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Volume 231 • Issue 4 • October 2026 • hardwareretailing.com

Serving Hardware, Home Center & Building Material Retailers

Published by the North American Hardware and Paint Association

Deck the Aisles for Holiday Sales Experts Share Expectations for the Holiday Season Page 16 TAKING OUR TEMPERATURE A Closer Look at Where the Industry Stands Page 24 LEAD WITH PURPOSE NHPA Revamps Retail Leadership Courses Page 34

OCTOBER ISSUE SPONSOR

2026

Have Questions? Contact Cody Goeppner at cgoeppner@YourNHPA.org

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365+ Microtraining Videos 14 Educational Categories 100% Device Accessibility Seasonal & Quarterly Updates

Subscribe Today! Scan the QR Code to sign up for RetailWise Plus or visit YourNHPA.org/retailwise.

Cody Goeppner Director of Education and Training, NHPA

Volume 231 • Issue 4 • October 2026 • hardwareretailing.com

Serving Hardware, Home Center & Building Material Retailers

Published by the North American Hardware and Paint Association

NAIL SELECTION MADE EASY

Your nail aisle shouldn’t confuse customers or slow down sales.

Color-Coded Categories | Built-In Product Education | Easy-to-Shop Display

A Smarter Way to Sell Nails

Most nail displays are hard to ship and easy to ignore. BuildRight® fixes that problem with a system designed for how customers actually buy. Reduces Confusion

Color-coded and descriptive packaging helps customers find products fast

Speed Up Selection

Actual-size graphics and clear windows eliminate guesswork

Increase Basket Size

Packaging encourages add-on purchases such as hammers

Help Staff Sell

Educational signage gives associates confidence and direction

800.444.7313

constructionscrews.com

CONNECTIONS

COMING IN NOVEMBER

EXECUTIVE STAFF CEO Bob Cutter PRESIDENT & PUBLISHER Scott Wright CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER Dan Tratensek

1025 East 54th St. Indianapolis, Indiana 317-275-9400 NHPA@YourNHPA.org YourNHPA.org OUR MISSION

The North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) helps independent home improvement, paint and decorating retailers, regardless of affiliations, become better and more profitable retailers. NHPA BOARD OF DIRECTORS

CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER & EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, BUSINESS SERVICES David Gowan

Passing the Torch Succession planning isn’t just a buzzword in the channel, it’s a necessary part of running an operation that all owners should be thinking about. In the November/December issue of Hardware Retailing, hear from fellow retailers who have made succession planning a priority and share best practices for passing your legacy onto the next generation.

CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD Joanne Lawrie, Annapolis Home Hardware Building Centre, Annapolis Royal, Nova Scotia EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMAN Ash Ebbo, Clement’s Paint, Austin, Texas IMMEDIATE PAST CHAIRMAN Ned Green, Weider’s Paint & Hardware, Rochester, New York DIRECTORS Christian Herrick, Randy’s Do it Best Hardware, Jackson, Virginia Michelle Meny, Meny’s True Value, Jasper, Indiana Jeremy Peterson, Family Hardware, Florida Katie Prus, Abbotsford Paint and Decorating, British Columbia, Canada Michael Sacks, FLC Holdings, LaGrange, Texas Emily Wood, Wood’s Ace Hardware, Bolts & Brews SECRETARY-TREASURER Bob Cutter, NHPA

STATE & REGIONAL ASSOCIATIONS MIDWEST HARDWARE ASSOCIATION Jody Kohl, 201 Frontenac Ave., P.O. Box 8033 Stevens Point, WI 54481-8033 800-888-1817; Fax: 715-341-4080

NHPA CANADA SUPPLY-BUILD CANADA Rebekah Doerksen, Executive Assistant Direct: 204-953-1692 | Cell: 204-990-3536 Toll-Free: 1.800.661.0253 ext. 103 102-226 Osborne St. N. Winnipeg, MB R3C 1V4

CIRCULATION, SUBSCRIPTION & LIST RENTAL INQUIRIES CIRCULATION DIRECTOR Richard Jarrett, 314-432-7511, gcscs8@gmail.com

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

CONTENT AND PRODUCTION

317-275-9400, editorial@YourNHPA.org EDITOR AND DIRECTOR OF CONTENT DEVELOPMENT Lindsey Thompson, lthompson@YourNHPA.org MARKETING MANAGER Olivia Shroyer NEWS & DIGITAL EDITOR Jacob Musselman, jmusselman@YourNHPA.org CONTENT DEVELOPMENT COORDINATOR Annie Dameworth, adameworth@YourNHPA.org SENIOR DESIGNER Autumn Ricketts PRODUCTION & DESIGN ASSISTANT Samantha Mitchell SALES & PRODUCTION ASSISTANT Freda Creech

SALES Hardware Retailing (ISSN 0889_2989), Copyright© 2026 by the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA), is published eight (8) times per year (January/February, March, April, May, June, July/August, September/October, November/December) by the North American Hardware and Paint Association, 1025 E 54 St, Indianapolis, IN 46220.

DIRECTOR OF MEDIA SALES Austin Vance, avance@YourNHPA.org | 574-340-1908 REGIONAL SALES DIRECTOR Jordan Rice jrice@YourNHPA.org | 217-808-1641

Subscription rates: Hardware Retailing (Payable in advance): U.S. & possessions $50/year. Canada $75/year. All other countries $110/year. Single copy $7. The Annual Report issue can be purchased for $30.

REGIONAL SALES MANAGER—CENTRAL Jake Cutter jcutter@YourNHPA.org | 317-363-0776

Business and Editorial Offices: 1025 E 54 St. Indianapolis, IN 46220

REGIONAL SALES MANAGER—WEST Dan Beck dbeck@YourNHPA.org | 518-852-9624

Accounting and Circulation Offices: The North American Hardware and Paint Association, 1025 E 54 St., Indianapolis, IN 46220. Call 317-275-9400 to subscribe. Periodicals postage is paid at Indianapolis, IN and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Hardware Retailing, P.O. Box 16709, St. Louis, MO 63105-1209.

ASSOCIATION PROGRAMS

800-772-4424, NHPA@YourNHPA.org DIRECTOR OF EDUCATION & TRAINING Cody Goeppner, cgoeppner@YourNHPA.org TRAINING MANAGER & EDITOR Jesse Carleton, jcarleton@YourNHPA.org MEMBER SERVICES & EVENT COORDINATOR Christina Kane, ckane@YourNHPA.org

Volume 231 | Issue 4 October 2026

CONTENTS

HardwareRetailing

DEPARTMENTS

FEATURES

Taking Care of Business........................................................... ...........................................................04 Dan Tratensek, NHPA Chief Operating Officer

Editorially Speaking...................................................................... ......................................................................06 Lindsey Thompson, NHPA Editor

Industry Viewpoint........................................................................ ........................................................................08 Jeremy Melnick, NHPA Strategic Consultant

Trends.......................................................................................................... .......................................................................................................... 10

OPERATIONS

Where We Stand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 The 2026 Independent Home Improvement Conference main stage played host to industry experts who shared insights into how the home improvement industry has performed this year and where the future of the channel is headed.

Sponsored by

New Products....................................................................................... .......................................................................................12

+7.6%

Newsmakers......................................................................................... .........................................................................................40 Calendar................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................42 Last Word................................................................................................ ................................................................................................ 43

Is the average retailers are budgeting in revenue increase between 2025 and 2026.

RESEARCH

Measuring Up. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 The Quarterly Independent Performance Report examines key Q2 2026 performance metrics, offering insights into industry trends, transaction shifts and economic outlooks for independent home improvement retailers. See how you stack up against the competition.

OPERATIONS

Training Built for Independents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

16 COVER STORY

Stocked, Staffed and Ready for the Holidays Industry experts share insights on what the upcoming holiday selling season holds for retailers across all industries and how the independent home improvement channel can prepare for this vital time.

NHPA’s Foundations of Retail Program helps managers and key employees build essential skills in leadership, financial management and merchandising through flexible, self-paced online courses—setting up today’s retail leaders for tomorrow’s success.

The course was amazing. I learned so much that I could immediately apply to the business. I felt it was well worth the investment of my time and cost to attend.” —Megan Stiers, Hermann Lumber

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

CONNECT

dant@YourNHPA.org

TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS

Dan Tratensek

Pay Attention to Your POS

“It may be time to stop thinking about your POS as simply the system that rings the register. Today, it connects inventory, employees, customers, e-commerce, pricing and operations.”

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

hether it’s robots roaming the aisles in search of empty peghooks or AI tools helping manage inventory, the conversation around technology in retail shows little sign of quieting. As costs rise and competition sharpens, technology must take a more central role in how independent retailers shape their strategic growth plans. The Quarterly Independent Performance Report conducted by NHPA and The Farnsworth Group is clear about where independent retailers are investing in tech, and the answer may surprise you because it’s not AI, robots or electronic shelf labels. When we ask retailers about the technology investments they plan to make, one answer consistently rises to the top: point-of-sale system enhancements. While investing in a more powerful POS system might not be as sexy as a robot rambling down the aisle, new research suggests it could deliver some of the most meaningful returns. A study recently conducted by Coresight Research surveyed 150 retail decision-makers involved in POS strategy and modernization. Of retailers that recently modernized their systems, 85% said the investment met or exceeded their expectations for return on investment. That’s compelling, but what caught my attention was where retailers were seeing those returns. Retailers that modernized reported an average 1.2% increase in store conversion and a 4.3% increase in average transaction size. Among retailers using cloud-based POS systems, 68% reported a moderate-to-high positive impact in factors like operational efficiency, inventory visibility, customer experience and sales performance. As a small business owner, the newest technology certainly might interest

you and tease the possibilities of what its impact might have on your business. But when it comes to making investments on a limited budget, the return has to have an immediate impact in some critical areas. Will it help employees be more productive? Will it help manage inventory better? Can employees quickly tell a customer whether you have an item? Can your website accurately reflect what’s available in the store? The Coresight study suggests retailers may underestimate some of these benefits that are linked to POS enhancements. Nearly half of the retailers in the study who modernized their POS reported improved store productivity, compared with just 24% of retailers planning an upgrade who expected that benefit. Half also reported improved real-time inventory visibility. These are improvements that matter. Labor isn’t getting cheaper or easier to find. Inventory is one of your largest investments. And customers increasingly expect the same seamless experience they receive from larger retailers. That doesn’t mean you need new technology simply because it’s available. But it may be time to stop thinking about your POS as simply the system that rings the register. Today, it connects inventory, employees, customers, e-commerce, pricing and operations. So, the next time you look at your POS and think, “It still works,” consider asking: How well could my business be doing if it worked better?

Dan M. Tratensek Chief Operating Officer

Leadership Essentials Build confidence, understand your leadership style and develop the foundational skills needed to lead yourself and others effectively.

Leading Your Team Strengthen communication, improve employee engagement and learn practical strategies for developing a high-performing team.

Financial Management Gain a clearer understanding of retail financials and learn how to use key information to make smarter business decisions.

MERCHANDISING MANAGEMENT

Tactics for Store Operations

Training Built for Independents DESIGNED TO STRENGTHEN YOUR LEADERS AND YOUR BUSINESS The NHPA Foundations Program provides practical, accessible online training built specifically for independent home improvement retailers. Designed for current and emerging leaders, Foundations develops the skills to lead teams, strengthen operations and improve business performance—all through training that can be applied immediately.

Apply proven merchandising practices that improve the customer experience, strengthen execution and support sales.

MERCHANDISING MANAGEMENT

Strategies for Buyers Develop stronger buying, assortment planning and vendor management strategies to support profitability and long-term growth.

Mentoring Learn how to build effective mentoring relationships that develop employees, transfer knowledge and strengthen your leadership pipeline.

COMING SOON

Explore the Foundations Program and enroll your team—scan the QR code or visit YourNHPA.org/Foundations.

Foundations of Succession Planning Prepare your business for the future with practical guidance for developing leaders, transferring knowledge and planning a successful transition.

CONNECT

lthompson@YourNHPA.org

EDITORIALLY SPEAKING

Lindsey Thompson

Leadership That Doesn’t Always Look Like Leadership

“Along with providing insights into leadership, these courses will offer opportunities for attendees to interact with fellow retailers to share wins and learn from each other’s road blocks.”

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

s I continue further into my leadership journey, I love discovering how many opportunities life gives us to practice leadership, and often in ways we least expect it. Once such time was the Hamilton County 4H Queen Pageant my daughter Liesl participated in this summer. While she didn’t come home with a sash or crown, she left with experience interviewing, answering questions on the fly and being on stage in front of a large crowd, all which will benefit her in her own leadership growth. It was 20 years earlier that I learned the same lessons participating in my hometown’s Tomato Festival Pageant. I was an introverted athlete who rarely wore makeup and cared little for fashion or beauty, but the possibility of winning scholarship money in a pageant was enough for me to sign up to participate not only once, but two years in a row. I never did end up winning anything, but I did gain some important leadership lessons, just like Liesl. I had to take part in an interview with adults, which would come in handy as I moved to college and then the professional world. I learned to think on my feet and answer questions on the fly, and I was able to meet and collaborate with people like me and many not like me. I also had to gather sponsorships to participate and gained experience in fundraising and sales.

Honestly, at the time, I didn’t realize I was leaving with all those leadership skills, but am so grateful that I took a chance and stepped out, and I’m so proud of Liesl for doing the same. This month, we’re launching a newly revamped Foundations of Retail program, with numerous courses and sessions geared toward learning leadership best practices. You can read about all the updated courses on Page 34. With start dates offered each month, the Foundations program offers six online courses for both new and seasoned leaders. Courses range from durations of four to 12 weeks and are self-paced to provide flexibility. Along with providing insights into leadership, these courses will offer opportunities for attendees to interact with fellow retailers to share wins and learn from each other’s road blocks. Like mine and Liesl’s experience in the pageants, these interactions offer prime chances for learning leadership lessons from others in unexpected ways. Keep on learning and keep on leading!

Lindsey Thompson Editor & Director of Content Development

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PROFILES

Smooth Succession INDUSTRY VIEWPOINT

Discover how one retailer is preserving its legacy through generations at hardwareretailing.com/humble-leadership.

Having the Hard Conversations

uccession planning can be hard, uncomfortable and awkward. I have been through the succession planning process personally and have advised others as they navigated ownership transitions. Every situation is unique, and there is no one-size-fits-all approach. While I have a background in finance and accounting, I am not a tax expert, estate planning attorney or licensed CPA. Whatever path is chosen, it is critical to consult with qualified professionals. Here are four key steps I would recommend. 1. Determine the Value of the Business Everyone involved should understand the value of the business. If the company were sold to an outside third party today, what would it be worth? This valuation should include the business, real estate, other assets and any shareholder benefits or perks. Most importantly, all current and future shareholders should agree on either the value itself or the formula that will be used to determine value. 2. Align Shareholder Expectations One of the most overlooked areas of succession planning is understanding what all parties expect before and after the ownership transition. In many cases, outgoing shareholders expect certain benefits to continue even after they are no longer actively involved in the business. Examples may include health insurance, cell phones or vehicle allowance. There is no right answer regarding these benefits. The important thing is that expectations are openly discussed and factored into the financial structure of the transition. 3. Assess Future Shareholders Honestly This is often the most difficult conversation. Owning a company and running a company are two very different responsibilities. Future shareholders should receive an honest assessment of their readiness, capabilities and leadership potential. Sometimes the next generation

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

is fully prepared to lead. In other situations, they may never be the best choice to run the business. While these conversations can feel personal, avoiding them can jeopardize the future of the company. The transfer of ownership and the transfer of leadership do not always have to go to the same person. Family members may retain ownership while an experienced outside executive manages the day-to-day operations. 4. Address Other Family Members Early This can be the most awkward conversation of all, but it may also be the most important. A common scenario occurs when incoming shareholders purchase the business at fair market value from the outgoing shareholders. Later, when the owners pass away, the children who acquired the business are excluded from inheriting additional assets because they already received the company. While the logic may seem reasonable on the surface, it can create significant inequities. The incoming shareholders have paid for their ownership interest, often over many years and with considerable financial risk. Excluding them from future inheritance can effectively result in them paying for the business while other family members receive assets through the estate without making the same investment. Final Thoughts A successful succession plan is about much more than transferring shares. It requires honest conversations about value, expectations, capabilities, leadership and family dynamics. The earlier these discussions begin, the more options everyone will have. Delaying the conversation rarely makes it easier. My succession plan was very successful, but it only took 24 years to complete.

Jeremy Melnick

NHPA Strategic Consultant LJB Advisors

Meet Jeremy Jeremy Melnick brings deep expertise in accounting, lease negotiations and business valuation, helping retailers make informed financial and operational decisions that drive growth. Jeremy is the former COO of JC Licht, overseeing 60 locations, and the previous owner of Gordon’s Ace, a 7-location retail chain. He has been recognized as an NHPA Young Retailer of the Year (2006) and as an NHPA Top Gun (2016).

CONNECT

Send Jeremy a Message Jmelnick@ljbadv.com Jeremy Melnick

Scan the QR Code to book a consultation with Jeremy.

RESEARCH

Renovation Dollars TRENDS

See how consumers are spending on home improvement in the last half of 2026 at hardwareretailing.com/improvement-2026.

New Home, New Purchases

How Homeowners Invest Their Money When Moving

uying a new home requires purchasing various items to outfit the new space, including appliances, furniture, decor items, renovation tools and other home accessories. According to recent data from the National Association of Home Builders’ Consumer Expenditure Survey, buyers of newly built homes spend an average of $26,882 on appliances, furnishings and remodeling and repairs during the first year after

purchasing a home, nearly three times the $9,457 spent by non-moving homeowners. Buyers of existing homes spend an average of $18,673 during the first year after purchasing a home, around twice the amount spent by non-moving homeowners. See where different types of homeowners are spending these dollars and discover where your store can capitalize on this consumer behavior.

APPLIANCES

$3,689

$4,344

is what buyers of existing homes spend on average on appliances during the first year after purchasing a home

is what buyers of newly built homes spend on average on appliances during the first year after purchasing a home

What appliances buyers of newly built and existing homes are buying: Refrigerators and home freezers Televisions

Clothes washers and dryers Lawn equipment

Computers

FURNITURE

$8,254

is what buyers of newly built homes spend on average on furniture

$3,894

is what buyers of existing homes spend on average on furniture

Largest furnishing expenditure among buyers of newly built and existing homes: Bedroom furniture

Sofas

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Window coverings

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Cost of Doing Business Study

Turn Industry Data Into Better Decisions UNLOCK YOUR BUSINESS POTENTIAL WITH THE 2026 COST OF DOING BUSINESS STUDY

NHPA’s 2026 Cost of Doing Business Study is now available, providing independent retailers with trusted financial benchmarks. Featuring data from hardware stores, home centers, LBM dealers and paint and decorating retailers across the U.S., the study helps you compare performance, identify opportunities and make informed decisions to improve profitability.

Why Invest in the 2026 Study? Benchmark Your Performance: Compare your financials to industry averages to ensure your business is on the right track. Uncover Cost-Saving Opportunities: Identify areas across your operations where you can reduce expenses and increase efficiency. Boost Profitability: Make informed decisions that enhance your bottom line and drive growth.

Ready to invest in your business? Purchase the study.

Strategize for the Future: Plan with the confidence that comes from leveraging the latest industry data.

PRODUCTS

Retailer Recommendations NEW PRODUCTS

Send a note to editorial@YourNHPA.org about products you can’t keep on the shelf. Include your name, your business name and why you love it.

Wood Pellet Patio Heater

The Big Timber Patio Heater from Timber Stoves is a 90,000-BTU outdoor heater that uses wood pellets and requires no electricity. It features a 20-pound hopper, three-sided viewing windows and a 12-foot maximum heating radius. The stainless steel heater has an enclosed flame and can be refilled during operation. Timber Stoves | timberstoves.com

Phone Mount

The Car Screen Phone Mount Charger from Rokform attaches to a vehicle’s infotainment screen or dashboard and provides up to 15W wireless charging for MagSafe-compatible phones. It features a folding adjustable arm, 360-degree rotation and a magnetic mounting head for positioning a phone while driving. Rokform | rokform.com

Portable Car Shelter

The WeatherFast Portable Shelter is a durable, collapsible storage shelter with a powder-coated steel frame and three-layer, UV-treated polyethylene cover, featuring a ratchet tightening system, ground anchors and a double-zipper front panel—designed for easy assembly and sheltering vehicles or equipment from the elements. Win World International Trade | winworldintl.com

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Motorized Window Coverings

SmartWings Motorized Roller Shades are available in sunscreen, light-filtering and blackout fabric options for controlling light and privacy. The shades can be operated by remote, app, voice command or compatible smart home systems with scheduling and automation options available.

Photo Courtesy of Ford’s Food

SmartWings | smartwingshome.com or support@smartwingshome.com

Steak Seasoning

Bone Suckin’ Seasoning Steak Seasoning & Rub from Ford’s Food is a spice blend with salt, pepper, garlic and other seasonings made for grilling or pan searing steak. Ford’s Foods Inc. | bonesuckin.com

Camp Cooking Set

The Genesis Basecamp System from Jetboil is a portable two-burner propane stove with two 10,000-BTU burners and adjustable flame control. The system includes a 5-liter cook pot, 10-inch ceramic-coated fry pan, windscreen, fuel regulator and carrying bag. Jetboil | jetboil.johnsonoutdoors.com

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

Soft-Close Cabinet Hinge

The TEC Soft-Close Face Frame Hinge System from Grass America features a three-tier adjustable soft-close mechanism built into the hinge cup. Users can select light, medium or strong closing tension without tools, and the hinge is designed for face frame cabinetry with 42-millimeter and 45-millimeter boring patterns. Grass America | grassusa.com

Utility Wagon

The Go-Hauler from GCI Outdoor is a folding utility wagon with a 220-pound total weight capacity and side-mounted rigger arms that hold up to 40 pounds of additional gear. It features wide wheels, a telescoping handle, removable bumper caddy, dual cup holders and a steel top frame for stacking cargo. GCI Outdoor | gcioutdoor.com

Door Stop

The 232 Spring Door Stop from National Hardware is a steel spring doorstop with a rubber tip to prevent wall damage. It includes mounting hardware and is designed for easy installation on baseboards or walls. National Hardware | national-hardware.com or ameet.kular@assaabloy.com

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Universal Toilet Flapper

The Fluidmaster Universal 2- and 3-inch Super Flapper is a universal toilet flapper that fits all toilet sizes. The flapper is easy to install and can adjust to set water use per flush. This kit also comes with a 10-year warranty. Fluidmaster | fluidmaster.com

Cordless Framing Nailer

The 18V 21° Cordless Pneumatic Framing Nailer from Metabo HPT drives round-head nails from 2 to 3 ¹⁄₂ inches and can fire up to six nails per second. It weighs 7.9 pounds without the battery and delivers up to 1,170 nails per charge with the included 10Ah T-PWR Tabless battery. Metabo HPT | metabo-hpt.com

Hose Reel

The Hose Reel from Gorilla is designed for storing and managing garden hoses. The reel uses a durable frame and fittings for use in residential, landscaping and outdoor maintenance applications. Gorilla | gorillamade.com

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

OPERATIONS

Ready for the Rush? Unwrapping Expectations for This Holiday Season BY LINDSEY THOMPSON

hanks to an uptick in consumer spending, an increase in traffic and a boost in profit opportunities in a short window of time, the holiday selling season—Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas—is especially important for ending the year strong in sales. According to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, holiday retail sales are projected to total between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion during the November 2026 through January 2027 period, representing an increase of 4.0% to 4.8% from the same period in 2025. “Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend. As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels,

including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending,” says Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. “These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season.” Many independents, not able to compete with large chains on price alone, instead lean into product knowledge, unique merchandise, local relationships, gift recommendations, convenient fulfillment and a compelling in-store experience. As retailers plan for this crucial selling season, Hardware Retailing sat down with National Retail Federation (NRF) senior analyst Lea Grgich and The Farnsworth Group’s senior advisor Karen Barnes and president and senior consultant Grant Farnsworth, who shared helpful insights on consumer expectations going into the end of 2026.

Grant Farnsworth

Karen Barnes

President & Senior Consultant

Senior Advisor

Senior Analyst

The Farnsworth Group

National Retail Federation

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Lea Grgich

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

Hardware Retailing: What are the biggest trends shaping this holiday season?

Lea Grgich As we saw during the summer and the back-to-school season, affordability is a key consideration for shoppers. Consumers continue to prioritize spending moments such as back-to-school and major holiday celebrations, but they’re also being increasingly thoughtful about how they spend. Many are comparing prices across retailers, making trade-offs in other areas of their budgets, seeking promotions and discounts and spreading purchases over a longer period to manage costs while still buying the items that matter most to help make occasions and holidays special.

Karen Barnes The story of this holiday season is a more deliberate customer. Homeowners haven’t stopped spending, but they’re being more selective about where and how. Our research shows maintenance and necessity-driven projects—the things people do regardless of economic conditions—remain the most consistent category of activity, while bigger discretionary projects are more likely to get pushed to someday.

Grant Farnsworth Findings from The Farnsworth Group and the Home Improvement Research Institute’s (HIRI) Q2 2026 Homeowner Project Activity Tracker show that homeowners doing home improvement projects dropped from 44% in Q2 2025 down to 38% for Q2 this year. Further, 76% of those projects completed were home maintenance related, versus only 36% for home renovation. For retailers, that means the 2026 holiday season will likely reward those who can clearly demonstrate value and help customers feel confident about a purchase, rather than those relying on volume or foot traffic alone.

2025 Holiday Shopping Results Source: January 2026 Holiday Quick Take, Deloitte

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

3.9%

Year-over-year growth in total retail spending

Hardware Retailing: Which retail categories are expected to be winners and losers?

Lea Grgich While it is still too early to predict which gifts or brands will resonate most with shoppers, retailers are working to offer compelling prices, convenient options and seamless shopping experiences this holiday season. One category showing early momentum is personal care, which saw strong consumer interest around both Father’s Day and the back-to-school season. That trend suggests shoppers are increasingly prioritizing self-care and wellness purchases for loved ones and themselves, making personal care a category to watch.

Karen Barnes Behavioral patterns are consistent across The Farnsworth Group’s research: purchases tied to necessity, upkeep or clear functional value hold up best in a squeezed market, while big-ticket, purely discretionary items are the first to get delayed. Quality and durability continue to be the top purchase drivers for most homeowners, ranking above price for younger buyers especially, so products or gifts that clearly signal lasting value are likely to outperform products competing on price alone.

Grant Farnsworth We typically see yard, garden and landscape projects at their lowest point over the holiday season. As our Homeowner Project Activity Tracker shows, 26% of those doing a project completed an outdoor project in October to December last year. Last season, bathroom projects were most popular. Bathroom projects and kitchen project remain popular throughout the year because they are not seasonal in nature.

2.9%

Year-over-year growth in in-store spending

7.4%

Year-over-year growth in online spending

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

Hardware Retailing: How will inflation—or broader economic uncertainty—affect consumer spending this holiday season?

Karen Barnes Demand for home improvement projects hasn’t disappeared, it’s just become more conditional. On top of that, disposable income is under pressure from multiple directions right now, not just tariffs, but rising fuel costs and cooling wage growth as well. For holiday shoppers specifically, we’d expect that same conditional mindset to show up as smaller, more considered purchases rather than an outright pullback. We’re also seeing a K-shaped pattern play out across the industry: higher-income households (top 20%) continue to spend more freely and account for approximately 50% of home improvement spend, while everyone else is watching their budget more closely. That divide will likely show up in what sells this holiday season. Retailers who can reduce the guesswork, through financing options, clear value messaging or bundling are best positioned to convert that hesitant demand into a sale.

“Retailers who can reduce the guesswork through financing options, clear value messaging or bundling are best positioned to convert that hesitant demand into a sale.”

Grant Farnsworth There’s a real gap opening up between what homeowners want to do and what they’re actually doing. The Farnsworth Group and HIRI’s Q2 2026 Homeowner Project Activity Tracker found that more than one-third of homeowners who started a project this year ultimately postponed or canceled it, most often citing financial concerns. Additionally, nearly three-quarters say they have a project in mind they simply haven’t started yet.

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Hardware Retailing: How important are online sales versus in-store sales this year?

Lea Grgich While NRF’s 2026 back-to-school survey found a slight pullback in online shopping among both K-12 and college shoppers, consumers continue to take an omnichannel approach to major spending events and holidays. Increasingly, shoppers view purchases through a retailer’s website, app or store as part of the same shopping experience, while using multiple channels to compare prices, research products and find the best value. Retailers remain committed to providing a seamless experience that makes it easy for consumers to shop however and wherever they choose.

Karen Barnes For independent retailers specifically, we’d expect them to skew more in-store than the broader retail category overall because independents’ advantage has always been expertise and personal service—differentiators that are harder to replicate online—and that matters even more to a customer who’s being more careful with each purchase this season.

Grant Farnsworth Retailer websites remain the most-used research and shopping channel across every generation, from roughly 59% of Millennial and Gen Z DIYers up to about 79% of Boomers, so digital research is now a non-negotiable part of the path to purchase regardless of age. But there’s a generational divide in where the actual dollars go: younger buyers are shifting more of their spend toward channels like Amazon compared to older generations, while big-box retailers still capture the largest overall wallet share.

“Retailer websites remain the most-used research and shopping channel across every generation.”

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

10 Promotional Ideas to Make the Holidays Brighter As the holiday seasons roll around, make sure your operation is ready to attract customers and keep them shopping in your store with these promotional ideas.

Thematic Sets: Connect related products. Instead of just stocking holiday lights, display them with timers, extension cords and storage bins.

Outdoor Greenery Lot: Transform a garden center into a bustling Christmas tree and wreath lot to draw local foot traffic.

Free Gift Wrapping: Offer free gift wrapping to customers who purchase a minimum amount or allow a nonprofit to provide the gift-wrapping services in your store in exchange for a donation to their organization.

Staple Gifts: Focus on budget-friendly but desirable items like drink tumblers, hand tools and branded accessories.

Big-Ticket Items: Promote higher-margin items like pellet grills and pizza ovens.

Holiday Décor: Stock a robust selection of artificial trees, wreaths, inflatables and string lights.

Winter Essentials: Capitalize on the cold weather by promoting space heaters, salt/ice melters, snow shovels and everyday home essentials (batteries, flashlights, light bulbs).

Social Media Scavenger Hunt: Increase visits by hiding a festive character (like a mischievous elf) around the store and posting daily clues.

Promotional Pricing: Use strategic point-of-sale deals such as multi-buys, bundle discounts and loyalty perks.

Digital Presence: Showcase inventory and upcoming sales on your website and social media weeks before the core season begins.

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Hardware Retailing: What indicators will you be watching to judge the season’s success?

Lea Grgich The back-to-school season acts as a barometer for the winter holidays. Even though consumers are still cautious, record spending on K-12 and college preparations shows shoppers will continue to spend in the face of higher gas prices and inflation. As we approach the winter holiday season, monthly reports like the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor will provide important insights into retail sales trends and consumer spending. We’ll also be watching key moments throughout the season, including the Thanksgiving shopping weekend, to better understand consumer demand for deals and promotions.

Karen Barnes We’d watch a few things closely this year, including whether retailers see meaningful growth in transaction counts and units sold, not just dollars, since that tells you whether more people are actually walking through the door versus a smaller number of people spending more. We’d also watch average purchase size as a signal of whether bigger holiday purchases are happening or getting scaled down. And we’d keep an eye on project postponement and deferral rates; if more homeowners are pushing off planned purchases as the season goes on, that’s an early signal that budget pressure is winning out over holiday spending intent.

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

OPERATIONS

A Look Back to M Forward

2026 IHI Conference Measures of the Industry, Macroeconom BY LINDSEY THOMPSON

ringing the entire independent home improvement channel together for two days of education, networking and fun under the Florida sun at the JW Marriott Grande Lakes in Orlando, the 2026 Independent Home Improvement Conference sent attendees home with practical takeaways and immediate best practices. As part of the general sessions, attendees heard from economic and industry experts and took a closer look at

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

the state of the industry an the channel is heading. Dan Tratensek, COO for North American Hardware Paint Association (NHPA) a midyear analysis of the s the industry and best prac finishing the rest of 2026 Dave King, Home Improve Institute (HIRI) executive d unpacked macroeconomics the independent channel.

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October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

During his “State of the Industry” presentation on the main stage, Tratensek shared that the home improvement retailing industry is undergoing fundamental shifts, driven by major macro-market, societal and consumer behavior shifts over the last decade. “We are currently ‘somewhere in the middle’ of this evolution and broad paradigm shift, leading to industry uncertainty,” Tratensek says. “Regardless of the drivers, the effects are being felt across all sectors of home improvement retail.” Tratensek explained that the industry is going through more than a temporary downturn, experiencing a fundamental transformation with economic and behavioral shifts reshaping competition and the independents’ traditional advantages becoming less sustainable.

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

“We are not experiencing just a down market. This is a different market,” Tratensek says. “We are experiencing slower growth, higher complexity and increased competition.” Since the end of COVID-19, the market has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6%, compared to average growth in the 3% range. Large retailers and independents are generating growth primarily through higher spending per customer rather than increased traffic and market share gains, operational execution and customer retention, which remain more important than broad market expansion, Tratensek says. Real home improvement spend per home peaked at $1,148 in the second quarter of 2021, the highest level since 1973, King says. Real home improvement spend is

now $892; that gap is why a positive forecast still feels flat across operations. “During the pandemic this industry was standing on a moving walkway, but that walkway has stopped. The dollar display is still moving because prices are higher, but you now have to create your own forward motion,” King says. “Growth is no longer something the market gives you. It’s something you earn by moving a project and taking share.” Looking specifically at the independent channel, independent retailers entered 2026 with renewed momentum and improved profitability, with sales growth driven by larger transaction sizes rather than increased customer traffic, Tratensek says. Margin recovery and disciplined inventory management are improving financial performance and retailers remain

optimistic about growth opportunities despite continued cost pressures. Customer traffic remains the industry’s most significant challenge, larger basket sizes continue to offset softer transaction counts and labor productivity has improved across most retail segments. “Inventory management remains one of the most critical operational disciplines as rising operating expenses continue to pressure profitability,” Tratensek says. “Winning retailers will focus on operational excellence, inventory productivity, labor efficiency and customer retention.” Looking to the future, the industry will see a continued shift to rural and suburban lifestyles, the aging in place segment will become more proliferant and there will be a change in focus from DIY to do it for me (DIFM).

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

Independent Impact Fantastic opportunities exist for those willing to seize them.

Growth is going to be harder to come by in the years ahead.

Big boxes and other channel players are investing heavily in tech solutions to expand markets.

Independents can differentiate but they MUST embrace alliances and tools effectively.

Partnerships, scale and technology will be critical to long-term survival.

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Revenue Outlook for the Balance of 2026

48% of retailers expect same-store sales growth to continue

+7.6% Is the average budgeted revenue increase between 2025 and 2026.

Areas of Future Investment Inventory Categories • Hardware & Fasteners • Lawn & Garden • Plumbing • Lumber & Building Materials Technology Priorities • Digital Marketing • Point-of-Sale Systems Employee Priorities • Training • Raises & Bonuses • Adding Staff • Leadership Development

“The industry appears to be moving toward a period of normalized, low-single-digit growth with growth opportunities strongest in pro customers, services, rural markets and emerging DIY segments,” Tratensek says. “Technology, workforce development and customer experience will become increasingly important differentiators, and future growth will come less from favorable market conditions and more from strategic execution and differentiation.” While demand for home improvement products has fallen, the need has not. Every peak-to-trough decline in real spend per home since 1970 has ended between $787 and $878, and every one was followed by a recovery, King says. “That is not a forecast, it is 55 years of history, and it is the strongest thing anyone can tell you about the long-term health of this industry,” King says. King sees the demand that remains moving toward need-driven categories that overlap with independent strengths and suggests three moves to recalibrate, not

retreat: Convert the not-yet project, own the urgent pro trip and own repair through completion. First, retailers need to help the customer move to action by giving them a credible reason to begin: promote essential repairs, offer good-better-best options and guide them on a phased plan where they do the urgent portions now and save the rest for later. Second, retailers can earn pro business by concentrating high-touch service where potential, fit and job-flow value are strongest. And, finally, they can own customer repairs through completion by building the complete list, confirming compatibility and alternatives, staging the order to the job and recovering fast when reality changes. “This is a confidence recession, not a demand collapse. Your biggest competitor is ‘not yet’ and every trough since 1970 has been followed by a recovery,” King says. “Be honest about this too: execution, not the market, is the variable. So don’t retreat. Recalibrate and move one more complete project from waiting to working.”

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Track Your Operation’s Progress

ooking at how fellow independent home improvement operators are performing throughout the year gives retailers in the channel a benchmark to make improvements to their own operations. Since 2022, the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) has partnered with The Farnsworth Group to produce the Quarterly Independent Performance Report, which tracks key performance metrics. The most recent Quarterly Independent Performance Report offers insight into how retailers are performing amid continued economic uncertainty. NHPA chief operating officer Dan Tratensek shares where the industry stands as of the second quarter of 2026, noting a pulse of cautious optimism as the year comes to a close. “As we are starting to see Q2 numbers come in, they are roughly in line with what we had expected to see. Home Depot, Lowe’s and Ace Hardware all posted strong revenue growth during the quarter but are still middling along in terms of comp-store sales,” Tratensek says.

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

Access the Report

Be sure you’re on the list to receive the newest data from the Quarterly Independent Performance Report. Head to YourNHPA.org/quarterly-report to subscribe today.

Ace’s comp-store sales for Q2 were only 1.1%, while Home Depot was practically a mirror image of this performance, registering Q2 comps of 1.3% for domestic stores. Lowe’s comps trailed the field, only posting slightly positive Q2 comps at just 0.2%. The positive comps for Ace and Home Depot were driven primarily by higher ticket sizes during the period. For Ace, average ticket was up 3.1%, while it increased 2.8% at Home Depot. Similarly, Lowe’s reported transaction size increased 2.3% during the period. All of the companies continued to struggle with store traffic yet again with Ace transaction count down 1.9% and Home Depot off by 1% from a year earlier and Lowe’s seeing a 2.1% dip in count. For overall revenue, Ace and Home Depot posted similar results with Ace reporting a 5.9% increase for the quarter and Home Depot clocking in with a 5.7% increase. Lowe’s had a stronger quarter for overall revenue, recording an 8.3% topline growth, with much of that positive momentum being influenced by its recent acquisitions. Ace’s overall revenue gains were driven by wholesale performance and new store conversions/openings during the period. Ace indicated that stores activated from January 2025 through June 2026 contributed $67.2 million in incremental wholesale revenue during Q2. Ace opened 34 domestic stores and canceled 17 during the quarter, finishing with 5,283 domestic stores—88 more than a year earlier. “According to their own reports, Ace sales were buoyed by strong performance in grilling, outdoor power, paint and impulse items. While these are typical high-volume items during the peak late spring and summer months, they are also indicative of Ace’s retail store focus,” Tratensek says. “As we are still experiencing somewhat of a K-shaped economy right now, it likely isn’t hurting Ace that they primarily service more affluent, suburban locations and have little LBM, commodity sales through the network. Even taking that into consideration, Ace did report that it had slightly stronger sales to pro and lumber customers during Q2.” This same assertion was made by both Home Depot and Lowe’s, who both indicated that slightly accelerated pro purchases were a strong factor in their comp increases.

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

CHANGES TRANSACTION COUNT (YEAR OVER YEAR)

In Q2, 37% of independent retailers reported a YOY increase in transaction counts, up 14 percentage points from Q1 and 10 percentage points from Q2 2025. Average transaction counts increased 3.7%, reversing the 1.1% decline in Q1 and the strongest result in the past two years. Increased Stayed about the same Decreased

49% 39% 27%

34%

42%

37%

27%

24%

21%

Q2 2024

Q2 2025

Q2 2026

< 5% of respondents were unsure

CHANGES IN TRANSACTION SIZE (YEAR OVER YEAR)

Nearly half of independent retailers reported a YOY increase in transaction size in Q2, down 12 percentage points from Q1 but up 3 percentage points from Q2 2025. Average transaction size increased 2.5%, easing from 3.3% in Q1 but remaining above the 1.1% increase reported in Q2 2025. Increased Stayed about the same Decreased

44% 38%

33%

47% 39%

34%

29% 18%

Q2 2024

Q2 2025

< 5% of respondents were unsure

18%

Q2 2026

As a sign that some stagnation in bigger ticket purchases might be breaking, Home Depot reported that transactions over $1,000 had increased by 2.4% during the quarter but also noted that they see continued pressure on “large discretionary purchases” for the foreseeable future. “Independent retailers in general reported a relatively stronger Q2 while echoing much of what we see in the Ace and Home Depot financial filings,” Tratensek says. “While NHPA and The Farnsworth Group’s Quarterly Independent Performance Report showed localized sales increases, in some cases in double digits, the overall theme was similar to what we are seeing in the broader picture—slow, modest growth being driven by ticket size.” Retailers responding to the Quarterly Independent Performance Report survey indicated that they were seeing a slight rebound in transaction counts during the period. As the year plays out, future data will show if this is actually an inflection point in the downward traffic spiral or simply an anomaly driven by regional variations. As far as predictions for the balance of the year, while some organizations like Cleveland Research are predicting a relatively flat performance for 2026, Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year guidance of overall revenue being up 2.5-4.5% and comp-store sales projecting at flat to up 2%. Lowe’s, however, lowered its full-year guidance, indicating that it was likely the company will finish the year with flat comp-store sales, down from its most recent projection of flat to up 2%. “What all this suggests is that neither Home Depot nor Lowe’s are anticipating a strong second half of the year to drive sales improvement,” Tratensek says. “NHPA is still holding to its earlier predictions of the industry being up in the low 2.0% range for the year. The Home Improvement Research Institute also recently revised its 2026 forecast for industry growth and is currently predicting that the industry will see a modest 2.6% increase this year.” In somewhat of a contrast to the numbers we are seeing from retail, the U.S. Census Bureau numbers showed the building materials segment up 4.6% through July. While some variations in performance are to be expected because of the different ways organizations look at the industry, this number feels particularly strong given the reporting we are seeing from the actual ground.

“While the Quarterly Independent Performance Report showed localized sales increases, in some cases in double digits, the overall theme was similar to what we are seeing in the broader picture—slow, modest growth being driven by ticket size.” —Dan Tratensek, NHPA “One notable point to bring up from what we are seeing with Ace is that Q2 digital sales grew by a robust 12.8%, and across management they say this is an intentional focus that they hope to continue leaning into,” Tratensek says. “That growth comes as Ace continues to invest in customer-facing digital marketing, RedVest Media and consumer data, all of which are increasingly important components of its broader digital strategy.” On the digital and fulfillment front, Home Depot just announced the nationwide rollout of Express Delivery, offering delivery on eligible products in three hours or less for a small flat fee. The company also offers free same-day delivery on eligible orders of $25 or more placed by 4 p.m. “It’s important to note, at least, that among Ace, Home Depot and Lowe’s that Lowe’s posted the strongest Q2 digital growth, indicating that online sales during the period were up 15.7% for the quarter,” Tratensek says.

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

Retailer-Focused

Learning EDUCATION

NHPA’s Foundations of Retail Program Equips Leaders Today for Success Tomorrow BY

ANN IE

DAMEWORTH

he Foundations of Retail Program courses led by the North American Hardware and Paint Association (NHPA) help managers and key employees understand the essential concepts of leadership, personal development and merchandising. Built with flexibility for busy schedules, these online courses feature industry-specific training created with the help of industry-leading retailers. With start dates offered each month, the Foundations program offers six online courses for both new and seasoned leaders. Courses range from durations of four to 12 weeks and are self-paced to provide flexibility. Continued on Page 39

34 HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

Course Options Leadership Essentials

In this introductory course, students will learn about their unique leadership style and strengths that will provide a framework for their ongoing leadership growth and do mostly on-the-job training.

Leading Your Team

This course teaches students the critical components of building and leading a team, including communication skills, conflict management, talent development and performance management.

Financial Management

Students will focus on the key financial management skills that developing leaders need to manage the financial side of business, including the basics of expense control, budgeting and benchmarking.

Merchandising Management Tactics for Store Operations

This course is designed for owners, managers and retail employees who want to understand how effective merchandising strategies can boost sales. Learn the philosophy and best practices behind successful retail merchandising, including how visual merchandising enhances sales, the purpose and use of promotional spaces and strategies for store resets and remodels.

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

The Next Step Retailers who complete the Foundations of Retail Program and are looking for additional avenues for leadership training can take part in NHPA’s prestigious Retail Management Certification Program (RMCP). In the program, students will learn applied business strategy, advanced retail operations, advertising and marketing, financial management, budget benchmarking and leadership and team building skills. NHPA hosts live, interactive sessions for students

to network and work in small groups and classes to share experiences and challenges on a variety of topics. Between sessions, retailers participate in webinars and coaching calls and work with mentors in their organizations to implement new skills in their businesses. More than 300 retailers have been a part of the learning experience, gaining new skills that have allowed them to manage and drive their businesses to higher levels of performance.

“The course was amazing. I learned so much that I could immediately apply to the business. I felt it was well worth the investment of my time and cost to attend.” —Megan Stiers, Hermann Lumber

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

Merchandising Management Strategies for Buyers

This course offers an in-depth look at strategic merchandising and category management. Learn to build vendor relationships, negotiate effectively, plan assortments and choose the right pricing strategies tailored to your business. The course also covers how to align merchandising and advertising with your brand and explores key design elements to consider when designing or remodeling a store.

Mentoring

Mentoring is a key component to developing great leaders at any company. This online course from NHPA offers a uniform way to train future mentors on how to serve that role to the best of their abilities in a consistent and structured manner. Future mentors will learn all aspects of the mentor/mentee relationship in a professional, easy-to-understand and easy-to-apply manner.

Foundations of Succession Planning Prepare your business for the future with practical guidance for developing leaders, transferring knowledge and planning a successful transition.

HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Continued From Page 34

At the conclusion of each course, students will be ready to perform a subjective assessment of their business unit and apply their new skills to address some of the core issues in the business and recommendations for improvement in key areas. “Every week, I enjoyed putting what I learned into practice,” says Sara Brewer, store manager of S.W. Collins Co. “Foundations of Merchandising Management made me think about our current store layout, the products we carry and how we could make it easier for customers to shop.” Throughout the process, each student will be assigned a mentor within their company to guide them through the courses. Mentors are provided

with discussion points, learning objectives and full access to the curriculum to help engage students in how to apply what they have learned. The learning doesn’t stop when the course is over. When students complete Foundations courses they are eligible to receive a scholarship for the amount of tuition paid (minus course fees) to attend a future class of the NHPA Retail Management Certification Program. “I use everything I’ve learned to communicate with employees and be a leader they can trust,” says Madison Franklin, Gold Country Ace Hardware. “I learned so much about myself and how I interact with others through the course.”

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

RESOURCES

News to You NEWSMAKERS

Stay updated with the latest news and trends by subscribing to our daily newsletters at hardwareretailing.com/subscribe.

Major Retailers Navigate Impact of Recent Tariff Refunds T

ariff refunds allocated to major companies following the Supreme Court’s rule that President Donald Trump did not have the power to impose tariffs have presented challenges for companies reporting earnings for the second quarter. Top home improvement retailers are allocating this extra cash in different ways, impacting factors like pricing and gross margin. The Home Depot’s gross margin increase rose 0.3% in Q2 2026 compared to the same period last year, largely driven by their $730 million tariff refund. Around $685 million of the refund was used to reduce the cost of goods sold. Lowe’s received roughly $80 million in tariff refunds, slightly boosting the company’s earnings per share for the second quarter. CEO Marvin Ellison says the company did not plan to use these refunds to lower prices. Tractor Supply Company will focus on offering promotions and lowering prices on certain items following the company’s refund. Tractor Supply’s gross margin rose to 37.1% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 36.9% in Q2 2025. Other large names in retail like Walmart and Target saw impacts of the refunds reflected in Q2 earnings, with Walmart’s gross profit up 1.6% year over year and Target lowering prices on over 10,000 items in the second quarter.

40 HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

Turn Benchmarks Into

Better Business The 2026 Cost of Doing Business Study shows you where you stand. NHPA Strategic Consulting helps you decide what to do next. Work one-on-one with trusted, NHPA-vetted industry experts to understand what’s driving your numbers, identify opportunities and build practical strategies to improve performance and profitability. Our consultants are seasoned professionals with real-world experience leading home improvement and paint and decorating operations. They understand the challenges independent retailers face and provide unbiased, practical guidance tailored to your business. Whether you’re looking to close performance gaps, strengthen operations or improve profitability, NHPA Strategic Consulting helps you turn industry insights into meaningful action.

From Insight → To Action → To Results

Why NHPA Strategic Consulting? Extensive Retail Experience Consultants have decades of experience in leadership roles at leading independent home improvement stores.

Specialized Retail Expertise Each consultant specializes in core areas that drive your business.

Proven Industry Leaders Consultants are renowned experts shaping NHPA’s programs, education and trade magazines.

Trusted NHPA Vetted Advisors Consultants are active in NHPA’s roundtables, guiding key industry discussions for independent retailers.

Mission Focused & Non-Biased Our consultants are impartial to any wholesalers, loyal only to your business. Ready to put your benchmarks to work? Scan the QR Code or visit YourNHPA.org/Consulting

NETWORK

Make a Plan CALENDAR

Visit YourNHPA.org/calendar to find more industry events online.

This index is provided for the convenience of our advertisers and readers. The publisher assumes no liability for errors or omissions.

Franklin International.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................7 franklininternational.com Midwest Fastener.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. IFC-1 fastenerconnection.com NHPA Cost of Doing Business Study........................................................................................................................................................................................ 11 YourNHPA.org/codb NHPA Foundations........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5 YourNHPA.org/foundations NHPA Strategic Consulting................................................................................................................................................................................................................41 YourNHPA.org/consulting NHPA RetailWise Plus.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... BC YourNHPA.org/retailwise Orgill.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................44-IBC orgill.com Pennsylvania Lumbermen’s Insurance............................................................................................................................................................................9 plmins.com

Industry Events OCT Hardlines Conference

LMC Expo

October 20-21 | OTTAWA, ON

October 28-30 | PHILADELPHIA, PA

Stay Informed Scan the QR code to see our full list of industry events. To add your event to the industry calendar, send an email to editorial@YourNHPA.org.

42 HARDWARE RETAILING | October 2026

INDUSTRY NEWS

All the High Points LAST WORD

Read all the highlights of the fall markets by subscribing to our daily newsletter at YourNHPA.org/subscribe.

Spring Into Action A Guide to Spring 2027 Market Season

he industry just wrapped up a successful fall market season, traveling to shows, networking with industry peers and stocking up on the best buys. On the heels of the fall markets, spring market season will be here soon, and it’s never too early to start preparing. Discover the lineup of markets set for the spring and what to expect at each event.

JANUARY 28-29, 2027 House-Hasson Hardware January Hardware Exchange

Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center Nashville, Tennessee

Music City is the backdrop for House-Hasson’s January Hardware Exchange, set to highlight product discounts, drop-ship deals, networking opportunities and the dealer’s signature Bonus Buy specials.

FEBRUARY 25-27, 2027 Orgill Dealer Market

Orange County Convention Center Orlando, Florida

One of five structured buying opportunities Orgill offers its customers throughout the year, the in-person Spring Dealer Market provides access to market-only buys, two live concept stores featuring new products and merchandise and sessions led by industry experts discussing the industry’s most pressing trends.

MARCH 5-7, 2027 Do it Best and True Value Spring Market Orange County Convention Center Orlando, Florida

Secure best buys and learn from the top industry professionals at the 2027 Do it Best and True Value Spring Market. In addition to the buzzing show floor, attendees can expect to hear from experts at Knowledge Central seminars and connect with industry peers.

MARCH 9-10, 2027 The Hardlines Supplier Event Las Vegas Convention Center Las Vegas, Nevada

The Hardlines Supplier Event brings together suppliers, manufacturers, private label partners and inventors from around the world in one sourcing trip. Attendees can expect to connect with supplier leaders, discover emerging brands and leave with the steps needed to push their businesses forward.

MARCH 14-16, 2027 Ace Hardware Spring Convention Georgia World Congress Center Atlanta, Georgia

Moving to a new location for the Spring event, Ace will host retailers in Atlanta to discover the latest products, explore market-only buying opportunities and network with industry leaders all in one space.

MARCH 18-20, 2027 Blish-Mize Spring Buying Market Overland Park Convention Center Overland Park, Kansas

Find innovative new products, programs and pricing at the Blish-Mize Fall Buying Market. See cost-saving specials and meet with industry-leading retailers in Overland Park.

October 2026 | HARDWARE RETAILING

orgill.com/success

See How We Can Help You Grow YOUR Business in YOUR Market, YOUR Way!

BECAUSE NO TWO RETAILERS ARE ALIKE There is never a single blueprint for success.

Orgill supports what makes your business unique by offering customizable programs and flexible solutions tailored to your specific needs.

Helping Our Customers Be Successful Since 1847

Orgill.com/opportunity | 800-347-2860 Ext. 5141 | customerservice@orgill.com

Have Questions? Contact Cody Goeppner at cgoeppner@YourNHPA.org

Increase Your Team’s Productivity NHPA’s RetailWise Plus delivers training to boost selling skills, tighten store operations, improve safety and more. The library of 365+ two-minute lessons are built for independent hardware, paint and lumber retailers to fit your schedule. No long classes, no complicated schedules. Increase your productivity, one lesson at a time.

WHAT’S NEW

365+ Microtraining Videos 14 Educational Categories 100% Device Accessibility Seasonal & Quarterly Updates

Subscribe Today! Scan the QR Code to sign up for RetailWise Plus or visit YourNHPA.org/retailwise.

Cody Goeppner Director of Education and Training, NHPA