Wyoming A&I

Economic Summary Report for Q1 2022

A new edition of the Wyoming Economic Summary Report is now available. This quarterly publication highlights the state’s economic conditions. The economic indicators discussed and graphically illustrated include: employment by industry, income, housing, taxable sales, tourism, agriculture, and selected revenue. The current report highlights data for the first quarter of 2022 (1Q22).

On the whole, Wyoming recorded approximately 9,000 or 3.3% more payroll jobs in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the prior year. Leisure and hospitality (mostly restaurant & lodging) led this growth with 3,100 (9.4%) more jobs.

As the Omicron wave of the pandemic faded, Wyoming’s economy continued to rebound in the first quarter, and the pace has accelerated. “With the surge in energy prices, particularly for petroleum, employment in the mining industry (including oil & gas extraction) showed a year-over-year increase of 8.4 percent, due to increased activities,” said Dr. Wenlin Liu, Chief Economist with Wyoming Division of Economic Analysis. Compared to the first quarter of 2020, the state’s total employment still lagged behind by 5,600 or 2.0%, mostly dragged down by the mining industry job loss (-4,200 or -21.3%). However, employment in retail trade and professional & business services had already surpassed the pre-COVID level by approximately 1,500 jobs, respectively. Leisure & hospitality, the largest private sector employer, also recovered to the pre-COVID level.

Total taxable sales grew 17.8 percent in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the prior year. This strong performance was mostly attributed to continued expansions in retail sales, leisure & hospitality services, and the robust rebound in mining. “Compared to the pre-COVID level of the first quarter of 2020, the mining industry was still down by 21 percent, but the state’s total taxable sales were 12 percent higher, attributed mainly to about a 28 percent expansion in retail trade and a 38 percent boost in leisure & hospitality.” “Heightened inflation has also played a

significant role for the strong growth.” Mineral severance taxes generated in the first quarter were substantially (46.4%) higher than a year ago, the first quarter amount was the largest since the third quarter of 2014. “The petroleum prices in the first quarter of 2022 were the highest since the second quarter of 2014, while natural gas prices were the highest since the third quarter of 2008.” “Though slightly slower than the U.S. average, Wyoming’s single-family home values continue to trend upward (16.8%) in the first quarter compared to a year ago and outperform expectations, supported by resilient demand (mostly driven by buyer urgency due to the expected rising mortgage rates) and continued supply constraint.”

Wyoming’s population continues to age fast

The elderly population (age 65 and over) in the state grew 3.6 percent between July 2020 and July 2021, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. In comparison, Wyoming’s total population only grew 0.3 percent during the same period. The median age (half of the population is younger, and the other half older) rose 0.3 to 38.9 years, while it increased from 38.5 to 38.8 from 2020 to 2021 for the U.S. The figure indicates that the aging of both the U.S. and Wyoming’s population has been speedy. “Though the impact from Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) aging was the main reason, outmigration of young people and decline in fertility rate also played roles,” said Dr. Wenlin Liu, Chief Economist with the State of Wyoming, Economic Analysis Division. “Ever since the first Baby Boomers turned 65 years old in 2011, there has been a rapid increase in the size of the older population.” Even with the fast aging, Wyoming’s median age still ranked in the middle compared to other states in 2021.

Wyoming has one of the highest proportions of the Baby Boom (age 57-75 in 2021) population, and one of the lowest proportion of Generation X (age 41 to 56 in 2021) in the country. For example, the number of residents age 45-54 was about 13,000 (or 16.8%) less than age 60-69 group. “Wyoming does not have sufficient resident workers to replace retiring Boomers in normal economic conditions,” Liu said. “Wyoming’s demographic transition and labor market environment provides excellent opportunity and encouragement for unemployed residents who are looking for jobs within the state as many Baby Boomers are exiting the labor force,” Liu commented. Wyoming’s population age 65 and older increased from 70,090 in 2010 to 103,877 in 2021, or 48.2 percent, higher than the U.S. growth rate of 38.7 percent during the same period. The share of the State’s elderly population (65 and over) was 17.9 percent in 2021, higher than the U.S. level of 16.8 percent. The elderly population in Wyoming is projected to reach 135,000, or well over one-fifth of the state’s total residents by 2030 when all Baby Boomers will be in this age group.

Since 2020, the population under 18 years decreased 1.0 percent where pre-school children (under 5 years) declined 3.3 percent. The age 18-64 group dropped slightly, -0.2 percent during the year. Wyoming’s total minority population reached 96,483 in July 2021. Minority is defined as any group other than single-race, Non-Hispanic White. The growth of minorities was 1,179 persons, or 1.2 percent, compared with 0.3 percent increase for the State’s total population. In fact, it’s the addition of the minority population that contributes to all the state’s population growth since 2010. Hispanic was the largest minority group with 61,087 in July 2021, an annual increase of 1.5 percent. The Black or African-American population remained the same as in July 2020, at 6,016. Other minority races, such as American Indian and Asian declined slightly, while Two-or-More Races recorded 3.1 percent growth. The majority, Non-Hispanic White, grew only 0.1 percent. With 16.7 percent of the State’s total population, the proportion of minorities in Wyoming was still ranked the 8th lowest in the nation, while 40.7 percent of U.S. residents are minorities. “Both the nation and Wyoming’s population continue to grow in racial and ethnic diversity,” said Dr. Liu.

The U.S. Census Bureau also released 2021 county population estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Here are some highlights: • The Black or African-American population in Hot Springs

County in 2021 was 31.0 percent higher than a year ago. Big

Horn, Platte, and Washakie counties also experienced growth rates of over 7.0 percent, each, during the year. • The Hispanic population increased the fastest in Crook

County, at 10.4 percent between 2020 and 2021, followed by

Weston and Sheridan counties at 9.9 and 8.7 percent, respectively. • Fremont County had the highest percentage minority population in 2021 at 30.9 percent, dominated by American

Indian population, followed by Carbon (23.9%), Laramie (22.2%), and Sweetwater (20.9%) counties where most of the minority population was Hispanic. • The largest county, Laramie, also had the largest minority population in 2021, including 15,638 Hispanic, 2,168 African-American, 1,215 Asian, and 2,600 Two or More Races. They comprise 25.6 percent, 36.0 percent, 21.0 percent, and 23.5 percent of the state’s total Hispanic, Black, Asian, and

Two or More Races population, respectively. • Counties with the smallest proportion of minority population in 2021 were Crook (6.2%), followed by Lincoln (8.3%). • The State’s oldest county was Hot Springs, with median age of 48.7, and 28.1 percent of its population was 65 and over in 2021. Other counties with a higher proportion of elderly population (65 and over) were Johnson (26.6%), Platte (26.5%), and Park (24.9%). These counties tend to have the smallest proportion of children population and their median ages were all higher than 45.0 years. • The youngest county was Albany, with median age of 28.9 in 2021, followed by Campbell (36.0), Sweetwater (37.1), and

Uinta (37.5). The median age in the state’s two largest counties, Laramie and Natrona, was 37.9 and 38.1 years each. • Crook and Campbell counties had the highest percentage of preschool (under 5 years) population (6.9% and 6.6% each) in 2021, followed by Fremont (6.2%), and Uinta (6.1%). The proportion was 5.6 percent Statewide in 2021. • Campbell County had the lowest percentage of population age 65 or older, at 12.2 percent, followed by Albany (13.0%) and Sweetwater (14.1%) counties.

Highlights from A&I’s “Wyoming Insight”

(1) Oil prices stay above $100 for fourth consecutive month; natural gas prices still over $7/MMBtu. (2) Sales and use tax revenues from the mining sector continue to improve. (3) Oil and gas employment still down big compared to pre-pandemic levels. (4) Total and mining employment still down compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The full issue of Wyoming Insight is available at the State of Wyoming’s Economic Analysis Division’s website at http://eadiv. state.wy.us/. The Wyoming Insight serves as an energy and business indicator report for the state. n