Geelong and Wyndham labour market trends and initial analysis

Geelong and Wyndham labour market trends and initial analysis A report for Regional Development Australia Barwon South-West Division

April, 2013

Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Juturna Consulting PL for and on behalf of Regional Development Australia Barwon South-West Division. The information contained in this report has been prepared by Juturna Consulting PL from open source materials and data and analysis provided by a Victorian government agency (Regional Development Victoria) as well as stakeholder consultation. All reasonable attempts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this report, but Juturna Consulting reserves absolute discretion in updating or amending this document.

Comments and questions Mr Luke Fraser

Principal Juturna Consulting PL M 61 437 146 274 E juturnaconsulting@gmail.com W www.juturna.com.au Mr Peter Anderson

Regional Director Regional Delivery – Barwon South West Regional Development Victoria P 03 5223 2104 69 M 0408 354 763 E peter.o.anderson@dpcd.vic.gov.au

Executive summary This short analysis of labour market trends and forecasts for the Geelong and Wyndham areas suggests that there will be labour market challenges ahead for those anticipating major planned growth of these regions as a relieving strategy for Melbourne’s own population and infrastructure development.

Labour forecasts based on the Deloittes Access Economics Victorian Employment Trends Report (2013) suggest that both Wyndham and Geelong are in transition: Wyndham’s job mix is changing, and already, it is finding it somewhat harder to sustain it population in local employment. Job forecasts for Geelong are less positive, with locallevel analysis of the statewide trend suggesting that Geelong will become a slightly smaller

relative part of the Victorian labour market over the next decade.

This analysis has been commissioned by Regional Development Australia (Barwon South-West division, in coordination with Western Melbourne Division) not to offer conclusive answers, or question development objectives, but to attempt to provide some foundation research for Geelong and Wyndham that asks important questions of central planners seeking to pursue sustainable population growth strategies for these regions.

It is hoped that this will prompt further research and debate to promote the best outcomes for the people of these regions.

Background and approach to this study The cities of Geelong (City of Greater Geelong Local Government Area) and Werribee (Wyndham Local Government Area), to the west of Melbourne, are by modern standards both located ‘close’ to the state capital: Werribee is just over 30 kilometres from the Melbourne CBD and already classed as a ‘metropolitan fringe’ location; Geelong is around 80 kilometres distant. Traditionally, neither of these two places have shouldered the bulk of Melbourne’s population growth: instead, major Melbourne growth has tended to spread north, east and south east and within a closer western expansion. But this is changing.

Both Geelong and Wyndham are experiencing the sort of growth consistent with their proximity to the state capital and the relative affordability of land compared to other similarly distant locations from Melbourne in the north, east and southeast, as well as the perceived lifestyle benefits that a smaller population can offer.

More recently, state government policy announcements have made explicit that Geelong and Werribee are viewed as key factors to the future sustainable growth of Victoria and Melbourne: the forthcoming Melbourne Metro Strategy is expected to advocate the significant growth of Werribee as a centre of commerce and population, and Geelong has been identified by state planners as a key regional centre that will offset growth problems being experienced by the state capital.

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In this context, Regional Development Australia’s Barwon South West division - incorporating Geelong – commissioned Juturna Consulting PL to undertake some initial labour market analysis specific to the Geelong and Wyndham local government areas. This work was coordinated with Regional Development Australia Western Melbourne Division, which incorporates Werribee.

The intention of this work was to assess the health and trajectory of the labour market in these two cities, by reference to Australian Bureau of Statistics data as well as the Deloittes Access Economics Victorian Employment Projections report (2013) prepared for the Victorian Government.

In particular, it was felt that understanding Geelong and Wyndham’s relative share of forecast overall state employment growth for the next decade (by sector, extrapolated from the Deloittes Access Economics projections) would prove valuable as an insight for future planning and development considerations around these regional centres.

This report therefore offers a closer view of the employment sector’s recent history and projected future for the following regions: •• The City of Greater Geelong Statistical Division (ABS code LGA22750); and •• The City of Wyndham Statistical Division (ABS code LGA 27260)

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Focus: areas of recently available analysis that have sparked local interest The Deloittes Access Economics Victorian Employment Projections 2013 report presented some data and analysis that was of particular concern to the Barwon South-West and Western Melbourne Divisions of Regional Development Australia, as well as regional planning groups for Geelong and Wyndham such as G21 and Leadwest respectively:

Wyndham projected to lose more local jobs Wyndham was identified to have a growing gap between the population growth of the area and the employment availability in that area, leading to projected job migration back out of Wyndham for more of this region’s residents and the concomitant increased demand that this places on transport infrastructure:

‘(Outer metropolitan areas such as Wyndham)’ are also experiencing rapid population growth, such that the rising employment is not keeping pace with the likely labour force from the rising population numbers. In other words, the mismatch between local employees and local jobs will continue to widen’ (DeloittesAccess p.2)

Geelong’s labour market set to offer less value-added output in future?

The report also made the general observation that alongside an observed decline in traditional employment areas, in the decade ahead, regional areas of Victoria would likely see their job growth driven predominantly by employment sectors that perhaps might be less productive than traditional sectors – that is, their value added for every $100 of output might be less than some traditional sectors might have contributed in the past:

‘the main growth industry in regional Victoria will be health care and social assistance’ (DeloittesAccess Chptr3 P.4)

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Questions asked In light of the known intentions of the state government to see both Geelong and Wyndham become larger population and employment centres, this report sought to answer four basic questions about the labour trends and forecasts for Geelong and Wyndham, by undertaking further analysis:

1 2 3

4

What have been the recent historic trends in employment in Geelong and Wyndham?

What have been the recent trends in ‘local’ employment in these areas?

What have been the major employment sectors over the last decade or more in these areas, what share of these sectors have Geelong and Wyndham represented over time and are these sectors and shares changing?

What is the relative forecast share of projected total state job growth by sector for these areas in the decade ahead?

The intention of the clients was to evince underpinning employment trends and issues of concern for assumed growth strategies. That is, if Geelong and Wyndham were to experience significant additional population growth via state planning preference, were there any underlying labour market trends or issues within the forecasts in these areas that would create fundamental challenges to a higher population, or which at least would require further consideration and perhaps intervention from a local or state planning perspective?

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Questions and answers Question: What are the recent trends in employment in both Geelong and Wyndham and what have been their respective recent shares of the overall state workforce?

Methodology ABS census statistics by place of residence for the City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham Statistical Divisions (ABS codes LGA22750 and LGA 27260 respectively) were examined between 2001 census

and 2011 census (the 2013 ABS regional profile update was still not available to the report at the time this analysis was conducted).

Results Chart 1. Geelong and Wyndham working populations recorded in the 2001 census, 2006 census and 2011 census

Strong growth in working population

47

200,000180,000-

-46

140,000-45 120,000100,000-

-44

80,000-

43

-43

60,000-

172,657

77,257

95,400

139,672

53,524

86,148

116,749

39,253

20,000-

77,496

40,000-

0-

-42

Working population as share of population in Wyndham & Geelong (%)Â

46

160,000-

Working population (numbers)

-47

-41 2001

2006

2011

Census year Geelong

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Wyndham

Wyndham & Geelong

As share total population

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The size of both Geelong and Wyndham’s working populations grew between 2001-2011. This growth was real in the sense that relatively more of the population were employed in 2011 than 2001.

Geelong’s real working population growth over that time was 23.1%, but Wyndham’s was a much greater 96.8%: in a decade, Wyndham had virtually doubled the size of its working population.

A note of caution should be applied to these figures, however, as ABS definition of working population includes a very broad range of working hours – even incorporating those who work very few hours (ie part-timers) or identify as employed but who had not worked in the week prior to the survey (ie perhaps on some form of leave, etc):

Chart 2. Persons working in Geelong & Wyndham by hours worked in week prior to the 2011 census

Persons working in Geelong & Wyndham by hours worked in week prior to 2011 census 16,00015,00014,00013,00012,00011,000-

Persons employed

10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,000-

10,904 5,083

8,705 3,960

9,234 4,066

13,573 8,647

14,018 8,425

8,226 4,534

10,287 6,621

1,000-

3,314 1,421

2,000-

None

1-15 hours

16-24 hours

25-34 hours

35-39 hours

40 hours

41-48 hours

49 hours & over

894 645

3,000-

0-

Geelong

6

Not stated

Wyndham

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As a percentage share of total Victorian working population across this same period, Geelong grew modestly but then shrank (reversing net gains in

share in the mid-2000s), while Wyndham grew steadily:

Chart 3. Geelong & Wyndham’s percentage share of total Victorian employment 2001-11

4.0-

3.5

3.53.0-

3.3

3.2

2.5-

1.7

2.0-

1.8

1.51.0-

1.4

0.502001

2006 Geelong

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2011 Wyndham

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Question: What have been the recent trends in ‘local’ employment in these areas?

Methodology ABS census statistics on place of work for the City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham Statistical Divisions (ABS codes LGA22750 and LGA 27260 respectively) were examined between 2001 and 2011 (the 2013 ABS regional profile update was not available to the report at the time this analysis was

conducted). ABS data on working persons working in Geelong and Wyndham was divided by ABS data on working persons residing in Geelong and Wyndham to determine the approximate proportion of the working population resident in these regions that actually worked in the regions.

Results Chart 4. Percentage of employed Geelong and Wyndham people working in their own region 2001-2011

Employed persons working in the region they reside in (%) Geelong

100-

Wyndham

Wyndham & Geelong

908070-

Per cent

60504030-

71

56

83

80

69

87

80

69

10-

86

20-

02001

2006

2011

Census year This result suggests that while overall people employed in these regions increased between 2001-2011 – markedly so in Wyndham (see table 3 above) less people were working in jobs within their own region. This trend was remarked upon in the Deloittes Access Economics Victorian Employment Trends Forecast 2013 report for outer regional areas such as Wyndham. There is also a slight reduction in working people employed local to the Greater Geelong region. There may be a number of explanations for this – one logical one is that significant developments in the wider region around Geelong has drawn at least some City of Greater Geelong residents to employment only slightly

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further afield than the precise City of Greater Geelong statistical boundary. To an extent, this scenario might also hold for Wyndham. However, only further analysis would explain the trends in job location for Geelong and Wyndham-based workers.

At this point, what can be said is that in principle, the move away from an ability to provide sufficient local employment levels for residents suggests that Wyndham in particular is facing relatively higher transport infrastructure demands than it has in the past. It might be expected that significant population growth in this area would exacerbate this problem without a commensurate effort in stimulating local job production.

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Question: What have been the major employment sectors over the last decade or more in these areas, what share of these sectors have Geelong and Wyndham represented over time and are these sectors and shares changing?

Methodology figures for Geelong and Wyndham were then compared as share percentages of these sectors statewide.

ABS census statistics for the City of Greater Geelong and Wyndham (ABS codes LGA22750 and LGA 27260 respectively) were examined in combination between 2001 and 2011 The combined

Results Table 5. Top 5 industries of employment Geelong and Wyndham combined 20011

Top 5 industries of employment 2001, Wyndham & Geelong 20,000-

-7.0

18,000-

5.4

5.9

5.7 -6.0

-5.0

5.2

14,00012,00010,000-

Per cent jobs in Victoria

Jobs Wyndham & Geelong

16,000-

-4.0

4.2

-3.0

8,0006,000-

-2.0

10,241

16,901

17,153

0-

8,599

2,000-

5,405

4,000-

Construction

Education

Health & Community Services

Manufactoring

Retail Trade

Jobs Wyndham & Geelong

-1.0

-0

Share Victorian jobs

1. In 2001 the ABS data included “Personal and Other Services” together wheras in the 2011 data they were split into “Professional, scientific and technical services” and “Other services”. For the comparisons detailed in Charts 6 & 7 we assumed the 2011 clasification of services appled in 2001.

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Table 6: Top 5 industries of employment Geelong and Wyndham combined 2011

Top 5 industries of employment 2011, Wyndham & Geelong 20,000-

6.3 5.6

18,000-

6.1

6.4

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

14,00012,00010,000-

-4.0

4.3

-3.0

8,0006,000-

-2.0

Per cent jobs in Victoria

Jobs Wyndham & Geelong

16,000-

16,162

16,314

17,201

0-

12,579

2,000-

8,662

4,000-

Construction

Education

Health & Community Services

Manufactoring

Retail Trade

Jobs Wyndham & Geelong

The key stories in this analysis seem to be that health care and education are growing rapidly, but manufacturing declines. The two charts above also reveal that while the 5 major employment sectors for Geelong and Wyndham combined did not change for the decade between 2001-2011, together these areas represented a larger share of these state employment sectors overall. In this sense, all of these sectors became relatively more important to Geelong and Wyndham as labour markets over the past decade.

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-1.0

-0

Share Victorian jobs

The increased concentration of state manufacturing employment share in Geelong and Wyndham should be of concern given the broader challenges facing this sector This seems of particular concern on one particular front: manufacturing. The difficulties facing manufacturing nationally as well as regionally are well understood. Geelong in particular has a strong manufacturing base and acknowledged and continually emerging challenges in this area. That the past decade has seen the Geelong – Wyndham ‘area’ further concentrate its share of state manufacturing jobs would suggest that the ongoing difficulties that are forecast for this sector into the future will be felt more strongly now by these regions than they might have been even a little over a decade ago, in broad terms.

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Question: What is the relative forecast share of projected total state job growth by sector for these areas in the decade ahead?

Methodology The analysis drew on data and analysis from the Deloittes Access Economics Victorian Employment Trends report (2013) which employs both ABS statistics and Worksafe datasets, amongst several other inputs.

In the Deloittes study, sector employment growth projections to 2021 were derived including Geelong and Wyndham statistical areas and for Victoria as a whole. Employment across 19 major industries was provided.

These growth projections were examined against Deloittes Access Economics growth projections for the same sectors statewide to 2021.

Growth or shrinkage in Geelong and Wyndham job sector employment as a share of Victorian employment was then caculated as: share relative to the state economy (growth in G/W employment by sector – growth in VIC employment by sector)/ (100+ growth in VIC employment by sector)

Results Chart 7. Statewide projected employment growth by sector 2011-21

Deloitte Access Economics employment forecasts 2011 to 2021 (growth from 2011 - 2012) -100 -50

0

43 30

Professional, Scientific and Technical services

297

Health Care and Social Assistance

25 131

Education and Training

24 26 24 21 21 24 20 18 17 12 11

Administrative and Support Services Accommodation and Food Services Wholesale Trade Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Infomation Media and Telecommunications

86

Retail Trade

10 6 5 3 4 12 3 6 2 0 2 2 2 18 0

Other Services Transport, Postal and Warehousing Arts and Recreation Services Public Administrative and Safety Financial and Insurance Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services -5 -8 -11 -16 -39 -55

Construction Manufactoring Mining Greater Geelong (C)

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Wyndham (C)

-100 -50

0

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

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Wyndham’s job mix is changing; Geelong’s job sector is sluggish This chart shows the growth that is projected to occur in 19 key employment sectors over the decade ahead between 2011-21 as it is forecast to affect Geelong and Wyndham.

Wyndham employment sectors in all but one of the 19 categories are forecast to grow at more substantial rates than Geelong, as Wyndham’s greater proximity to the centre of Melbourne might anticipate. Some of the growth level disparity is quite marked, particularly in the forecast growth of health care and social assistance, education and training and retail trade, which far outstrip projected Geelong growth levels. Financial and insurance services sector is the only one where Geelong is expected to achieve a modestly better growth than Wyndham over the next decade.

Major growth for Wyndham is not in all of the major employment sectors of the past. Of the 5 most important employment sectors over the past decade (see charts above) only health care

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and social assistance, education and training and retail trade are projected to experience the more significant growth across the 19 sectors.

The two other major sectors in the decade past, manufacturing and construction, are both projected to shrink. This does not necessarily say that these sectors will not remain very significant, but they are not expected to grow, whereas others are.

Geelong’s growth is slower in almost every sector.

It is not expected to experience the very strong growth in health care and social assistance, education and training or retail trade that Wyndham’s projections suggest. In other respects, growth in employment is forecast to be slightly more modest across most sectors than Wyndham’s.

The following chart reveals how this forecast translates to Geelong and Wyndham employment as a share of the forecast total jobs in the state for the next decade, by sector.

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Chart 8: Geelong and Wyndham projected shift in share of statewide employment growth by sector 2011-21

Growth in share of Victorian employment accounted for by two regions (% growth in share from 2011 - 2012) -50

Professional, Scientific and Technical services

0

100

150

200

250

-6.4 -7.8 198.4

Health Care and Social Assistance

-3.1 78.0

Education and Training

-2.4 1.6 0.0 1.7 0.8

Administrative and Support Services Accommodation and Food Services Wholesale Trade Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

-1.6 -2.4 -0.8 -0.8 10.4 4.7

Infomation Media and Telecommunications

60.2

Retail Trade Other Services Transport, Postal and Warehousing

-2.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 0.0 -9.7 -8.8 -5.6 -1.9

Arts and Recreation Services Public Administrative and Safety

2.0 3.0 2

Financial and Insurance Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

2

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Construction Manufactoring Mining Greater Geelong (C)

50

Wyndham (C)

11.7 -2.9 -3.2 -3.2 -1.1 -3.4 -26.2 -26.2 -50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Overall, neither Geelong nor Wyndham are mirroring the statewide projected profile of employment growth in these 19 sectors entirely.

be noted that the smaller base of this sector here will affect the growth, as the statewide report also notes.

For Wyndham, the picture is somewhat more positive: the Deloittes Access Economics sector employment forecasts at the Wyndham level suggest this area will take a larger share of total sector employment for 8 of the 19 key sectors examined here. By some distance the greatest labour market share increase is projected to be in health care and social assistance, the share of which increases by nearly 200% - although it might

Both education and training and retail trade are other sectors in which Wyndham is projected to grow its share of state employment significantly.

Perhaps in keeping with an expected relocation of some more metropolitan businesses to the region, as well as some growth in the information media and telecommunications, electricity, gas and waste services, accommodation and food and administrative and support services is also forecast.

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Growth is also expected in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors. This is somewhat counterintuitive to the broader trends observed in the statewide forecasts, in which Deloittes – Access Economics notes that ‘there is a general shift towards the industries that are not as land intensive (where the employee per unit space is high, such as professional services and health care) and away from those that are land intensive (where the employee per unit space is low, such as mining, manufacturing and agriculture)’ (Deloittes Access Economics pii). However, the prevalence of more intensive horticulture activity (market gardening) in Wyndham might help to explain why Wyndham runs counter to this general trend; in any even these are also small numbers.

Geelong set to become a smaller part of future Victorian job market Geelong is projected to become a slightly smaller element of the state economy in overall job share terms. The prospect for share of state job growth in Geelong is not positive for most of the 19 sectors modelled. In fact, in 14 of the 19 sectors, Geelong is projected to lose share in overall jobs to other parts of the state; it is projected to hold its current share of 2 more sectors and it is projected to grow its share of the state employment task, modestly, in agriculture, forestry and fishing, information media and telecommunications sectors and accommodation and food services. Of particular concern for Geelong is the projected loss of state share of education and training employment – a projected 2.4% loss in share over the coming decade compared with a 78% projected increase in Wyndham’s future share of this sector.

Of concern to both Wyndham and Geelong is that its share of professional, scientific and technical services is projected to decrease over the next decade.

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Conclusions & recommendations for further analysis There are problems with the Geelong and Wyndham job market ‘story’ even prior to significant planned population growth occuring in these regions This report suggests that there are a number of labour trends in Geelong and Wyndham that are worthy of greater attention – and perhaps pause - from state and local planners anticipating largescale expansion of these areas, as particularly in Geelong, its share of state jobs is forecast to decline somewhat over the next decade. This initial analysis – taking into account as it does both some recent historical trends and respected forecasts for the labour market in Geelong and Wyndham - permits an improvement in the accuracy of the labour market ‘narrative’ for these two regions.

Underlying modelling assumptions for these labour trends need clarity The projected shares and growth rates of employment by sector should be approached with caution until further work has been completed by Geelong and Wyndham to more fully understand the systematic adjustment assumptions underpinning the Deloittes Access Economics Victorian Employment Trends report. As Deloittes Access Economics explains in its report:

‘Systematic adjustments of the projections... reflect local area factors not otherwise considered, including accounting for the known location and size of forthcoming investments across the economy and the State in the next decade (Deloittes Access Economics Methodology p.i)’ It would be useful to understand which if any Geelong or Wyndham-specific systematic adjustments were employed in the development of the statewide model. This could help to explain why some low or negative growth figures in Geelong in particular were projected. For instance, it is unclear whether the effects on Geelong’s professional scientific and technical services sector (the state share of which is projected to shrink by 7.8%) or its health and social assistance sector (state share of which is projected to shrunk by 3.1%) have incorporated through systemic adjustment the known development of the large Epworth teaching hospital in Waurn Ponds in the near future.

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Clarity around these forecast assumptions will allow Wyndham and Geelong to have confidence in the sectoral employment forecasts and this in turn will give the leaders of these places a sounder basis to engage with state government on planning and investment challenges ahead. It might be that a more thorough reflection of known employment developments in these regions will offer a better basis for understanding the true job market potential of Geelong and Wyndham over the coming decade.

This should be a core issue for infrastructure planners considering the likely emerging needs for these areas. At a basic level, it appears unlikely that major population growth in these areas will be met with a growth in local jobs. This is especially so in Geelong. Under these conditions, the newer, larger population of these areas will presumably need to commute further away for employment purposes.

This raises the prospect of higher transport infrastructure needs and greater congestion of that infrastructure at peak times.

Some of the growth and share outcomes for Geelong and Wyndham should be examined in the context of proposed significant population growth for these areas, with a focus on how local employment objectives might best be met

One solution would be greater attention on creating more localised employment for Geelong and Wyndham’s current labour forecasts suggest is likely. Another issue to consider is that of autonomy: Geelong in particular, in its development plans, has indicated it wishes to see itself remaining a separate and distinct regional city from Melbourne. Given the large population growth proposed by policy makers for the region (including Geelong planners, as seen in the latest G21 plan) it is hard to escape the conclusion that unless significant interventions are considered for the city to arrest the forecast shrinking labour share of Geelong, the autonomy of the city – at least, its ability to sustain a large amount of its population in local employment – will be lost over time, and Geelong will begin to resemble a commuter or ‘dormitory’ centre for a more Melbourne-centric labour market.

This report is therefore not by any means exhaustive in its analysis. However, it does offer some basic points that are worthy of consideration in the context of both Geelong and Wyndham being earmarked for significant population growth. In particular, Wyndham presents as a place where the job mix is changing, and where there are not enough local jobs to employ an increasing population, so that transport infrastructure is being put under greater strain.

Geelong in particular is forecast to be a job market in slight decline; major population growth plans need to be very carefully considered in light of that knowledge Geelong’s main challenge appears to be in slow growth in employment overall, at least relative to the rest of the state across most areas; indeed, it is projected to fall in absolute terms in several sectors across the coming decade, based on analysis of the Deloittes statewide labour trend forecasts.

When this is combined with known challenges ahead in its important manufacturing sector, careful consideration is warranted about the size and shape of population expansion that might be manageable for Geelong.

Overall, this brief research paper is intended to prompt thinking and further research and discussion around the overall health of the Geelong and Wyndham labour markets, and how these targets for population expansion might best be prepared to accommodate such expansion with healthy employment and infrastructure demand outcomes.

If high population growth did occur and Geelong’s underlying sluggish sector growth prospects were not addressed through some form of intervention, it might be expected that those relocating to Geelong would be forced to gain employment outside Geelong. This would replicate the recent trend observed in Wyndham, where more pressure is being felt on transport infrastructure.

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