Zenith Global UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Zenith Global Report 2020

UK Water Drinks Summary Report

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Zenith Global summary report on UK water drinks March 2020 29th edition

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UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Introduction This is the twenty-ninth Zenith report on the UK water drinks market. As the UK water drinks market continues to grow and evolve, so does our report. This year, we have again produced three reports on the sector in order to provide a complete review of this dynamic market.

• • •

The UK Plain Water Report The UK Water Plus Report The UK Water Drinks Summary Report

As always, our aim is to contact every significant company active in the sector and to produce as complete a picture as possible at a price accessible to any business with a serious commercial interest.

We are particularly grateful for the help we receive from the water drinks companies we profile. The 2020 report contains text, charts and tables which analyse the industry’s leading packaged water companies and track recent developments in the UK market.

These reports represent exceptional coverage of the UK water drinks market and we hope that you find them useful in your business planning. As our research is updated on a regular basis, we always welcome any comments or suggestions about possible improvements.

Robin Bell Senior Consultant Zenith Global

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Contents Executive summary ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Research overview ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3 1

UK water drinks market ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 4

2

UK water drinks companies and brands ----------------------------------------------- 6

3

UK water drinks forecast to 2024 ------------------------------------------------------ 10 3.1 Forecast model 1 - Standard model---------------------------------------------------- 10 3.2 Forecast model 2 - Coronavirus best case ------------------------------------------- 13 3.3 Forecast model 3 - Coronavirus worst case ----------------------------------------- 18

Appendix 1 - Definitions and symbols ------------------------------------------------------- 22 Water definitions------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 Natural mineral water ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 22 Spring water -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 Bottled drinking water ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 Flavoured water --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 Functional water -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 Juicy water ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 Water plus ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23

Distribution channel definitions ---------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Retail ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Supermarkets ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Independent, others --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Door-to-door -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24

Away from home-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Offices ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 HoReCa; pubs and clubs ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Others ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24

Symbols -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25

Š Zenith Global Ltd 2020

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Tables Table 1.1 Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3

UK water drinks market, 2014-2019 -------------------------------------------- 5 Top 25 companies in UK water drinks market, 2018-2019 -------------- 7 Top 25 brands in UK water drinks market, 2018-2019 ------------------- 8 UK water drinks consumption by segment forecast model 1, 20192024f -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 UK water drinks consumption by channel forecast model 2, 20192024f -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 UK water drinks consumption by channel forecast model 3, 20192024f -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19

Figures Figure 1.1 Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3 Figure 3.4 Figure 3.5

Š Zenith Global Ltd 2020

UK water drinks market, 2014-2019 -------------------------------------------- 5 Leading UK water drinks companies, 2019 ----------------------------------- 9 Leading UK water drinks brands, 2019 ----------------------------------------- 9 UK water drinks market forecast model 1, 2014-2024f ----------------- 12 UK water drinks market forecast model 2, 2014-2024f ----------------- 16 Best case retail vs away from home volume market share forecast model 2, 2017-2024f ----------------------------------------------------------------- 17 UK water drinks market forecast model 3, 2014-2024f ----------------- 19 Worst case retail vs away from home volume market share forecast model 3, 2017-2024f ----------------------------------------------------------------- 20

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

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UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020 Executive summary •

Commentary

•

Commentary

•

Commentary

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

•

•

The biggest selling names in the plain water market for 2019 are calculated to be:

Page2 2 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

Top selling company Top selling brand Top sparkling brand Top still brand Top mineral water Top spring water Top own label company producer

% of plain market % of plain market % of plain sparkling % of plain still % of plain mineral % of plain spring % of own label

Top UK producer Top UK produced brand

% of UK output % of UK brands

Top packaged glass company Top packaged plastic company

% of glass sales % of packaged plastic

The biggest selling names in the water plus market for 2019 are calculated to be: Top water plus company Top water plus brand

% of water plus market % of water plus market

Top flavoured water brand Top functional water brand.

Top juicy water brand

% of flavoured water % of functional water % of juicy water

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Research overview

Page2 3 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

•

In compiling its research, Zenith relies on the goodwill and co-operation of companies active in the marketplace. All information is cross-checked with other sources, such as trade associations and suppliers, to ensure as complete a picture as possible. Although we strive to provide data as accurate as possible, some figures presented are Zenith’s estimates.

•

Based on individual producer volumes for the year, market, sector and segment totals are calculated from the ‘bottom up’. At a sector and segment level, adjustments are then made for any double counting of contract and licensed bottling. Estimates for any unauthorised soft drink imports sold through the ‘grey market’ are also included. However, this is more pronounced in categories such as energy drinks rather than packaged water.

•

A complete picture of the UK water drinks market is thus produced through Zenith’s extensive study of the largest importers and bottlers, alongside small to medium sized operators and own label specialists. The market figures presented therefore encompass all aspects of packaged water drinks including: take home, impulse and on-premise/foodservice and a small amount of home delivery water.

•

To this end, a considerable amount of time and effort is spent contacting industry players and striving to analyse the complexities of the UK water drinks arena. We believe Zenith’s coverage of the total UK water drinks market to be without equal and to have attained a consistently high level of accuracy. Zenith would like to express its sincere gratitude to the entire UK water drinks industry for its continued help and assistance during the research process. Our gratitude also extends to UK industry associations for their support, including the BSDA (British Soft Drinks Association) and the NSWA (Natural Source Waters Association, formerly Natural Hydration Council).

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

1

UK water drinks market •

Commentary

•

Commentary

•

Commentary

Page2 4 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Table 1.1 Million litres Sparkling Still

UK water drinks market, 2014-2019 2014 2015 2016 2017

2018

Sparkling % share Still % share Plain Flavoured Functional Juicy Plain % share Flavoured % share Functional % share Juicy % share Plain % change Flavoured % change Functional % change Juicy % change Total market Total market % change Source: Zenith Global

Figure 1.1

UK water drinks market, 2014-19

120

100

Million litres

80

60

40

20

0 2014 Source: Zenith Global

2015

2016 Plain water

2017 Water plus

2018

2019

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UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

2

UK water drinks companies and brands •

Commentary

•

Commentary

•

Commentary

Page2 6 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Table 2.1 Million litres

Top 25 companies in UK water drinks market, 2018-2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 volume % share volume % share

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Top 25 Others Total market Top 5 Top 10 Source: Zenith Global

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UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Table 2.2 Million litres (1)

Top 25 brands in UK water drinks market, 2018-2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 volume % share volume % share

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Top 25 Others Total market Top 5 Top 10 (1) (2)

Branded water volumes only Brands listed include volumes of sub-brands (plain, flavoured, functional and juicy waters)

Source: Zenith Global

Page2 8 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Figure 2.1

Leading UK water drinks companies, 2019

10%

Company 1 10%

50%

10%

Company 2 Company 3 Company 4

10% 10%

Company 5 Others

Total consumption: XX million litres

Figure 2.2

Leading UK water drinks brands, 2019

10% 25%

Brand 1 10%

Brand 2 Brand 3

10%

Brand 4 Brand 5

10%

25% 10%

Total consumption: XX million litres

Next top 5 Others

Page2 9 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

3

UK water drinks forecast to 2024

3.1

Forecast model 1 - Standard model •

Commentary

•

Commentary

•

Commentary

Page210 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

Page211 1 / 0 4 UK water drinks consumption by segment forecast model 1, 2019-2024f / 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2 0 2 0 UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Table 3.1 Million litres Sparkling Still Sparkling % share Still % share Plain Flavoured Functional Juicy Plain % share Flavoured % share Functional % share Juicy % share Plain % change Flavoured % change Functional % change Juicy % change Total market Total market % change Source: Zenith Global

Figure 3.1

UK water drinks market forecast model 1, 2014-2024f

120

100

Million litres

80

60

40

20

0 2014

2015

Source: Zenith Global

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020f

2021f

2022f

2023f

2024f

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

3.2

Forecast model 2 - Coronavirus best case •

Commentary

•

Commentary

•

Commentary

Page212 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

Page213 1 / 0 4 UK water drinks consumption by channel forecast model 2, 2019-2024f / 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2 0 2 0 UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Table 3.2 Million litres Retail Away from home

Retail % share Away from home % share Total market volume Total market volume % change ÂŁ million Total market value Total market value % change Source: Zenith Global

Figure 3.2

2019

2020f

2021f

2022f

2023f

2024f

UK water drinks market forecast model 2, 2014-2024f

120

150

80

100

60

40

50

20

0

0 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Volume Source: Zenith Global

2020f

2021f

Value

2022f

2023f

2024f

Value (ÂŁ million)

Volume (million litres)

100

Page214 1 / 0 4 Best case retail vs away from home volume market share forecast model 2, 2017-2024f/ 2 0 2 0 UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Figure 3.3 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

2017 Source: Zenith Global

2018

2019 Retail

2020f 2021f Away from home

2022f

2023f

2024f

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

3.3

Forecast model 3 - Coronavirus worst case •

Commentary

•

Commentary

•

Commentary

Page215 1 / 0 4 / 2 0 2 0

Page216 1 / 0 4 UK water drinks consumption by channel forecast model 3, 2019-2024f / 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2 0 2 0 UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Table 3.3 Million litres Retail Away from home

Retail % share Away from home % share Total market volume Total market volume % change ÂŁ million Total market value Total market value % change Source: Zenith Global

Figure 3.4

2019

2020f

2021f

2022f

2023f

2024f

UK water drinks market forecast model 3, 2014-2024f

120

150

80

100

60

40

50

20

0

0 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Volume Source: Zenith Global

2020f

2021f

Value

2022f

2023f

2024f

Value (ÂŁ million)

Volume (million litres)

100

Page217 1 / 0 4 Worst case retail vs away from home volume market share forecast model 3, 2017-2024f/ 2 0 2 0 UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Figure 3.5 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

2017 Source: Zenith Global

2018

2019 Retail

2020f 2021f Away from home

2022f

2023f

2024f

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Appendix

Page 18

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Page 19

Appendix 1 - Definitions and symbols Water definitions Natural mineral water The basic requirements of the UK regulations are: •

Must come from a recognised groundwater source. Recognition is granted by local authorities to meet EU standards and requires a lengthy testing process to ensure freedom from pollution and a consistent mineral composition.

•

Must be bottled at source unless the practise was to tanker to the bottling plan on or before 17th July 1980.

•

Cannot undergo treatment except permitted treatment for filtration of particles.

•

Nothing can be added to water except carbon dioxide for carbonation.

•

The water can only be bottled under a single name, described as natural mineral water.

•

The water must meet strict requirements for microbiological and chemical purity.

Spring water The basic requirements of the UK regulations are: •

Must come from a groundwater source.

•

Must be bottled at source (unless the practise was to tanker to the bottling plant on or before 23rd November 1996).

•

In the UK, spring water can currently undergo certain forms of permitted treatment.

•

The water can only be bottled under a single named Spring Water. However, additional Bottled Drinking Waters can be produced from the same source.

•

The water must meet requirements for microbiological and chemical quality.

Bottled drinking water The basic requirements of the UK regulations are: •

‘Bottled drinking water ‘is a legal category of water and should not be confused with the general use of the term ‘bottled water’.

•

Can come from any source - groundwater, surface water (e.g. a lake or river), tap water or other (e.g. glacier, iceberg, rainwater)

•

Need not be bottled at source.

•

Can undergo any form of water treatment.

•

Water from a single source can be bottled under different names.

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Page 20

•

Can be bottled under any description except one that is misleading to consumers. Use of the description natural mineral water, spring water or mineral water is not permitted. Some commonly used descriptions are ‘table water’ and ‘purified water’.

•

The water must meet requirements for microbiological and chemical quality.

•

These definitions are a simple description of the requirements of the UK bottled water regulations. The Legislation section which appears in both the Plain Water and Water Plus reports details the relevant regulations for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and any subsequent amendments.

Flavoured water Sweetened with sugar, sweetener or unsweetened with added fruit essence; sparkling and still natural mineral, spring or bottled drinking water with added flavourings.

Includes: • •

Flavoured unsweetened bottled waters Flavoured bottled waters with added sugar and/or sweetener

Excludes: • • •

‘Schorle’ (sparkling water and fruit juice) and other soft drinks ‘Limonaden’ (water-based, flavoured carbonated soft drinks popular in Germany) Pressé drinks (ready-to-drink cordial drinks)

Functional water Functional waters have added functional ingredients, such as botanicals, vitamins, minerals, oxygen or others. Functional waters can be still or sparkling and can be flavoured or unflavoured. Such waters are marketed as having a functional positioning.

Juicy water Defined as water with added juice, juice content ranges from 5% to 25-30%. However, the key attribute is consumer perception of such products as being water plus juice as opposed to a juice drink. These drinks are perceived by consumers to be closer to flavoured waters than juices/nectars.

Includes: • • •

Volvic Juicy Drench Juicy This Juicy Water

Excludes: • • •

San Pellegrino Aranciata, Limonata etc.

Capri Sun Vimto

Water plus Water plus includes flavoured waters, functional waters and juicy waters as defined above.

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Page 21

Distribution channel definitions Retail Supermarkets •

Multiples and other grocers - Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda, Waitrose, Morrisons, Co-op, Marks & Spencer, Boots, Budgens, Iceland

•

Aldi, Lidl and other discounters

•

Smaller local supermarkets (e.g. Booths, Harry Tuffins)

•

Supermarket forecourts and smaller formats of the major multiples (e.g. Tesco Metro)

Independent, others •

Confectioneries, tobacconists and newsagents (CTNs)

•

Convenience stores (e.g. Londis)

•

Small independent grocers

•

Other forecourts

•

Off licences

•

Other retail stockists/cash & carry

Door-to-door •

Dairy deliveries

•

Direct mail orders

Away from home Offices •

Water supplied in places of work such as offices, factories etc.

HoReCa; pubs and clubs •

HoReCa - hotel, restaurant and cafés

•

Bars, pubs and nightclubs

•

Food service catering channels

•

Vending machines

Others •

All other away from home outlets

UK Water Drinks Summary Report 2020

Symbols ...

Negligible, less than 0.05

AFH

Away from home

e

Estimate

f

Forecast

Foodservice Distribution to on-premise or HoReCa outlets PET

Polyethylene terephthalate

rPET

Recycled polyethylene terephthalate

R

Returnable packaging

SC

Sports cap

VPL

Value per litre

Page 22

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