Zenith Global USA Opportunities in plant-based drinks Report 2019

Zenith Global Report

USA Opportunities in Plantbased drinks Report An overview of market trends and innovations within the USA plant-based drinks market.

2019

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Contents Section 1. Plant-based drinks market Analysis 1.1 Plant-based drinks market 1.2 Plant-based drinks variants and packaging 1.3 Plant-based drinks price evolution and comparison with cow milk 1.4 Consumer profile 1.5 Innovations trends within plant-based drinks 1.6 Top players 1.7 Evolution of plant-based drinks variety trend development

1.8 Plant-based drinks market forecast 2. Plant-based drinks product launches 2.1 Brand profiles 3. Definitions, abbreviations and terms

3.1 Channel definitions 3.2 Segment definitions, abbreviations and terms

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Plant-based drinks market analysis USA

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1. USA plant-based drinks market overview 1.1 Plant-based drinks market Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

(M litres)

Evolution of plant-based drinks over the last 5 years and reasons behind its growth/decline Commentary

Total

Retail OHH PCC M litres

Value

2014

2015

(M USD)

Total Retail OHH PCE

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2016

2017

2018

Evolution of channels Commentary

1. USA plant-based drinks market overview 1.2 Plant-based drinks variants and packaging Plant-based drinks variants Plant-based dairy drinks types - % volume share, 2018 20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0% 20.0%

Soy

Nuts

Grain

Pulses and seed

Others

Plant-based dairy drinks types - % value share, 2018 20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0% 20.0%

Soy

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Nuts

Grain

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Pulses and seed

Others

Commentary

1. USA plant-based drinks market overview 1.3 Plant-based drinks price evolution and comparison with cow milk Commentary USD

Plant-based & cow milk retail price evolution

12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2014

2015

2016

Price per litre of plant-based

%

2017

2018

Price per litre of cow milk

Plant-based & cow milk volume evolution

4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0

0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2015

2016

2017

Plant-based

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2018 Cow milk

2019f

1. USA plant-based drinks market overview 1.4 Consumer profile Commentary

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1. USA plant-based drinks market overview 1.5 Top players

2018 Retail volume market share

Commentary

10.0%

10.0% 40.0% 10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

Danone (Silk) Califia farms Rice Dream

10.0%

Blue Diamond (Almond Breeze) Danone (So Delicious) Private label

2017 Retail volume market share 10.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

15.0% 15.0%

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Danone (Silk) Califia farms Rice Dream Others

15.0%

Blue Diamond (Almond Breeze) Danone (So Delicious) Private label

1. USA plant-based drinks market overview 1.6 Innovations trends within plant-based drinks Innovations Commentary

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1. USA plant-based drinks market overview 1.7 Evolution of plant-based drinks variety trend development

Mature

Emerging

Consolidating

Grains

Soya

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Nuts Nuts

Grains Grains

Legume & Seeds

Others Others

1. USA plant-based drinks market overview 1.8 Plant-based drinks market forecast Commentary

Plant-based drink market volume projections 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2018

2019f

2020f 2021f 2022f Volume in million litres

2023f

Cow milk vs plant-based drink growth projections 10.0% 5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

2018

2019f

2020f

2021f

2022f

2023f

5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Plant-based

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Cow milk

2

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Plant-based drinks product launches - USA

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2. Brand profiles Plant-based blends

Example – Company Website:

Product information: Commentary

Launch date: Positioning and channels: Commentary

Pack size and type: Price:

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Definitions, abbreviations and terms

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3. Definitions, abbreviations and terms 3.1 Channel definitions Retail comprises Modern trade, Discounters, Traditional and other: •

Modern Trade - organised retail excluding hard discount but including chains of convenience stores. Examples include Walmart and whole Foods.

•

Discounters - includes both hard and soft discounters. For example, Lidl and Aldi.

•

Traditional/convenience - typically chained retail outlets with extended opening hours, located in residential neighbourhoods, and with a smaller selling space than super/hypermarkets. E.g. 7-Eleven.

•

Other including: -

Kiosks - small outlets generally in streets selling magazines, post-cards, a limited range of drinks

-

Vending (unattended automatic retailing through a machine operated by coins, banknotes, payment cards, other payment methods)

- CTNs (confectionery, tobacco and news) - selling limited beverages.

- Independent grocers - non-chain, independent grocers, generally family concerns.

- Petrol forecourts - petrol filling stations that also sell take-away food, magazines, newspapers, drinks.

- Markets - informal, generally open-air stalls selling food and drinks.

- Other such as government-owned stores and co-ops where relevant.

•

E-commerce/online channels - shopping via the internet where payment is made online through a web platform.

Out Of Home (OOH) - comprises café’s, bars, takeaways, fast food (McDonald’s etc.). HoReCa (Hotels, Restaurants, Catering), institutions (for example, hospitals, schools, government institutions, military).

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3. Definitions, abbreviations and terms 3.2 Segments definitions, abbreviation and terms This report covers trends of plant-based drinks in the USA, including all types of variants commonly used for shelf-stable and refrigerated drinks. In addition, milk consumption is discussed, particularly as it relates to the theme applicable to the report.

•

Grain drinks are made from fermented grain or flour. They can be made from oats, barley, spelt, rice, rye, einkorn wheat or quinoa, (which is a pseudo cereal)

•

Legumes and seed drinks are processed from lupin, pea and peanut, while seed-based drinks from chia, flaxseed, hemp, pumpkin, sesame and sunflower

•

Nuts drinks are made from almonds, cashews, hazelnuts, pistachios and walnuts.

•

Soya drinks are a plant-based drink produced by soaking and grinding soybeans, boiling the mixture, and filtering out remaining particulates. It is a stable emulsion of oil, water, and protein.

•

Others comprises of coconut and potato drinks.

Terms: Generations are discussed within this report, and they are defined as •

World War II: The generation born in 1932 or before. In 2019, members of this generation are aged 87 or older.

•

Swing Generation The generation born between 1933 and 1945. In 2019, members of the swing generation are between the ages of 86 and 74.

•

Baby Boomers The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2019, Baby boomers are between the ages 73 and 55.

•

Generation X The generation born between 1965 and 1981. In 2019, members of Generation X are between the ages 54 and 38.

•

Millennials: The generation born between 1982 and 1995. In 2019, members of Generation X are between the ages 37 and 24.

•

Generation Z: The generation born from 1996 to present. In 2019, members of Generation Z are aged 23 or younger.

Abbreviations: •

PCC: Per capita consumption.

•

PCE: Per capita expenditure

•

lb: A pound by weight

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