When the first casualty of war is truth

America are unconvinced by the call for a great war between good and evil.

As Kishore Mahbubani noted, the West would get more support “if it was seen to be pushing for either a peace proposal or a fair compromise”. He was echoed by Namibian Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila at the recent Munich Security Conference:

“ e bottom line is that money used to buy weapons would be better used to promote development in Ukraine, in Africa, in Asia, in the EU itself where many people are su ering hardships.”

A recent policy brief by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) provides stark evidence of a growing distance between the West and the rest, a surge in self-assertiveness across the Global South and signals that America’s era of unchallenged global dominance may be in decline. is scepticism has its roots in dismay over the West’s failures to support developing economies to adjust to climate change and to provide lifesaving support through the pandemic. ere are also residual memories of European colonialism, and America’s 50-year track record of ruinous and expensive proxy wars, from Vietnam to Afghanistan. e ECFR brief also found that most respondents foresee a steep decline in the US-led liberal order over the coming decade – even those across the West. Western respondents tended to predict a transition to a bipolar world split between the US and China, but in contrast, majorities in the Global South expect a fragmentation into a multipolar world.

“ e West may be more consolidated now, but it is not necessarily more in uential,” the ECFR observed. “Its consolidation has come at a moment when other powers will not simply do as it wishes.

In an extensive survey jointly commissioned by the ECFR, most respondents in India, Turkey, Russia and China felt the Ukraine war needed to stop as soon as possible. While Russia is seen overwhelmingly as an adversary or rival in the US (71%) and the European Union (66%), more than half of Indian respondents still see Russia as an ally, with a further 29% de ning Russia as a “necessary partner”.

A comparatively modest 35% of Chinese respondents saw Russia as an ally – not insignicant when the US is pulling out all stops to demonise China as a unique global threat.

“ e US and the EU may feel inclined to view countries such as India and Turkey as swing states that can be cajoled into siding with the West. But people in those countries see themselves very di erently,” the ECFR concluded. “Rather than expecting them to support Western e orts to defend the fading post-Cold War order, we need to be ready to partner with them in building a new one.”

To India, Turkey and China should be added Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Nigeria and others who perceive themselves as middle powers – not as globally in uential as the US, but “certainly not content to adjust to the whims and plans of the superpowers”.