemplates low-carbon energy that includes both renewables and nuclear sources. A target for their share is set at 50 per cent by 2050. By 2020, the total installed capacity of solar power stations in Kazakhstan may reach 75-100 MW, and for wind power may exceed 1 000 MW, with an additional 500-700 MW of small-scale hydropower and biogas capacities. At the same time the rapid growth in domestic energy consumption and the new thermal power stations under construction make the transition from coal to cleaner energy challenging.

The EBRD is financing solar power plants, and a 50 MW wind power plant in Yereymentau, 100 km east of Astana – one of the first large-scale wind energy projects in Kazakhstan. The national nuclear industry invests in wind, geothermal and solar applications, and implements these projects with foreign investors such as the French Atomic Energy and Alternative Energies Commission CEA. National authorities are promoting the idea of energy certificates and energy labelling, together with the development of taxation tools to improve energy efficiency. Small-scale remote users of alternative energy sources with installed capacity up to 5 kWh not connected to the central grid may receive a governmental subsidy covering half of the tariff.

Sources of information for the scorecard Kazakhstan 2050 strategy, Green Economy concept, EXPO- 2017 process, Green Bridge Initiative National climate-related assessments and reports: National inventory report (2016), INDC (2015), Biannual emissions report 2014, Third-sixth national communications to UNFCCC 2013, Climate mitigation programme Zoï expertise, intelligence and interviews with stakeholders in Kazakhstan. This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.

The designations employed and the presentation do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or region or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.