Paint & Decorating Retailer January 2026

Vol. 68 • Issue 1 • January 2026 • PDRmag.com

Published by the North American Hardware and Paint Association

Channel Roadmap Guide Your Strategic Planning With the 2026 Market Measure Page 20

Finding and Filling Operational Gaps to Promote Growth Page 34

Give Your Applicators and Accessories Department a Refresh Page 50

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2026

Vol. 68 • Issue 1 • January 2026 • PDRmag.com

Published by the North American Hardware and Paint Association

Channel Roadmap Guide Your Strategic Planning With the 2026 Market Measure Page 20

Finding and Filling Operational Gaps to Promote Growth Page 34

Give Your Applicators and Accessories Department a Refresh Page 50

RECOGNIZE EXCELLENCE

Do you know a young retailer who is shaping the future of the independent home improvement industry? Maybe it’s someone you work with—or maybe it’s you!

Passion and dedication to advancing the home improvement industry

Nominate a Retailer That Showcases: Outstanding leadership in their business or community

Innovative contributions to the independent retail channel Submit your nomination by March 29, 2025.

Learn more at YourNHPA.org/yroty.

Learn More

Scan the QR Code to watch the 2025 Young Retailer of the Year Award Ceremony at the IHI Conference.

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COMING IN FEBRUARY

1025 E. 54th St. Indianapolis, Indiana 317-275-9400 NHPA@YourNHPA.org YourNHPA.org COMMUNICATIONS Lindsey Thompson lthompson@YourNHPA.org Editor and Director of Content Development Austin Vance avance@YourNHPA.org Director of Sales & Marketing Jacob Musselman jmusselman@YourNHPA.org News & Digital Editor Annie Dameworth adameworth@YourNHPA.org Content Development Coordinator Autumn Ricketts Lead Graphic Designer Olivia Shroyer Marketing Manager Samantha Mitchell Production & Design Assistant

NHPA EXECUTIVE STAFF Bob Cutter President & CEO

A Digital Roadmap

Dan Tratensek Chief Operating Officer

Next month, Paint & Decorating Retailer will revisit the fundamentals with Digital Marketing 101. Whether you have a full marketing team or it’s just one of many roles handled by a manager or staff member, these insights will help you establish a solid starting point for promoting your business online.

Cassie Reed Marketing & Digital Content Assistant Freda Creech Sales & Production Assistant

ASSOCIATION PROGRAMS 800-772-4424 | NHPA@YourNHPA.org Cody Goeppner cgoeppner@YourNHPA.org Director of Education & Training Jesse Carleton jcarleton@YourNHPA.org Training Manager & Editor Amy Hayes Operations Coordinator—Advanced Education & Training

SALES Jordan Rice 217-808-1641 | jrice@YourNHPA.org Regional Sales Director Renee Changnon 217-621-7363 | rchangnon@YourNHPA.org Senior Business Development Representative—West Coast

CIRCULATION, SUBSCRIPTION & LIST RENTAL INQUIRIES CIRCULATION DIRECTOR Richard Jarrett, 314-432-7511, Fax: 314-432-7665 gcscs8@gmail.com

OUR MISSION

The North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) helps independent home improvement, paint and decorating retailers, regardless of affiliations, become better and more profitable retailers.

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER Paint & Decorating Retailer (ISSN 0011_8910), Copyright © 2025 by the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA), is published four (4) times per year (January, April, July, October) by the North American Hardware and Paint Association, 1025 E 54 St, Indianapolis, IN 46220.

Subscription rates: Hardware Retailing (Payable in advance): U.S. & possessions $50/year.

Canada $75/year. All other countries $110/year.

Single copy $7. The Annual Report issue can be purchased for $30.

Business and Editorial Offices: 1025 E 54 St. Indianapolis, IN 46220 Accounting and Circulation Offices: The North American Hardware and Paint Association, 1025 E 54 St., Indianapolis, IN 46220. Call 317-275-9400 to subscribe.

Periodicals postage is paid at Indianapolis, IN and additional mailing offices.

POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Paint & Decorating Retailer, P.O. Box 16709, St. Louis, MO 63105-1209.

David Gowan Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Business Services Scott Wright Vice President of Content Development & Publisher

NHPA BOARD OF DIRECTORS CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD

Joanne Lawrie, Annapolis Home Hardware Building Centre, Annapolis Royal, Nova Scotia

EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMAN

Ash Ebbo, Clement’s Paint, Austin, Texas

IMMEDIATE PAST CHAIRMAN

Ned Green, Weider’s Paint & Hardware, Rochester, New York

DIRECTORS

Christian Herrick, Randy’s Do it Best Hardware, Jackson, Virginia Michelle Meny, Meny’s True Value, Jasper, Indiana Jeremy Peterson, Family Hardware, Florida Katie Prus, Abbotsford Paint and Decorating, British Columbia, Canada Michael Sacks, FLC Holdings, LaGrange, Texas Emily Wood, Wood’s Ace Hardware, Bolts & Brews

SECRETARY-TREASURER Bob Cutter, NHPA President & CEO

NHPA CANADA EXECUTIVE ASSISTANT Rebekah Doerksen Supply-Build Canada Direct: 204.953.1692 | Cell: 204.990.3536 Toll-Free: 1.800.661.0253 ext. 103 102-226 Osborne St. N. Winnipeg, MB R3C 1V4

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

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Volume 68 | Issue 1 | January 2026 PaintandDecoratingRetailer

PDRMagazine

DEPARTMENTS Editorial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Industry Viewpoint . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Fresh Coat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2026

New Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Newsmakers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

20 COVER STORY

Finish . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

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Starting the Year Strong

OPERATIONS

With insights from industry experts and data highlighting the performance and projections for the home improvement channel, the North American Hardware and Paint Association’s Market Measure Report is your key data resource for 2026.

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Calendar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Mind the Gap Conducting a gap analysis is an essential step for independent retailers, helping them identify priorities, allocate resources effectively and shape strategies that lead to measurable progress.

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INDUSTRY EVENTS

TRAINING

It’s Show Time

Smarter Training for Smarter Teams

Spring market season is just around the corner, and Paint & Decorating Retailer shares best practices for getting the most out of attending spring shows and a preview of the biggest industry events happening this spring.

With a library of 52 microtraining videos, NHPA’s new RetailWise program offers low-effort, high-impact training. For Parry’s owner Gwenn Werner, the videos have provided an effective and efficient way to get customer service training in the hands of her employees.

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HELMETS TO HOME IMPROVEMENT

CATEGORY FOCUS

Military Mindset

Beyond the Brush

After facing a life-changing list of obstacles while serving in the U.S. Marines, Scott Morath uses the toolkit of skills he gained in the military in his leadership role at ALLPRO.

See how one retailer established his store as a go-to destination for all things paint accessories through cross-merchandising and keeping prices competitive yet attainable for customers.

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

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myoldmasters.com | (800) 747-3436 | SCAN QR CODE FOR MORE INFORMATION

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CONNECTIONS

How to Reach Dan dant@YourNHPA.org

Dan Tratensek

F R O M T H E A S S O C I AT I O N

Fortune Favors the Bold

“Any plan for growth in 2026 should include more additions than subtractions, because as our CFO here at NHPA tells us all the time, ‘you just can’t cut your way to prosperity.’”

D I D Y O U R B U S I N E S S G R O W L A S T Y E A R ? I know it is only January, and you’re likely still waiting on the final financial reports to come back from the accountants, but my guess is you have a pretty good yes or no answer to my question.

But in any case, let me take a guess. If you are like the majority of the home improvement industry, your business was likely flat in 2025. Maybe up a bit, maybe down a bit, but few retailers were setting the world on fire over the past 12 months. (If you want a full accounting of how the industry performed last year and a peek into how we think it will perform this year, turn to our Market Measure Report starting on Page 20.)

I say “few” because there were definitely some outliers last year who managed to grow operations despite a market filled with headwinds.

As we start 2026, I think another question you might want to consider is, “how did these other businesses manage to grow in a stagnant market?” Which leads to the question, “how do I do that?”

Hopefully, I can shed a little light on both those questions by telling you some of the common traits we saw from retailers who posted strong growth last year.

First, most of the growth we saw in 2025 did not come “organically,” by simply selling more to existing customers. Instead, most organizations who expanded their top-line sales did so through addition—by acquiring new customers, opening new locations and adding new product lines and niches.

While this might not seem too surprising, in many ways it goes against a lot of folks’ business instincts. When the markets are tight, people tend to buckle down and not want to spend money, hoping for the dark clouds to clear.

But whether it is the stock market or a home improvement retailing business, so often it is the winners who buck their natural instincts, who invest while others are selling.

We don’t see the market changing too much this year, which means, if you want to grow, you are going to have to tighten up your shoelaces and buck against some of those conservative instincts.

Any plan for growth in 2026 should include more additions than subtractions, because as our CFO here at NHPA tells us all the time, “you just can’t cut your way to prosperity.”

Hopefully, that answers your question of, “how do I do that?”

It isn’t easy. It takes some thoughtful planning, the willingness to lean into advice from partners and some good old-fashioned business bravery. So, instead of sitting around hoping for growth this year, are you going to be brave?

Remember, fortune favors the bold.

Dan M. Tratensek Chief Operating Officer

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PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

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built to perform

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CONNECTIONS

How to Reach Lindsey lthompson@YourNHPA.org

Lindsey Thompson

FROM THE EDITOR

Change Is Coming

“The value proposition you receive from Paint & Decorating Retailer—timely, high-quality and comprehensive content—is here to stay.”

HAPPY NEW YEAR! With the calendar pages switching to a New Year, many people are looking to make positive changes in their lives by setting New Year’s resolutions. I used to set New Year’s resolutions each year, but got so frustrated with myself for breaking them that I decided instead to choose a word to focus on throughout the year.

Change is hard for many of us, myself included.

Falling into predictable patterns provides comfort and safety and creates calm in chaos. Knowing what to expect soothes anxious nerves. Avoiding change protects against getting hurt, feeling stupid and losing control over the things around us. Or so I used to think.

The reality is, change is inevitable and being reluctant to embrace change or even attempting to avoid it forever is fruitless and can cause more harm than good. While I’m not great at it yet, I’ve been working on being more open to change. One way I’ve been better at embracing change is by understanding the why behind the change.

Going into 2026, the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) is embracing a number of important changes that I’m really excited about. In 2026, we’ll publish four print issues of Paint & Decorating Retailer in January, April, July and October. The other seven issues in February, March, May, June, August, September and November will be digital-only.

So what is the “why” behind our changes? The quarterly print issues will be strategically focused, providing best practices for owners and company executives on financial health and profitability, strategic direction and competitive position, operational efficiency, risk management and more. The remaining two digital issues each quarter will be more tactically focused, aimed at managers and sales staff and providing a look at specific operational areas, including marketing, technology, inventory management, procurement, sales and more.

The print issues will allow us to expand on our content pieces, providing additional insights and information we aren’t able to fit into a single issue. The digital-only issues will provide the space for even more content and offer a platform for us to explore offering video, audio, links and other digital means to connect with readers.

Our mission—to help you be better and more profitable—isn’t changing, and the value proposition you receive from Paint & Decorating Retailer—high-quality, timely and comprehensive content—is here to stay. We are excited to offer all this in new and exciting ways.

Here’s to a New Year and to embracing what’s next.

Lindsey Thompson Editor and Director of Content Development

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RESOURCES

Experts in the Field

Connect one-on-one with trusted industry experts to tackle your most pressing business challenges through NHPA Strategic Consulting. Learn more at YourNHPA.org/consulting.

O PE R AT I O N S

Meet Jeremy Jeremy Melnick brings deep expertise in accounting, lease negotiations and business valuation, helping retailers make informed financial and operational decisions that drive growth. Jeremy is the former COO of JC Licht, overseeing 60 locations, and the previous owner of Gordon’s Ace, a 7-location retail chain. He has been recognized as an NHPA Young Retailer of the Year (2006) and as an NHPA Top Gun (2016).

CONNECT LinkedIn Jeremy Melnick Email Jmelnick@ljbadv.com

The Commerce of Color

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magine combining a paint and decorating (P&D) store with a hardware store—it sounds ideal on paper, but the reality is far more complex. I spent 25 years as an owner and partner of a chain of Ace Hardware stores in Chicago and nearly four years on the executive team of one of the largest independently owned Benjamin Moore paint companies in the country. The paint company bought my family’s hardware chain with the strategy of adding a paint store within the hardware store. My job was to oversee hardware and the new paint strategy. Coming from the hardware side, I thought the transition to the paint world would be smooth. It wasn’t. While I don’t claim to be an expert, my experience in both industries revealed four major differences between hardware and paint: Culture: Selling hardware is very transactional with an operational system based on processes and procedures. Selling paint to the professional is based on building relationships.

Hardware is friendly, helpful and convenient but paint stores are based on knowing the customer’s needs beyond business, including their families, kids’ names, favorite sports, meals, drinks and more. Hardware thrives on DIY customers and paint stores thrive on the professional painter. The biggest challenge to overcome is the fact that a professional painter does not like to buy paint at the same counter as the DIY customer.

Price: In a hardware store, the bin tag or price tag is the price at which the product is sold. There are always exceptions with coupons, promos and B2B special pricing, but for the most part, the price is the price. In a paint store, the price is always in question, and the bin tag or price tag means nothing. It is the starting point of negotiations or discounts. The price is based on relationships, volume of purchases or a particular job the painter just earned.

Prices and margins are always a topic in a paint store because the market moves in real time.

Therefore, this is a skill set required of every paint associate.

Product: To keep it simple, the depth of quantities and breadth of product mix for both liquid paint, sundries and applicators are completely different between the two formats. There is some overlap but the focus on the professional compared to the DIY results in different needs.

Perspective: In a paint store, liquid paint, sundries and applicators are at least 90% of the store’s sales. In a hardware store, the paint department generates around 10% of the store’s overall sales. For this reason, the importance of the color wall (chip rack or color center) differs between paint and hardware. Everyone knows the sale of paint starts with color. In paint stores, selling color is like selling a grill. Color leads to larger paint sales, so associates are trained to help a customer pick color and sheen. In the hardware world, the color wall is more of a self-serve area.

Associates don’t really engage with the customer until the paint is ready to be mixed.

It could be argued that my perspective is unique to my chain of hardware stores but based on the average volume of liquid paint sold in a hardware store compared to the average volume sold in a paint store, the difference is like night and day. Ultimately, while the idea of merging paint and hardware may seem efficient, the operational and cultural realities require a nuanced approach. I fully support the strategy but understanding these differences is key to making such a strategy successful.

Jeremy Melnick Consultant LJB Advisors

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PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

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OPERATIONS

Makeover Motivations

See the types of information DIY customers search for before starting a project at PDRmag.com/diy-intentions.

Brush On Happiness R

enovating or refreshing a home not only brings new functionality for homeowners—it brings a sense of joy. According to the How Homeowners Are Planning to Refresh Their Spaces study conducted by CertaPro Painters, 87% of participants say the idea of a freshly painted room makes them happy.

CertaPro Painters’ study revealed the two areas of the home that are most likely to be refreshed with paint.

60% of participants said they plan to paint a bedroom or living room

44% of participants plan to repaint their home’s exterior

The study also found that paint will be a key component in several home projects respondents are looking to complete.

75% of participants anticipate painting a high-impact area of a home, such as accent walls or trim

42% of participants said they anticipate painting kitchen cabinets

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PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

AD VANCED

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OUTREACH

Retailer Recommendations Send an email to editorial@YourNHPA.org telling us about the products your customers love and why they are a hit in your business.

HAND SANDER ALLWAY TOOLS

allwaytools.com The Allway Spring-Loaded Hand Sander features a rugged, lightweight plastic body with wing-nut clamps for fast, secure changes and a 9¼-by 3¼-inch pad that works with most die-cut sanding sheets and screens.

ORBIT SANDER FESTOOL

festoolusa.com The ETSC 2 125 Basic from Festool is a cordless random orbit sander with an integrated LED light ring for spot-on surface inspection and a low-profile design for precise control. It runs on 18 V batteries, features a brushless motor with adjustable speed and comes with a protector and dust bag for clean, efficient sanding.

SPRAY BOOTH PAINTLINE

paintline.com The PaintLine PJSB is a walk-in, open-faced spray booth featuring a collapsible aluminum frame and a disposable, 5-sided clear plastic liner that protects the floor, ceiling and three sides from overspray. It sets up in about 15 minutes without tools and packs into a single carry bag weighing about 45 pounds.

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PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

CAULK OATEY

oatey.com The Hercules High-Temp Red Silicone Sealant from Oatey is a one-component, 100% RTV acetoxy silicone sealant designed for high-heat applications. It forms a flexible, durable and waterproof seal on wood, glass, metal, porcelain, ceramic, painted surfaces, plastics and rubber.

SCAFFOLD WERNER CO.

wernerco.com The Werner NSRS-72T is a steel rolling scaffold, featuring a 6-foot platform with a trap door for easy access. It supports up to 1,000 pounds and includes locking casters for mobility and stability.

The platform height adjusts in 2-inch increments, and the scaffold sections can stack for compact storage when the casters are removed.

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

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POLYURETHANE COATING MINWAX

minwax.com The Minwax Super Fast-Drying Polyurethane for Floors is a clear, oil-based finish made to protect hardwood floors. It can dry in three to four hours and can be recoated in 12 hours without sanding. The formula includes an anti-settling agent to keep the sheen consistent and reduce stirring.

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PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

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PAINTER’S KNIFE DEWALT

dewalt.com The DEWALT 9-in-1 Drywall Painter’s Knife combines a straight scraper, convex and concave curved scrapers, gouger, roller cleaner, can and bottle openers, nail puller, screwdriver and hammer end into a single hardened carbon steel tool with a solvent-resistant nylon handle built for all-day use.

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

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CERAMIC TILE MARBLE SYSTEMS

marblesystems.com The Black Polished Marble Tile from Marble Systems is a 12-inch by 24-inch polished marble tile, ⅜-inch thick. Each tile covers 2 square feet and weighs about 6.61 pounds per square foot.

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SAVE THE DATE.

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EXHIBITOR SUMMIT MARCH 30 EXHIBIT HALL MARCH 31 – APRIL 2 NHS Concept to Commerce is the premier event connecting retailers, manufacturers, wholesalers, and distributors with inventors, private label partners, and global factories, streamlining product discovery, supplier sourcing, and speed to market.

Find products, source suppliers, and build brands — smarter, faster, and more profitably.

LEARN MORE AT NHS26.COM/NHPA-RSVP

S P O N S O R E D

C O N T E N T

Generations of Innovation The Wooster Brush Company Celebrates 175 Years of Excellence in the Independent Channel

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Weathering a dynamic home improvement industry and changing manufacturing landscape for the last 175 years, The Wooster Brush Company has updated processes and products along the way. But one thing hasn’t changed: the heart of Wooster Brush and its commitment to the customers and employees who make it successful.

Adam Foss founded what was then Wooster Brush Works in 1851 at the age of 29, after he bought a crate at an unclaimed freight auction in Cincinnati containing hog bristles. With the help of his brother, he used those

bristles to make and sell the first Wooster paintbrushes door-to-door in Ohio. From those first primitive paintbrushes to the current innovative offerings, quality has always remained No. 1 for the company.

“We will never sacrifice quality for efficiency. If we can’t do it more efficiently at the same or better quality, we won’t do it,” says The Wooster Brush Company president Ben Maibach. “We improve and adapt products over time to adjust to the industry and customer needs, but within those changes, we want each product to offer the same high-quality performance every single time.”

A History of Excellence 1851

The Wooster Brush Company founded

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1937

Wooster invents the angle paintbrush

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

1941

During World War II, Wooster uses synthetic filament to provide nylon brushes to the U.S. military

1964

Wooster introduces synthetic fabrics for roller covers

While products have been crucial to the company’s bottom line, it’s Wooster’s people—employees and customers—who have truly driven growth and success, sustained in a strong company culture. The Wooster Brush Company’s culture is established in the concept of “do the right thing.”

“It might cost us a nickel here, or more than a nickel there, but we know that if we do the right thing over time, it will be good for our employees, it’ll be good for our customers and good for everyone who is associated with us,” Maibach says.

When asked about what’s next, Maibach’s simple answer is, “More of the same.”

“To some, that might sound negative, but this isn’t an ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ scenario. We are not 175 years old because we make brushes a certain way

or make perfect decisions in all cases,” Maibach says.

“We are 175 years old because our focus has been, and will continue to be, people. At the top of that list of people are our employees and their families. For 175 years, this has been the true glue that has held our company together and allowed us to thrive.”

Maibach believes that many independent retailers have a similar story, and he and his company are proud to serve the independent channel.

“They are people who work both on and in their business,” he says. “If we continue to put our people first, they will continue to do what they’ve always done—innovate, improve processes and take pride in what we’ve accomplished, yet never be satisfied that we are ‘there.’ Our culture, together with our quality is what is behind us and what is in front of us.”

The Wooster Brush Company’s 175-year legacy is founded in the company’s commitment to its people—customers and employees—and a passion to serve the independent channel with innovative products.

1999

Wooster unveils the Shortcut, a short-handled paintbrush

2019

Wooster launches a redesigned logo and product packaging that boldly embraces red—the company’s primary color

2024

Wooster launches GripTech MAX, an innovative handle technology featuring a rubberized soft-grip texture extending up and around the handle

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

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2026

Looking Back, Moving Forward Dig Into the NHPA 2026 Market Measure Report

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s you dive into this year’s Market Measure Report, things might look a bit different than they have in the past, particularly when you browse the size of market numbers and market breakdown.

The numbers themselves aren’t radically different from what the North American Hardware and DAN TRATENSEK Paint Association (NHPA) has published in the past, but we have revised our estimates on the makeup of the industry in terms of store counts, unit breakdown and sales contribution.

The reasoning behind these changes is pretty simple—the industry is changing rapidly.

We have said it before in this report and in our presentations that the

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speed of change the industry has seen over the last five years has been nearly impossible to keep up with.

The models we built 20 years ago to determine size of market, unit counts and contribution simply couldn’t keep pace with the rapid evolution of the home improvement retail landscape.

Add to that the emergence of online players and the increasing sales of hardlines and home improvement through general merchandise retailers, and it’s easy to see how quickly old methodology can become outdated.

To account for that, we have revised our industry unit counts.

Instead of trying to force retailers into one of three buckets (hardware stores, home centers, lumberyards), we have built new, more inclusive buckets. Now, our breakdown looks at independent hardware, paint, farm supply and allied retailers in

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

one category, and then has separate categories for independent home centers, independent lumber and pro dealers and national home improvement chains.

On the sales contribution side, we have taken the overall market sales estimates and put them through a similar process. Instead of cramming those numbers into the three categories we have used in the past, we took a deeper look at contribution by type and added a separate category for general retail to the mix.

We think all of these changes give a much more accurate picture of the industry’s makeup and make it easier to understand how sales of products flow through the channel.

No model is perfect, and we will continue to revise this model as we move forward, but we are confident that the new presentation of the data will be much more useful for everyone who interacts with the data.

INSIDE THE REPORT From the Association ........................................................................... 20 Industry Breakdown ..............................................................................22 Financial Profiles ......................................................................................25 Cost of Doing Business Study ........................................................ 26 Home Improvement Research Institute................................. 28 Independent Retailer Index ............................................................ 30 ALLPRO ...........................................................................................................32 Hardlines Distribution Alliance ......................................................33

Ups and Downs Average Out to Stagnant Growth

It’s not a cop out, but since the home improvement industry was upended by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is little about industry performance that has been easy to predict.

Yes, the pandemic is now edging into six years ago, but the ripples of the pandemic and the “pandemic adjacent” impacts still working their way through the global economy continue to drive uncertainty, particularly in the home improvement space.

After three years of rapid expansion, the home improvement industry entered a massive cool-down period at the start of 2024 that showed the industry posting its first year-over-year sales declines in more than a decade.

So, as 2025 began, NHPA was anticipating a return to modest growth for the industry somewhere in the mid-2% range for the year. And while there are some positive numbers being reported, when you strip out inflation and look at organic growth, the industry is still sitting on the launch pad, awaiting lift off.

Industry performance in the first half of 2025 was essentially flat, with NHPA reporting 0% growth through June and U.S. Census data estimating a slight 0.5% dip during this period.

Key performance indicators showed customer transactions down 0.4% while average ticket rose 0.2%, signaling softer foot traffic but resilient spending per visit. Major chains mirrored those trends: Home Depot posted small gains

year over year, while Lowe’s hovered between flat and slightly negative.

Outside of sales growth, we are still seeing businesses try to cope with the post-pandemic operational challenges that are impacting net operating profits.

From 2020 to 2022, hardware stores, home centers and LBM dealers enjoyed double-digit increases in top-line sales, but they also posted some of the highestever net operating profits. And similar to how sales have cooled sharply in the last two years, profitability has also normalized: hardware stores’ profit before taxes peaked above 9% during the pandemic but has since settled to 4.7%—still above pre-2020 norms but well below recent highs.

Retailers are responding by concentrating investments in core categories including paint and sundries (48%), lawn and garden (43%) and hardware and fasteners (38%).

Many plan more aggressive inventory strategies in 2026 as they anticipate improving demand.

Because we saw some incremental improvement in the third quarter and favorable weather patterns emerging in Q4, NHPA’s forecasts for the industry in 2025 point to “slightly up” year-over-year performance. Once again, when you try to mitigate inflation’s impact on sales increases and look at organic growth, we feel the year will end slightly positive, with growth of just below 1% (0.89%).

This malaise is being driven by a number of factors that seem unfortunately persistent: consumer sentiment, rising costs of living, elevated interest rates and potential tariff-driven

price increases still creating headwinds for channel growth. On the positive side, as we head into 2026, a cooling inflationary environment and added interest rate relief could help stimulate discretionary project spending.

Because of these potential positives, outlook for the industry strengthens in 2026, when both NHPA and the Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) expect conditions to improve.

NHPA projects 2.4% sales growth if weather patterns remain favorable.

HIRI’s projections are somewhat more optimistic, estimating 3.8% total market growth, with the consumer segment expanding 4.3% and the professional segment up 2.9%. Over the following three years, HIRI anticipates a return to long-term normalized growth of roughly 3.5% annually and NHPA’s outlook is slightly more guarded, anticipating growth of approximately 2.7%.

Macroeconomic indicators seem to support the cautious optimism. S&P Global expects U.S. GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Inflation is easing, CPI rose only 0.2% in July, though core inflation remains above 3%. Employment continues to soften, with July’s 73,000 job gain falling below expectations and unemployment edging up to 4.2%.

Taken together, the data signals an industry emerging from a period of correction and preparing for slow but steady improvement over the longer term—driven by macroeconomic stabilization, gradual increases in consumer confidence and renewed investment at the store level.

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

21

INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN

2025

2023-2028

2023-2028

Home Improvement Sales by Month

Sales by Store Type

Outlets

(in billions)

(in billions)

January February March

$32.9 $31.5 $39.8

April

$45.0

May

$46.8

June

$43.9

July

$43.2

August

2024

$40.4

October

—

$60.7

Independent HI*

18,780

Home Centers

$36.8

Home Centers

4,640

LBM/PRO

$86.8

LBM/PRO

5,675

Chain

$285.0

Chain

10,890

General Retail

$56.8

TOTAL

TOTAL

2025

$61.6

Home Centers

$37.0

January

0.95%

February

-6.13%

March

3.48%

April

1.15%

May June July

-2.82%

2027

August

-5.35%

September

0.81%

TOTAL

October

—

YTD

-0.89%

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

$530.6

2026

18,760

Home Centers

4,610

LBM/PRO

5,625

Home Centers

$38.2

Chain

LBM/PRO

$90.4

TOTAL

Chain

$292.8

Independent HI*

18,730

General Retail

$59.2

Home Centers

4,595

$543.3

2027

10,900

39,895

LBM/PRO

5,610

Independent HI*

$63.8

Chain

Home Centers

$39.8

TOTAL

LBM/PRO

$94.4

Independent HI*

18,710

Chain

$302.2

Home Centers

4,575

LBM/PRO

5,595

$60.5

2028

$560.7

10,900

39,835

Chain

10,880

Independent HI*

$66.9

TOTAL

Home Centers

$41.6

Independent HI*

18,685

LBM/PRO

$95.8

Home Centers

4,545

Chain

$312.2

2029

$63.3

$70.3

Home Centers

$40.2

LBM/PRO

$98.9

Chain

$325.4

General Retail

$65.8

$600.6

Independent HI*

3.0%

Home Centers

1.8%

LBM/PRO

2.6%

Chain

2.7%

General Retail

3.0%

2.7%

Compound Annual Growth Rate 2024-2029

39,760

LBM/PRO

5,575

Chain

10,860

TOTAL

$579.8

Independent HI*

TOTAL

22

39,955

Independent HI*

$62.7

TOTAL

Compound Annual Growth Rate 2024-2029

$58.1

Independent HI*

TOTAL

2029

5,650 10,900

$88.5

General Retail

-1.39%

LBM/PRO

$285.4

TOTAL

1.22%

4,630

Chain

General Retail

2028

18,775

Home Centers

LBM/PRO

TOTAL

Sales Growth 2024 vs. 2025

2025

39,985

Independent HI*

Chain

TOTAL

2026

2024

$526.1

Independent HI*

General Retail

$40.3

September

Independent HI*

39,665

Independent HI*

-0.5%

Home Centers

-2.0%

LBM/PRO

-1.8%

Chain

-0.3%

TOTAL

Sources: U.S. Department of Census, Monthly Retail Sales Report NAICS 444 and NSA and NHPA calculations *Includes independent hardware, paint, farm supply and allied retailers

-0.8%

INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN

LEGEND

Sales

U.S. Home Improvement Industry Sales

YOY Growth

North American Hardware and Paint Association Projections

Compound Annual Growth 2024-2029 = 2.7%

700

IN USD BILLIONS

600 500 400

$526.1

$530.6

$543.3

-3.4%

0.9%

2.4%

2025

2026

$560.7

$579.8

$600.6

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

2027

2028

2029

300 200 100 0 2024

Home Improvement Product Sales Performance Home Improvement Research Institute/IHS/Current Prices

Compound Annual Growth 2024-2029 = 3.7%

700 600

IN USD BILLIONS

500 400

$573.2

$587.4

$609.7

3.6%

2.5%

3.8%

2024

2025

2026

$633.0 3.8%

$660.1

$688.0

4.3%

4.2%

2028

2029

300 200 100 0 2027

Home Improvement Retail Sales U.S. Department of Census Monthly Retail Sales Report NAICS 444/NSA

Compound Annual Growth 2019-2024 = 4.9%

600

IN USD BILLIONS

500 400

$477.8

300

$384.5

$425.6

200

1.9%

10.7%

12.3%

$514.5 7.7%

$495.2 -3.8%

$488.5 -1.4%

100 0 2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

23

INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN

Top Chains: Individual Performance 2024 Sales (in billions)

Stores at End of FY2024

Stores in 2025 (as of Q3 2025)

The Home Depot

$159.5

2,347

2,356

Lowe’s

$83.6

1,748

1,756

Menards Inc.

$13.2

341*

341

Sherwin-Williams

$23.1

4,773≠

4,834≠

Tractor Supply Co.

$14.9

2,296

2,364

Atlanta

Mooresville, North Carolina

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Cleveland, Ohio

Brentwood, Tennessee

≠ Paint Stores Group in U.S. and Canada stores only *Sources: Company reports and NHPA research

Market Share Profile Top Chains: Industry Share Sales

No. of Stores

(as % of total industry)

(as % of total industry)

2020

50.7%

15.6%

2021

51.1%

2022

Top Chains: Combined Performance Net Sales

(at the end of FY)

2020

$210.2

9,379

18.0%

2021

$251.9

9,475

53.7%

29.5%

2022

$304.2

10,992

2023

53.3%

30.7%

2023

$290.2

11,243

2024

55.9%

28.8%

2024

$294.3

11,505

Source: NHPA calculations Top Chains include The Home Depot, Lowe’s, Menards, Sherwin-Williams and Tractor Supply Co.

24

No. of Stores

(in billions)

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

FINANCIAL PROFILES

2025 Financial Profiles of Leading Publicly Held Chains Home Depot

Lowe’s

Sherwin-Williams

Number of Stores (at end of FY2024)

2,347

1,748

4,773≠

Distribution Centers

500

120*

130-plus

103,749

112,000

—

Total Sales

$159.5 billion

$83.6 billion

$23.09 billion

Total Asset Investment

$96.1 billion

$43.1 billion

$23.63 billion

Total Inventory

$23.5 billion

$17.4 billion

$2.28 billion

Sales Per Square Foot

$655

$428

—

Inventory Turnover

4.8x

3.3x

5.15x

Net Sales to Inventory

13.9x

20.5x

9.9x

Total Sales Per Employee

$339,289

$309,630

$360,781

Average Size of Transaction

$89.31

$103.37

—

Gross Margin Return on Inventory

240.0%

162.5%

484.8%

Net Sales

100%

100%

100%

Cost of Goods Sold

66.6%

66.6%

51.5%

Gross Margin

33.4%

33.3%

48.5%

Total Operating Expenses

19.9%

12.5%

32.1%

Net Income (Before Taxes)

12.1%

10.9%

14.9%

Cash

1.7%

4%

1.1%

Receivables

5.1%

1.1%

10.1%

Inventory

24.2%

40.3%

9.6%

2%

1.9%

2.1%

Fixed Assets

67.0%

52.7%

77.1%

Total Assets

100%

100%

100%

Current Liabilities

29.8%

43.5%

28.8%

Long-Term Liabilities

63.3%

89.4%

54.1%

Shareholder Equity

6.9%

-33.0%

17.1%

Total Liabilities and Equity

100%

100%

100%

Average Size of Selling Area (sq. ft.)

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Other

Source: Company annual reports ≠ Paint Stores Group in U.S. and Canada stores only *Includes regional distribution centers (RDCs), flatbed distribution centers (FDCs), import distribution centers (IDCs), bulk distribution centers (BDCs), cross-dock terminals (XDTs) and Fulfillment Centers (FCs)

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

25

COST OF DOING BUSINESS

Staying On Par Highlights From the 2025 Cost of Doing Business Study

T

he 2025 Cost of Doing Business Study presents the North American Hardware and Paint Association’s (NHPA) annual financial and operational profile of independent hardware stores, home centers, lumber and building materials (LBM) outlets and paint and decorating outlets.

This study assesses the financial performance of home improvement retailers who graciously submitted confidential financial reports for fiscal year 2024 to NHPA. The study presents composite income statements and balance sheets plus averages for key financial performance ratios.

The data is segmented for hardware stores, home centers, LBM outlets and paint and decorating outlets.

In each segment, data is presented for the typical store, for high-profit stores, for single-unit and multiple-unit companies and for sales volume categories. In addition, there is a five-year historical trend for typical stores in each segment, including paint.

Retailers can use this data to measure their own performance against industry averages. The data develops benchmarks retailers can use to establish financial plans to improve profitability.

Methodology

The annual Cost of Doing Business Study is made possible through the cooperation of hardware store, home center, LBM outlet and paint and decorating outlet owners and managers throughout the U.S. who provide detailed financial and operational information on their individual companies.

26

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

Questionnaires were mailed to a sampling of hardware stores, home centers, LBM outlets and paint and decorating outlets in the U.S. to collect detailed financial and operational information for 2024.

The analysis in this report is the result of extensive review by NHPA. All individual company responses are completely confidential.

Most of the figures in this report are medians. The median for a particular calculation is the middle number of all values reported when arranged from lowest to highest.

The median represents the typical company’s results and is not influenced by extremely high or low reports.

To determine high-profit stores, all participating companies were ranked based on operating profits. The high-profit companies in each segment are those that make up the top 25%. The figures reported for each of the high-profit segments represent the median for that group.

While reviewing the numbers on the following pages, it is extremely important to note that each year, this report contains figures from a different sample group of stores.

That means overall figures have the potential to vary widely from year to year based on the respondent group of stores participating each year. We use year-to-year comparisons to illustrate general trends over time, not to draw specific year-over-year conclusions.

In this year’s study, 1,082 independent home improvement stores participated, which represents a 1.3% decrease from the prior year, but is the fifth highest since the study began.

To purchase the 2025 Cost of Doing Business Study, visit YourNHPA.org/CODB.

COST OF DOING BUSINESS

Median Sales Per Customer Typical

Key Business Indicators

High-Profit

Typical

$300

50%

$250

40%

39.8%

High-Profit

39.8%

$237

$200

30%

$187

$186

24.4%

$187

25.4%

20%

$150

$125 $106 $100

$106

$109 $109

$108

10%

-0.8%

0%

$0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Owners’ Salary (0.4%) is the lowest since the paint segment became part of the study.

Comp sales were down more than any other segment at 2.22%.

Employee headcount is up 2, the highest level since 2020.

Gross Margin After Rebate

Total Payroll Expenses

1.4%

Profit Before Taxes

Key Performance Differences at a Glance

Paint comp sales were down for the second year in a row at 2.2%, which was the largest decline of any of the segments.

While Customer Count (19,852) was up significantly, unfortunately, Sales per Customer ($108) was at its lowest level since 2020, which led to the decline.

Cost of Goods Sold of 63.6% was the highest in five years which resulted in Gross Margin After Rebate being 39.8%, which was also a five year low. Meanwhile, Total Payroll (24.4%) dropped for the second year in a row but as we’ve seen with every other segment, Owners’ Salary is at an all time low of 0.4%.

With Occupancy Costs reaching 7.8%, this led to a negative Profit Before Taxes of 0.8%, the lowest since paint was added as a segment.

Equally concerning as the negative impact on the income statement, Cash on Hand (0.3%) was an all-time low and Debt to Equity (7.5) is off the charts and an alltime high. Again, the paint segment’s lack of participation could have a substantial bearing on the results.

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

27

HOME IMPROVEMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

2026 Home Improvement Outlook: A Year of Rebound and Realignment

By Dave King, Executive Director of The Home Improvement Research Institute

A

fter a period of muted growth across 2024 and 2025, 2026 is shaping up to be a growth year for the home improvement industry. With several key economic and behavioral drivers aligning, retailers, manufacturers, and service providers can prepare for renewed momentum.

28

A Turn in the Housing Cycle Modestly declining mortgage rates are expected to increase existing home inventory and boost housing turnover, a trigger for home improvement activity. As homes change hands, demand

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

for both necessary repairs and personalization projects will climb.

Many homeowners are also sitting on historically high levels of home equity, which they’re more likely to tap into as borrowing becomes more affordable and the “lock-in” effect persists.

HOME IMPROVEMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Spending Power Shifts

Dave King leads the Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) as executive director, a role he assumed in 2022 after belonging to HIRI as a member and subsequently serving on HIRI’s Board. He brings more than 25 years of experience in research, strategy and advanced analytics, with a dedicated focus on the home improvement market since 2013. HIRI, founded in 1981 as a cooperative of six manufacturers and retailers, has grown into the leading nonprofit research organization serving many of the industry’s largest brands. Members receive approximately $1 million of proprietary research annually, with roughly 50 deliverables that track contractor and homeowner behavior, forecast category dynamics and translate insights into practical guidance for product, pricing and go-to-market decisions.

The days of pandemic-fueled cash cushions are largely behind us. In 2026, growth will stem from wage gains (though this is under threat) and wealth accumulation. With real disposable income forecasted to rise 3.3%, homeowners are expected to cautiously return to project spending, particularly those in the top 20% of income earners, who continue to account for roughly half of all home improvement spend.

Category performance will vary considerably, and nuances matter.

DIY and emergency-driven spending will remain strong, while pro-led segments will see slower momentum due to labor challenges and cost pressures. That said, over half of contractors still anticipate revenue growth, reflecting resilience even amid tighter competition.

“2026 will be defined by homeowners re-engaging with projects they’ve put off, not because of sudden confidence, but because waiting any longer no longer makes sense,” says Dave King, executive director of HIRI. “With increased access to financing and more homes changing hands, the industry should prepare for a lift, especially among high-income households and strategic remodels.”

The Cost Question While tariffs are expected to continue inflating the cost of building materials in 2026, only about one-third to

one-half of that inflation is currently being passed on to consumers. That gap may shrink in the year ahead, with suppliers absorbing less of the burden. Higher prices will contribute to greater overall dollar volume, though they may also lead to more deliberate purchasing behavior.

Looking Ahead After two slower years, the industry is entering 2026 with pent-up demand and conditions primed for a rebound under threat. Stakeholders who stay agile and customer-focused will be best positioned to capture that demand.

Stay Ahead With HIRI In a dynamic market shaped by economic shifts, consumer behavior and evolving channel preferences, access to accurate, forward-looking data is essential. HIRI members gain exclusive access to proprietary forecasts, in-depth homeowner and contractor studies, product category tracking and macroeconomic indicators that impact every corner of the home improvement industry.

Whether you’re a manufacturer, retailer, distributor or service provider, HIRI delivers timely insights that help you make smarter business decisions, identify growth opportunities and understand your customers more deeply.

Join hundreds of industry leaders who rely on HIRI to stay informed, competitive, and ready for what’s next. Learn more at HIRI.org.

“After two slower years, the industry is entering 2026 with pent-up demand and conditions primed for a rebound under threat. Stakeholders who stay agile and customer-focused will be best positioned to capture that demand.”

—Dave King, HIRI

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

29

INDEPENDENT RETAILER INDEX

A Measure of Success

L

ooking at how fellow independent home improvement operations are performing throughout the year gives retailers in the channel the data to make improvements to their operations.

Since 2022, the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) has partnered with The Farnsworth Group to produce the Independent Retailer Index, which tracks key performance metrics quarterly.

Every quarter, the index asks independent home improvement retailers to share year-over-year changes in: • Transaction size and count • Inventory investment • Cost of goods

• Profit margin dollars • Future operational investments The most recent Independent Retailer Index released in Q4 2025, shares some insight on how retailers are performing amid economic uncertainty.

According to the index, which fielded responses from 57 different companies, representing hundreds of independent stores across the U.S., 57% of respondents reported increased sales growth year over year, up 29% from Q3 2024 and continuing the upward trend from 2023.

“The third quarter was a small bright spot in an otherwise mediocre year for independent retailers,” says

ACCESS THE INDEX Be sure you’re on the list to receive the newest data from the Independent Retailer Index quarterly. Head over to YourNHPA.org/research/retailer-index to subscribe today.

30

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

Dan Tratensek, NHPA chief operating officer. “The majority of our respondents indicated that sales were up year over year during the quarter, on average, about 2%. However, when you factor that 73% of our respondents were reporting increases in cost of goods, a fair bit of this positive momentum is likely due to rising prices.

A stronger indicator of potential market momentum might be found in the second straight quarter, where we are registering an increase in transaction count from 2024.

If dealers can continue to drive more transactions, it could be one key to breaking out of the malaise the industry has been in.”

INDEPENDENT RETAILER INDEX

STAFF/EMPLOYEES

Investment Plans for the Next 12 Months Top Responses Additional Training

Raises and Bonuses

Adding Staff

Leadership Development

79%

64%

57%

36%

TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS

Investment Plans for the Next 12 Months Top Responses Digital Marketing

Web/E-Commerce

Point-of-Sale System

44%

40%

28%

Store Communications System

Electronic Shelf Labels

None of These

16%

8%

16%

Anticipated Budgeted Revenue in 2026 Around 40% of retailers reported they are planning to increase their budgeted revenue for 2026 on a same-store basis compared to 2025. The average margin change anticipated is an 8.3% increase, suggesting confidence in next year’s performance.

PERCENT CHANGE (MEAN)

ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN BUDGET REVENUE

8.3

40% Increase

10% Decrease Q3 2025 50% Stay about the same

Q3 2025

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

31

WHOLESALER UPDATES

A Conversation With Michael Beaudoin From ALLPRO What are some of the biggest challenges you feel independent retailers faced this past year?

There was flattening demand that created a super competitive environment where the only way to grow would be either to diversify your business or steal market share from someone else, which usually came at a cost. The flattening demand worked in tandem with the issue of understanding your cost of goods due to numerous price increases that came in many different fashions: tariff surcharges, select items going up significantly and overall price increases. In many instances, it would change from month to month depending on the political situation.

MICHAEL BEAUDOIN

Executive Vice President

What were some of the biggest opportunities for independent retailers you saw develop this past year?

For many independents looking to grow into new markets, there were several retailers (in and out of the group) looking to sell their business.

We had several members sell the business to other members, as well as a few cases where members were purchased by outside entities. With sales being flat this year, there were opportunities to get better deals for larger purchases. Suppliers were hungry to grow sales, and they were much more receptive to opportunities than in prior years.

What do you see as the challenges and opportunities in the coming year?

There is an opportunity to have a more stable business environment pertaining to cost of goods, which will help focus attention on growing business. There is also the opportunity to grow market share with several national chains announcing significant price increases.

When there is a significant change in cost, it opens the door for contractions to evaluate new options. Some of the challenges will be balancing the desire to focus on running the business, which is important when sales

32

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

are flat, and having rising costs of doing business to switching gears to going on the offense and winning new business.

How would you recommend retailers budget for 2026?

ALLPRO is budgeting a modest 3% gain for 2026. This factors in a slightly better business environment, and the hope for better weather and members working hard to grow their business.

What were some of the specific highlights from your company in 2025?

The highlight from 2025 was our Fall Show in Dublin, Ireland. Despite the challenges of the year, we had over 900 attendees join us in Ireland, which was one of the biggest events in Ireland (per a government official).

It had a big impact on the attendees due to the unique experience that will hopefully recharge batteries for next year.

What are you focusing on in 2026?

We are going to focus on growth in 2026 at all levels from membership, distribution sales, technology, show attendance and overall being a more impactful group for our stakeholders. We are also moving our offices in the first quarter next year for the first time in two decades, which will be challenging but exciting.

How are you encouraging growth in 2026 and beyond?

Our plan is to work with the suppliers and start the year off with great promotions for the spring buying period along with the spring show deals. This will hopefully jump start the year off in a positive way for all.

WHOLESALER UPDATES

A Conversation With Shari Kalbach From HDA What are some of the biggest challenges you feel independent retailers faced this past year?

What were some of the specific highlights from your company in 2025?

Some of the main challenges independent retailers faced in 2025 were navigating price increases and volatile tariff policies. These fluctuations made it difficult to adjust pricing while keeping an eye on rising inflation rates. In addition, inflation and increased costs of doing business made it difficult to retain staff and invest in training and advancement.

In addition to continuing to enhance the existing financial resources available to our group, we searched for a strategic acquisition that would create opportunities for growth and broaden collaboration within the independent channel.

With that goal in mind, we completed the agreement in November 2025 that unites HDA with North American Tool Suppliers (NATS), a buying group that specializes in the automotive category and compliments the hardware and farm members we serve.

SHARI KALBACH President

What were some of the biggest opportunities for independent retailers you saw develop this past year?

Independent retailers are in unique positions to respond to market changes quickly. Therefore, there are so many opportunities for retailers to invest in and emphasize local niche categories and products. They also have the ability to offer unique or in-demand services that differentiate their store from big box competition.

What do you see as the challenges and opportunities in the coming year?

If lending rates continue on a downward trend, upward pressure on the housing market will create opportunities in both new construction and DIY home projects and remodeling. We remain optimistic that repair and maintenance demands will remain steady as some homeowners choose to tackle urgent projects on their own.

What are you focusing on in 2026?

In 2026, we are looking forward to integrating the merger with NATS and dynamically responding to the needs of our members, vendor partners and independent retailers.

How are you encouraging growth in 2026 and beyond?

The merger with NATS presents us with several opportunities to boost growth including streamlined collaboration, combined conferences and events and access to a broader range of resources and programs.

We are optimistic that with these resources, we can position the HDA network to quickly respond to market fluctuations, implement technology and programs that increase efficiency and pursue manufacturer partners that allow them and their retailer customers to grow and evolve.

How would you recommend retailers budget for 2026?

Retailers might look beyond static annual budgets and instead focus on flexible models where spending can be adjusted depending on multiple criteria including demand, ROI, costs and personnel. In a market with persistently high costs, investing in areas that directly impact margins and increase efficiency can be helpful.

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

33

Measuring Up At O-Gee Paint Co. in Miami, Florida, owner Peggy Sue Wingard compares her operation to industry averages to find spots for improvement.

34 PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

RE

SEARCH

From Gaps to Gains How Strategic Gap Analyses Fuel Sustainable Growth

I

BY LINDSEY THOMPSON

n life, comparison is the thief of joy, but when it comes to business, comparison is a key component to evaluate progress and gauge success. In the independent home improvement industry, running a gap analysis is one of those tasks high-performing retailers tackle on a regular basis, and a crucial task to see blind spots and points of improvement.

To aid retailers in the process of conducting gap analyses, the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) annually conducts the Cost of Doing Business Study, which provides detailed financial information from hardware stores, home centers, lumber and building materials (LBM) outlets and paint and decorating outlets in the U.S. In each segment, data is presented for typical stores and high-profit stores, single-unit and multiple-unit companies and for sales volume categories. In addition, there is a five-year historical trend for typical stores in each segment.

January 2026 | PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER

35

O-Gee Paint Co. owner Peggy Sue Wingard (right) looks at the NHPA Cost of Doing Business Study each year to find areas in her operation that don’t measure up to fellow retailers in the industry.

“The Cost of Doing Business Study allows retailers to see direct results between their income statement and balance sheet versus the rest of the industry. They can use the ratios included in the study to guide a plan for revenue growth and to help cut expenses.”

—Dave Gowan, NHPA chief financial officer

36

PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

For over 100 years, independent home improvement retailers have used the Cost of Doing Business Study to benchmark their business against industry averages, identify ways to reduce costs and increase profits, uncover hidden growth opportunities and plan for long-term financial success.

“The Cost of Doing Business Study allows retailers to see direct results between their income statement and balance sheet versus the rest of the industry,” says Dave Gowan, NHPA chief financial officer. “They can use the ratios included in the study to guide a plan for revenue growth and to help cut expenses.”

The Metrics That Matter

If someone asked Peggy Sue Wingard, owner of O-Gee Paint Co. in Miami, Florida, how her business is performing, she could easily paint a detailed picture of the company’s strengths and areas they are working on improving thanks to NHPA’s Cost of Doing Business Study. Wingard has been participating in the study for over a decade and appreciates how the study equips her with a better understanding of how her operation is performing.

“The Cost of Doing Business Study is important for me to see where my company is compared to others in the industry,” Wingard says. “The timeframe for completing the survey in late spring is perfect because I have the time then to think about the business metrics to complete the survey.”

When the study is released each fall, Wingard says she takes a close look at how her store is performing compared to other paint stores and chooses a few key performance indicators (KPIs) to focus on. Those KPIs include sales, sales per customer, customer count and profit percentages.

“I’m looking to be sure that I am in the running against other paint stores,” Wingard says. “Over the years, it seems you need an average gross margin of 36 to 38% to make a profit for paint dealers.”

Wingard also takes a close look at labor and benefits, as health insurance, 401(k) expenses and payroll account for a large portion of the operation’s expenses.

“I want to make sure I am doing my best for the team and the store,” she says.

Like so many other retailers during the COVID-19 pandemic, Wingard struggled to acquire products and purchased duplicate items from multiple vendors to stock the shelves. This past year, that purchasing strategy led to lower inventory turns and higher inventory cost, which Wingard has been addressing. Wingard’s spending on advertising was ranking lower based on the study, so she has also made efforts to increase spending on advertising.

“I try to tackle more of the pain points and low-hanging fruit first,” Wingard says. “Last year, I showed higher in accounts receivable collection days, so we have started emailing out statements.”

Bringing her employees on board is also key to making sure the changes she implements actually lead to improvements in the O-Gee Paint’s numbers. To align frontline employees with the new strategies, Wingard says she first tried to share the numbers with the team, but they didn’t resonate.

“I have read several business books and many say to share the numbers with the team, but I have tried that and all I get is a deer in the headlights look,” Wingard says. “Instead, I let them know we are looking to increase sundry sales or reduce inventory and create fun incentive challenges, such as SPIFFs on discontinued products and challenges for line item add-ons.”

A Closer Look Review some of the data high points from the 2025 NHPA Cost of Doing Business Study.

Paint Outlet Highlights Owners’ Salary (0.4%) is the lowest since the paint segment became part of the study Comp Sales were down more than any other segment at 2.22% Employee Headcount is up +2, the highest level since 2020

Hot Topics Highlights E-Commerce and Delivery: Average percentage of sales online across all segments was 2% and the median was 1% Inventory and Loss Prevention: Shrink expense as a percent of sales across all segments was an average of 1.7% and median of 1% Staff and Wages: Employee Turnover across all segments was at an average of 28.4% and median of 27%

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Show-Ready Strategy Prepare for the 2026 Spring Market Season BY

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ith the uncertainties of 2025 in the rearview, independent paint retailers are heading into 2026 looking for any ways to face the potential headwinds the new year may bring. One way retailers can start the year

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PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

THO M P S O N

strong is by attending spring markets to take advantage of deals and special pricing terms and find new products and niches to differentiate their operations.

Prepare for your spring market season with the show previews below.

ALLPRO What started as a small idea turned into a huge reality when ALLPRO invited its members across the pond for the Fall 2025 Show in Dublin, Ireland.

“It is not often that our group can not only impact our industry, but also another country as we did in Ireland,” says ALLPRO executive vice president Mike Beaudoin. “We’ve had three hard, long years, so there was no better time to get away and celebrate together.”

Coming off the success of the Fall event in Ireland, ALLPRO is hosting its Spring 2026 Show at the Rosen Shingle Creek in Orlando from March 11-16, 2026.

For Jen Pratt, general manager of Boone Paint & Interiors Inc. in Boone, North Carolina, the ALLPRO shows are a chance to connect with fellow retailers and build on her industry knowledge.

“I always love seeing people that I may exchange emails and phone calls with but not get to see in person very often,” Pratt says.

“You build such a good working rapport with fellow ALLPRO members and vendors, so it is always nice to put a face with a name.”

Seeing what products are new and exciting on the show floor that she can bring back to her customers is also a highlight.

“The experience and knowledge that is housed under the roof in that showroom always amazes me. I am always able to learn something new and take that information back and apply it to our stores,” Pratt says. “I always find the ALLPRO events to be well-rounded, informative with the classes and fun. Plus the food and rooms are always on point.”

Brandon Donahue, owner of Westerly Paints in Westerly, Rhode Island, is looking forward to connecting with his ALLPRO friends, learning about new products in the industry and taking advantage of the great show buys.

“I always appreciate the amount of fun events they pack into the show, and I always leave with memories and—usually hilarious or embarrassing—stories that will last a lifetime,” Donahue says.

“The experience and knowledge that is housed under the roof in that showroom always amazes me. I am always able to learn something new and take that information back and apply it to our store.”

—Jen Pratt, Boone Paint & Interiors Inc.

ALLPRO buying shows bring together retailers from across the globe for deals, networking and a chance to celebrate recent successes.

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Lancaster

Coming together in Orlando, Florida, on Feb. 6-7, the Lancaster Spring Road Show will feature exclusive pricing and deals for retailers. Lancaster’s Buying Shows will allow retailers to meet face to face with over 100 exhibitors, including seven new vendors, and see new and exciting products hitting the market, allowing them to prepare for the busy summer season.

In order to help attendees maximize their time while in Orlando, Lancaster has rolled out a new schedule that includes an earlier start and earlier finish. On Friday, Feb. 6, the show floor opens at

9:30 a.m. and runs until 5:30 and on Saturday, Feb. 7, the show floor is open from 8 a.m. to noon.

Deals will include delayed shipping options and extended payment terms to further expand the value offered to retailers. Attendees will have a chance to win over $60,000 in prizes during the show, take advantage of cash spiffs and get a first look at new products and services at the Innovate to Elevate seminar.

Hosted at the Renaissance Orlando, the show will also boast networking and fun for attendees with free Sea World experiences and family-friendly live entertainment.

Discounts, deals and plenty of time for fun and networking draw in Lancaster retailers each year for the annual buying show.

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Reimagined for 2026, NHS Concept to Commerce will connect global manufacturers, retailers, associations and media.

NHS Reimagined: NHS Concept to Commerce Debuts in 2026

For 80 years, the National Hardware Show (NHS) has brought together the home improvement industry and served as the premier trade event for the industry, connecting global manufacturers, retailers, associations and media to showcase innovations and discuss industry trends.

NHS has seen a number of evolutions over the years as it has continually worked to meet the needs of a dynamic home improvement industry. Paint & Decorating Retailer sat down with Joelle Cohn, VIP attendee manager, and Hector Morfin-Chong, event director, to learn more about the new and reimagined NHS. Paint & Decorating Retailer (PDR): Tell us about the latest iteration of NHS Concept to Commerce and how it will meet the current needs of the home improvement industry.

Joelle Cohn (JC): We’re excited that this year, the event has evolved into NHS Concept to Commerce. We listened to our exhibitor and attendee feedback, and our new show will reflect that. We know seeing new products is one of the main reasons retailers come to NHS, and that certainly will be the case in 2026, along with offering even more.

Hector Morfin-Chong (HMC): NHS will continue to be the place for innovation. That has been the centerpiece of the whole show. But now we’re evolving to reflect the real way products come to life in today’s market. It’s no longer just about what’s already produced and ready to buy—it’s about what’s being imagined, developed and will be launched in the future.

PDR: Walk us through the Show Floor. What’s new with the layout? How will the layout help attendees get the most out of their time at NHS Concept to Commerce?

HMC: This year, we will essentially have two show floors. One side of the show floor will be a brand pavilion and the other

side will include the sourcing side of the show. The brand pavilion will be an exclusive section for curated brands and will include an exclusive attendee area with the VIP lounge actually on the show floor this year.

We’re focusing on efficiency; attendee feedback was very strong about this. Attendees will be able to shop between 20 to 40 countries in one stop in Vegas. We are also encouraging retailers to bring their entire team, and we’re giving them meeting room space so they can hold meetings in private to discuss business they might not necessarily want to discuss on the show floor. NHS Concept to Commerce will be a great opportunity for operations to bring a number of team members.

PDR: What does NHS Concept to Commerce offer to independent retailers?

JC: For independent retailers, NHS Concept to Commerce offers a unique way to walk the show floor and find new and innovative products they won’t see at other shows. This allows them to bring in something new and different to their retail location that they won’t find elsewhere.

HMC: NHS Concept to Commerce gives independents a competitive advantage over other retailers in the neighborhood.

Retailers are looking for ways to differentiate, and I think Concept to Commerce will be a great opportunity for them to set themselves apart.

PDR: What are you each most excited about for NHS Concept to Commerce?

JC: We’ve listened to our attendees and exhibitors on what they are looking for, and I think we’ve really hit some of those pain points of the industry no one else is serving currently. I’m excited to see what people think about the newly evolved NHS. HMC: We know that retailers and brands are demanding more uniqueness, more control and faster innovation, and that creates a lot of pressure for them, but it also creates great opportunity. We’re designing this event to help them meet those challenges and be able to succeed in the new market.

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Right on Time At Parry’s, employees utilize NHPA’s RetailWise microtraining videos to learn during the times most convenient for them.

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Painting a Smarter Future With AI Training NHPA’s New RetailWise Features Microtraining Videos to Deliver Low-Effort, High-Impact Results BY

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s it continually strives to make independent home improvement retailers better and more profitable, the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) is leaning into technology to bring efficient and time-saving training to the channel.

The new RetailWise program delivers fast, high-impact two-minute training videos developed with artificial intelligence, offering retailers a smarter way to build essential

T HO M P S O N

skills. Designed to strengthen the frontline capabilities of independent hardware, paint and lumber retailers.

Built for use in team huddles, during shift meetings and throughout the onboarding process, this series will help improve performance, culture and consistency—without disrupting store operations.

Designed for today’s fast-paced retail environment, RetailWise delivers 52 professionally scripted video lessons.

Training That Speaks Your Team’s Language

RetailWise training is now available in English, Spanish and French-Canadian. Sign up today at YourNHPA.org/retailwise.

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Learn Your Way The entire RetailWise video library from NHPA is available through NHPA’s learning platforms with 100% device accessibility—watch from mobile, tablet or desktop.

WATCH

Scan the QR Code to preview RetailWise microtraining lessons in action.

SIGN UP

Scan the QR Code to sign up for RetailWise AI-powered microtraining.

44 PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

“Two minutes may seem short, but when that time is intentional and focused, it becomes incredibly powerful. These micro-lessons help retailers strengthen their teams without pulling them off the salesfloor,” says Cody Goeppner, NHPA director of education and training.

“Independent retailers need training that moves at the speed of their stores. RetailWise was designed to deliver meaningful development in the moments when teams actually have the time—right before a shift, during a huddle or even between customers.”

Expanding the reach of the program and meeting employees where they are, the videos are available in English, Spanish and French-Canadian.

“Offering RetailWise in English, Spanish and French-Canadian ensures training is accessible to entire teams—not just a few individuals,” Goeppner says. “When everyone can learn in their preferred language, the whole operation wins.”

RetailWise training categories include customer experience and sales techniques; leadership and people development; operational excellence; merchandising and inventory; marketing and local promotion; safety and risk management; retail tech simplified; store culture and team engagement.

“Training isn’t just about skills, it’s about culture,” Goeppner says. “RetailWise helps reinforce what great customer service looks like, how teams communicate and how employees show up for each other. That consistency builds stronger stores.”

Training in Action

A second-generation family-owned store, Parry’s in Hamilton, New York, is continually growing to meet the needs of its DIY and professional customers.

Owner Gwenn Werner added the RetailWise program to the operation’s training offerings in late 2025 after seeing RetailWise advertised in NHPA emails.

“I subscribed immediately,” Werner says. “Since we already utilize other NHPA training programs, this felt like a natural extension of our current training resources.”

For Werner, the short-form videos are especially valuable because they work well when the team has limited time and because the bite-sized format leads to better retention.

RetailWise was designed to deliver meaningful development in the moments when teams actually have the time—right before a shift, during a huddle or even between customers.”

Cody Goeppner Director of Education and Training, North American Hardware and Paint Association

“Each employee learns differently,” Werner explains.

“These quick videos let us train whenever we have a few spare minutes, and our employees retain far more from short, focused lessons.”

Werner says she has been using videos in all of the program’s eight categories.

“The selection provides a nice assortment of content for both our hourly employees and our managers,” she says.

“I particularly appreciate the customer experience and sales techniques categories, as they serve as great reinforcement for what we already teach in the store.”

So far, Parry’s employees have been watching the videos independently on their own time, and Werner has received positive feedback from employees, who have appreciated that the videos are relevant, short and to the point.

“Ultimately, our main goal is to maintain the reputation of having the best employees in town, and RetailWise is another valuable tool to help us achieve that,” Werner says.

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MISSION DRIVEN Scott Morath Brings a Military Mindset to the Independent Channel BY

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fter facing a life-changing list of obstacles and challenges while serving in the U.S. Marine Corps, Scott Morath now uses that toolkit of skills in his leadership role today in the independent channel.

Morath’s military journey began when the Marines sparked his interest while he was searching for next steps after high school and learned his cousin had enlisted.

46 PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

DA M E S WO RTH

“The Marines sounded like a fun option, so I went to the recruiter and told him I wanted to enlist,” he says.

Morath served for eight years in the U.S. Marine Corps, first as a rifleman at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, where he was deployed throughout the Mediterranean.

While deployed, he participated in Operation Sharp Edge, a noncombatant evacuation of the American Embassy in

ASSOCIATION

An Honor to Serve

NHPA is sharing the stories of these hometown heroes in all of its media brands. Visit YourNHPA.org/veterans to read more about these honorees.

A New Way to Serve NHPA Program Honors Military Veterans Who Have Served Our Country, Channel While there is no way to repay the sacrifices made by veterans of the armed forces, the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) recognizes that not only have these individuals made a lasting impact on their country, but they are also a prominent and positive influence within the home improvement industry.

NHPA honors the ongoing impact military veterans make throughout the home improvement industry through its Helmets to Home Improvement recognition program, with the National Hardware Show as the program’s official founding sponsor and venue partner.

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ASSOCIATION

Nominate a Veteran Help us honor those who have served our country and our channel. Visit YourNHPA.org/veterans to nominate a veteran from your business to be recognized.

48 PAINT & DECORATING RETAILER | January 2026

T H A N K YOU TO O U R PR O GR A M S PO N S O R S

Monrovia, Liberia, during the first Liberian civil war. Morath was then deployed to Operation Desert Shield and Storm in Saudi Arabia. Upon his return, he re-enlisted and was reclassified as a legal specialist in 1992, working in various roles for the staff judge advocate’s office in Quantico, Virginia.

After his time in active duty, Morath worked for Headquarters Marine Corps for six years before moving back to Tampa, Florida.

There, he found a marketing role at ALLPRO through a staffing agency.

He was hired for the position and went back to school shortly after to earn a degree in marketing and communications.

Today, Morath serves as ALLPRO’s vice president of marketing.

The variety of the independent channel is one of Morath’s favorite aspects of working in the industry.

“Everyone here at ALLPRO has a broad range of responsibilities,” he says. ”Plus, I don’t know if you’ve looked around this industry lately, but there’s a colorful cast of characters out there and this office is no different. It makes coming to work every day fun.”

Morath says the thick skin and “never say die” mindset he gained during his time in the military have brought him far in the independent channel.

“The independent channel is full of obstacles and challenges, and I think having that military mindset goes a long way in dealing with those difficult aspects of the job,” he says.

Morath discovered a profound purpose during his time serving as a Marine. He carries that purpose into not only his current role at ALLPRO, but into his life.

“My favorite part about serving was when I found the most meaning or purpose,” he says. “We evacuated over 2,600 people in Monrovia during a bloody coup and later secured Iraqi positions as we pushed through Kuwait in the Gulf War.

Scott Morath (right) discovered a deep purpose during his time serving in the U.S. Marine Corps that he brings to his role at ALLPRO today.

Moments like those are what we trained for and the ones I reminisce about the most.”

Morath believes a veterans’ motivation and ideology are qualities that equip them well for the independent channel.

“I believe we served because we are idealists at heart and wanted

to contribute to the good fight,” he says. “I think that ideology is what makes veterans a good fit for the independent channel. Independents are out there every day believing in themselves and their team, fighting to make their community a better place for themselves, their families and their employees.”

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Merchandising Strategies for Paint Accessories

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hile paint tools and accessories are a broad category with a large number of items that could fall under that department in a store, it’s important to utilize smart merchandising so customers can find the products and information they need and you can better manage inventory.

Thoughtful merchandising also makes a store

look fully stocked, which has an impact on overall perception and quality of your business.

At Redding Paint Mart, Inc. in Redding, California, owner Jeff Schuler knows the importance of prioritizing paint accessories and merchandising them successfully. Clear and creative displays allow customers to easily choose the best tools for their needs.

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OPERATIONS

Coatings That Sell

Learn the marketing and training techniques to sell a specialty paint category at PDRmag.com/specialization-sells.

Easy Access Redding Paint Mart owner Jeff Schuler puts as many paint accessories on display as possible to help customers shop.

“I dedicate a lot of space to have everything out on display,” Schuler says. “It really gives the customer a nice visual as to what will work best for their project.”

For many accessories at Redding Paint, specifically paint trays, buckets and liners, Schuler has found his customers prefer well-known brands, regardless of price point. Stocking multiple products from the same brand, like matching liners and buckets, keeps his customers coming back to the store as a one-stop shop for accessories.

“While the cost of some of the liners for these brands seem a little pricey, the convenience seems to outweigh the cost as we sell a lot of them,” Schuler says.

Cross-merchandising with other paint products is also an effective way to merchandise accessories. Displaying paint tools with the items they are intended to go with can boost transaction sizes.

“We market our accessories by setting them next to similar products, like roller pans and rollers,” Schuler says.

“Our accessories are really more of a quick convenience item for our customers.”

Paint accessory categories also serve as niche categories, offering opportunities to specialize in certain areas.

“We are a very diverse store, so what may seem normal to me may be niche to another dealer,” Schuler says. “What we specialize in that our competition does not is a vast supply of sanders and vacs, pressure washers and space heaters.”

Accessories can also serve as impulse items. When customers are looking for a last-minute tool for the project,

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“Our accessories are a segment of our business that continues to grow every year, and I am always expanding it.”

—Jeff Schuler, Redding Paint Mart stopping by a store is a better and more efficient option than ordering something online. Schuler’s accessory category stays competitive by aligning prices with online prices for similar items.

“What I have found is that when customers want or need equipment they do not want to order it,” Schuler says.

“As long as I can be close to an online or direct price, it will sell. Our accessories are a segment of our business that continues to grow every year, and I am always expanding it.”

Guidance From a Name You Trust NHPA now offers one-on-one consulting that connects independent retailers directly with trusted industry experts who’ve spent their careers leading top-performing home improvement operations.

Our consultants are seasoned pros—unbiased, vetted by your association, and deeply experienced in every major area of running a successful retail business. They’ve been in your shoes, led teams, solved complex challenges and driven growth from the ground up.

With NHPA Strategic Consulting, you get practical, real-world solutions tailored to your store’s needs.

It’s our mission to connect you with the strongest retail minds in the industry—so you can strengthen your operation, solve challenges faster and move your business forward with confidence.

As a trade association, it’s our mission to connect you with the best retail minds in the industry who can provide the best solutions for your specific needs.

Real Retail Experience.

Proven Solutions.

Scan the QR Code or visit YourNHPA.org/Consulting to sign up and learn more.

Why NHPA Strategic Consulting?

Trusted NHPA-Vetted Advisors Active in NHPA’s roundtables, guiding key industry discussions for independent retailers.

Extensive Retail Experience Decades of experience in leadership roles at leading independent home improvement stores.

Specialized Retail Expertise Each consultant specializes in core areas that drive your business.

Proven Industry Leaders Renowned experts shaping NHPA’s programs, education and trade magazines.

Mission Focused & Non-Biased Our consultants are NHPA-focused and loyal only to your business.

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RESOURCES

News to You Subscribe to our weekly newsletters at PDRmag.com/subscribe to get the latest news and trends.

Project Tracking HIRI Gives Insight on the Future of Large-Scale Home Improvement Projects

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ndependent retailers are coming into 2026 with a cooling renovation market and a cost-sensitive customer with a shift toward DIY. Dave King, executive director of the Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI), Dave King says those pressures will hit independent retailers differently than big-box chains because they have less pricing power when customers start shopping harder for value.

King says the slowdown in large projects is consistent with the broader pattern they’re watching across national sales data. Retail revenue is mostly flat in dollars, but down in product volume, accounting for inflation. Larger ticket items are where the pullback sits.

“The bigger the dollar amount, the more individuals are saying now isn’t the time to start a project,” King says.

In HIRI’s Q3 Project Activity Tracker, 69% of homeowners said the quarter wasn’t a good time to start a large-scale project. King says that mindset won’t disappear in the new year. Real disposable income hasn’t kept pace with higher product and housing costs. As pricing is top of mind for consumers, King says independents have an advantage, customer service. Independents are better positioned to guide shoppers through price tiers and explain what matters at each level.

“Where we see clear evidence of independents winning is in customer service,” he says. “If we can get our independents to really help the consumer understand the different tiers and what you get and don’t get, and where the trade-offs are, I really think that would help consumers and play into the strengths of the independents that I’ve witnessed.”

On the opposite end, King says the pros are also feeling pressure too, and that shows up in foot traffic.

As homeowners pull back from hiring contractors, pros compete harder for the limited work available.

“Pros are shopping around to get better pricing because it’s being demanded of them by their customer,” he says.

Digital capabilities also play a major role in who keeps the market share. Many shoppers won’t visit a store unless they can see the price and inventory first.

“If you’re not able to communicate that you have inventory available and what the price of that inventory is online, my guess is you’re hurting drastically more,” King says.

In 2026, King sees a steady, but cautious market.

Homeowners will continue delaying big-ticket renovations, and proceed with smaller, more cost-effective projects.

“Independent retailers have a very unique value proposition,” he says. “I hope they’re able to adapt without losing that because it’s such a great selling attribute.”

About HIRI The Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) is the only nonprofit organization primarily dedicated to home improvement research. The organization empowers its members with exclusive, ongoing home improvement data and information for making better business decisions. Members are the home improvement industry’s leading manufacturers, retailers and allied organizations. Learn more at hiri.org.

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NETWORK

Make a Plan CALENDAR

Visit YourNHPA.org/cal to find more industry events online.

This index is provided for the convenience of our advertisers and readers. The publisher assumes no liability for errors or omissions.

FEB 2026 Lancaster Buying Show February 6-7 | ORLANDO, FL

Orgill Spring Dealer Market February 5-7 | ORLANDO, FL

NAHB International Builders’ Show February 17-19 | ORLANDO, FL

Kitchen & Bath Industry Show February 17-19 | ORLANDO, FL

Ace Hardware Spring Convention February 24-26 | LOUISVILLE, KY

MAR EISENWARENMESSE International Hardware Fair March 3-6 | COLOGNE, GERMANY

Do it Best and True Value Spring Market March 6-8 | DENVER, CO

3M ..................................................................................................................................... 5 3M.com Benjamin Moore....................................................................................................... IBC benjaminmoore.com DAP ............................................................................................................................... 15 dap.com Epicor ............................................................................................................................ 7 epicor.com Fine Paints of Europe ....................................................................................9 finepaintsofeurope.com Golden Paintworks ....................................................................................... 13 goldenpaintworks.com Howard Products Inc................................................................................... 16 howardproducts.com NHPA Young Retailer of the Year Awards...................................IFC YourNHPA.org/yroty NHPA Strategic Consulting .............................................................................53 YourNHPA.org/consulting

NHS Concept to Commerce....................................................................... 17 nhs26.com/nhpa-rsvp Old Masters ............................................................................................................ 3 myoldmasters.com PPG .............................................................................................................................BC ppgpaints.com Richard’s Paint .............................................................................................................. 14 richardspaint.com Shurtape Technologies ............................................................................... 11 shurtape.com Stop Loss Bags................................................................................................... 16 stoplossbags.com Wooster Brush ............................................................................................18-19 woosterbrush.com

Scan the QR code to see our full list of events.

YourNHPA.org/cal *Events are current as of press day.

To add your event to the industry calendar, send an email to editorial@YourNHPA.org.

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FINISH

RESEARCH

Driving Growth

Economists share an inside look at how housing affordability will be key to growth in the industry at PDRmag.com/housing-affordability.

Silver Linings

A

Remodeling Activity Set to Grow in 2026

ccording to Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) annual expenditures for home improvement and maintenance are projected to remain steady into the middle of 2026, which is good news for independent home improvement retailers catering more to repair and maintenance projects.

The LIRA projects that year-over-year spending on home renovation and repair will rise by 2.4% in early 2026 before easing to 1.9% in the third quarter of next year.

The director of Harvard’s Remodeling Futures Program, Rachel Bogardus Drew, says that demand will remain stable in 2026, and remodeling spending is expected to reach $524 billion early in 2026, which is a new record high.

“If the housing market begins to show signs of momentum, remodeling could be poised for stronger growth into 2027,” she says. “However, sluggish housing

starts and uncertainty in the broader economy, which are factors in predicting remodeling expenditures, are creating headwinds to larger gains in renovation and repair spending.”

At its 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference in early December, Home Depot’s executive VP and CFO Richard McPhail stated its market recovery case reflects performance expectations “once we see momentum in housing activity and increased spend on larger projects driven by pent-up demand.”

“We believe that the pressures in housing will correct and provide the home improvement market with support for growth faster than the general economy, and we expect to continue to grow faster than our market,” McPhail says.

“In our Accelerated Recovery Case, we could see sales and earnings per share grow faster in the event of a sharper housing recovery.”

HOME RENOVATION SPENDING PROJECTIONS In early 2026, home renovation and repair is expected to rise by

2.4%

In the third quarter, home renovation and repair is expected to ease by

1.9%

Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA)

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